Backfield Breakdown: RB Usage Report & Week 8 Waivers Preview

Kyren Williams, Tony Pollard, Jordan Mason, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard and Breece Hall all topped 80 percent snap share Week 7, but there was only one other RB (Aaron Jones) to reach 70 percent. Alexander Mattison, Bijan Robinson, Joe Mixon, J.K. Dobbins, Josh Jacobs, Tyrone Tracy and Tank Bigsby were above 65 percent, with all besides Dobbins and Tracy having big fantasy scores to show for it. 

Week 7 featured a lot of strong fantasy performances from RBs and hardly any from WRs, marking a return to what we saw in September after Weeks 5-6 were more WR/passing-oriented. There will still be a lot of variance there from week to week, but it's generally been a much better year for top RBs than it has been for the high-end WRs and TEs. This may even be the most RB-driven fantasy season of the past decade, albeit without a uniquely dominant force like peak Christian McCaffrey (or LaDainian Tomlinson / Priest Holmes / Marshall Faulk).

Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

RB David Montgomery (ankle)

It was a light week for RB injuries but a brutal week for other positions, namely WR. Montgomery briefly left Sunday's win over Minnesota in the first quarter but returned not long after. No other injuries to fantasy-relevant RBs were reported Sunday or Monday.

Missed Week 7

Jonathan Taylor (high ankle / day-to-day)

Travis Etienne (hamstring / week-to-week)

Jerome Ford (hamstring / week-to-week)

Tyjae Spears (hamstring / week-to-week)

Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle / week-to-week)

Colts coach Shane Steichen said Monday that he's optimistic Taylor will resume practicing this week. Etienne and Spears may also be back soon, while there hasn't been much indication of how Ford is doing. (Etienne managed limited practices last week, and Spears' coach suggested Monday that he could be back this week.)

Jonathon Brooks (NFI - knee / could play Week 8 or 9)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness / could play Week 8 or 9)

MarShawn Lloyd (IR - ankle / eligible since Week 6)

Christian McCaffrey (IR - Achilles / likely out until Week 10)

Gus Edwards (ankle / out until at least Week 10)

Isiah Pacheco (fibula / out until at least November)

Edwards-Helaire was activated from injured reserve last week but made inactive for the win at San Francisco. Brooks may well be the next RB to come off an injury list, but it's unclear if it'll happen this week or next. McCaffrey, on the other hand, is presumably out through the 49ers' Week 9 bye, with coach Kyle Shanahan saying Monday that CMC isn't likely to resume practicing this week. Shanahan did say things are going well and McCaffrey may be ready after the bye.

Stock Report 📊

A lot of what you'll see here is building on my work from Box Score Breakdown, the weekly recap article with stat tables for every team that include snaps, routes, and target/air-yard shares, in addition to all the basic stats like carries, catches, yards and TDs. I also discuss role specifics and make note of various circumstances that could cause numbers to be misleading, so it's worth checking out if you're looking to go into even more detail on running backs before making waiver adds or lineup decisions for the upcoming week. Unless otherwise specified, all the stats below are from the current week only (full season stats are denoted by 'SZN').

Note: Opps. = carries + targets    

Trending Up 📈

Breece Hall - 80+ percent snap share back-to-back weeks, 41 touches past 2 games

Joe Mixon - W7: 69% snaps, 28 of 32 RB opps., 124 total yards + 2 TDs

Aaron Jones - W7: 77% snaps, 17 of 19 RB opps., 116 total yards + TD

Josh Jacobs - three straight games w/ 17-21 touches and 90-94 total yards

Tank Bigsby - W7: 66% snaps, 27 of 40 RB opps., 118 total yards + 2 TDs

Nick Chubb - 65% snaps pre-Q4, 14 of 22 RB opps.

Javonte Williams - 3 straight games w/ 60+ percent snaps  /  W7: 111 total yards + 2 TDs

Alexander Mattison - 69% snaps, 26 of 30 RB opps, 123 total yards

Chase Brown - W7: 58% snaps, 17 of 26 RB opps  / out-snapped Moss two weeks running

Tyrone Tracy - W7: 67% snaps, nine of 17 RB opps.

Tyler Goodson - W7: 48% snaps, 14 of 23 RB opps., 51 total yards + TD

Jaylen Warren - W7: 50% snaps, 53% routes, 15 of 37 RB opps., 59 total yards

Trending Down 📉

Zack Moss - W7: 49% snaps, nine of 26 RB opps.

Ray Davis - W7: 22% snaps, six of 19 RB opps. (but w/ 47 total yards + TD)

Devin Singletary - W7: 22% snaps, six of 17 RB opps.

Brian Robinson - W7: 40% snaps, 12 of 19 RB opps. before fourth quarter

Sean Tucker - W7: 19% snaps, seven of 35 RB opps.

Davis scored a late touchdown but played only 22% percent of snaps, with James Cook returning to his usual role after missing the previous game with a foot/toe injury. Davis is still well worth rostering, but any hope that he'd forced more of a timeshare appears not to have panned out, at least for now.

Unsettled Backfields 🎲

These are the backfields that need to be monitored closely, where role changes could be imminent or we aren't sure about the team's depth chart moving forward. Backfield with a clear hierarchy/order won't be included unless there's a long-term injury to the starter and the backup situation is uncertain or confusing. 

Messy Backfields

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. New York Giants
3. Dallas Cowboys

Heading into this past week, there was a lot of discussion among fantasy players about how workloads would be divided between young RBs that had been playing well and the veteran starters on their teams that were nearing returns from injuries. Rachaad White, Devin Singletary and James Cook all ended up returning from their absences, with different outcomes in each case.

Singletary played just 22% of snaps and took six touches for 21 yards, while rookie Tyrone Tracy got 67% of snaps and took nine touches for 32 yards. The gap in touches/production was obviously much smaller than the playing-time divide, which suggests Singletary could take on more of the carries in his second game back from injury this coming Monday at Pittsburgh (a tough matchup for the entire Giants offense). I wouldn't want to be starting either Big Blue RB this week, but both should be rostered in all formats.

Rachaad White had a much better game than Singletary, scoring a season-high 29.1 PPR points behind a 6-71-2 receiving line, but White got only 10 of the 24 RB carries (and also ceded five of the 11 targets to Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker). Tucker, the Week 6 sensation, was the No. 3 guy in Monday's loss to Baltimore, playing just 19% of snaps and taking five of the 24 RB carries (plus a pair of targets on the final drive). White got the most playing time (47% snaps) and touches (16) to back his huge fantasy performance, but Irving wasn't too far behind (36% snaps, 12 touches, 77 total yards, one rushing TD). For now, it's hard to trust any of them as a fantasy starter, even if the Bucs likely will emphasize the RBs even more in the absence of WRs Chris Godwin (leg) and Mike Evans (hamstring). They'll also probably score fewer points without their star WRs.

On the Brink

1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Carolina Panthers

Chase Brown clearly moved ahead of Zack Moss the past two weeks, but the Bengals still prefer Moss in passing situations and thus still have him on the field quite a bit. While Brown is the much better fantasy play right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see him flub the job back to Moss. 

Tank Bigsby had his third big game of the season, and this time it was on a career-high 66% of snaps with Travis Etienne inactive due to a hamstring injury. Etienne's hamstring injury doesn't seem overly serious, and Jags coach Doug Pederson said he still views ETN as the starter once he's healthy. Of course, starting a game doesn't mean you'll be the one to get the most carries, and Bigsby has made a case for himself as the lead runner even if Etienne is a better all-around player.

Chuba Hubbard is dominating snaps and touches in Carolina, but Jonathan Brooks (ACL) returned to practice last week and may be cleared to play Week 8 or 9. Hubbard won't lose the starting job or lead role, but his snap shares like will drop from the 80% range we've seen lately, and he could lose some of the garbage-time work he's feasted on in Carolina's many blowouts. With playoffs out of the question and Hubbard in the final season of his rookie contract, the Panthers would be wise to lighten up the workloads and try to keep him healthy, be it for contract-extension reasons or compensation-pick-formula reasons. Hubbard has shown enough that he should have an opportunity at a starting job elsewhere if he becomes a free agent in the spring. Plus, the Panthers presumably want to see what they have in Brooks... although a large workload isn't necessary to find that out.

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

If you're looking for a more comprehensive waivers article, RW's Kevin Payne has you covered. Here we're just taking a quick look at some RBs to target based on the work contained in this article and Monday's Box Score Breakdown. 

In order to qualify, the RB needs to be rostered in no more than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Potential Short-Term Starters

1. Alexander Mattison - 54%
2. Tyrone Tracy - 57% 
3. Jaylen Warren - 41%
4. Tyler Goodson - 14%
5. Justice Hill - 18%
6. Ezekiel Elliott - 24%
7. D'Ernest Johnson - 7% 
8. Trey Sermon - 35%

The lack of (known) RB injuries from Week 7 means it's a rough week to find waiver help. Mattison and Tracy are already rostered in a vast majority of competitive leagues, and Goodson and Sermon lose their limited appeal if Jonathan Taylor (ankle) makes it back for Sunday's matchup with a tough Houston defense. For a lot of people, the best options will be guys like Warren, Hill, and Johnson who figure to see the bulk of their work on pass snaps. Warren just got his best workload of the year in Russell Wilson's first start, but he's only available in shallow leagues for the most part. For those that aren't desperate for RB help, this is a good week to prioritize top handcuffs over short-term help. Or maybe injury reports throughout the week will open up an opportunity... TBD.

Bench Stashes

1. Tyler Allgeier - 39%
2. Kimani Vidal - 15%
3. Blake Corum - 16% 
4. Ray Davis - 26% 
5. Braelon Allen - 41%
6. Trey Benson - 18%
7. Roschon Johnson - 15%
8. Emanuel Wilson - 8%
9. Tyjae Spears - 49% (hamstring)
10. Dameon Pierce - 7% 
11. Sean Tucker - 20%
12. Jaylen Wright - 8%
13. Antonio Gibson - 36%
14. Khalil Herbert - 7%
15. Isaac Guerendo - 20%
16. Kendre Miller - 4%
17. Kenneth Gainwell - 1%
18. Audric Estime - 1%

Nearly all of these are injury-dependent, although Allgeier also has some stand-alone value for deeper leagues and/or desperate situations. Herbert is included due to the possibility he's traded, and Miller is listed in case Alvin Kamara gets traded. Not that I expect either of those things to happen, but it wouldn't be surprising, would it?

Drop Candidates

1. Jerome Ford - 52% (shallow leagues)
2. Zamir White - 36%
3. Sean Tucker - 20% (shallow leagues)
4. Jaleel McLaughlin - 15%
5. Cam Akers - 8%
6. Samaje Perine - 6%