Beating The Book

Last week wasn't great -- 7-8 ATS, lost my third-straight best bet (Colts) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest.

This week, I especially like the Bears, Broncos, Dolphins and Patriots. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Cowboys -4.5 at Saints

Both teams have played poorly of late, but the Saints could get Taysom Hill back, and that's probably enough given the decent-sized line at home. Take the points. 

Cowboys 24 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Vikings -7 at Lions

Dalvin Cook is an important player for the Vikings, but so is D'Andre Swift for the Lions. Jared Goff looked healthy on Thanksgiving though, the Lions will have had 10 days off and the Vikings pass defense is beatable.  Take the points. 

Vikings 24 - 20

Cardinals -7.5 at Bears

We don't yet know whether Kyler Murray will play, and this is a big number in any event to lay on the road in what could be a bad weather environment. Take the points. 

Cardinals 23 - 20

Buccaneers -11 at Falcons

The Bucs could destroy the Falcons, but 11 is a massive line in a divisional road game. Take the Falcons. 

Buccaneers 27 - 17

Colts -9 at Texans

I had the Texans based on my numbers, but the Colts are a bully team that should be able to pull away late behind their running game. Lay the wood. 

Colts 31 - 20

Eagles -6.5 at Jets

Jalen Hurts' status is in question, but Gardner Minshew is a capable backup, and the Eagles should handle the Zach Wilson Jets. Lay the wood. 

Eagles 27 - 17

Chargers +3 at Bengals

I've faded the Bengals the last two weeks at my peril, and I'm sure they'll lay an egg now that I'm back on them, but give me the team that can run the ball in a cold weather game. Lay the wood. 

Bengals 24 - 20

Giants +5 at Dolphins

The Giants make for a scrappy underdog, but the Dolphins are the mini-Patriots right now, getting better as the year goes on, and Mike Glennon is a below average backup. Lay the wood. 

Dolphins 27 - 13

LATE GAMES

Team +2.5 at Raiders

The Team is on a roll of late, but this is short-week, cross-country trip, while the Raiders have had 10 days off from Thanksgiving. Take the Raiders. 

Raiders 26 - 20

Ravens -4.5 at Steelers

The Steelers have been terrible the last few weeks, and now T.J. Watt is on the Covid list and at risk of missing the game. Still, I'll take the points in a game between two bitter rivals. 

Ravens 23 - 20

Jaguars +13 at Rams

The Jaguars have shown small signs of improvement -- Trevor Lawrence scrambled well against the Falcons, and Jacksonville has been decent at stopping the run. Take the points. 

Rams 27 - 16

49ers -3.5 at Seahawks

These teams are going in opposite directions, and Russell Wilson looks terrible, but give me the home dog as I go back to the well one more time. Take the Seahawks. 

49ers 27 - 24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Broncos +10 at Chiefs

The Chiefs have turned a corner defensively of late, but the Broncos are also solid defensively, and I expect them to hang around. Take the points. 

Chiefs 26 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Patriots +2.5 at Bills

I liked this better when the Patriots were getting the full three, but I'm still on New England until someone covers against them. Take the points. 

Patriots 23 - 20

Last week, I went into 7-8 ATS to go to 87-90-3 on the year, lost my best bet (Colts) to go to 9-3, and went 2-3 in the SuperContest to go 30-29-1.  Last year my record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. In 2019, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.