Beating the Book: NFL Week 16 Game Picks

Welcome to the NFL Week 16 edition of Beating the Book!

After a couple of shaky weeks, we went 10-6 ATS in Week 15 to put the locomotive back on the rails, if you will. While our best bets continue to be a letdown – Washington… come on, fellas – we'll look to get back on the right side of things in what's shaping up to be a tricky Week 16.

As of publication, two teams sit as double-digit home favorites: The Bills are giving 14.0 to New England, while the Packers are also up to 14.0-point favorites over Spencer Rattler and the Saints on Monday night. Meanwhile, Michael Penix will make his starting debut as an 8.5-point favorite at home against the lowly Giants, while the Bengals are also laying northing of a touchdown against Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the Browns.

On the other end of the spectrum, seven games currently carry a number of 3.0 or shorter, beginning with the Thursday Night Football showdown between two AFC West rivals. 

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Week 16 slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 15:

• Texans -2.5 vs. Dolphins: This was a tough game to evaluate, but the evaporation of the Miami running game has been an under-covered storyline that's really limited the effectiveness of the Dolphins' offense.
• Packers -2.5 at Seahawks: While Seattle drew plenty of interest in the market, we felt the Seahawks were a bit overvalued coming out of their Week 14 win over Arizona. 

Worst calls of Week 15:

• Panthers -2.5 vs. Cowboys: I'll admit I got swept up in the recent upswell of Panthers optimism, but it was clear early on that Dallas was the side.
• Steelers +5.5 at Eagles: While the Eagles made some early mistakes that allowed Pittsburgh to hang around, we should have known this Steelers' offense is simply too limited without George Pickens.

Last week: 10-6 ATS; 13-3 SU; best bet lost (WAS -7.0)

On the season: 116-105-3 ATS; 155-69 SU; 5-8-2 best bets

Thursday Night Football

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: Chargers -2.5

Total: 42.5

Both teams should feel good about their playoff chances, with the Chargers holding a 2.0-game lead over the Colts, Dolphins and Bengals, but this game has major implications as far as seeding – i.e. dodging the Bills (or Chiefs) -- is concerned.

The Chargers are coming off of a disappointing home loss to Tampa Bay last week – a game they led at the half before being outscored 27-0 over the final two quarters. Injuries seem to be catching up to Los Angeles, which has dropped three of its last four and has scored exactly 17 points in three straight. During that four-game span, the Chargers' running game has been non-existent. They bottomed out with just 32 yards on the ground against Tampa.

Meanwhile, Denver comes in on a four-game winning streak, though the last three wins – over Vegas, Cleveland and Indy – haven't exactly been convincing. Denver has won each of those games by multiple scores, but the defense looked shaky against Cleveland, while Bo Nix looked like Week 1 Bo Nix in last week's bizarre win over the Colts, who gave that game away more than Denver won it.

Either way, the Broncos have rounded into a dependable ATS team (NFL-best 11-3 ATS) that simply finds ways to win games, even when things aren't trending in their favor.

Playing at home, and already holding a road win at Denver in their pocket, we'll cautiously take the Chargers to win a close game outright, but Denver can cover.

The pick: Chargers 23 – Broncos 21

Saturday Double Feature

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -3.0

Total: 41.5

The first of two Saturday games takes us to Arrowhead, where the Chiefs have a major question mark at quarterback. The initial line (Texans -2.5) implied that Patrick Mahomes won't be out there, but Mahomes allegedly practiced in full on Tuesday, and we immediately saw a strong shift toward Kansas City.

Obviously, there's still a chance KC could pull the rug out and opt to play it safe with Mahomes, but it looks as though he'll push through the ankle injury that knocked him out of last week's win over Cleveland. Prior to that Week 15 win and cover, the Chiefs had lost seven in a row against the number. Credit to the Chiefs, I guess, for breaking the streak, but the result was not nearly as convincing as it should have been, given that Cleveland turned it over six (6) times and never even reached the red zone.

Even with Mahomes at full health, this has been a conservative offense that really struggles to generate chunk plays on a weekly basis. A hobbled Mahomes is clearly better than Carson Wentz, but I'm not sure the Chiefs have a switch to flip when it comes to the lack of explosives.

On the Houston side, the Texans defense carried them to a win over Miami last week, but the offense managed just 181 total yards – its lowest output of the season. At this point, I'm not sure the Texans offense can turn things around, but the defense has forced at least one turnover in nine straight games and multiple turnovers in seven of those.

With temperatures in the mid-30s, I see this as a low-scoring game in which both sides struggle to consistently move the ball. We'll side with the Chiefs to grind out yet another narrow victory, but the U41.0 is my biggest lean.

The pick: Chiefs 21 – Texans 17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -6.0

Total: 45.5

First and foremost, we'll need to check in on some major injury question marks on the Pittsburgh side. George Pickens has missed two consecutive games and is questionable to return this week, while T.J. Watt picked up an injury late in last week's loss to the Eagles. The early indication is that Watt has dodged anything major, but it's still possible he could miss time in the short term.

Setting that aside, this is a huge spot for Baltimore as it looks to wrestle back control of the AFC North. Pittsburgh, of course, won the first matchup, holding Derrick Henry to just 65 rushing yards and forcing three Baltimore turnovers. Two missed field goals by Justin Tucker were also a major factor, while Chris Boswell – who may be the new best kicker in football – accounted for all 18 of Pittsburgh's points. 

This time around, I expect Baltimore to come in better prepared for the Steelers' physicality. In the first meeting, the Ravens got off to a worst-case-scenario start. Henry fumbled on the second play from scrimmage, and Baltimore's next five drives went as such: punt, missed field goal, missed field goal, punt, punt. Baltimore even fumbled again late in the second quarter – Isaiah Likely this time – to hand Pittsburgh three more points before the half.

All of this is to say, the Ravens played perhaps their worst offensive game of the season and still managed to lose by only two to a Steelers team that was rolling at the time.

Even with the injuries, I certainly wouldn't expect the Steelers to come out flat, but this is a revenge spot for Baltimore, which has been the better team, on balance, this season. If Pickens is out, the Steelers' offense is essentially devoid of any big-play threats. If he's in, we may consider flipping the pick, but as things currently stand, I like the Ravens to win by a touchdown.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Steelers 20

Sunday Early Slate

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -7.5

Total: 47.5

With the news that the Browns will roll out Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback this week, we've seen this line jump from 6.5 up to 7.5. It actually opened at 5.5 on Sunday night before being quickly bet up.

Anyway, the Browns had apparently seen enough from Jameis Winston after a three-interception performance against Kansas City last week. White Winston infused a spark into a dormant offense, it's tough to argue with the decision after Cleveland put up 21 combined points in its last two games amid five Jameis picks.

Even so, it's tough to view Thompson-Robinson as a notable upgrade. He's certainly more mobile, but in his three starts in 2023, DTR only logged 12 carries and threw four picks to just one touchdown. In those three games, the Browns managed 12, 13 and 3 points, respectively.

More than anything, I like the U47.5 here – a dangerous number for the Bengals, I know – with the idea that Cleveland will go run-heavy and its defense can keep the Cincy offense under control. The Bengals have plenty of defensive flaws that give me some pause here, but we'll take them to cover the touchdown-plus at home and hang around on the outermost fringes of the AFC playoff picture.

The pick: Bengals 27 – Browns 17

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -8.5

Total: 42.5

When I initially wrote up this game, the Falcons were 10.5-point home favorites. Suffice it to say some things have changed, as Atlanta will roll with Michael Penix over Kirk Cousins. After Monday night's win over the Raiders, Raheem Morris dropped some hints, and the change was officially announced Tuesday night.

In the time since, we've seen the Falcons move to 8.5-point favorites, while the total has remained static at 41.5. Given the general optimism around Penix – or perhaps the Cousins-based pessimism – the line movement is interesting, but I think it makes sense. Most are assuming Penix will be an instant upgrade, and while that's certainly possible, we need to keep in mind that he's still making his first NFL start.

Of course, Penix has a bevy of experience at the college level, and he's had the advantage of observing for much of the season, but we can't take for granted that he's a true upgrade over Cousins until we actually see it. From a mobility standpoint, Penix is a clear upgrade, and I'll be curious to see how much the Falcons try to take advantage of that. But given that it's his debut, we could see a more conservative approach.

On the other side, Drew Lock appears to be tracking as the Giants' starter after returning to practice Wednesday. With Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle, God bless his soul, sitting as the other options, Lock still feels like the lesser-est of the three evils. 

With so many variables, this is trending toward stay-away territory for me, but lord knows we don't have that option here at Beating the Book. Give me the Giants to find a way to cover in Penix's debut. They won't win, but I think Penix could be just shaky enough to keep New York in the game.

The pick: Falcons 23 – Giants 16

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Cardinals -4.0

Total: 47.0

Sneaky-fun game in Charlotte as the Panthers look to bounce back from a major letdown last week against Dallas. While Bryce Young was a turnover machine in Week 15, I still see this Panthers team as a tough out on a weekly basis, due in large part to Young's overall improvement from the start of the season.

But Arizona comes into this game fully motivated and still very much alive for a playoff berth. It could be a look-ahead spot with a showdown in LA looming next week, but I like Arizona to run James Conner 15-to-20 times against a defense that's given up 211, 209 and 236 rushing yards over the last three weeks.

It may not be pretty, but the Cardinals win and cover.

The pick: Cardinals 27 – Panthers 22

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Spread: Lions -6.5

Total: 47.5

Interesting spot here for Detroit, as sentiment seems to have officially shifted toward the idea that the Lions' injuries may have finally reached a critical mass. The defense, in particular, has been decimated, while Detroit also lost David Montgomery for the season in last week's loss to Buffalo.

Long-term, I can buy into that narrative, but Detroit still has enough offensive firepower to take care of business against a team like Chicago, which has scored more than 20 points once in its last eight games.

The Bears did take the Lions to overtime on Thanksgiving Day – and did the same to Minnesota a week prior – but much like the second meeting with Minnesota in Week 15, I think we see Detroit exert its will.

The pick: Lions 28 – Bears 20

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Colts -3.5

Total: 42.5

Alright, we're going to go ahead and slap the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week label on this one. I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen in Indy on Sunday. Do the Colts pick themselves up off the mat after a mistake spree in Denver? Do they pack it in for the season with their playoff hopes (likely) dashed? Nothing would surprise me.

I don't know that there's even any merit in trying to break down the Titans' side of things. Tennessee was gifted a couple of early turnovers last week against Cincy, yet still found a way to commit six (6) turnovers of their own – four of which were charged to Will Levis before he was mercifully pulled from the game in the third quarter.

My guess is the Titans roll with Mason Rudolph this week – he also threw a pick against Cincy – and there's an argument to be made that he provides a slightly higher floor than Levis. I do trust Tennessee's run defense to slow down Jonathan Taylor, just as it did in the first meeting between these teams back in Week 6.

Taking the Titans to cover feels extremely dirty, but we're doing it. Colts win a brutal game to watch by a field goal.

The pick: Colts 23 – Titans 20

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets

Spread: Rams -3.0

Total: 46.0

With consecutive wins over the Bills and Niners, it feels like the Rams should be getting a bit more respect here. But the Jets are coming off of a win of their own, and the Aaron Rodgers-led passing game has looked much better and more explosive in recent weeks. 

I remain skeptical of the Rams' defense, but we do need to keep in mind that it's a better unit than the Jaguars, who've been the worst pass defense in football for virtually the entire season. So while the Jets are a dangerous berserker team, we can't give them too much credit for a come-from-behind win over Mac Jones, in which they gave up 421 total yards. 

I fully expect the Jets to make us sweat this one out, but they've proven over and over (and over) that they cannot be trusted to close out games against good teams this season. Rams win and cover the field goal.

The pick: Rams 26 – Jets 20

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Spread: Eagles -3.0

Total: 45.5

Last week against Pittsburgh was one of the more obvious "squeaky wheel gets the grease" spots in recent NFL history for the Philly passing game. It certainly felt like the Eagles tried to prove a point by Jalen Hurts attempting 30-plus passes for the first time since Week 4, and Hurts essentially confirmed as much postgame.

While I don't love the idea of Nick Sirriana kowtowing to internal pressure, it's tough to argue with the results, as Philly rolled up 401 total yards and Hurts threw for more than 250 for the first time since September. 

Assuming Saquon Barkley is back in full force – he was in out for much of the second half last week – I see Philly returning to form as a run-first team this week. That was the recipe in the first meeting with Washington, when the Eagles piled up 206 yards on the ground in a 26-18 victory. In my eyes, the final score did not match the Eagles' level of dominance. Philly out-gained Washington 434 to 264 and held the Commanders to 3-of-12 on third downs but went 1-of-3 in the red zone and had a pair of missed field goals. Austin Ekeler, who's on IR, accounted for over 40 percent of Washington's total offense in that matchup.

All of this is to say, I like the Eagles here. Washington is breathing a sigh of relief after surviving last week against the Saints, but failing to run away from Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler has to be at least semi-alarming.

The pick: Eagles 30 – Commanders 23

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Vikings -3.0

Total: 42.5

Seattle is another team with a question mark at quarterback this week, but initial word on Geno Smith has been positive. It remains to be seen if he'll be cleared to play, but if he's not, it'll be Sam Howell time.

Either way, this is a backs-against-the-wall spot for Seattle, which lost its grip on the NFC West last week with a loss to Green Bay coupled with the Rams' win over San Francisco. Seattle got punched in the mouth early on by Green Bay and never truly crawled back into the game. By the end of the night, the Seahawks had just 208 total yards of offense – their fourth sub-300-yard game in the last five weeks. 

The pick: Vikings 24 – Seahawks 20

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -14.0

Total: 46.5

Buffalo is riding high coming off of a huge win in Detroit last week, which capped off a brutal four-game stretch of schedule. The Bills can now exhale with the Patriots, Jets and Patriots (again) remaining on the ledger, but they're still in the hunt for the 1-seed in the AFC.

Obviously, Buffalo has been on an incredible run, offensively, piling up eight consecutive 30-point games, but the defense has allowed at least 20 points in five of those, including 42 and 44 to the Lions and Rams in the last two weeks. New England, of course, is not on that level, but the door should be open for Drake Maye to move the ball, especially in what could be a potential foot-off-the-gas spot for Buffalo.

Even so, the Bills are scoring with such ease that it's hard to imagine New England keeping up. The Pats can make a run at a backdoor cover, but we'll side with Buffalo to take care of business at home.

The pick: Bills 33 – Patriots 17

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Raiders -1.5

Total: 39.5

This isn't our stay-away of the week, but let the record show that it was given careful consideration. This is a brutal game to handicap for a number of reasons, including that both teams' chance at the No. 1 pick could be riding on this result. Vegas is probably the team in greater need of that pick, but it would also be extremely Raiders to win this game and potentially knock themselves out of contention.

The expectation is that Aidan O'Connell will be back under center for Vegas, which would be a significant upgrade from what we saw from Desmond Ridder on Monday night. But Mac Jones, despite throwing a game-ending pick, actually comported himself pretty well last week against the Jets, throwing for 294 yards (on 46 attempts) and two scores while tacking on 29 rushing yards.

It goes without saying that this is a total toss-up game that could go in any direction, but we'll side with the Jags, who are 6-3-1 ATS as a dog, to pull the slight road upset.

The pick: Jaguars 23 – Raiders 21

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -1.5

Total: 44.5

Interesting matchup in Miami between two teams still alive for postseason berths but will need plenty of help along the way. Both sides are coming off dream-crushing losses in Week 15. San Francisco managed just six points in an ugly home loss to the Rams, while the Dolphins blew multiple opportunities to steal a game in Houston.

Miami held the Texans to just 181 yards of total offense but was unable to overcome four killer turnovers from Tua Tagovailoa, who had his worst game of the season at the worst possible time.

This is somewhat unfamiliar territory for both sides – neither team envisioned sitting at 6-8 with three weeks to play. Motivation will be difficult to judge, but to me, the Niners are still the better-coached team and the side with better top-end talent. 

This is another toss-up to conclude the late window, but even after that TNF disaster, I trust the Niners' offense more than I do the Dolphins'. Miami's ground game continues to be a massive liability, as they haven't run for more than 82 yards as a team in six straight games. With Jaylen Waddle potentially sidelined, I'll take the Niners to win outright and officially put an end to Miami's disappointing season.

The pick: 49ers 24 – Dolphins 21

Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Buccaneers -3.5

Total: 49.0

Tampa Bay's second-half thrashing of the Chargers was one of the biggest statements of Week 15, and the Bucs continue to assert themselves as the class of the NFC South. They still have work to do, however, with Atlanta holding the tiebreaker in the division.

Dallas is carrying some momentum into the week, having now won three of its last four, capped off with a convincing 30-14 victory in Carolina last week. On balance, the Dallas defense feels like it's improved from earlier in the season, but this will be a difficult test against a balanced Tampa Bay offense that's put up at least 420 yards in seven of its last nine games. If Dallas can slow down Bucky Irving and the Bucs' ground game, they'll have a chance to pull the home upset. 

With that said, the Bucs are rolling right now, despite some mistakes from Baker Mayfield. I like him to clean it up this week and take another step toward securing the South.

The pick: Buccaneers 29 – Cowboys 23

Monday Night Football

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -14.0

Total: 42.5

This line has swelled into the zone of uncomfortability, but perhaps for good reason, as the Packers are coming off a beatdown of the Seahawks on Sunday night, while the Saints are still without Derek Carr. With all due respect to Jake Haener, he proved extremely quickly that he's not the answer, so it's widely expected that Spencer Rattler, who came on in relief last week, will get the start.

While Rattler is still an experienced rookie, he certainly brings more to the table – some pizazz, if you will – than Haener. And the Saints will need Rattler to take some chances on Monday night, especially if Alvin Kamara ends up being sidelined with the groin injury that forced him out of last week's loss. 

The Packers played arguably their best game of the season last week, and the defense appears to be rounding into form at the right time. Offensively, Green Bay should be able to continue to ride Josh Jacobs against New Orleans' 30th-ranked rush defense.

Rattler may be able to do enough to keep this interesting early on, but the Packers' defense should be very well-positioned on a night that could feature some wind and snow at Lambeau Field. Packers take care of business.

The pick: Packers 30 – Saints 13