This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
It was a rough 2015, but I can't be blamed for putting out perfect picks when the games get themselves wrong. This year, I will also put out perfect picks, and hopefully the league does a better job of living up to them.
Seriously, though, this is the 18th year I've written this column, and 2015 was my worst showing. Part of that is bad luck, part is the public getting smarter over time and part is just my missing the signs. Even though the games are full of variance and unpredictability, there are core baselines which can be measured and projected if you pay enough attention. Sometimes I'll look at other people's baseline numbers (Massey-Peabody do a decent job), but the danger in that is you're looking backwards (past performance) and not picking up where things are heading.
Every year teams streak and slump, and it's not all random. Young quarterbacks start to get it, offensive lines come together, defenses begin to jell. It's a fine line between overextraoplating a small sample and spotting the seeds of a genuine and sustainable development, but that's what the job is. It won't work for all 16 games each week as many teams simply are what they are and aren't materially developing or regressing in a given stretch of the season. For those, I'll rely on their past performance or the set-up, e.g., a west coast team traveling east for an early game, a Monday night home dog in a second
It was a rough 2015, but I can't be blamed for putting out perfect picks when the games get themselves wrong. This year, I will also put out perfect picks, and hopefully the league does a better job of living up to them.
Seriously, though, this is the 18th year I've written this column, and 2015 was my worst showing. Part of that is bad luck, part is the public getting smarter over time and part is just my missing the signs. Even though the games are full of variance and unpredictability, there are core baselines which can be measured and projected if you pay enough attention. Sometimes I'll look at other people's baseline numbers (Massey-Peabody do a decent job), but the danger in that is you're looking backwards (past performance) and not picking up where things are heading.
Every year teams streak and slump, and it's not all random. Young quarterbacks start to get it, offensive lines come together, defenses begin to jell. It's a fine line between overextraoplating a small sample and spotting the seeds of a genuine and sustainable development, but that's what the job is. It won't work for all 16 games each week as many teams simply are what they are and aren't materially developing or regressing in a given stretch of the season. For those, I'll rely on their past performance or the set-up, e.g., a west coast team traveling east for an early game, a Monday night home dog in a second meeting. Those factors are not magic eight balls, either, but context, venue, timing and weather can affect outcomes. There will be contradictions - one team is chosen for set-up, the other with a similar set-up is faded due to personnel. Just like making fantasy picks, we're tasked with aggregating disaparate factors and how we weigh them in each case will vary.
As such, see these picks for what they are: one person's perspective on the game as it relates to the point spread. They are by no means a substitute for your own analysis, and not worth blindly plugging in to your pools entries to guarantee a win. Read them, consider the logic/intuition and accept or reject as you see fit.
Easiest calls this week were the Broncos, Saints, Lions and Redskins. Coin flips were the Eagles, Jets, Vikings, Bears and Giants. I have no best bets as of yet, but might add one or two in the comments as the week progresses.
Click here for a handicapping overview.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Panthers -3 at Broncos
The Broncos handled the Panthers decisively in the Super Bowl, and since then Denver has lost its ineffective veteran signal caller and the Panthers have lost their top cover corner. At best, that's a wash, and the Broncos are getting points at home, to boot. Take Denver.
Broncos 20 - 19
EARLY GAMES
Buccaneers +3 at Falcons
I tend to like veteran teams early in the year because they have so much experience together, but I despise the Falcons as a team, and I think the Bucs are poised to make a run this year. Back Tampa.
Buccaneers 27 - 24
Vikings -2 at Titans
It's unclear whether Sam Bradford or Shaun Hill will be under center, and it's interesting that either way, the Vikings are still road favorites. Expect a lot of handing off from both teams this game, so the quarterbacks might not matter that much. I'll take the Vikings who have the more established defense and running game.
Vikings 16 - 13
Browns +4 at Eagles
I'm rooting for RGIII to resurrect his career in Cleveland in part to see him paired with college teammate Josh Gordon in four weeks. But I'm concerned about his inability to get rid of the ball and expect the Eagles defense to pound him if he doesn't. Lay the wood.
Eagles 23 - 17
Bengals -2.5 at Jets
I could see this one going either way. The Bengals will try to run, but the Jets are stout up front. So this could come down to A.J. Green vs. Darrelle Revis who's still above average, but not what he used to be. On the other side, I'd be surprised if the Jets moved the ball all that effectively, either. Turnovers will probably decide this one, but it's close enough, so I'll take the home dog.
Jets 20 - 17.
Raiders +1 at Saints
People seem to be buying into the Raiders this year, but I'll believe it when I see it. The Saints are not a good team, but they're typically much better at home and should be laying at least three. Back New Orleans.
Saints 30 - 27
Chargers +7 at Chiefs
The Chiefs might be without Tamba Hali, are without Justin Houston, and Eric Berry just ended his holdout after missing all of camp. And Jamaal Charles might not play, either. That makes this line too big. Back the Chargers.
Chiefs 23 - 20
Bills +3 at Ravens
I'm a sucker for the Ravens as I think John Harbaugh is one of the league's best coaches and will have this team ready, despite weaker personnel than in most seasons. The Bills have also lost a lot of talent on defense. Back Baltimore.
Ravens 24 - 20
Bears +6 at Texans
The Texans have looked good this preseason, and J.J. Watt is likely to be back. That said, if Watt isn't 100 percent after missing the entire preseason due to back surgery, these teams aren't that far apart. I'll take the points.
Texans 20 - 17
Packers -4.5 at Jaguars
I wish I could fade both these teams as the Jaguars have gotten too much undeserved offseason hype for their defense, and the Packers are presumed to be the 2014 version as if last year never happened. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the home dog. Back Jacksonville.
Packers 24 - 23
LATE GAMES
Dolphins +10.5 at Seahawks
I like Adam Gase's chances to fix the Dolphins offense, but with DeVante Parker (their best downfield weapon) likely limited or out, and playing in Seattle, this is not the week it happens. Take the Seahawks who roll.
Seahawks 34 - 3
Giants pick 'em at Cowboys
Maybe Dak Prescott is really good, but we won't know until he plays in a real game, and the Giants pass rush should be among the league's best this year. Of course, the Cowboys will try to run the ball as much as possible, but New York's front with Damon Harrison and Johnathan Hankins is also stout. The other question is whether the Giants' shaky offensive line can protect Eli Manning. In the end, I think the Giants passing game does a little more than the Cowboys rushing attack. Back New York.
Giants 17 - 16
Lions +4 at Colts
I'd like to fade both of these teams too, but with all the injuries to Indy's defense including star cornerback Vontae Davis, this game is a coin toss. As such I'll take the points. Back Detroit.
Lions 27 - 23
SUNDAY NIGHT
Patriots +6 at Cardinals
The question here is whether Carson Palmer's shaky preseason means anything. Chance are it doesn't, and in that case they should handle New England's defense at home. I don't expect Jimmy Garappolo to keep up. Lay the wood.
Cardinals 28 - 17
MONDAY NIGHT
Steelers -3 at Redskins
The Steelers are missing a good chunk of their offense, and the Redskins should be able to keep up, especially at home. Back Washington.
Redskins 27 - 24
Rams -2.5 at 49ers
I'm inclined to lay the wood here. The Rams defense isn't bad, and Todd Gurley will probably run roughshod over a weak 49ers defense. Back the Rams.
Rams 27 - 13
I went to 114-134-8 in 2015. I was 7-9-3 on best bets. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.
