Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps the Wild Card Round

It was nice to finish strong in Week 17 (10-5-1), and after adding the Bills as a best bet (can't believe the line went up to 5.5 on Sunday morning, so I could keep it at 4.5), I wound up 18-12 (60%) on them. Overall, it was my best season since 2006 at 135-116-5, which says less about how great a year this was than how mediocre I was from 2007-2013. But I'm working on a 50-year sample, so hopefully this is the start of a nice 5-10 year run.

I took a couple bad beats which were not especially noteworthy in and of themselves, but given they cost me an outright win of my season-long pick 'em pool, and one of them was the very last game of the year, I'll mention them. Had either the Rams (pick six, then fumble at the half yard line out of bounds in the end zone) or the Bengals (down three with four minutes left at the Steelers 30-yard line before fumbling, and the Steelers, instead of running clock or punting, got a 70-yard TD from Antonio Brown) pushed or covered, I would have won the whole thing. I did split the pool three ways at least.

I was also battling Scott Pianowski for the Staff Picks title (I was a game behind heading into Week 17.) When I saw I was 10-4-1 through the late games, I was pretty sure I had it - until I went to Staff Picks to compare and saw he was three games up on me, i.e., he was 13-1-1. He also had Pittsburgh Sunday night, so he won easily with a 14-1-1 mark. The only game he missed was Cowboys-Redskins as Jason Garrett for God knows what reason left his starters in all game.

I did get a little lucky last week as my three coin flip games all came through, but so did my best bet and the two other games I had considered as possible best bets.

That out of the way, let's take a look at the Wild Card games.

I don't have one I'd consider best bet material, but I did have a much easier time on the Saturday ones.

SATURDAY GAMES

Cardinals +6 at Panthers

This line opened at 4/4.5 and has gradually moved up to six with some books offering 6.5, and it's easy to see why. The Cardinals are hoping Drew Stanton can play, but he's not practicing as of mid-week, and a rusty, less-than-100-percent Stanton might not be an upgrade over a healthy Ryan Lindley. The Cardinals defense had been okay, especially against the run, but they've even tailed off in that area of late, yielding big games on the ground to both the Seahawks and 49ers and finished the year with 4.4 YPC allowed (26th). Their pass defense hasn't fared much better with 7.6 YPA allowed, good for 22nd.

The Panthers defense, on the other hand, has gotten better as the year's gone on, finishing with 7.0 YPA allowed (12th). They're one slot behind Arizona in rush defense (4.5 YPC, 27th), so they're vulnerable on that front, but they allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in six of their last seven games after getting torched for more than 100 in seven of their first nine.

While momentum is overrated as a handicapping tool, this looks more like two teams changing identities over the season's last month, and the Panthers, despite being four games behind in the standings are now the substantially better team. Throw in the home-field advantage and the far better quarterback, and I'm comfortable laying the wood. Back the Panthers.

Panthers 27 - 16

Ravens +3 at Steelers

These teams could always be counted on for coin-flip games that went down to the wire. But this year, the Ravens blew out the Steelers 26-6 at home in Week 2, then got destroyed in Pittsburgh 43-23 in Week 9. While the rubber match is in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers have been the better team of late, there are some caveats in order.

First, Haloti Ngata - one of the Ravens' key defensive players - had been suspended the last four games, and he's now eligible to return. Second, the Steelers are likely missing one of their key offensive players in Le'Veon Bell, who's valuable not just as a runner and clock killer, but also as the No. 3 option in the passing game. And after releasing LeGarrette Blount, the Steelers are so thin at the position, they signed Ben Tate off the scrap heap, i.e., they don't have a back they trust on the roster. While the passing game is still formidable, it's tough to win in January with neither a running game nor even an average defense (25th in YPC, 28th in YPA.)

The Ravens will need a competent game from Joe Flacco, and their below average secondary 7.3 YPA (17th) will have to limit the damage, but overall, they're the more balanced team, and I expect them to hang around in another coin-flip game. Back the Ravens.

Ravens 24 - 23

SUNDAY GAMES

Bengals +3.5 at Colts

I seem to get the Colts wrong every week, so you might want to fade this pick regardless of where I end up. The Colts annihilated the Bengals in Week 7, but A.J. Green (whose status is unknown as I write this) was out, and Cincinnati was similarly destroyed in Week 10 against the Browns before killing the Browns in Week 15.

The biggest question is which version of Andy Dalton shows up. If Dalton plays competently, I like the Bengals chances to hang around, especially given their big advantage in the running game. If Dalton plays even his average game, the Bengals should be okay, so long as they limit big plays on defense. But if the bad Dalton, the one with whom we're so familiar in big spots, is under center, the running game advantage won't matter, and the game will be a blowout. I'll say Dalton plays okay, and the Bengals cover, but I'm not especially confident in that. Back Cincy.

Colts 27 - 24

Lions +6.5 at Cowboys

The Thanksgiving bowl, either because both teams always host on Thanksgiving Day, or because both have gifted so many wins to undeserving opponents over the last decade, pits arguably the best team of the Wild Card weekend, Dallas, against arguably the most talented (at least on paper), Detroit.

The problem I'm having with this one is reading the Detroit offense/Dallas defense matchup. I could see Matt Stafford connecting on big plays to his wideouts and keeping pace with the Cowboys, or the offensive line failing in pass protection en route to a Dallas rout. The easier side is the Cowboys strong offense wearing down Detroit's stout front and getting its points, albeit with some resistance. I suppose I'll take Dallas here as they're laying less than a touchdown, and Tony Romo is so much better than Stafford. Back the Cowboys.

Cowboys 27 - 20

I went 10-5-1 in Week 17 to put me at 135-116-5 on the season. Best bets are 18-12-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.