Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 13 - With Video

Last week was actually one of the better ones I've ever had. While 9-6 is perfectly fine, I went 0-3 on games I singled out as coin flips and 2-0 on best bets. That's the benefit of identifying a couple on each side - I can get a better sense of how on or off I was on a given slate. Not that there's such a thing as momentum in handicapping.

This week, I initially liked the Panthers as a best bet, but that line has since moved from three to 2.5, so I had to scratch it off. I like the Lions a little bit, but I'm not willing to put them in that category, either. So no best bets as yet, but I might add one or two in the comments.

I struggled especially on SEA-SF, CLE-BUF, ATL-ARZ, NE-GB and MIA-NYJ.

THANKSGIVING DAY

Bears +7 at Lions

The Bears have beaten the Vikings and Bucs at home the last two weeks, but neither game was a tour de force. The Lions have lost their last two at Arizona and New England, with their offense being exposed as below average even with Calvin Johnson back. While Matt Stafford is still the quarterback and Jim Caldwell the coach, I expect the Lions to flex their muscles at home against a soft and beatable opponent. Back Detroit.

Lions 30 - 17

Eagles +3 at Cowboys

These are roughly equal teams, and I vastly prefer Chip Kelly to Jason Garrett, but that's largely offset by Tony Romo over Mark Sanchez. This is the right line, but I'll go Dallas based on their offensive consistency and balance. Lay the points.

Cowboys 24 - 20

Seahawks +1 at 49ers

The 49ers have looked awful in their last two wins, but I expect them to be up for this one. The Seahawks have played better of late, but I still don't trust them to get the ball down the field or get pressure on the quarterback. Take the Niners.

49ers 20 - 17

EARLY GAMES

Redskins +9.5 at Colts

I liked the Redskins initially, and I like them especially (odd to be saying this) with Colt McCoy instead of Robert Griffin. The latter has been so awful, it's like spotting the other team five sacks before the game even starts. Take the points.

Colts 27 - 21

Titans +6.5 at Texans

So now it's back to the abysmal Ryan Fitzpatrick, but even he should move the ball against a weak Titans defense, especially if Arian Foster can make it back. I'm inclined to lay the wood here. Back Houston.

Texans 24 - 17

Browns +2.5 at Bills

The Browns won ugly at Atlanta last week, while the Bills destroyed the Jets. I liked Cleveland a lot better when this line opened at three, but I'll stick with them. Having an unguardable receiver changes the entire offense, and Brian Hoyer should play better than he did last week. I expect the game to be close. Back Cleveland.

Browns 19 - 17

Chargers +5.5 at Ravens

This year I make my initial picks on Tuesday for our video before writing up the column on Wednesday, and like the Browns-Bills, this line moved against me (it was 4.5 when I took the Ravens.) Still, while the Chargers arguably offer "value" at this number, the Ravens are the better team, and they're especially tough at home. Back Baltimore.

Ravens 27 - 20

Giants -2.5 at Jaguars

The Giants are pretty bad, but as long as this line stays under three, I'm comfortable laying the wood against the league's worst team. Back New York.

Giants 27 - 17

Bengals -4 at Buccaneers

The Bucs had arguably the worst defense in the league, but have shut down both the Redskins and the Bears the last two weeks. The Bengals looked like a great team out of the gate, a terrible one for 3-4 games and now look credible again. I'd actually like to back both teams this week, but if forced to pick (and I am), give me the home dog, Back Tampa.

Bengals 20 - 19

Raiders +7 at Rams

The Rams have some nice wins on their resume, but I'd still consider them below average. Nonetheless, now that Oakland got its first win, it can safely go back to sleep. Back St. Louis.

Rams 31 - 7

Saints +4 at Steelers

Another team I picked on Tuesday (I liked the Steelers -3.5.) moving in the wrong direction with the line. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take it at four, as the Saints, who looked better Monday night, aren't good on the road, and the Steelers should move the ball at will. Lay the points.

Steelers 31 - 24

Panthers +2.5 at Vikings

Not to sound ungrateful on the eve of Thanksgiving (okay, I admit it I'm ungrateful), but I picked the Panthers plus three Tuesday, and was considering them as a best bet. Still, the Vikings offense is terrible, and I expect Carolina to show up after a week off. Take the points.

Panthers 23 - 20

LATE GAMES

Cardinals -2.5 at Falcons

The Falcons are better at home, and the Cardinals offense is below average with Drew Stanton under center. While Arizona will stuff the run, that skill is largely wasted on an Atlanta team that doesn't run it well anyway. I'll take the home dog.

Falcons 20 - 19

Patriots +3 at Packers

The game of the year so far, as the two best teams in the NFL the last eight weeks square off. This is the right line in Lambeau Field, and I largely regard it as a coin flip. I suppose I'll take the points, but honestly I almost expect a push.

Packers 26 - 24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Broncos -1.5 at Chiefs

Losing to the Raiders on national TV, then beating the Broncos in the Sunday night game? Sounds about right. Back Kansas City whose ugly dink and dunk game gets it done.

Chiefs 24 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Dolphins -6 at Jets

I really want to take the Jets here as Monday night home dogs coming off the blowout loss, but I have a feeling this line touches seven before kickoff, and it's hard to expect much from Geno Smith. Back the Dolphins.

Dolphins 24 - 13

I went 9-6 in Week 12 to put me at 98-76-2 on the season. Best bets are 17-11-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.