Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 14

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It was an 8-8 week, and one in which I lost a best bet, the Bears, dropping my record on those to 6-7. But obviously, the Lions were the right side, and the other three games I especially liked (Steelers, Seahawks and Saints) all came through.

This week, I especially like the Cardinals, Panthers, Browns and Packers. Coin flips include: Patriots-Texans, Bills-Eagles and Lions-Rams. Let's call the Cards and Packers best bets.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Vikings +8 at Cardinals

The Cardinals are one of the best teams in the NFL, they're especially tough at home, and they face a fraudulent Vikings team missing three of its best defensive players. Lay the wood.

Cardinals 33 - 7

EARLY GAMES

Steelers +3 at Bengals

These are roughly equal teams, so this line is right. I see this as roughly a 50/50 game, even though it's in Cincinnati, so I'll take the points, but I'm not strong on it.

Steelers 24 - 23

Bills -1 at Eagles

Who are the Eagles? The team that quit against the Bucs and Lions or the one that won in New England? I have no idea, but it shows we're clueless when it comes to team motivation, no matter what narratives are floating around. I think this could be the highest scoring game of the week, and I'll take the home dog. Back Philly.

Eagles 33 - 31

Falcons +7.5 at Panthers

Why do the Falcons keep getting so much respect from the oddsmakers? Aren't they one of the worst teams in the league at this point? Shouldn't the worst going on the road to the best be double-digits? Every week, I feel like I'm missing something with the Falcons, but they never prove me wrong. Lay the wood.

Panthers 31 - 13

49ers +1.5 at Browns

Two league doormats, but for some reason the 49ers aren't getting the full three. With Johnny Manziel back, I think they should. Back the Browns.

Browns 23 - 20

Redskins +3 at Bears

The battle of two teams that blew it last week for no apparent reason. The Redskins have struggled on the road all year, and the Bears - aside from their no-show against the 49ers - haven't been bad. Back Chicago.

Bears 27 - 20

Lions pick 'em at Rams

Two teams going in different directions, the ridiculous ending to the Packers game notwithstanding. I'd like to be contrarian and take the Rams at home, but I'm not feeling it. Back Detroit.

Lions 20 - 16

Chargers +10 at Chiefs

Normally I like the Chargers better as underdogs, but their offense is decimated by injuries, and this is a tough venue in which to play in December. I'm laying the wood.

Chiefs 27 - 10

Saints +3.5 at Buccaneers

The Saints are awful on the road, and the Bucs are roughly a league-average team at this point. I'll take Tampa.

Buccaneers 24 - 20

Colts pick 'em at Jaguars

Matt Hasselbeck's done a nice job keeping the Colts afloat, but he was exposed last week, and now he's banged up. I'll take the Jaguars as a pick at home.

Jaguars 24 - 19

Titans +7 at Jets

If Darrelle Revis doesn't play (and his status is up in the air right now), I expect the Titans to put up points in this game. As such seven is enough. Take Tennessee.

Jets 27 - 24

Seahawks -7.5* at Ravens

I couldn't find a definitive line on this game, and I assume it's because Matt Schaub is banged up. It's odd to think Schaub's absence could move the line, but his backup is Jimmy Clausen, who was already destroyed by the Seahawks once this year while he was playing for the Bears. In any event, this is not a game I'd touch. I suppose I'll take the Seahawks who could pull away late if it's close rather than the Ravens who could be down 28-0 in the second quarter.

Seahawks 23 - 10

*average of two widely disparate lines (6 and 9)

LATE GAMES

Raiders +7.5 at Broncos

I'm not impressed with the Brock Osweiler version of the Broncos offense - it managed only 10 points against the Chargers last week. So give me the Raiders who should hang around.

Broncos 20 - 16

Cowboys +7 at Packers

This is a good time to sell the Cowboys after the dramatic (and ugly) Monday night win. The Packers aren't great, but their defense is good enough to cause Matt Cassel problems, and I expect Green Bay to have success on the ground with a now out-of-the-doghouse Eddie Lacy. Lay the points.

Packers 31 - 16

SUNDAY NIGHT

Patriots -3 at Texans

I have no feel for this game. I thought the Texans were good defensively until last week, and the Patriots offense is a shell of its former self with all the injuries. I suppose I'll take the Pats and their underrated defense.

Patriots 27 - 17

MONDAY NIGHT

Giants -1 at Dolphins

The Giants are killing me this year with their late game ineptitude. In fact, they'd have won eight or nine times if games were only 58 minutes long. Still, the Dolphins defense isn't good, they don't have much of a home field advantage and Ryan Tannehill hasn't gotten better. Back the Giants.

Giants 28 - 17

I went 8-8 in Week 13 to bring my record to 83-103-6 on the year. I'm 6-7-2 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.