Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 6

My new method of making my own lines first and comparing them to Vegas' went 7-7, but that includes a bad beat on the Bears and a semi bad one on the Rams. The Lions got lucky with all the penalty calls, however, and the Panthers crushed the Bucs on a per-play basis when you take out the turnovers, so maybe it was a wash.

One thing that's hard when setting my own lines is making sure I'm not trying to predict what Vegas will do, but instead sticking to what I think they *should* do. Often it's a fine line because Vegas on balance does a good job, so I'm constantly trying to get clear in my head what I think rather than what it'll end up being. It was especially difficult this week as my numbers wound up being fairly close to the actual lines in most cases and exactly on them in several. The biggest disparities were the Dolphins, Saints, Bears, Bills and Cowboys. (I include the half-point disparity on the Bears because it was from 2.5 to three, a consequential number.) My lines were indentical for the Chargers, Giants. Browns, Seahawks and Colts.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Broncos -3 at Chargers

I had this line pegged at three, so this is a coin flip for me. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the home dog and hope Melvin Gordon doesn't fumble yet again. Back San Diego.

Broncos 20 - 19

EARLY GAMES

Bengals +9 at Patriots

I pegged this game at eight, and the real line is nine. It's not an important difference, and I hate not taking the Pats at home, but I'll stick to my guns and say the Bengals show up and keep it close enough. Take Cincinnati.

Patriots 27 - 20

Ravens +3 at Giants

The Giants have a better team, the Ravens a much better coach. Consequently, these are even teams and as such the line is three as I had it and as it should be. Complete coin flip, but I'll take the Giants.

Giants 24 - 20

Panthers -3 at Saints

I wanted to take the Panthers here, so I made what I thought was an aggressive line for a 1-4 team on the road (pick 'em), but Vegas beat me to it and has Carolina (presumably with Cam Newton back) laying three. That's a bridge too far for me, as Drew Brees should move the ball with ease at home against an average defense. Take New Orleans.

Panthers 31 - 30

Steelers -7.5 at Dolphins

I had the Dolphins getting 4.5 at home which I thought was aggressive given Ben Roethlisberger's home/road splits the last couple years, but Vegas took it to the next level, granting Miami (perhaps well deserved) league doormat status with this line. The Steelers could roll, but this one was an easy call. Back Miami.

Steelers 27 - 23

Jaguars +2.5 at Bears

I pegged this at three, assuming these were roughly even teams, but Vegas thinks the Jaguars for some reason are better. I don't see it. Take the Bears.

Bears 26 - 23

49ers +8 at Bills

Colin Kaepernick could give San Francisco a shot in the arm, but it's unclear what we'll get from him after the long layoff, and it's not like he was even close to competent the last time we saw him play. Moreover, the Bills defense has played well, and Tyrod Taylor seems to get it done without much help. I had this line at 10.5, so I'm laying the wood.

Bills 24 - 13

Rams +3.5 at Lions

I know the Rams are banged up defensively, and now they just lost top cover corner Trumaine Johnson to an ankle injury. But I still pegged this line at three given the opposition, and so I'll take the points.

Rams 23 - 20

Browns +7 at Titans

This was also my line. My inclination is to buy the Browns low and sell Tennessee high, but this feels like a game where the turnover battle will randomly decide which team covers. Either way, I'll take the points.

Titans 20 - 16

Eagles -2.5 at Redskins

I had this game as a pick 'em in Washington, and while anything less than three isn't much different, it's enough for me to take the home dog. Back the Redskins.

Redskins 24 - 23

LATE GAMES

Chiefs +1 at Raiders

I had this as a pick 'em, so I'll take the Chiefs even if one point makes little difference. The Raiders defense isn't good, and I'm not a believer in Derek Carr. (To clarify, I believe he exists, just not that he's especially good.) Take Kansas City.

Chiefs 27 - 23

Falcons +6.5 at Seahawks

I had this game at exactly 6.5, so it's another coin flip. My inclination is to take Seattle at home even though the Falcons were able to solve the Denver defense on the road last week. Lay the wood.

Seahawks 24 - 17

Cowboys +4.5 at Packers

I pegged this game at 3.5, and I knew Vegas would have it higher. For whatever reason, the Packers are still considered an elite team, but I don't see it when I watch them play. Take the points.

Packers 23 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Colts +3 at Texans

This is where I had the line too. Both are both bad teams, but I'll buy the Texans low at home against a bad Colts defense. Take Houston.

Texans 24 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Jets +8 at Cardinals

I had this at seven, so I'm taking the Jets. The Cardinals could roll, but the Jets stop the run, and I want to see Carson Palmer (if he's healthy) get the passing game on track before laying a big number. Take the points.

Cardinals 24 - 17

I went 7-7 last week to go 36-41 on the season. I'm 0-1 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.