Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 9

I went 6-6-1 last week thanks to some luck in the late and Sunday night games. My two (non-official) best bets from Staff Picks (Panthers and Texans) came through, though the games I flagged here (Seahawks, Colts, Cowboys, Falcons) did poorly.

For this week, I hate my picks. I'm on a lot of ugly underdogs, and laying points with a couple favorites who have not played well of late. If I had to pick my best bets, I'd say the Vikings and Bills, but even those I'm not strong on. Essentially, I just made my own lines and stuck to my guns when the Vegas ones put me on teams I hated.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Falcons -3.5 at Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are terrible, but this is a big road line on a short week. I had this at Falcons -1.5, so I'm holding my nose and taking the Bucs.

Falcons 27 - 24

EARLY GAMES

Jaguars +9 at Chiefs

I'm assuming Alex Smith will play, though based on how Nick Foles performed it might not matter. I actually made this line 10.5 - a league doormat playing on the road against a playoff-caliber squad. Lay the wood.

Chiefs 31 - 17

Lions +6 at Vikings

I made this line 6.5, and I'm happy to see it's only six because I think Minnesota is a good buy-low at home in this spot off the two road losses. The Vikings offense is bad, but the Lions defense should help them get well, and the Vikings defense is still very good. Lay the points.

Vikings 20 - 13

Eagles +2.5 at Giants

I set this line at three as these are roughly equal teams with good defenses and conservative offenses. The Giants have more upside offensively, but I'm dubious their coach will attack Philly's suspect secondary. In any event, the line's only 2.5, so lay the points.

Giants 23 - 20

Cowboys -7.5 at Browns

This is exactly where I set the line, so it's a coin flip. When in doubt, take the home dog, I suppose, but the Cowboys present a terrible matchup for Cleveland.

Cowboys 30 - 23

Jets +3.5 at Dolphins

I had this line at four. The Dolphins aren't good, but the Jets are a doormat, their win in Cleveland notwithstanding. I suppose I'll lay the wood.

Dolphins 27 - 20

Steelers +2 at Ravens

Obviously, this line hinges on Ben Roethlisberger's health. Assuming he returns in some capacity, I made this a pick 'em, and the Steelers are getting two. Take Pittsburgh.

Steelers 23 - 20

LATE GAMES

Saints -3.5 at 49ers

Maybe I'm underrating the Saints because I surely do not overrate the 49ers. I made this line a pick 'em in San Francisco, so I'm taking the points.

Saints 27 - 24

Panthers -3 at Rams

I'm on some ugly sides this week, and it makes me nervous. Here's another one. I made this game Panthers minus one, and they're laying a full FG. I suppose I'm holding my nose again. Take the Rams.

Panthers 24 - 23

Colts +7 at Packers

This is exactly where I had the line. The Colts need T.Y. Hilton healthy, and they have a puncher's chance. I'll take the points.

Packers 31 - 27

Titans +5 at Chargers

For God knows what reason I made this only 4.5, which means I'm taking the Titans, a team I don't respect. Take the points.

Chargers 27 - 23

SUNDAY NIGHT

Broncos pick 'em at Raiders

Again, I'm taking the team I don't want. I grudgingly have to respect the Raiders and Derek Carr, but the Broncos defense is awfully good. I made this Broncos +2.5, and since they're not getting anything, I'm taking Oakland and fading Trevor Siemian.

Raiders 17 - 16

MONDAY NIGHT

Bills +7 at Seahawks

I made this line Bills +6.5, and they're getting the full seven. With Michael Bennett out on defense, a shaky offensive line and an immobile Russell Wilson, I think this is a bad matchup for Seattle. That said, I'm sure now that I faded him, Wilson will prove to be miraculously healthy. In any event, I'm taking the Bills.

Seahawks 20 - 16

I went 6-6-1 in Week 8 to go 59-59-2 on the season. I'm 0-2 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.