This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.
The 2023 combine is in the books and with the testing numbers it provided we can begin finalizing the pre-draft rankings of the 2023 rookie class.
For this article – the first of two – I'll specifically try to project the ADP changes that might occur with this rookie group in Underdog Fantasy NFL best ball drafts. With the new information about player builds and workout metrics, we can expect a few parts to move around.
I'll go in order of rookie ADP, meaning starting with Bijan Robinson. Part two will go up shortly later, breaking down the next 18 players in the Underdog ADP.
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Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (5-11, 215)
Robinson didn't do poorly at the combine, but it also would be wrong to say he helped himself. That's fine, because Robinson was likely headed for a top-20 selection anyway. If he had run much better than his 4.46 40 or ran that time at ten pounds heavier it would have been a reason for him to push for the top 15.
Pre-combine ADP: 13.5
Post-combine ADP projection: No change
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama (5-9, 199)
It wasn't ideal for Gibbs to weigh in at 199 pounds, but a 4.36-second 40 makes it fine. Gibbs is an incredibly talented receiver to pair with that sort of speed. He belongs in the first round of the NFL draft, and he could start pushing for the fourth round of best ball drafts. Even in Underdog's 0.5PPR scoring, Gibbs could play a starring role in the 2023 best ball puzzle.
Pre-combine ADP: 56.8
Post-combine ADP projection: 48.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (6-1, 196)
Smith-Njigba didn't run the 40 and had average jumps, but his agility testing was spectacular (6.57-second three-cone drill, 3.93-second 20-yard shuttle) and maybe more importantly, WR1 competition Jordan Addison had a slightly disappointing combine showing, which could cement JSN as the WR1 to many so long as he doesn't run a poor 40 time at the Ohio State pro day. It's not clear whether that will lead to much ADP change, though, because JSN was already the first WR off the board in best ball drafts.
Pre-combine ADP: 57.8
Post-combine ADP projection: No change
Jordan Addison, WR, USC (5-11, 173)
Addison still projects as a standout starting receiver in the NFL, but his combine testing did not go especially well. After checking in at a surprisingly low weight of 173 pounds, Addison could only generate a 4.49-second 40-yard dash. Addison was incredible at creating space in college and is dynamic before and after he has the ball, but he's perhaps less likely to threaten credibly at a high average depth of target. He will probably slip in best ball drafts, but if he does it could be a good time to acquire Addison.
Pre-combine ADP: 75.0
Post-combine ADP projection: 95.0
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU (6-3, 208)
Johnston didn't run a 40-yard dash, but his vertical (40.5 inches) and broad jump (134 inches) are strong evidence that his speed will eventually check out just fine. With Addison disappointing and Smith-Njigba much less convincing as a downfield threat, Johnston might start getting more WR1 hype. If so then he might soon see his ADP jump a round or so on Underdog.
Pre-combine ADP: 79.7
Post-combine ADP projection: 70.0
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College (5-9, 182)
Flowers was going too high in the first place and his ADP should eventually slip as a result, but in terms of the combine specifically Flowers did a good job. His 4.42-second 40 goes a long way to ease concerns raised by his small frame, and it gives him a decent shot at competing for boundary reps even with the lack of height. Still, he is not clearly better than the likes of Josh Downs, Marvin Mims or Tyler Scott yet costs much more than all of them.
Pre-combine ADP: 92.1
Post-combine ADP projection: 110.0
Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA (6-0, 214)
Charbonnet's weigh-in was a little weird in that he was expected to be both taller and heavier, and at 6-feet, 214 pounds Charbonnet is bordering on skinny for his frame (by running back standards, obviously). The good news is that with a 4.52-second 40 and solid jumps Charbonnet showed he could get back to the more appropriate weight of 220 while remaining an above-average athlete overall. In short, Charbonnet's combine was neither bad nor great and probably shouldn't change his stock much. He's a rock-solid second-round prospect in the 2023 draft and should probably remain in the first eight rounds of best ball drafts.
Pre-combine ADP: 95.5
Post-combine ADP projection: No change
Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee (6-0, 176)
Hyatt did well in general terms – a 4.40-second 40 is normally cause for celebration, especially when it comes with a 40-inch vertical and 135-inch broad jump – but Hyatt's scouting report has always anticipated numbers like those and so the expectation should have been baked into his price all along. If anything Hyatt might have slightly disappointed in testing, if only because there was some hope he'd go south of the 4.3-second mark in the 40. While the Will Fuller comparisons are not quite accurate, Hyatt should have a durable market right now as a hyper-productive player whose athletic marks rank near the top of the class.
Pre-combine ADP: 104.2
Post-combine ADP projection: No change
Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina (5-9, 171)
Downs' combine showing was confusing, and perhaps one easy to get wrong as an analyst. It's not good that he checked in at 5-foot-9, 171 pounds, and his 4.48-second 40 isn't quite strong enough to verify Downs' ability to consistently threaten downfield in the NFL. Not just that, but in terms of position, body type, skill set and athletic traits Downs largely blends in with the likes of Marvin Mims, Tyler Scott and Zay Flowers. Downs' staggering production at North Carolina implies he has the skill set to continue thriving in the NFL if given the opportunity, and at worst he should be an effective underneath target from the slot, but his draft stock might be closer to the third round than the first. He might slip a little in the ADP solely because of how many more people will try to draft Mims than before the combine.
Pre-combine ADP: 117.1
Post-combine ADP projection: 125.0
Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU (5-11, 195)
Boutte remained enigmatic at the combine, running a solid 4.50-second 40 before posting abysmal jump numbers. Boutte finished with a 29-inch vertical and 118-inch broad jump – baffling numbers assuming he wasn't dealing with an injury. The size-adjusted 40 is the most important thing, though, and Boutte did satisfactory in that one particular regard. If Boutte's athleticism is sufficient for the NFL level then his (early) LSU production says that he has the skill set necessary to produce as an NFL starter. You can't really move up Boutte based on this combine showing but he probably shouldn't slip much either.
Pre-combine ADP: 133.4
Post-combine ADP projection: No change
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (5-10, 204)
Those selecting Young before the combine were doing so because he was the betting favorite to be picked first overall in the NFL draft. Those particular people, then, should have reasoned all along that Young would possess a sufficient NFL build, and Young weighing over 200 pounds therefore should not matter to them. The question for Young's ADP from this point is how many drafters were converted specifically on the point of his 204-pound weigh-in. Young didn't play at that weight, so those who faded him on the grounds of build can remain skeptical, but expect Young's price to jump to some extent
Pre-combine ADP: 136.0
Post-combine ADP projection: 125.0
Sean Tucker, RB, Syracuse (5-9, 207)
Tucker was going too early all along, and he skipped all combine testing. Tucker will have to be followed up on when he runs and jumps in a pro day setting, but for now his ADP is poised to free fall, and there isn't much reason to expect Tucker to test great when he does eventually run and jump. It's difficult to advocate Tucker as a best ball selection right now.
Pre-combine ADP: 137.5
Post-combine ADP projection: 220.0
Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M (5-9, 188)
It was always egregious that Achane was going later than Tucker, but those days are gone. Achane ran a 4.32-second 40 even while Daniel Jeremiah reported that Achane was not at 100 percent. Achane is small but that is mostly a limiting factor for his workload from scrimmage and to a lesser extent his snap count. Achane has the tools to threaten from scrimmage for however many touches he can hold up, and his skill set as a running back is convincing.
Pre-combine ADP: 140.5
Post-combine ADP projection: 130.0
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (6-3, 214)
Aside from weighing in a bit light, Stroud didn't do anything wrong at the combine. If his stock slips at all in the ADP it would probably just be due to the gains made by Anthony Richardson, who went nuts in the athletic testing. Stroud should be a top-10 pick, whatever the specifics that come with it.
Pre-combine ADP: 151.4
Post-combine ADP projection: 150.0
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane (5-10, 201)
Spears' production and tape at Tulane was excellent, so if he has NFL-viable athleticism there's nothing in theory that would hold him back at that point. Weighing in at 201 is a slight concern since it puts pressure on Spears to run a faster 40, but for now he won't be running the 40. It's doubtful that Spears' stock will suffer much in best ball drafts, especially after he posted strong jumps with a 39-inch vertical and 125-inch broad jump.
Pre-combine ADP: 155.2
Post-combine ADP projection: 150.0
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame (6-5, 249)
It would probably be fair to say Mayer was mostly a combine loser, and his projection took a slight hit with that. Mayer weighed in much lighter than expected yet only had a 4.7-second 40 to show for it. There's nothing wrong with that time, but you'd hope he could run it at at least six pounds heavier. Mayer's production and tape at Notre Dame grade emphatically well in a way that makes it easy to ignore any doom and gloom narratives.
Pre-combine ADP: 156.1
Post-combine ADP projection: 165.0
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida (6-4, 244)
Even if you try, it's almost impossible to commit hyperbole when describing Richardson's combine showing. At 6-foot-4, 244 pounds Richardson is massive and incredibly dense, boasting a ridiculous amount of anchor to maximize the effect of his 4.43 speed. The 40.5-inch vertical and 129-inch broad jump are incredible too. Note: those figures are incredible for a quarterback of any build. Richardson accomplished it as one of the biggest quarterbacks we'll ever see. Raw or not, Richardson is a remarkably explosive talent and the days of discount are gone.
Pre-combine ADP: 161.8
Post-combine ADP projection: 110.0 – 120.0
Up first in the next article: Tank Bigsby, Zach Evans, Roschon Johnson, etc.
