Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys
A rivalry that dates back to 1960 and is playing its 40th installment unfolds at AT & T Stadium on Sunday night. A Packers squad smarting from a Week 3 road upset loss to the Browns takes on a short-handed Cowboys team missing its No. 1 receiver.
We break down odds and best bets for a game that sees Green Bay looking to avoid a second straight stumble against a big home underdog.
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Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Packers -330 (FanDuel) / Cowboys +285 (DraftKings)
Point spread: Packers -6.5 (BetRivers) / Cowboys +7 (DraftKings)
Totals: Over 46.5 points (ESPN Bet)/ Under 47.5 points (DraftKings)
The Packers' projected advantage for this game has unsurprisingly only grown over the course of the last week-plus, even when factoring in Green Bay's upset defeat to Cleveland. The line was already at -4.5 in favor of the visitors before Week 3 kicked off. After Dallas' poor showing against Chicago that also featured the loss of CeeDee Lamb to an ankle injury, the number has grown to as much as -7 over the course of the week.
The total has been much more stable, really only having moved within a range of a point. The number was at 47.5 prior to Week 3 action, was bet up briefly to 48.5, but then went back to its original figure and has remained there as the weekend approaches.
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Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Picks
The Packers looked like a legitimate top-three team over their first two games of the season, impressively neutralizing the Lions and Commanders, albeit at Lambeau Field. Green Bay remained very stout on the defensive end against the Browns in Week 3, but its offense got quite the wakeup call against Cleveland's aggressive scheme. Cleveland recorded five sacks on Jordan Love and also picked him off once.
That should leave the Pack smarting for some revenge, and they may have found the perfect Week 4 victim in the Cowboys. Dallas defensive coordinator and former Bears head coach Matt Eberflus has not exactly been an early ringing success in his brief Cowboys tenure. He has deployed extremely elevated rates of passive zone coverage while generating a very anemic pass rush via minimal blitz rates. Its been a disastrous combination of ingredients that's led to Dallas mustering a modest four sacks and a single interception through three games. The Cowboys do get DaRon Bland back from a foot injury for this game, but given how Eberflus has used players who seem much better suited for man coverage thus far, it may not make much difference.
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is obviously also very familiar with how to attack Eberflus' defenses from their days together in the NFC North. The Cowboys did get Kenny Clark from Green Bay in the infamous Micah Parsons trade, but Dallas is still surrendering 109.7 rushing yards per game. The Dallas defense has also been vulnerable to deep passing due to its coverage style and general lack of pressure, allowing a league-high 12.7 yards per completion, a co-league-high six TDs to WRs, and a massive 16.9 yards per catch to the position as well.
Given the numbers cited, a pair of same-game parlays come to mind. The first banks on Josh Jacobs, who had rushed for 66 and 84 yards in the Packers' first two games before running into the brick wall of the Browns' front in Week 3. I like him to get to at least the 60-yard threshold for the 16th time overall (including postseason) since joining Green Bay at the start of the 2024 season, and for the game total to finish under 54.5, a figure I got to using FD's Alt. Total feature.
A secondary bet to consider arguably has a bit more risk, as it banks on a Packers win (the easy part) with either of the team's current No. 1 receivers finding the end zone. Golden is the higher-odds component given Dallas' trouble defending the deep pass, but Pickens should see plenty of action in Lamb's absence and already has a pair of touchdown grabs.
Packers vs. Cowboys Best Bets:
- SGP: Josh Jacobs 60+ rushing yards and Under Alt. Total 54.5 points (-101 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- SGP: Packers moneyline and George Pickens or Matthew Golden Either Player- Anytime TD Scorer (+127 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Packers vs. Cowboys Prediction
Packers 27, Cowboys 17
There are advantages for Green Bay across the board in this game, and that arguably would have mostly held true even if Lamb were active. His absence certainly hurts Dallas more than Jayden Reed's does the Packers, and the gulf between the two team's defenses tilts even heavier toward Green Bay. Consequently, a solid victory for the Pack where it gets itself back on track with strong play on either side of the ball is expected here.
