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Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
After a season of exceeding expectations, Bo Nix and the Broncos face off with the Buffalo Bills in an AFC wild-card showdown. The Bills are unsurprisingly solid home favorites, but Denver's defense gives the Sean Payton's squad a chance in any environment.
Read on as we break down odds and best bets.
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Bills -440 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Broncos +400 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Point spread: Bills -8.5 (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Broncos +9 (-115 BetMGM Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 48 points (bet365 Sportsbook)/ Over 47.5 points (BetMGM Sportsbook)
The spread for this game has enjoyed complete stability, as the number has remained at 8.5 or 9 points in favor of the Bills throughout the week. The total has seen slightly more movement, but primarily remained in a tight range between 46.5 and 47.5 points.
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills Betting Picks
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Nix has more than validated the faith of the Broncos' coaching staff, throwing for 3,775 yards with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while adding 430 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground and playing in all 17 games. The 12th overall pick also was at his best down the stretch, posting a 19:6 TD:INT over the final seven games and throwing multiple touchdown passes in six of those contests.
Nevertheless, as with many talented young quarterbacks taking their first dip in postseason waters, Nix faces long odds on Sunday. The Bills' defense hasn't been elite, but it's a safe bet that the combination of a postseason environment and a raucous crowd will raise their performance level up a notch. The chance to come after a rookie making his first playoff start doesn't hurt either.
Buffalo was actually on the outer fringes of the upper echelon on defense at home, allowing the fifth-fewest points (17.6), yards per play (4.9) and total yards per game (291.1) in that split. The Bills also gave up an NFL-low 8.0 yards per completion in their home setting, and that doesn't bode well for Nix and Denver's passing game.
On the other side, MVP odds-on favorite Josh Allen has a daunting task in front of him as well in the form of the Broncos' own stalwart unit. However, Denver was a bit more giving on the road, allowing 332.2 yards per game (vs. 300.1 YPG at home) and 21.3 points per game (14.9 PPG at home). The Broncos can still cause plenty of disruption to any offense, but Allen is well rested after getting Week 18 off (minus one play) and will have his full complement of pass-catching weapons at his disposal after often having to manage with an injury-shortened crew throughout the season.
I expect a lower-scoring first half as the two teams get a feel for each other in the first two quarters. However, I can see the much more postseason-savvy field general and team eventually establishing rhythm over the course of the second half and grinding out a solid win with the help of a solid passing day from Allen.
- SGP: Bills moneyline and Josh Allen 225+ passing yards (-106 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Broncos @ Bills Prediction
Bills 24, Broncos 17
Although good defense often gets the better of good offense, I don't see that as the case here. Buffalo's home-field advantage is as real as it gets, and Allen and co. are on a mission to finally atone for so many recent missed opportunities. While Nix and the Broncos will not go quietly, Allen's deep postseason experience and talent are the X-factors that will carry the Bills to the next round.
