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Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
Two teams with no shortage of recent history between them face off at Highmark Stadium late Sunday afternoon in a game that could serve as a preview of another playoff matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
The Chiefs have the added incentive of trying to remain the NFL's lone undefeated team, and they get a key offensive weapon back in JuJu Smith-Schuster. Meanwhile, the Bills' offense is headed in the opposite direction healthwise, as two key targets have already been ruled out.
With a strong possibility of a highly competitive game, we break down odds and best bets.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Chiefs +112 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Bills -130 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: Chiefs +2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Bills -2 (BetRivers Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 46.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Over 46 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
This spread has seen interesting movement to say the least, as the public has gotten and stayed on Buffalo despite the fact the Bills are the more short-handed of the two teams. The Chiefs were actually one-point road favorites prior to Week 10 action, and they ran their record to 9-0 with a close win over the Broncos. Nevertheless, the number flipped to Buffalo -1 in the aftermath of last Sunday's games and has gone as high as 2.5 at some sportsbooks as late as Friday night, even with the confirmation that both Keon Coleman (wrist) and Dalton Kincaid (knee) will miss the game.
The total sat at 47 points before Week 10 action, and it then experienced a sharp drop to 45.5 in the immediate aftermath of last Sunday's games. Bettors subsequently pushed it back up to 46.5 and it's pinged between that figure and 45.5 over the last few days. This is one area where the Bills' confirmed absences may play at least a small role in keeping expectations more modest.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills Betting Picks
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The Chiefs-Bills series has had a curious trend in recent years. While the Chiefs have handed Buffalo playoff losses in three of the past four seasons, Allen and co. have recorded regular-season wins of 18, four and three points during that same span. The only break in that pattern came in October 2020, when KC toppled the Bills by a 26-17 score in Orchard Park, albeit under COVID-19 conditions.
The defending champions' will put their undefeated record at serious risk in this latest meeting, but KC looks well suited to keep an unblemished record. While Isiah Pacheco remains sidelined by his broken leg, veteran Kareem Hunt has stepped into the void and delivered impressive results. Hunt has already eclipsed the 100-yard mark twice and has recorded five rushing touchdowns in six games. The talented back now gets a crack at a Bills defense that's allowed 123.2 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry to running backs specifically. Buffalo has also conceded a league-high 66 receptions, 545 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns to the position, which sets up very favorably for a back as versatile as Hunt.
Kansas City's offense also gets back a key target in Smith-Schuster, who already displayed impressive chemistry with Patrick Mahomes this season, posting a 7-130 line on eight targets against the Saints in his last full healthy contest before a hamstring issue that cost him almost four full games. Smith-Schuster returns to a receiving corps that now includes DeAndre Hopkins, who's also carved out a solid role already in the air attack following his trade from the Titans.
In comparison, Allen will work with a short-handed pass-catching crew. The absences of Coleman and Kincaid will have an impact against a quality defense like Kansas City's, which has allowed just 200.5 passing yards per road game and a miserly 188.7 overall in the last three contests. Additionally, it appears Amari Cooper is likely to return to action from his own wrist injury, but the veteran will play with a short cast if he does suit up and could therefore face challenges when it comes to bringing in Allen's throws.
Then, any hopes of balance for the Bills' offense faces an uphill battle. The Chiefs have allowed a league-low 473 rushing yards to running backs at an average of just 3.2 yards per carry. That presents quite the challenge for James Cook and Ray Davis, a talented duo that could nevertheless find running room at a premium. If Allen, already working with reduced weaponry, can't lean on his backfield to help take some pressure off, pulling off a victory becomes all that more difficult.
Ultimately, I will take advantage of the Chiefs' status as underdogs and also pairing that bet with a successful all-around day for Hunt against a Bills defense generous to running back production.
Chiefs at Bills Best Bets:
- Chiefs +2.5 (-110 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
- SGP: Chiefs +2.5 and Kareem Hunt Over 78.5 rushing + receiving yards (+168 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chiefs @ Bills Prediction
Chiefs 24, Bills 21
The Chiefs keep finding ways to squeeze out wins, and I feel this week will ultimately become more of the same. Granted, I see a highly competitive game, and would have gone with the Bills in a similarly close result it the offense could play at full health. However, Mahomes having a more fully stocked shelf makes the difference for me in a game I think gets decided by a field goal or less.
