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NFL Picks: Circa Millions Week 17
ALMOST THERE!!! Week 17 was once the final week of the NFL regular season. Your fantasy season was done, unless you had a complete psychopath for a commissioner who believed in having a final week championship game. There may have been a few divisions and seedings for the postseason that had to be decided, but nowadays, this is it for most teams.
If you had Philly last weekend on my word, I do apologize. But, really, of all games, Jalen Hurts gets a concussion in a likely blow out. Come on, bro. None of that this week. Let's go hunting.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers | Total: 50.5
The rematch of the 2023 NFC Championship game. Technically this game was played on January 28th of this year. So these two teams will meet for the second time in 2024. That was a tough go for Detroit after coughing up a three-possession lead for a Super Bowl berth. The stakes this time around are still sky-high for Detroit, but not so much for the 49ers.
Detroit has dealt with a CVS receipt list of injuries this year, particularly on their defense. It would actually be faster to mention who hasn't been hurt. Before their loss a couple weeks ago to Buffalo, the Lions had won 11 games in a row, and were looked at as clearly best team in the NFL. A loss to the Bills, that saw Jared Goff have a career game where he came up just short of 500 pass yards to go along with five pass tuddies in a Herculean 42-point offensive effort, basically knocked the Lions out of this "dominant" team stature in a lot of people's minds. Obviously they got gashed by Buffalo and Josh Allen who accounted six TDs (first ever three rush/three pass), but still the narrative all of a sudden changed.
For most people, the Lions may have peaked too early or are just too injured to be better than the Eagles or Chiefs etc. What's bigger than the perception of them after that loss is where Detroit currently stands. Currently, they are the top seed in the NFC, but are standing over a cliff with the Vikings' ships quickly approaching to invade and pillage their lands like back in the Leif Erikson era.
So remember, this game has a lot of implications for the Motor City.
Without David Montgomery, the offense isn't as good, but it's still excellent. That's because the demon spawn love child of Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Charles birthed Jahmyr Gibbs, a.k.a. "Sonic." He ranks 7th in the NFL with 1,156 rush yards despite his 209 carries placing just 15th, proving what kind of production the Alabama product has managed in a split backfield. With Gibbs showing he can handle the lion's share (pun intended) of the work load, the ground game is extremely effective. That of course allows Goff to continue his MVP level play, primarily in the form of play-action, where he ranks first in attempts (192) and yards (1,957).
With weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta in the pass game, accompanied by Gibbs out of the backfield, this Detroit team should continue their torrid offensive scoring barrage of 32.9 PPG (best in NFL). The 49ers defensive isn't bad, but nowhere near the unit we're accustomed to seeing. It's the same D that allowed 29 to Miami last week, 35 to Buffalo and 38 to Green Bay in the last six weeks.
I'm not of the belief that teams "have nothing to play for." While it may look like that on paper because they are out of the playoffs, it's not true. Guys still try to put good film together for a potential next job or to keep the one they currently have. There are financial reasons to play hard. San Francisco has some dudes looking to get paid in the near future, and that starts with Brock Purdy.
Purdy is capable of having a decent day against this Lions pass defense that's been destroyed by the injury bug. He has studs like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and even Jauan Jennings to throw to. The absence of Trent Williams, who is probably the best offensive lineman in football, is huge. The running game will likely trot out Patrick Taylor again. This SF team is a shell of itself for sure, but I wouldn't take them lightly by any stretch.
That said, Dan Campbell told the media even if Minnesota wins on Sunday, that his team is going balls to the wall for this game on Monday night. On paper, the game would be rendered virtually useless in the standings should Minny beat Green Bay as the NFC North and #1 seed would be decided next week in a matchup between these two. However, if the Vikes lose, then Detroit can wrap everything up with a win.
I'm of the belief we're going to see Detroit impose their will on Monday regardless of the outcome. And I would bet on it.
Pick: Lions -3.5 -104 FD
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Circa Millions Week 17 Picks
It's been a rough year for me in this contest. I do apologize. We can still close out strong.
Pick 1: Lions -4
See above.
Pick 2: Commanders -4
The Commanders are on the brink of locking up their first playoff berth since the 2020 season. In this new era of Washington football, they have the one thing they've missed for over a decade; hope. Jayden Daniels has shown he's the next superstar QB in the NFL. Playing a Falcons defense that doesn't get a lot of pressure, this Commanders offense should consistently move the ball downfield. Michael Penix, in just his second start, may have some trouble against a much improved defense of former ATL HC Dan Quinn.
Pick 3: Panthers +8
I took this before Chuba Hubbard was ruled out, so it is what it is. But let's give it up for Carolina. Like Washington, this team may have some hope after a second half turnaround. The Panthers took Tampa to the brink a few weeks ago. As one of the hottest ATS teams in the last two months, 8 points seems like a lot to lay. While Tampa's D has improved from earlier in the year, they're still susceptible to passes down the field.
Pick 4: Cowboys +9.5
The contest numbers giveth and taketh away. This line is pre-Jalen Hurts status declaration, which is about a two-point difference. Dallas has shown a lot of life despite having Cooper Rush as the QB1. Unfortunately, Cee Dee Lamb is also out now The simple fact is, I can't lay 9.5 points with a Kenny Pickett led team. The Eagles were a mess last week when Hurts went out.
Pick 5: Packers +1
A pure push-pull tug of war style line. There are so many playoff implications in this game. It's really a coin flip. I'm of the belief that Minnesota isn't as good as their record, and have gotten lucky in some of their wins in the last 4-6 weeks. But Green Bay should move the ball on this defense, and if they commit to the run, I think it will make the difference.
Best of luck.
