This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
Week 4 is upon us, which means teams start going on their bye weeks. This clearly means fewer players available in the player pool. Up until now we have had 15 games to choose from (not including Thursday night). This is where my game selection point comes in to play. We have to find the hidden advantage in certain games in order to prosper. After going through all the pricing on FanDuel and DraftKings, there is plenty of value out there this week, and I hope this will help you make the right decisions for your DFS teams.
New Orleans Saints (-3) Vs. Dallas Cowboys (O/U 53.5)
This game will likely have the highest amount of players owned. We have Drew Brees going up against a Cowboys secondary that got exposed by Austin Davis. We have the Cowboys defense that give up the most points to tight ends going up against Jimmy Graham. On the other side, we have a Saints defense that is giving up 380 yard per game. And this game also has the highest Over/Under total this week. These two teams faced off against each other last season and the Saints put up 49 points – but the game was played in New Orleans. I have a few issues with this game personally. I am worried about Brees and his oblique, the high ownership of certain players in tournaments is a concern, and lastly I am worried this game will be a dud. Odds are I will be right about two of the three things, so lets look at players I don't expect to be highly targeted in this game.
Players To Consider
Tony Romo, QB, Dallas – I highly doubt Romo will be over 10 percent owned in tournaments Sunday. People hate Romo, they don't trust him and they fear him ruining their week. This is a really ignorant way to look at things in my opinion since Romo is a perfect target for tournaments given the fact that the Saints defense is atrocious. I would not be shocked if Romo threw 250-300 yards with 2-3 touchdown passes. And one interception, of course, that's a given.
Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans – The last time these two teams faced off the Saints used Darren Sproles, who is no longer on the team, heavily in the pass game. If they use Thomas in the same capacity, he could have a huge week. Thomas had a higher snap count than Khiry Robinson and was clearly the superior option last week. Thomas is a good tournament play.
Drew Brees, QB and Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans – I put Brees and Graham in one blurb because they are obvious plays. The problem is I expect them to be 30 percent owned in tournaments, which doesn't help your chances at winning. I personally will be fading both in tournaments but it will be difficult to fade them in cash games, especially Graham.
Philadelphia Eagles Vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5) (O/U 50.5)
This game is more appealing to me than the Saints/Cowboys matchup. With all of the attention being focused on the first we highlighted, ownership levels for the Eagles/Niners game will be lower.. Another observation is the line seems wrong to me. There is a lot to like in this game as both secondaries are weak, both teams have excellent receivers at fair prices, and both teams have quarterbacks who can rack up fantasy points. I think this game can fly over the total, and I will definitely be using a bunch of players from both sides in tournaments.
Players To Consider
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco – Crabtree leads the team in targets, and is clearly Colin Kaepernick's favorite target. With a reasonable price across the industry, I would have no problem using him as my WR1. The Eagles secondary proved last week that it's a joke and I expect a big game from Crabtree on Sunday.
Riley Cooper, WR, Philadelphia – Cooper is due for a touchdown. His production has been down, but his 5.7 targets per game is actually above the pace he set last season. Based on Cooper's price and opponent, he makes a great GPP play that creates significant cap relief.
Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco – If Davis plays on Sunday he might be the right player to use for operation "Fade Jimmy Graham". The Eagles have given up the third most points to tight ends this season, which makes Davis an elite play at the position if he is active.
I am going to suggest both Kaepernick and Foles as well. Both players will have solid games this Sunday and I would recommend either one for your DFS lineup.
Green Bay Packers (-2) Vs. Chicago Bears (O/U 50)
Another week, another division rivalry game for the Packers. I expect this game to go under the radar with most DFS players who are still feeling the fire from Rodgers burning them last week. But this is a game you don't want to fade. There are a lot of holes in both defenses that offer some great value. I would not be shocked one bit if this game went over the total since the general public still thinks the Bears defense is elite.
Players To Consider
Alshon Jeffrey, WR, Chicago – Despite a strong Week 3 performance, his price hasn't changed on DraftKings yet. He looked good and I expect him to continue posting solid numbers. I prefer him over Brandon Marshall simply based on pricing.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay – Lacy's price has plummeted due to his poor performances in the first three weeks, but look at the rush defenses he has faced: Seahawks (fifth), Jets (first), and Lions (second). He goes up against the much weaker Bears rush defense, which is ranked 26th. There is a lot of upside here, and I would have no problem using Lacy as my RB2 or flex this week.
Matt Forte, RB, Chicago – Forte falls into the same category as Lacy, as he has also faced excellent rush defenses so far this year: Bills (sixth), 49ers (seventh) and Jets (1st). His results are better than Lacy thus far, and the Packers rush defense is worse than the Bears, but Forte's price is much higher. Forte is due for a big game, and this might be the right spot for him.
Additional options
Here are a few more players to consider this week:
Golden Tate, WR, Detroit – Tate makes a great play in cash games. I expect most the attention to be on Calvin Johnson, which should result in some extra targets for Tate. By now you should know I love to pick on the Jets secondary and this is a great value play.
Indianapolis Colts D/ST – Keep an eye out on who starts for the Titans this week. If Charlie Whitehurst is in and Locker is out, use the Colts' D/ST. Whitehurst has not earned any respect and the Colts defense could make his start a nightmare.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis – I'm pretty sure Luck will be under owned this week with all the focus on Brees and other options. After watching last week's game, I expect the Colts to continue running up the score with no mercy. They suffered backlash with their conservative play calling after the Eagles loss, and the Colts don't want to repeat that.
Steve Smith, WR, Baltimore – Revenge is the theme for this pick. Smith is a very vindictive person on the field, and I expect him to play his hardest against his former team this weekend. He is priced reasonably and he can easily slide in as your WR2.
