This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
The Games
| Over/Under | Road Team | Road Implied Total | Home Team | Home Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44.5 | Cleveland Browns | 23.25 | Houston Texans | 20.75 |
| 43.5 | Miami Dolphins | 19.5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 24 |
Quarterback
- Joe Flacco
at HOU ($6,100)
When Flacco was sitting on his couch a couple months ago, it would've been wild to suggest that he'd be starting for a playoff team, especially one who's favored at the road. It would've been even crazier to think he'd project better than Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and C.J. Stroud, but that's precisely the case. Flacco finished the regular season with four consecutive games with more than 300 passing yards while scoring 22-plus fantasy points in each. Contrast that with Mahomes, who managed to top 22 fantasy points just three times all season. Also consider that the Browns are playing in a dome while the Chiefs and Dolphins are expected to face frigid conditions. That's a big reason why the Browns-Texans have a slightly higher total. All of this before mentioning that Flacco is considerably cheaper than the other three QBs on a slate who don't offer much for salary relief. That makes him a lock for cash games.
- Patrick Mahomes
vs. MIA ($7,100)
I almost feel obligated to highlight Mahomes as he projects for the most raw points at the position and is expected to be the second most popular after Flacco. My inclination is to fade the QBs in that game. Partly because temperatures are expected to creep below zero and partly because neither Mahomes or Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000) has shown much of ceiling this season. Tagovailoa is at least interesting for GPPs in that almost no one is going to roster him. I have more interest in taking a chance on C.J. Stroud ($6,800). The matchup is tough, but he proved people wrong all season and pairing him with Collins and/or Schultz makes perfect sense in tournaments.
Running Back
- Isiah Pacheco vs. MIA ($6,400)
Last time we saw Pacheco, in Week 17, he carried 18 times for 130 yards while catching seven passes for 35 yards and a TD on his way to 32 fantasy points. After resting a shoulder injury last week, he's fully healthy for matchup in the elements, which could favor the running backs. Either way, he's the every down back for a home favorite with the highest implied total, making him a lock for cash games.
- Devin Singletary
vs. CLE ($5,700)
Singletary projects as well as Pacheco. He's coming off 25 touches last week and the Texans figure to lean on him heavily again to combat the Browns' fierce pass-rush. There isn't much of a decision at RB for cash games. Singletary and Pacheco project as the best values and will be the two most popular. However, fading either in tournaments looks like one of the best ways to get leverage on this slate. Jerome Ford ($5,500) remains involved in the passing game and caught two TDs in Flacco's last start. That's all the evidence I need to pair them Saturday. De'Von Achane ($6,800) and Raheem Mostert ($6,700) will be the lowest owned of the bunch. I prefer Achane as he's more explosive and more likely to score a long touchdown.
Wide Receiver
- Amari Cooper at HOU ($6,800)
Cooper sat out the final two weeks of the regular season as he dealt with a heel injury but he practiced fully Thursday and is without an injury designation entering Saturday. It will be his second consecutive game against the Texans in Houston as he hasn't played since the Week 16 matchup when he exploded for 54 fantasy points on 11 catches for 265 yards and two scores. From a point-per-dollar standpoint, he and Nico Collins ($7,000) project as the best value. Collins is also coming off a massive game after he led Houston to the playoffs with nine catches for 195 yards and a score last week against the Colts. He, Cooper and Rashee Rice ($6,600) will be the three most-popular WRs on the slate and will be similarly owned. I prefer the two inside the dome.
- Tyreek Hill
at KC ($8,700)
I chose to highlight Hill because he's going to be significantly less popular than the aforementioned Cooper, Collins and Rice. We rarely get the opportunity to roster Hill for leverage, and that's especially true on a two-game slate where his ceiling could really separate from the pack. Despite the cold weather, you'd have to imagine that he'll be raring to go for a matchup against his former team. Jaylen Waddle ($6,500) will be even less popular and makes sense as a direct pivot off of Rice for the same salary at half the ownership. Moving to the cheaper range, Elijah Moore ($4,000) fits well in Flacco stacks. The Chiefs have plenty of cheap WRs if you're willing to play a guessing game. Justin Watson ($3,400) probably sees the most snaps of those not named Rice. Mecole Hardman ($3,100) could see an increased role after catching six of 11 targets last week. It's more likely that Kelce and Rice will draw the majority of the targets.
Tight End
- David Njoku at HOU ($5,600)
Njoku has at least six catches in four consecutive games with four touchdowns in that span. He's topped 90 yards receiving in three. It's no coincidence that's when Flacco took over at QB and they formed an instant connection. I see no reason for that to change. Njoku has been a star the last month and gets a favorable matchup in a dome.
- Travis Kelce vs. MIA ($6,100)
The Chiefs' offense, and specifically Kelce, struggled most of the season but especially lately. Kelce has gone six games without a touchdown and hasn't eclipsed 100 yards since Week 7. The good news is that his salary has dropped considerably. I can envision a game plan that includes a variety of short passes and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Kelce much more involved now that the season is on the line.
Dalton Schultz ($4,400) offers much needed salary relief. He's been good this season and might get a few more short targets in response to the threat Myles Garrett poses. All three of the TEs I listed are projected for similar ownership, so there's no edge to be had there. They're all good options and I think it makes sense to roster two in many cases.
Defense/Special Teams
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. MIA ($2,900)
The Chiefs ($2,900) are cheap and will be the most popular, which makes them my preferred option for cash games. All four are viable in tournaments. The Browns ($3,300) can always wreak havoc with Myles Garrett and Co. In general, though, I'd rather target the game that's played in sub-zero temperatures than the one in the dome.
