DraftKings NFL: Week 11 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's slate includes 11 games and only three have totals higher than 46. The Bears-Falcons matchup has the highest total and features the electric Justin Fields, who's amazed with 225 rushing yards the last two weeks. The Browns-Bills matchup has been moved out of snowy Buffalo and into the dome in Detroit. The total jumped eight points as a result and it now looks like a great spot for the Bills. The Cowboys-Vikings matchup will probably be the most popular target considering its shootout potential and the fact that both teams have appealing options at every position. 

Looking at the slate as a whole, there is not the type of chalk we've seen in recent weeks. Tony Pollard could be, but it looks like Ezekiel Elliott  will return. That news will be important to monitor. Regardless, there isn't going to overwhelming chalk at any of the other positions either, which really opens things up for tournaments. With many similar options and few elite ones, it's easier to stomach fading some of players who are going to be relatively popular. Finding leverage in the right spots is the key to winning large-field GPPs.  

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, combined with passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Tony Pollard at MIN ($6,500)

Pollard had another big game last week in place of the injured Ezekiel Elliott, rushing 22 times for 115 yards and touchdown while adding three catches. He's clearly underpriced for the volume of work he sees in Elliott's absence and he's yet to let anyone down in these spots from a DFS perspective, which would lead to him being the most popular RB on the board should Elliott miss again. He'd be a must in cash games based off that alone. If Elliott ends up playing, Dameon Pierce ($6,500) looks like pretty good value at home against Washington and could be rostered in place of Pollard for the same price. David Montgomery ($6,100) also projects reasonably well with the news that Khalil Herbert was placed on IR. and the Bears have a favorable matchup against the Falcons. 

• WR Terry McLaurin at HOU ($5,900)

McLaurin will be one of the most popular WRs this week based on his bargain price and a soft matchup against the Texans. McLaurin has drawn at least eight targets in four consecutive games and is coming off his best game of the season on Monday night against the Eagles when he caught eight of 11 targets for 128 yards. He's seen a significant bump in usage since Taylor Heinicke replaced Carson Wentz and I expect that continue. Again, the fact that he'll be one of the most popular WRs is enough reason to roster him in cash games. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Josh Allen vs. CLE ($8,500)

QB Justin Fields at ATL ($7,600)

QB Dak Prescott at MIN ($6,600)

QB Kirk Cousins vs. DAL ($6,100)

QB Daniel Jones vs. DET ($5,700)

RB Saquon Barkley vs. DET ($8,900)

RB Josh Jacobs at DEN ($7,500)

RB Joe Mixon at PIT ($7,400)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. NYJ ($6,700)

RB Dameon Pierce vs. WAS ($6,500)

RB Tony Pollard at MIN ($6,500)

RB David Montgomery at ATL ($6,100)

WR Stefon Diggs vs. CLE ($8,300)

WR CeeDee Lamb at MIN ($7,500)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown at NYG ($7,200)

WR Michael Pittman vs. PHI ($6,100)

WR Courtland Sutton vs. LV ($6,000), if Jerry Jeudy is out

WR Terry McLaurin at HOU ($5,900)

WR Garrett Wilson at NE ($4,900)

WR Parris Campbell vs. PHI ($4,300)

WR Ben Skowronek at NO ($3,900)

TE Dalton Schultz at MIN ($4,300)

TE Tyler Higbee at NO ($4,000)

D/ST Houston Texans vs. WAS ($2,400)

D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers vs. CIN ($2,300)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Cleveland Browns (20.25) at Buffalo Bills (28.25)

BROWNS

In terms of DFS appeal, the Browns-Bills matchup flipped on it's head with Thursday's news that the game has been moved to Detroit due to blizzard conditions in Buffalo. The total jumped from 41.5 to 48.5, making it the second-highest on the slate and a good spot to stack one of the offenses in football. As far as the Browns go, they have a couple of decent options in Amari Cooper ($6,400) and Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,600). Cooper disappointed last week with only three catches for 32 yards, but he won't be as popular this week and has proven he has a ceiling with three games of 25-plus fantasy points on the season. Peoples-Jones caught five passes for 99 yards last week and nearing came down with a couple of other deep balls. That makes four consecutive weeks that he's had a reception of at least 37 yards. I don't have much interest in Jacoby Brissett ($5,400), but Buffalo's defense just allowed 357 yards to Kirk Cousins and 327 to Kenny Pickett a few weeks ago. Almost no one will roster Nick Chubb ($8,200), but he's proven time and again that he can succeed in any matchup. He's usually a good leverage option, but not this week. The high likelihood of a trailing game script means fewer rushing attempts, and he doesn't do enough in the passing game to pay off his salary. 

BILLS

With the game now indoor, Buffalo has the highest implied total on the slate. Cleveland's defense just allowed 39 points to the Dolphins and has given up big plays and involved in high-scoring games all season. This should be a great bounce-back spot for Josh Allen ($8,500) and the Bills, who are coming off consecutive losses after last week's heartbreaker to the Vikings. Despite only one TD pass in those two games, Allen still scored 25-plus thanks to his legs as he rushed for more than 80 yards in each. It goes to show how high his ceiling is when everything comes together. Stefon Diggs ($8,300) matched a season-high with 12 catches last week and it was the fourth time in five weeks that he topped 100 receiving yards. He projects among the best value on the slate in point-per-dollar terms. Gabe Davis ($6,300) is coming off a season-high 10 targets and his fifth TD. He usually a good option in stacks because he's rarely overly popular and that's the case again this week. If Isaiah McKenzie (illness) were to miss, Khalil Shakir ($3,000) would be a nice value option for the minimum salary. Dawson Knox ($3,200) always has two-touchdown upside and won't be popular either. 

• Favorite Stack: QB Allen + WR Diggs + WR Davis + WR Peoples-Jones

Dallas Cowboys (24.5) at Minnesota Vikings (23)

COWBOYS

The Dallas-Minnesota matchup looks appealing for a few reasons. It features the closest spread on the slate and should be fast-paced and competitive. Both teams were involved in shootouts last week and both defenses gave up 30-plus points. Each side has players who project among the best at their position. Dak Prescott ($6,600) is coming off three touchdown passes last week against the Packers. It was his second straight game with 20-plus and he seems like a bit of a bargain for the ceiling he offers. CeeDee Lamb ($7,500) just had his best game of the season after scoring a massive 41 fantasy points thanks two 11 catches, 150 yards and two scores. Dalton Schultz ($4,300) caught six for 54 and scored his first TD. Both Lamb and Schultz project among the top value at their respective positions. Same goes for Tony Pollard ($6,500), assuming Ezekiel Elliott misses again. Pollard had another big game last week and would probably be the most popular running back on the slate if Elliot is out. Michael Gallup ($5,100) would offer leverage as a contrarian option. He's drawn at least six targets in consecutive games and has a higher ceiling than most in his salary range. 

VIKINGS

Depending where you look around the industry, Kirk Cousins ($6,100) actually projects as the No. 1 or No. 2 QB from a point-per-dollar standpoint. Either way that isn't something you normally associate with Cousins. He's scored at least 16 fantasy points in five consecutive games while topping 20 points three times in that span. He's definitely a few hundred dollars too cheap and will be relatively popular as a result. Justin Jefferson ($9,100) is coming off another ridiculous performance with 10 catches for 193 yards and a touchdown. Arguably the best WR in the league, he almost single-handedly won the game for Minnesota and has the highest ceiling of any skill position player on the slate. Adam Thielen ($5,500) would be a decent contrarian option for leverage. He's surprisingly drawn at least seven targets in all but one game this season and he's still good enough to turn one or two of those into touchdowns. T.J. Hockenson ($5,300) has settled in nicely and has already become a favorite target of Cousins. Hockenson has caught 16 of 19 targets in two games for the Vikings and that has him projected among the best at his position. Dalvin Cook ($8,000) will go overlooked like he usually does. He's actually been really good recently and has scored well too, topping 25 fantasy points in three of his last five. He makes sense as a leverage option off of Jefferson in Cowboys stacks. 

• Favorite Stack: QB Prescott +  WR Lamb + TE Schultz + RB Cook or WR Jefferson

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Stefon Diggs + WR Amari Cooper +/- TE Dawson Knox

QB Lamar Jackson + WR DJ Moore + TE Mark Andrews

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown and/or WR DeVonta Smith + WR Michael Pittman

QB Jalen Hurts + RB Jonathan Taylor + WR DeVonta Smith

QB Justin Fields + WR Darnell Mooney + TE Kyle Pitts

QB Justin Fields + RB Cordarrelle Patterson or WR Drake London + TE Cole Kmet

QB Joe Burrow + WR Tee Higgins + WR George Pickens + TE Hayden Hurst

QB Joe Burrow + WR Tee Higgins + WR Tyler Boyd + TE Pat Freiermuth

QB Dak Prescott + WR Michael Gallup + TE Dalton Schultz + WR Jefferson or RB Cook

QB Kirk Cousins + RB Tony Pollard + WR Justin Jefferson + WR Adam Thielen or TE T.J. Hockenson

QB Daniel Jones + RB Saquon Barkley + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Stefon Diggs vs. CLE ($8,300)

I mentioned above that Diggs projects as the best point-per-dollar value at WR which is really saying something considering his price. He's coming off a season-high 12 catches and has topped 100 receiving yards in four of his last five games. The Bills have a great matchup against the Browns, especially after the game was moved indoor at Detroit. Not only is Diggs good value but he has the upside to be the highest-scoring player on the slate.

• RB Saquon Barkley vs DET ($8,900)

Barkley had a whopping 35 carries for 152 yards and a TD last week as the Giants continue to get the ball in his hands as much as possible. It's been nice to see him fully healthy and relishing the workhorse role everyone expected when he was drafted second overall. Sunday's matchup at home against Detroit is one of the better spots a running back could ask for as the Lions have been shredded on the ground all season. There seems to be plenty of cheaper options at WR and not so many at RB, which makes spending up for Barkley even more appealing. 

Honorable Mentions: QB Josh Allen ($8,500); WR Justin Jefferson ($9,100); RB Dalvin Cook ($8,000)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range

• QB Kirk Cousins vs. DAL ($6,100)

Apart from Josh Allen, Cousins projects as the best value on QB in point-per-dollar terms. The matchup against Dallas is going to be popular target for game stacks considering its shootout potential. It's not that I don't like Cousins, I just don't really like a popular Cousins. He's scored more than 20 fantasy points only three times this season and has never scored more than 25. I'm looking for a big ceiling game out of quarterback, so I'm more interested in rostering the likes of Allen, Fields and even Hurts. If I'm targeting the Vikings-Cowboys matchup, I prefer the Dak Prescott ($6,600) side and you could still roster Jefferson or Cook in that case. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Garrett Wilson at NE ($4,900)

Wilson has 14 catches for 202 yards the last two games and with Corey Davis still out, he'll get another chance as the Jets clear-cut No. 1 WR for Sunday's matchup against the Patriots. Wilson has shown plenty of promise and has all the talent to be a top WR. He seems to have developed a nice connection with Zach Wilson, which should continue. I'll mention a couple other cheap WRs in good spots. Parris Campbell ($4,300) has drawn 9, 11 and 12 targets in the last three games that Matt Ryan has started at QB. He's likely to be the chalkiest in this range. Ben Skowronek ($3,900) has a great opportunity for the Rams in the absence of Cooper Kupp. So does Van Jefferson ($4,500), who probably has more upside due to his big-play ability. Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,600) has a reception of at least 37 yards in four consecutive games and is coming off a season-high nine targets. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Daniel Jones vs. DET ($5,700)

QB Marcus Mariota vs. CHI ($5,500)

RB Kenyan Drake vs. CAR ($5,900), if Gus Edwards is out

RB Najee Harris vs. CIN ($5,500)

RB Brian Robinson at HOU ($5,300)

WR Garrett Wilson at NE ($4,900)

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones at BUF ($4,600)

WR Mack Hollins at DEN ($4,500)

WR Van Jefferson at NO ($4,500)

WR Parris Campbell vs. PHI ($4,300)

WR Ben Skowronek at NO ($3,900)

WR Kendall Hinton vs. LV ($3,600), if Jerry Jeudy is out

TE Tyler Higbee at NO ($4,000)

TE Greg Dulcich vs. LV ($3,800), if Jerry Jeudy is out

TE Hayden Hurst at PIT ($3,500)

TE Dawson Knox vs. CLE ($3,200)

Injuries to Monitor 

• RB Ezekiel Elliott at MIN

Elliott is expected to play, but people thought he was going to play last week too and he ended up being ruled out on Sunday morning. This is the most important news on the slate as Tony Pollard ($6,500) stands to be the most popular running back if Elliot misses again. 

• WR Jerry Jeudy vs. LV 

Jeudy has yet to practice this week due to the ankle injury that forced him out last week. If he misses, Courtland Sutton ($6,000) would become a viable option in cash games. Greg Dulcich ($3,800) and Kendall Hinton ($3,600) would also be expected to see a bump in target share. 

Weather

• There really isn't much to be concerned about after the Bills game was moved to Detroit. There will be some wind in Baltimore and New York, but it's unlikely to have an affect on the passing games.