DraftKings NFL: Week 13 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 13 slates includes 10 games and features Eagles-Ravens as the marquee matchup, though it won't be popular from a DFS standpoint. Rams-Saints and Chargers-Falcons will be the popular targets for stacks. Underpriced Alvin Kamara and Chase Brown will comprise the chalk at RB while spending down at QB will remain the popular construction. As usual, I've highlighted the players who project best for cash games as well as some ideas for tournaments. Good luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Chase Brown ($6,200) vs. PIT 

This one is pretty simple. Brown is at least $1,000 too cheap in his role as the feature RB for one of the league's most potent offenses — expect him to be the most popular player on the board. He's averaging 27 touches for 131 yards in the last three games while playing 85 percent of snaps in that span, making him a virtual lock for cash games and a great tournament option.

• WR Tee Higgins ($6,600) vs. PIT

It's perfectly fine to roster multiple Bengals given how good their offense is, and Higgins projects as the best value per dollar among WRs priced less than $7,500. He went off for 33 fantasy points last time out after nine catches for 148 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. He performed similarly against the Ravens in Week 5 with nine catches for 83 yards and two scores. I realize the Steelers have a stellar defense, but so did the Chargers and Ravens. 

If you're looking for a punt at WR, David Moore ($3,500) projects best after drawing 10 targets against the Chiefs last week. Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo were traded and Jalen Coker is out injured. Moore has been playing nearly every snap in their absence and will be rostered for salary relief in cash games. Xavier Legette ($5,100) and Adam Thielen ($4,800) are leverage options for GPPs. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Justin Herbert at ATL ($5,600)

QB Anthony Richardson at NE ($5,500)

RB Alvin Kamara vs. LAR ($7,700)

RB Bijan Robinson vs. LAC ($7,300)

RB Chuba Hubbard vs. TB ($6,700)

RB Chase Brown vs. PIT ($6,200)

RB Bucky Irving at CAR ($5,800)

WR Puka Nacua at NO ($7,600)

WR Mike Evans at CAR ($6,700)

WR Tee Higgins vs. PIT ($6,600)

WR Drake London vs. LAC ($6,500)

WR Calvin Ridley at WAS ($5,700)

WR Brian Thomas vs. HOU ($5,500)

WR David Moore vs. TB ($3,500)

TE Taysom Hill vs. LAR ($5,000)

TE Evan Engram vs. HOU ($4,800)

TE T.J. Hockenson vs. ARI ($4,400)

TE Dallas Goedert at BAL ($4,300), if DeVonta Smith is out

D/ST Indianapolis Colts at NE ($2,800)

D/ST New York Jets vs. SEA ($2,500)

D/ST New England Patriots vs. IND ($2,500)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Los Angeles Chargers (24.25) at Atlanta Falcons (23.25)

CHARGERS

The absence of J.K. Dobbins (knee) likely will lead to the Chargers employing a more pass-heavy gameplan against the Falcons. It's a great matchup for it too as Atlanta has allowed the highest completion rate in the league while ranking last in sacks. Justin Herbert ($5,600) is playing the best football of his life under Jim Harbaugh and this is a spot to showcase that. He projects among the top value at QB and will be among the most popular. Ladd McConkey ($6,100) has six catches in back-to-back games and should see a bit more volume. He's been one of the more impressive WRs and proving capable of ceiling scores with 21 and 32-point showings in his last five. Quentin Johnston ($5,000) had a couple big drops Monday night against the Ravens and now almost no one will roster him Sunday. He caught a touchdown in three consecutive games before that and has put up 22-plus twice this season. He remains Herbert's favorite deep target and would offer all the leverage you need in GPPs. Will Dissly ($4,000) has at least four catches in six of the last seven. He's topped 15 points twice in that span and won't see much competition with backup Hayden Hurst out. With Dobbins out, Gus Edwards ($4,300) could see a majority of the carries. It's unknown how much Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal will mix in. Edwards is viable in tournaments as leverage off of Herbert but he was a wide range of outcomes. 

FALCONS

Atlanta is off a bye and Los Angeles comes in on a short week without its top RB. The Chargers defense just got run over by the Ravens. It's been an up-and-down season for Kirk Cousins ($6,000), but on paper this is a favorable spot. His salary is also down and so are those of his top weapons. Bijan Robinson ($7,300) projects among the best players on the board. Prior to the Falcons laying an egg two weeks ago against the Broncos, Robinson had topped 21 fantasy points in five consecutive games. He remains heavily involved in the passing game, averaging more than five catches in his last four. Drake London ($6,500) also projects among the best at his position and will be relatively popular. I wouldn't be deterred by his minor hip injury as he played through it against the Saints and caught eight of 12 targets for 97 yards. Darnell Mooney's ($5,600) price has dropped back to a reasonable point and makes sense for leverage and salary relief. He's been Atlanta's best deep threat and leads the Falcons in receiving yards. Almost no one will roster Kyle Pitts ($4,600), and I'm not going to recommend you do, but I also wouldn't rule it out for large-field GPPs after he hit a 25-point ceiling a month ago against Tampa Bay. 

• Favorite Chargers Stack: QB Herbert + RB Robinson + WR McConkey +/- TE Dissly
• Favorite Falcons Stack: QB Cousins + WR London or WR Mooney + WR McConkey

Los Angeles Rams (26) at New Orleans Saints (23.5)

RAMS

Since getting Cooper Kupp ($7,400) and Puka Nacua ($7,600) back, the Rams have picked up the pace considerably. They rank fifth in PROE and seventh in neutral pass rate the last month and have hit the second-most explosive pass plays (34) in that span. A matchup against the below-average Saints defense inside a dome is about as good as it gets for the passing game. Jameis Winston just threw for 395 yards there two weeks ago. Matthew Stafford ($5,800) has shown he's still capable of big fantasy outputs, with four-touchdown performances in two of his last five. Good value for his salary with plenty of upside, appealing for tournaments. Kupp and Nacua are two of the best options on the slate, with either capable of hitting 30-plus. Kupp's done it twice already, part of the reason he ranks second only behind Ja'Marr Chase in average points per game at WR. Kyren Williams ($7,200) has just one rushing touchdown in his last five and hasn't caught a pass in his last two. It's a good spot and he projects well, but I prefer other RBs and think Williams lacks a bit of upside now that Kupp and Nacua are firmly back in the fold. 

SAINTS

The Saints are fresh off a bye after putting up 35 points on the Browns two weeks ago. Their games are usually nice for stacking because they produce the fourth-most combined snaps while their offense generates explosive plays at a high rate and their defense allows them. It's been a nice combination for fantasy points. Taysom Hill ($5,000) broke the slate in Week 11 with a whopping 46.52 fantasy points after seven carries for 138 yards and three scores. If that wasn't enough, he added eight catches for 50 yards. I doubt that type of usage is sustainable but Hill's a strong option in all formats this week regardless. We just saw Saquon Barkley run absolutely wild against the Rams less than a week ago. Alvin Kamara ($7,700) is capable of similar and he projects as the top overall player in terms of value and raw points. A great option in all formats. The nice thing about New Orleans is you don't really have to worry about anyone else. Derek Carr ($5,100) rarely hits a ceiling with Hill healthy and Chris Olave still out. Juwan Johnson ($3,100) can be considered in large-field GPPs for cheap leverage. He's averaging three catches per game in his last seven and found the end zone last time out. 

• Favorite Rams Stack: QB Stafford + RB Kamara + WR Nacua +/- TE Hill
• Favorite Saints Stack: RB Kamara + WR Nacua + TE Hill 

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Lamar Jackson + WR A.J. Brown + WR Zay Flowers or TE Mark Andrews

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown + WR Zay Flowers or TE Mark Andrews 

QB Jayden Daniels + WR Terry McLaurin or WR Noah Brown + WR Calvin Ridley

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase or WR Tee Higgins + WR George Pickens

QB C.J. Stroud + WR Nico Collins + WR Brian Thomas or TE Evan Engram

QB Kyler Murray + WR Marvin Harrison or TE Trey McBride + WR Justin Jefferson or TE T.J. Hockenson

QB Anthony Richardson + WR Michael Pittman or WR Adonai Mitchell + WR Kendrick Bourne or TE Hunter Henry

QB Bryce Young + RB Bucky Irving or WR Mike Evans + WR Xavier Legette or WR David Moore 

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Puka Nacua at NO ($7,600)

Nacua has looked unstoppable since returning from a knee injury a month ago. He's averaging more than eight catches and 116 yards in the last three games. No need to worry about his 55 percent snap share in that span as he drew 14 targets in two. When he's on the field, Stafford looks his way first and Nacua is as dangerous with the ball in his hands as any WR in the league. The environment for fantasy points, inside a dome against a suspect defense, is one I want to target. The same way we did when Cleveland's trio of Jeudy, Tillman and Moore went for 255 receiving yards there two weeks ago. 

• RB Alvin Kamara vs. LAR ($7,700)

Kamara projects head and shoulders above the other elite RBs. Averaging more than 16 carries and five catches this season, his usage is similar to what we've seen from Christian McCaffrey in years past. The Saints remain decimated at WR with Olave and Shaheed still out. Kamara is underpriced with the Saints in a favorable spot at home and I want as much exposure as possible. 

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• QB Lamar Jackson vs. PHI ($8,000) and QB Jalen Hurts at BAL ($7,700)

Jackson and Hurts are expensive on a slate where spending up at RB and WR seems ideal. I feel better about the cheaper QBs than I do about the value at other positions. Also, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley lower the ceiling of Jackson and Hurts, respectively, due to all the yards and rushing TDs they're eating up. I'm confident enough that lineups can keep pace with the likes of Stafford, Herbert, Richardson, acting as salary relief. If that's all too obvious, I could've highlighted Kyren Williams ($7,200) based off what I wrote above in the "Passing-Game Stacks" section and the fact he'll be relatively popular.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• QB Justin Herbert at ATL ($5,600)

With J.K. Dobbins out, the onus will be on Herbert and the passing attack to carry the Chargers' offense. He's had to do that plenty of times throughout but not as much this season as Harbaugh has turned them into a more balanced outfit. Herbert always had massive potential and now he's blossoming into an elite quarterback. He's been consistent too, scoring at least 17.5 fantasy points in six consecutive games with spikes of 24 and 25. That would be plenty for just $5,600 and matchup against Atlanta is as good a spot as any to do it. The Falcons rank last in sacks and completion percentage allowed. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Matthew Stafford at NO ($5,800)

QB Justin Herbert at ATL ($5,600)

QB Anthony Richardson at NE ($5,500)

QB Bryce Young vs. TB ($4,700)

RB Bucky Irving at CAR ($5,800)

RB Gus Edwards at ATL ($4,300)

WR Noah Brown vs. TEN ($4,400)

WR Joshua Palmer at ATL ($4,300)

WR Adonai Mitchell at NE ($3,900)

WR David Moore vs. TB ($3,500)  

WR Kendrick Bourne vs. IND ($3,500)

WR Kayshon Boutte vs. IND ($3,400)

TE Dalton Schultz at JAX ($3,300)                                                                         

TE Juwan Johnson vs. LAR ($3,100)

TE Tommy Tremble vs. TB ($2,800)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR DeVonta Smith at BAL

Smith appears to be a true game-time decision as he manages a hamstring injury. If he's out, A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert would get bumps, with Goedert becoming viable for cash games. 

Weather

• It's going to be cold in Cincinnati for Steelers-Bengals with temps in the 20s and a bit of wind.
• Seahawks at Jets will see temps in the 30s with sustained wind and stronger gusts.