DraftKings NFL: Week 14 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's 10-game slate is a bit smaller than usual. The Vikings-Lions matchup really stands out as its 51.5-point total is five points higher than the next closest game. That means it's going to be a very popular target in tournaments. With the majority of the other games having lower totals, there just aren't as many players as usual that project well from a point-per-dollar standpoint. That likely will condense the chalk even more, making it easier and more advantageous to prioritize leverage in GPPs. Think back to last week when we had plenty of good spots to choose from and almost none ended up on winning lineups. Instead, Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith, players who were more or less afterthoughts, were the keys to winning all of the money. The point is to embrace the variance and take some risk. Good Luck. 

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, combined with passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Joe Mixon vs. CLE ($6,900)

Mixon is back healthy after clearing concussion protocol and gets a favorable matchup at home against the Browns, who've allowed the third-most fantasy points in the league to running backs this season and just lost their middle linebacker. Mixon is about $500 too cheap for this spot, which is why he projects as the top point-per-dollar value at RB. He'll be popular in cash-games, which is even more reason to roster him in that format. 

• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. MIN ($7,800)

I've highlighted St. Brown the last two weeks and there is no reason to change things now after back-to-back games of 30-plus fantasy points. The Lions-Vikings matchup is the best spot to target on the slate and St. Brown continues to put up gaudy numbers. He has at least nine catches in three of his last four while averaging double-digits targets in that span. The Vikings defense has shown little resistance and just gave up 370 passing yards to Mike White and the Jets. St. Brown will be popular and rightly so. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Josh Allen vs. NYJ ($8,300)

QB Joe Burrow vs. CLE ($7,000)

QB Geno Smith vs. CAR ($6,200)

QB Kirk Cousins at DET ($6,100)

QB Jared Goff vs. MIN ($5,600)

RB Derrick Henry vs. JAX ($7,900)

RB Dalvin Cook at DET ($7,300)

RB Joe Mixon vs. CLE ($6,900)

RB Tony Pollard vs. HOU ($6,700)

RB Travis Etienne at TEN ($6,400)

RB D'Andre Swift vs. MIN ($5,800)

RB Latavius Murray vs. KC ($5,200)

WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. CLE ($7,900)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. MIN ($7,800)

WR Amari Cooper at CIN ($6,200)

WR Garrett Wilson at BUF ($5,900)

WR DJ Moore at SEA ($5,500)

WR Adam Thielen at DET ($4,900)

WR Chris Moore at DAL ($3,400)

WR Kendall Hinton vs. KC ($3,400)

WR Phillip Dorsett at DAL ($3,000)

TE Greg Dulcich vs. KC ($3,400)

D/ST Dallas Cowboys vs. HOU ($3,800)

D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers vs. BAL ($2,800)

D/ST Carolina Panthers at SEA ($2,200)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Minnesota Vikings (24.75) at Detroit Lions (26.75)

VIKINGS

This matchup clearly stands out as the 51.5-point total is at least five points higher than every other game. Games at Ford Field in Detroit have averaged 61 points this season. As the weather gets colder across the country, this is one of only two games being played indoors this week. It's an obvious target for game stacks and will be popular, but there are ways to get different with plenty of viable options on each side. It's hard to ever get excited about rostering Kirk Cousins ($6,100), but he could easily throw for 300-plus yards here and if he throws two TDs to Justin Jefferson ($9,000) and one to either Adam Thielen ($4,900) or T.J. Hockenson ($5,100), then he's likely to be on winning lineups. Jefferson had his worst game of the season when these teams met Week 3, catching only three passes for 14 yards. He will be popular but not overwhelmingly so as his $9K price is $500 higher than any other player. Hockenson has drawn at least six targets in every game as a Viking and maybe has some extra motivation in a matchup against his former team. If you prefer stacking the Detroit passing game instead, Dalvin Cook ($7,300) would be a good option to pair. His salary is still down and he's had at least 22 touches in back-to-back games. We've seen the Lions defense give up plenty of big games to running backs. 

LIONS

There's finally some optimism in Detroit as the Lions have won four of their last five after blowing out Jacksonville last week. The market believe in them too as they're actually two-point favorites against the 10-2, first-place Vikings. Jared Goff ($5,600) torched the Jags for 340 yards and two scores. He's only thrown one interception in the last six games and is quietly putting together an impressive season. The connection with Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) is a big reason why. St. Brown is coming off another huge game last week after he caught 11 for 114 yards and two scores. He topped 30 fantasy points for the second consecutive game and you wouldn't be surprised to see him do it again. Despite the salary increase, he still projects as the top value at WR. DJ Chark ($4,300) just had his best game of the season after five catches for 98 yards. He's drawn at least five targets in back-to-back games and would offer leverage in large-field GPPs. We finally saw D'Andre Swift ($5,800) lead the Detroit backfield in snaps and touches last week after he had 14 carries and four catches for 111 scrimmage yards and a TD. I'm going to assume he see similar volume again and he'd be a bargain if he does. 

• Favorite Vikings Stack: QB Cousins + RB Swift + WR Jefferson + TE Hockenson
• Favorite Lions Stack: QB Goff + RB Swift + RB Cook + WR St. Brown  

Carolina Panthers (20) at Seattle Seahawks (24)

None of the these other matchups are that appealing for passing stacks. If you think Deshaun Watson can keep up with Bengals, Joe Burrow ($7,000) and his WRs have shown time and again they have the upside to break a slate. Pairing Josh Allen ($8,300) and the Bills with Garrett Wilson ($5,900) has potential if the Jets can stay competitive. The Carolina-Seattle matchup is straightforward and everyone is priced affordably. 

PANTHERS

Sam Darnold ($5,200) looked decent enough in his first start of the season. He threw for a TD and ran for another as the Panthers comfortably beat the Broncos. They weren't forced to pass as much as they should have to as underdogs on the road in Seattle. Whatever you think about Darnold, his return gives a boost to DJ Moore ($5,500), who's coming off 103 yards and a TD. He projects among the top point-per-dollar value at WR and has as much upside as anyone in his price range. If you'd rather be contrarian, D'Onta Foreman ($5,400) continues to impress after another 100-yard game last week. He could be rostered for leverage in larger-field GPPs. So could someone like Terrace Marshall ($3,600), who's cheap enough to make value on one play. I'm likely to just keep it simple with Moore as he looks like one of the better overall options on the board to me. 

SEAHAWKS

Seattle's running game is banged up with Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas yet to practice this week so they might have to lean even more on Geno Smith ($6,200). He's been a revelation this season and is now a massive favorite to win comeback player of the year. He's been great from a DFS perspective as well, especially of late as he's topped 20 fantasy points in four consecutive games. It's easy to pair him with DK Metcalf ($7,100), Tyler Lockett ($6,500) or even both depending on the contest. Both are coming off big games and neither will be overly popular. Noah Fant ($3,100) can also be considered. He's caught at least three passes in four straight and it doesn't take much more than a touchdown to make value at his price. 

• Favorite Stack: QB Smith + WR Moore + WR Metcalf and/or WR Lockett

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Garrett Wilson + WR Stefon Diggs or WR Gabe Davis

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown or WR DeVonta Smith + WR Darius Slayton

QB Patrick Mahomes + TE Travis Kelce + WR Jerry Jeudy or TE Greg Dulcich

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase + WR Amari Cooper or WR Donovan Peoples-Jones

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase + WR Tee Higgins or WR Tyler Boyd + TE David Njoku

QB Dak Prescott + WR CeeDee Lamb + TE Dalton Schultz + WR Chris Moore or WR Phillip Dorsett

 QB Mike White + WR Garrett Wilson + WR Stefon Diggs or WR Gabe Davis

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. CLE ($7,900)

Chase didn't seem limited at all last week by the hip injury that had kept him out since Week 7. He caught seven of eight targets for 97 yards and, more important, showed the skill and athleticism that makes him one of the league's best. With Joe Mixon expected to be the most popular Bengal on this slate, I like the idea of targeting Chase and the passing game instead. Prior to his injury, he'd recorded back-to-back two-touchdown games and this could be a spot for another one against a Browns defense that isn't very good anymore.

• RB Derrick Henry vs. JAX ($7,900)

It's been a struggle lately for Henry, who has four consecutive games with fewer than 88 rushing yards. The matchup at home against Jacksonville provides a great opportunity to get back on track with the Jaguars defense coming off a 40-point drubbing by the Lions. The Titans are banged up at WR and I'd expect that means they lean on Henry even more so than usual. We're used to seeing him priced more expensive in these spots and with most people spending up at WR these days, he won't overly popular. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Justin Jefferson ($9,000); RB Dalvin Cook ($7,300); QB Josh Allen ($8,300)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range

• TE Travis Kelce at DEN ($7,600)

A 44-point total is about the lowest you'll see for a Chiefs game. Most of the that is due to the Broncos offense, which is rather slow and hopeless. It seems unlikely that Kansas City will be pushed enough for Kelce to hit a ceiling and he needs to have a big game to pay off his high salary. There is a lot of opportunity cost at RB and WR, which makes it tough to spend up at TE as it is. Of course, he could always get there on efficiency as we've seen him do in the past, but I'm not willing to bank on it this week. For those who still plan on rostering Kelce, consider paring him with the other TE in that game, Greg Dulcich ($3,400), to save salary and add correlation.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR DJ Moore at SEA ($5,500)

Moore is coming off a nice game last week when he caught four balls for 103 yards and a TD against the Broncos. I don't think it was coincidence that it came in Sam Darnold's first start of the season. Say what you want about Darnold, but at least he can throw downfield and in my opinion, he gives Moore a much better chance to succeed than the other Panthers quarterbacks. The matchup against Seattle is actually one of the more favorable spots to target as the Seahawks, who already play fast, are likely to be without Kenneth Walker. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Chris Moore ($3,400); WR Phillip Dorsett ($3,000); TE Greg Dulcich ($3,400)

The Bargain Bin

QB Jared Goff vs. MIN ($5,600)

QB Tyler Huntley at PIT ($5,500)

RB Isiah Pacheco at DEN ($5,700)

RB D'Onta Foreman at SEA ($5,400)

RB Latavius Murray vs. KC ($5,200)

RB James Cook vs. NYJ ($4,600)

WR Adam Thielen at DET ($4,900)

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones at CIN ($4,900)

WR Zay Jones at TEN ($4,700)

WR Michael Gallup vs. HOU ($4,600)

WR DJ Chark at MIN ($4,300)

WR Chris Moore at DAL ($3,400)

WR Kendall Hinton vs. KC ($3,400)

WR Phillip Dorsett at DAL ($3,000)

TE Austin Hooper vs. JAX ($2,900)

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo vs. JAX ($2,700)

Injuries to Monitor 

• WR Amari Cooper at CIN

Cooper (hip) missed practice on Friday and is questionable. If he doesn't play, expect a bump in target share for Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku. I'd especially be looking at pairing Njoku with Burrow and Chase. 

• RB Saquon Barkley vs. PHI

Barkley (neck) has been trending in the wrong direction after showing up on the injury report Thursday. If he can't go, Matt Breida ($4,300) would become a viable option in GPPs based on the cheap price tag and his ability in the passing-game. 

Weather

• Some concern in Buffalo where there's likely to be rain/snow. As long as it isn't too windy, I wouldn't be overly worried about the passing games but it will be important to check closer to kickoff. If conditions worsen, it might be better to avoid Allen, Diggs, Wilson, etc.