This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
Unlike the past few weeks, we have a number of expected high-scoring games, with five of the 13 on the slate having totals of at least 48.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. There are elite players worth paying up for, but that task isn't as difficult as usual because myriad injuries have opened up significant playing time increases to players who are dirt cheap. We don't have Lamar Jackson, Michael Thomas or Frank Gore available, but don't worry, there are stars to be rostered.
RUNNING BACK
Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. SEA ($10,000): After failing to reach 25.0 fantasy points in back-to-back games, McCaffrey is back to an even $10,000 as he faces a Seahawks defense that's given up the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs on the 16th-most receptions and 21st-most (12th-fewest) targets. The reason we focus on receptions with McCaffrey is because he's performing like a high-volume wide receiver, with at least 12 targets in three of his last four games (48 over that span), but he also rushed for more than 53 yards in three of four. If there's a negative it's that three of those four games didn't include a touchdown, but obviously his floor is ridiculously high as he remains the clear focal point of the Panthers' offense. With plenty of value on the slate, particularly at running back, fitting in McCaffrey's salary shouldn't be a problem, though there are mid-level running backs who could have major impacts that fitting in McCaffrey from a positional perspective may not be completely necessary.
Chris Carson, SEA at CAR ($7,500): On the other side of McCaffrey's game is Carson, who faces a Panthers defense that has now allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including five rushing touchdowns in the past two games, which came against Washington and Atlanta. They've allowed at least one running back touchdown in every game since Week 4 (six of which were multiple scores), and the Seahawks are strong 6.5-point road favorites, giving reason to believe they'll use Carson quite a bit, especially with Rashaad Penny out for the season because of a torn ACL. With backup C.J. Prosise ($3,700) barely used even when he gets closer to the top of the depth chart, there should be plenty of volume for Carson, who usually gets more than 20 carries in games the Seahawks are leading in. Carson's price range is a popular one for good matchups, with Leonard Fournette ($7,600), Saquon Barkley ($7,700), Ezekiel Elliott ($7,800), Nick Chubb ($7,900), Aaron Jones ($7,300) and Josh Jacobs ($7,000) all having good to great matchups. Jacobs is dealing with a shoulder injury, and if he's forced to sit then DeAndre Washington ($4,700) could become incredibly popular against a Jaguars defense that's allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including at least two touchdowns in each of the past four games. Jacobs is obviously a great play if he's cleared, though you have to have some hesitation that he could get limited snaps if he takes a hard shot to his shoulder.
Patrick Laird, MIA at NYG ($4,500): Laird continues to act as Miami's lead back, and while he was fine last week against the Jets' strong run defense, he gets a better matchup this week against a Giants team that allowed nine, eight and 10 receptions to running backs in the past three games, respectively. Similar to McCaffrey (I can't believe I just wrote that), we need to look at the receiving opportunities for Laird because the rushing volume hasn't been overly high for a no. 1 back, getting three, 10 and 15 carries in the past three, respectively. He's at least trending in the right direction, and his lower salary is certainly helpful for spending up elsewhere. Washington would be a better play if Jacobs is ruled out, though Oakland is playing in the later part of the slate, so we may not even know Jacobs' status until Laird's game is well underway.
QUARTERBACKS
Deshaun Watson, HOU at TEN ($6,800): Jameis Winston ($6,900) certainly jumps out against a Lions defense that's allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, especially given his volume, but a broken right thumb and no Mike Evans (hamstring) puts some doubt into his ability to air it out as much as he has (he practiced fully Friday). Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill ($6,500) also sparks interest in the game with the highest total on the slate and against a defense that's allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, but it's a tough pill to swallow rostering him at his all-time highest price. That isn't to say he won't be owned, but I continue to struggle thinking this is the same guy we saw in Miami. Facing off against Tannehill is Watson, who was bad last week until two bailout rushing touchdowns got him to 30.08 fantasy points, his second consecutive game with more than 28.00. The return of Will Fuller (hamstring) would certainly be a boost for Watson, who faces a banged up Titans secondary that allowed multiple QB touchdowns in five of the past seven games.
Kyler Murray, ARI vs. CLE ($5,600): The Arizona defense has been awful this season, but an $800 difference between Murray and Baker Mayfield seems high despite the Browns only being 3.0-point favorites in a game with a 49.0-point total, the second-highest on the slate. Murray has been pretty poor of late, but his lower salary should be considered because the quarterbacks who have had success against the Browns' defense are running quarterbacks that fit Murray's game. Specifically, the Titans, Ravens, Seahawks, Bills and Dolphins are the teams whose quarterbacks scored more than 24.0 fantasy points against the Browns, and the clearest thing they have in common is mobile signal callers. Murray's not without risk, but you at least can see a bit of upside versus other guys in his salary range like Derek Carr ($5,600), Gardner Minshew ($5,500) or Kyle Allen ($5,400).
WIDE RECEIVERS
Chris Conley, JAX at OAK ($3,600): With D.J. Chark ruled out because of an ankle injury, Conley becomes the top deep threat for a team facing a Raiders defense that has allowed more pass plays of 20+ and 40+ yards than any other in the league. And it's not like there is only a little volume to work with, as Conley has been targeted at least five times in six of his last seven games. The only hesitation is that the Jaguars are able to utilize Fournette a ton and not necessarily pass that often, but Conley's price makes that risk easier to stomach. Meanwhile, we have a ton of cheap wide receivers because of a plethora of injuries, with Philadelphia's Greg Ward ($3,000) coming in after getting at least seven targets in two of the past three games, and Tampa Bay's Justin Watson ($3,700), who could be the biggest beneficiary of Evans' injury absence. Additionally, Isaiah Ford ($3,700), who caught six of nine targets for 92 yards last week, could keep his volume if DeVante Parker ($6,400) sits, though he practiced fully Friday even though he hasn't technically cleared concussion protocol yet. And while Kenny Stills ($4,100) could get some interest if Will Fuller ($5,600) is ruled out, Keke Coutee ($3,400) actually benefited the most last week, catching five of eight targets for 68 yards. Needless to say, there are plenty of pay-down options to make spending up elsewhere easier than normal.
Robert Woods, LAR at DAL ($6,200): Woods comes in with at least nine targets in each of his last four games, and he finally broke his touchdown-less streak last week, finishing with seven catches on nine targets for 98 yards while also adding 29 rushing yards. He's been significantly more productive than Cooper Kupp ($6,500) or Brandin Cooks ($4,500), and while a matchup against the Cowboys in Dallas isn't the easiest of matchups, they have allowed wide receiver touchdowns in four straight games. While Woods has had the target volume, A.J. Brown ($6,000) is a solid pivot after finishing with more than 130 receiving yards in two of his last three games, both of which included at least one touchdown, and he now faces the terrible Texans' secondary.
Kenny Golladay, DET vs. TB ($7,200): The potential is there for Golladay this week, as not only are the Lions without Marvin Jones (ankle), but they're facing a Buccaneers defense that's allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. You could make a case that Danny Amendola ($4,100) could see an uptick as well, though his low-yardage catches only go so far, while no. 3 wideout Chris Lacy ($3,000) should probably join the group discussed above because of his basement price. There was some concern about Golladay's volume before this week, but he has a perfect recipe for a breakout game. If you don't want to trust that David Blough ($5,300) will be able to get the ball to Golladay, the Browns' Jarvis Landry ($6,700) is in a fantastic spot against the Cardinals, who have given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers by a considerable margin. Any consideration for Landry means you're also looking at Odell Beckham ($6,400), though he's more suited for GPPs than cash games. D.J. Moore ($6,600) shouldn't have a volume problem after getting at least nine targets in seven straight games before only getting six last week, and there will surely be people on Chris Godwin ($7,700) this week because we know it's not going to be a Mike Evans week.
TIGHT ENDS
Zach Ertz, PHI at WAS ($6,000): There's little question that Ertz is the top tight end this week, as a rash of injuries to the Eagles' pass catchers leaves him as the dominant no. 1. He had a massive game last Monday against the Giants, catching nine of 13 targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns, the fourth time in the past five games he's had at least 11 targets. Oh, and Washington has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, including touchdowns in three of their last four games. That isn't to say that George Kittle ($6,200) isn't also in a great spot at home against the Falcons, and while he can blast through pretty much anyone, he doesn't have nearly Ertz's volume.
Tyler Higbee, LAR at DAL ($3,900): Higbee's price is the main reason why you may not want to play Ertz, as he comes in with 19 targets in the past two games, catching seven passes while eclipsing 100 yards in each one. He now faces a Cowboys defense that's allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends, and the Rams' increased use of 12 personnel lately should ensure Higbee stays on the field while Kupp and Cooks aren't around to steal targets. Playing both Ertz and Higbee isn't out of the question either, as you can make the case Ertz is better than any wide receiver in his price range, at least from a floor perspective. You have to pay up a bit for the tight end facing the Cardinals this week, as David Njoku ($4,200) will play his second game since returning from a wrist injury, while guys like Mike Gesicki ($4,000) and Ian Thomas ($3,100) are very reasonable pay-down pivots against Higbee's potential ownership.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Lions vs. TB ($2,300): This is significantly less about choosing the Lions than it is simply choosing the defense that's facing Jameis Winston, the league-leader in interceptions who is also third in sacks and fumbles. We don't have to look far to see that allowing points and yards to the Buccaneers doesn't matter, as the Colts finished last week's game against Tampa Bay with 11 fantasy points despite allowing 38 points and 542 yards in total offense. Three interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown, one fumble recovery and one sack helped them get there, and while the Lions' defense isn't great, Winston is always a threat to throw a passing touchdown for both teams.
