Exploiting the Matchups: Week 12 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

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Published on November 21, 2024

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Bo Nix (at LV) — 41% started

Start Over — Baker Mayfield (at NYG), Jared Goff (at IND), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NE), Jordan Love (vs. SF)

Nix has rightfully been one of the most popular adds this week, jumping from 48 percent to 64 percent on Yahoo after topping 20 fantasy points for a fourth time in the past seven games. He last fell shy of 14 points in a bad-weather game at the Jets on Sept. 29, thriving behind a combination of frequent scrambling and increasingly accurate passing. Nix should do well again this week, facing a Raiders defense that's given up the eight most fantasy points to QBs and the fourth most EPA per dropback (0.11).

Five of the past six quarterbacks to face Las Vegas topped 19 points — a stretch that started Week 5 when Nix had two passing TDs and a rushing score in a 34-18 victory. This version of the Raiders defense may be even worse, having opened the week with each of its top three cornerbacks absent from practice (Nate Hobbs missed Week 11, while the other two were injured during the game and didn't return).

With that injury to Jack Jones, the @Raiders are down all three starting cornerbacks.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

Bo Nix (at LV) — 41% started

Start Over — Baker Mayfield (at NYG), Jared Goff (at IND), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NE), Jordan Love (vs. SF)

With that injury to Jack Jones, the @Raiders are down all three starting cornerbacks.
— Vincent Bonsignore (@VinnyBonsignore) November 17, 2024

Other Good Matchups: Jayden Daniels (vs. DAL), Justin Herbert (vs. BAL), Patrick Mahomes (at CAR), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NE), C.J. Stroud (vs. TEN), Tommy DeVito (vs. TB)

Running Backs 👍

Brian Robinson (vs. DAL) — 68% started

Start Over — D'Andre Swift (vs. MIN), Rachaad White (at NYG), Javonte Williams (at LV)

Robinson returned from a two-game absence last week and took 16 of Washington's 18 RB carries prior to the final drive, scoring 14.2 PPR points against an elite Philadelphia defense in a 26-18 loss. He now gets a much, much better matchup, with the Commanders favored by 10.5 in a home game against the Cowboys — a team that's allowed the fourth most PPR points to running backs, along with league-high marks for EPA per carry (0.13) and success rate (47.1 percent) on designed runs. There's been no sign of improvement since a Week 7 bye, with Dallas ranking bottom five in YPC (4.9), EPA/carry (0.05) and success rate (45.0 percent) over the past four weeks.

I'm less optimistic about Austin Ekeler, whose run of three straight games with 17-plus PPR points includes two contests Robinson missed and another with nine targets on just 17 routes. Ekeler certainly is startable in deeper leagues or as a bye-week replacement, but he won't match last week's target rate and isn't likely to get the garbage-time work if the Commanders turn Sunday's game into a blowout (Jeremy McNichols has been the mop-up man this year).

Bucky Irving (at NYG) — 34% started

Start Over — Rico Dowdle (at WAS), Nick Chubb (vs. PIT), Javonte Williams (at LV)

Irving scored 15-plus PPR points in four of his last five games before a Week 11 bye while taking double-digit touches in each contest, including two instances of 16 touches when Rachaad White was also active. Liam Coen's well-schemed offense remained productive without any downfield threats, and while Mike Evans' impending return could shift volume back toward the WRs and away from the RBs, his presence also gives opposing defenses more to worry about and makes it riskier to stack the box.

The Giants are middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to running backs, but they've struggled against the run as the season has worn out, ranking 31st in success rate (48.9 percent), 32nd in EPA/carry (0.10) and 29th in YPC (5.1) over the past four weeks... which doesn't even include Week 7 when Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Gainwell combined for 232 rushing yards. While the Giants haven't yielded many TDs or a lot of receiving production to running backs, their full-season numbers for run defense aren't much better than those from the recent sample — they're bottom seven in EPA, YPC and success rate.

Other Good Matchups: Isiah Pacheco and/or Kareem Hunt (at CAR), Javonte Williams (at LV), Rachaad White (at NYG), Jaylen Warren (at CLE)

Wide Receivers 👍

Courtland Sutton (vs. LV) — 66% started

Start Over — DeVonta Smith (at LAR), Deebo Samuel (at GB), DJ Moore (vs. MIN)

The Raiders have given up the seventh fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers, but they've played lousy defense overall and now have all three starting cornerbacks in danger of missing the Week 12 contest. It's an ideal efficiency setup for Sutton, who has four straight games with at least eight targets, six catches and 70 yards, putting him on track for a 1,000-yard season despite struggling through Week 7. The recent production and upgraded matchup make him a solid WR2 for fantasy this week, ahead of some other wideouts that we've long viewed as lineup fixtures (see above).

Quentin Johnston (vs. BAL) — 26% started

Start Over — Christian Watson (vs. SF), Michael Pittman (vs. DET), Xavier Worthy (at CAR)

Johnston has been targeted on 21 percent of his routes in three games since returning from an ankle injury, catching eight of 15 passes for 190 yards and three TDs. His 16.8 aDOT and 16.1-yard average route depth in that span — both top 10 numbers league-wide — make the relatively high target rate all the more impressive/unlikely, with Johnston getting repeated deep shots from one of the league's better QBs. He doesn't always pass the eye test, but his role more than passes the sniff test, and this week he'll be playing at home against a defense that's given up the most PPR points to wide receivers.

The Ravens have Kyle Hamilton at strong safety and typically use top cornerback Marlon Humphrey in the slot, but their perimeter coverage and deep coverage has been a disaster all year, with three players rotating in and out of the FS spot and right cornerback Brandon Stephens allowing 633 yards into his coverage (second most among all players, per PFF). That's especially good news for Johnston, who has taken 66 percent of his snaps as a left-side perimeter receiver and should thus spend much of the night lined up across from Stephens. You don't even need to be a believer in Johnston long-term to take a shot on him in such a favorable spot; increased potential for multiple big plays outweighs the risk associated with such a downfield-heavy profile.

Other Good Matchups: Malik Nabers & Darius Slayton (vs. TB), Xavier Worthy & DeAndre Hopkins (at CAR), A.J. Brown (at LAR), Mike Evans (at NYG), Jaylen Waddle (vs. NE), Quentin Johnston & Joshua Palmer (vs. BAL),

Tight Ends 👍

Cade Otton (at NYG) — 38% started

Start Over — David Njoku (vs. PIT), T.J. Hockenson (at CHI), Dallas Goedert (at LAR), Jonnu Smith (vs. NE)

Don't be fooled by DvP stats that show New York allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. That's primarily a product of matchups, as the Giants haven't faced a top producer at the position all season and happened to run into the Browns and Eagles when their starters were out with injuries. No team has faced fewer TE targets (42), but it's also true that no team has allowed a higher catch rate (88.1 percent) on passes to the position. Otton should break the volume trend, functioning as Baker Mayfield's favorite short-area target while Mike Evans returns from a hamstring injury as the top downfield threat.

Other Good Matchups: Travis Kelce (at CAR), Dallas Goedert (at LAR), Theo Johnson (vs. TB), Brock Wright (at IND)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Matthew Stafford (vs. PHI) — 26% started

Start Instead — Geno Smith (vs. ARZ), Anthony Richardson (vs. DET), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. NE)

Stafford is back in business with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy, but this is the one week when the star wide receivers will line up against their ~~Eagles~~ equals on the other side of the ball. Rookie cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been fantastic, teaming up with Darius Slay to give the Eagles a strong claim for the top CB trio in the league (sorry, Gang Green). Philadelphia's defense is humming in general under Vic Fangio, allowing 280 or fewer yards in six straight games since a Week 5 bye, including matchups with the Bengals and Commanders.

Other Tough Matchups: Brock Purdy (at GB), Sam Darnold (at CHI) Jameis Winston (vs. PIT), Drake Maye (at MIA), Will Levis (at HOU), Gardner Minshew (vs. DEN)

Running Backs 👎

Rhamondre Stevenson (at MIA) — 75% started

Start Instead — Najee Harris (at CLE), Tyrone Tracy (vs. TB), Brian Robinson (vs. DAL)

The Dolphins haven't allowed more than 4.4 YPC or 62 rushing yards to a starting RB since Week 5, when Stevenson took 12 carries for 89 yards (and a TD) in a 15-10 loss to Miami. He missed the next game with a foot injury and has averaged 3.7 YPC or worse in five subsequent appearances, relying on short TDs and cheap PPR points (4.2 yards per catch this season) for fantasy production. Stevenson's workload makes him a lineup stalwart for some fantasy managers, but those of you that have other high-volume options should consider moving him to the bench this weekend.

Chuba Hubbard (vs. KC) — 45% started

Start Instead — Tony Pollard (at HOU), Rachaad White & Bucky Irving (at NYG)

Jonathon Brooks' potential debut isn't too concerning, especially with Miles Sanders (ankle) now unavailable, but expectations for Hubbard's production should nonetheless be lowered for Week 12. The Chiefs are favored by 11 points and have allowed the fewest PPR points to running backs, yet to yield even a single performance of 60-plus rushing yards. James Cook just became the first RB all season to score more than 13.2 PPR points against Kansas City, and he did it behind a pair of red-zone touchdowns while amassing just 27 yards on 14 touches. Hubbard will manage more yards than that, but he's also more likely to go without a touchdown, dealing with Bryce Young's limitations in addition to the difficult matchup.

Other Tough Matchups: Kyren Williams (vs. PHI), Jonathan Taylor (vs. DET), D'Andre Swift (vs. MIN), J.K. Dobbins (vs. BAL), Nick Chubb (vs. PIT), Tony Pollard (at HOU)

Wide Receivers 👎

DeAndre Hopkins (at CAR) — 60% started

Start Instead — Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. ARZ), Jauan Jennings (at GB), Josh Downs (vs. DET)

The concern here is really more about volume than efficiency, but it's also worth noting that the cornerback group (and interior O-line) has been the relative strength of an otherwise miserable Carolina team, limiting opposing WRs to middle-of-the-pack numbers in terms of both efficiency and volume. The larger concern is that Hopkins has drawn just nine targets in two games since his 8-86-2 showing on MNF in Week 9, with his snap and route shares not only continuing to sit south of 70 percent but actually dropping closer to 50 percent in last week's loss at Buffalo (44 percent snaps, 55 percent routes, 3-29-0 on four targets).

This upcoming matchup isn't as tough as that one, but Hopkins is more WR3/4 than the WR2 that some have tread him as since the huge MNF game against Tampa's ~~secondary~~ sieve. It's baffling to see his start rate on Yahoo in the same range as guys like JSN, Jennings and Downs that have been far more consistent in terms of both volume and production.

Jordan Addison (at CHI) — 26% started

Start Instead — Jaylen Waddle (vs. NE), Quentin Johnston (vs. BAL), Rome Odunze (vs. MIN)

Addison just had his most encouraging game of the year, with a 47-yard TD and a season-high-tying eight targets despite missing the fourth quarter with leg cramps in a 23-13 win at the Titans. However, it was just his second time all year with more than five targets, and he's not especially likely to enjoy another spike week in a Week 12 road matchup with a defense that's allowed the fewest PPR points to wide receivers. Packers WR Christian Watson beat the Bears for some big plays last week, but they've largely defended the pass well this year, led by star cornerback Jaylon Johnson. It's best to view Addison as a bye-week or injury replacement, not someone you're slotting in ahead of one of your regular starters.

Other Tough Matchups: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua & Demarcus Robinson (at PHI), CeeDee Lamb & Jalen Tolbert (at WAS), Justin Jefferson (vs. CHI), Jakobi Meyers (vs. DEN), Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy & Elijah Moore (vs. PIT), Keenan Allen (vs. MIN), Xavier Legette (vs. KC)

Tight Ends 👎

Mark Andrews (at LAC) — 76% started

Start Instead — Cade Otton (at NYG), Dallas Goedert (at LAR), Jonnu Smith (vs. NE)

Andrews was a near-every-down player Week 10 when Isaiah Likely was sidelined by a hamstring injury, but with his teammate back in the lineup for Sunday's loss at Pittsburgh, the 29-year-old dropped to 59 percent snap share, 51 percent route share, three targets and 4.2 PPR points. Andrews will now face another tough defense, and it's also a suboptimal matchup schematically, with the Chargers using zone coverage on 81.0 percent of dropbacks (third highest rate).

While many tight ends tend to beat up on zone defenses with short receptions, Andrews typically has been more productive against man coverage when catching passes from QB Lamar Jackson. That's definitely been the case this year, with Andrews producing 2.5 yards per route against man and 1.7 against zone. RB Justice Hill has a team-high 27.0 percent target rate versus zone coverages, followed by WR Zay Flowers (24.5), Likely (20.5) and then Andrews (18.9). The bigger problem, of course, is that Andrews has five or fewer targets in every game this season besides the one Likely missed.