Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.
Start/Upgrade 👍
Quarterbacks 👍
Drake Maye (at NO) — 51% started
Start Over — Daniel Jones (vs. ARZ), Matthew Stafford (at BAL), Jordan Love (vs. CIN)
The Saints finally looked decent last week, but that was against Jaxson Dart in the first game after Malik Nabers' ACL tear, with New York committing five turnovers en route to a 26-14 loss. Maye and the Patriots are a different story, coming off back-to-back wins in which Stefon Diggs went over 100 yards. Maye has been playing well all season, and now he's got at least one real receiving threat at each skill position (Diggs/Henry/Henderson). Maye should have fun playing indoors against a defense that allowed 8.0 YPA and nine passing TDs over the first four weeks of the season.
- Other Good Matchups: Jayden Daniels (vs. CHI), Dak Prescott (at CAR), Bo Nix (at NYJ), Matthew Stafford (at BAL), Jordan Love (vs. CIN), Geno Smith (vs. TEN)
Running Backs 👍
J.K. Dobbins (at NYJ) — 60% started
Start Over — Rico Dowdle (vs. DAL), Travis Etienne (vs. SEA), Kenneth Walker (at JAX)
The only thing Dobbins is missing so far for fantasy is that one huge game, and it'll come soon enough with Denver facing the Jets, Giants and Cowboys the next three weeks. He's scored at least 13.1 PPR points in every game so far, with no fewer than 12 touches or 68 total yards in any contest. Dobbins looks quicker than he did last year and is earning consistent workloads as a result, making him a borderline RB1 play when the Broncos are big-time favorites (-7.5 this week).
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (vs. CHI) — 55% started
Start Over — Chase Brown (at GB), Cam Skattebo (vs. PHI), TreVeyon Henderson (at NO)
Croskey-Merritt's role last week was similar to Brian Robinson's (when healthy) in 2024, which isn't enough for RB1 fantasy value but might work out to solid-RB2 status. A home matchup with the Bears is the right time to accept some workload risk, even if Chicago's defense should be somewhat healthier (and slightly less awful?) after a Week 5 bye. Of course, there's room to improve and still be bad, as the Bears have allowed a league-high 6.1 YPC to running backs.
- Other Good Matchups: Josh Jacobs (vs. CIN), Ashton Jeanty (vs. TEN), Kyren Williams (at BAL), Javonte Williams (at CAR), Rico Dowdle (vs. DAL), J.K. Dobbins & RJ Harvey (at NYJ), TreVeyon Henderson (at NO), Tony Pollard (at LV)
Wide Receivers 👍
Jakobi Meyers (vs. TEN) — 63% started
Start Over — DeVonta Smith (at NYG), Xavier Worthy (vs. DET), Chris Olave (vs. NE)
As ugly as things have been for Meyers and the Raiders recently, they're still a tier or two of stink ahead of the Titans, who have allowed opposing WRs to put up 161 receiving yards per game (sixth most) and 8.9 yards per target (fifth most). Meyers is still playing nearly every snap for the Raiders, with upside for the type of volume we saw back in Week 1 (8-97-0 on 10 targets) and Week 2 (6-68-0 on 12 targets). He's a weekly favorite to lead the Raiders in targets until Brock Bowers is back on the field (and actually healthy). Bowers didn't practice Wednesday and appears in serious danger of missing another game.
Keenan Allen (at MIA) — 48% started
Start Over — Tee Higgins (at GB), DK Metcalf (vs. CLE), Zay Flowers (vs. LAR)
Don't be fooled by Miami allowing the eighth-fewest PPR points to wide receivers. That's merely a product of volume, with Miami's opponents averaging 27.4 pass attempts (30th) and 13.6 targets for WRs (31st). The Dolphins also fall near the bottom in efficiency, ranking 29th in EPA (0.50) and 24th in YPT (8.5) on passes to wide receivers.
I think they'll actually fare a bit better efficiency-wise this week, thanks to the Chargers' injury issues along the offensive line. Volume, however, figures to be plentiful, with Los Angeles already ranking second in Pass Rate Over Expected (+6.6%) and now starting a third-string RB. Struggles with the running game and pass protection could lead to a lot of short throws to Allen, who has been targeted on 17 of 45 routes (37.8 percent) against blitzes this year (the fifth-highest rate among WRs, behind Puka Nacua, Tetairoa McMillan, Nico Collins and Garrett Wilson). Allen also leads the Chargers in total targets (44, 8.8 per game) and receptions (29), and he has 90 more air yards than Ladd McConkey (369 to 279, with an 8.4 aDOT while McConkey's is 8.2).
- Other Good Matchups: Davante Adams (at BAL), Deebo Samuel (vs. CHI), A.J. Brown (at NYG), Tetairoa McMillan (vs. DAL), Tre Tucker (vs. TEN), Calvin Ridley & Elic Ayomanor (at LV), Romeo Doubs & Matthew Golden (vs. CIN), Jauan Jennings & Kendrick Bourne (at TB)
Tight Ends 👍
- Hunter Henry (at NO) — 52% started
Start Over — David Njoku (at PIT), Dalton Kincaid (at ATL), Mark Andrews (vs. LAR)
Stefon Diggs has stolen the show for New England's passing game, but Henry should do just fine as a clear Option B, with 10 more targets (28) than third-place Kayshon Boutte (18). No tight end has more air yards (285) or end-zone targets (four), with Henry well on his way to finishing Top 10 at the position in both stats for a second straight year. He's underrated in general, and this week he'll be playing in a dome against a vulnerable defense.
- Other Good Matchups: Jake Ferguson (at CAR), Tucker Kraft (vs. CIN), Jake Tonges (at TB), Ja'Tavion Sanders (vs. DAL)
Sit/Downgrade 👎
Quarterbacks 👎
Jared Goff (at KC) — 45% started
Start Instead — Justin Fields (vs. DEN), Drake Maye (at NO), Bo Nix (at NYJ)
Goff's home/road splits haven't been as pronounced the past couple years, but he still throws more TD passes at Ford Field, averaging 2.54 per game since the start of last season (compared to 1.91 on the road). His Week 6 matchup is unlikely to help, heading to hostile Arrowhead Stadium to face a perennially sound Chiefs defense that currently ranks fifth in EPA per dropback. Kansas City has already allowed 176 rushing yards and three rushing TDs to quarterbacks, but only six defenses have surrendered less passing yardage (199.8 per game), and only three have allowed fewer passing TDs (five).
- Other Tough Matchups: Justin Fields (at DEN), Jared Goff (at KC), Kyler Murray (at IND), Jaxson Dart (vs. PHI), Dillon Gabriel (at PIT)
Running Backs 👎
Derrick Henry (vs. LAR) — 92% started
Start Instead — Rachaad White (vs. SF), Rico Dowdle (at CAR), David Montgomery (at KC)
Whenever a top QB gets hurt, the talking heads tell us that his team will rely on its running back more. Then reality happens, and the team with a backup QB struggles to maintain possession or avoid large deficits, making it difficult for the RB to pile up carries. We've seen this recently with Chase Brown, and now Henry, whose 15-33-1 rushing line last week included two carries for 12 yards when the Ravens were down by 34 points with less than 7:30 remaining.
Unfortunately, potential for garbage-time work is about the only positive for Henry right now, apart from his own talent. The Ravens may get a couple of guys back this week, but they aren't likely to have Lamar Jackson (hamstring), Marlon Humphrey (calf), Roquan Smith (hamstring) or Patrick Ricard (calf) until some point after the Week 7 bye. Given the chaos around Henry and his upcoming matchup with a strong front seven, there are likely some fantasy teams that can consider benching him (if only for this one week). In PPR leagues, I easily prefer someone like Rachaad White or Rico Dowdle (assuming Bucky Irving and Chuba Hubbard are out again).
Jaylen Warren (vs. CLE) — 30% started
Start Instead — Travis Etienne (vs. SEA), TreVeyon Henderson (at NO), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (vs. CHI)
He's better than Kenneth Gainwell, but that doesn't mean Warren will immediately return to the workloads that allowed him to put up at least 14.9 PPR points in Weeks 1-3. Gainwell fared even better in his absence, against a tough Minnesota defense no less, and he seems to have the trust of both Aaron Rodgers and Arthur Smith.
Warren returned to full practice participation Friday and looked healthy going through drills, but he may use a sleeve over his right leg after missing the Week 4 win in London. Given all the variables, it won't be surprising if Gainwell's Week 6 role is much larger than what we saw back in Weeks 2-3 when both he and Warren were healthy (and Warren got 70-80 percent of the work).
A matchup with Cleveland's defense is the secondary issue here, with the Browns allowing the 11th fewest PPR points to running backs despite constantly chasing deficits. That's because their front seven has been the clear strength of an otherwise miserable team, leading the league in both YPC (3.1) and EPA (-.30 per carry) on carries by running backs. The touchdown odds for Pittsburgh's RBs are still decent, playing as a 5.5-point favorite, but there are major concerns about rushing efficiency and workload shares.
- Other Tough Matchups: Travis Etienne (vs. SEA), Michael Carter (at IND), Cam Skattebo & Tyrone Tracy (vs. PHI), D'Andre Swift (at WAS), Chase Brown (at GB), Kareem Hunt & Isiah Pacheco (vs. DET)
Wide Receivers 👎
Tee Higgins (at GB) — 56% started
Start Instead — Calvin Ridley (at LV), Khalil Shakir (at ATL), DJ Moore (at WAS)
He's gotten TD deodorant twice this year, but there's otherwise nothing to like about Higgins' 2025. It's not just the yardage efficiency that's cratered with Joe Burrow out of the lineup. Higgins has a measly 16.5 percent target rate (27 on 164 routes), down from last year's career high of 25.5 percent. It's possible Joe Flacco can boost Higgins toward his career average of 22.2 percent, but I don't really want to bet on that happening immediately (or leading to good results) when Flacco just signed with the team a few days ago — and now has to face a top-notch defense that's coming out of a bye and playing at home.
Jerry Jeudy (at PIT) — 28% started
Start Instead — Kendrick Bourne (at TB), Romeo Dubs (vs. CIN), Keon Coleman (at ATL), Cooper Kupp (at JAX)
It isn't even clear at this point that Jeudy is more of a priority for the Browns than Isaiah Bond. Between Weeks 4 and 5, Jeudy had one more target (14-13), 30 more air yards (197-167) and 12 more routes run (68-56) than the rookie. Neither is likely to do much with Dillon Gabriel, who lacks the height and arm strength to be an effective deep passer. Furthermore, Pittsburgh's defense is in much better health after a Week 5 bye, with CB Jalen Ramsey (hamstring) the only lingering injury concern.
- Other Tough Matchups: Garrett Wilson (vs. DEN), Ja'Marr Chase (at GB), Jameson Williams (at KC), Cooper Kupp (at JAX)
Tight Ends 👎
Mason Taylor (vs. DEN) — 16% started
Start Instead — Juwan Johnson (vs. NE), Dallas Goedert (at NYG), Kyle Pitts (vs. BUF)
Taylor is on three of my five dynasty teams, including one where I basically have no choice but to start him. For those who do have reasonable alternatives, it'd be wise to consider that Taylor was in ideal situations the past two weeks, with his team trailing against two of the worst defenses (MIA, DAL) in the league. The Jets may well play from behind again in London, but this time they'll be facing a much tougher defense — one that's allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points (9.5 per game) and second-lowest catch rate (55.6 percent) to tight ends.
- Other Tough Matchups: Travis Kelce (vs. DET), Mark Andrews (vs. LAR), Theo Johnson (vs. PHI)
Streaming Picks
For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)
QB Trevor Lawrence (vs. SEA)
QB Sam Darnold (at JAX)
RB Michael Carter (at IND)
RB Hassan Haskins (at MIA)
RB Kareem Hunt (vs. DET)
WR Romeo Doubs (vs. CIN)
WR Tre Tucker (vs. TEN)
WR Wan'Dale Robinson (vs. PHI)
WR Josh Downs (vs. ARZ)
WR Hollywood Brown (vs. DET)
TE Mason Taylor (vs. DEN)
TE Juwan Johnson (vs. NE)
TE Evan Engram (at NYJ)
K Chris Boswell (vs. CLE)
K Brandon McManus (vs. CIN) - quad
K Joshua Karty (at BAL)
D/ST Rams (at BAL)
D/ST Patriots (at NO)
D/ST Raiders (vs. TEN)
D/ST Colts (vs. ARZ)
For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 30 Percent Rostered)
QB Geno Smith (vs. TEN)
QB Tua Tagovailoa (vs. LAC)
RB Kimani Vidal (at MIA)
RB Ollie Gordon (vs. LAC)
RB Jerome Ford (at PIT)
WR Troy Franklin (at NYJ)
WR Elic Ayomanor (at LV)
WR Kendrick Bourne (at TB)
WR Jalen Coker (vs. DAL) - IR-R / quad
WR Malik Washington (vs. LAC)
TE Jonnu Smith (vs. CLE)
TE Harold Fannin (at PIT)
TE Theo Johnson (vs. PHI)
K Daniel Carlson (vs. TEN)
D/ST Cowboys (at CAR)
D/ST Commanders (vs. CHI)
For Deep Leagues (Under 10 Percent Rostered)
QB Mac Jones (at TB)
QB Spencer Rattler (vs. NE)
RB Blake Corum (at BAL)
RB Justice Hill (vs. LAR)
RB Jeremy McNichols (vs. CHI)
WR Isaiah Bond (at PIT)
WR Kayshon Boutte (at NO)
WR Xavier Legette (vs. DAL)
WR Demarcus Robinson (at TB)
TE AJ Barner (at JAX)
TE Jake Tonges (at TB)
TE Cole Kmet (at WAS)
K Michael Badgley (vs. ARZ)
D/ST Buccaneers (vs. SF)
D/ST Titans (at LV)
