This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.
Super wild card weekend kicks off with a pair of games Saturday. We'll start with the Browns vs. Texas, which is set for 4:30 p.m. EST. The Browns are 2.5-point road favorites with a game total of 44.5. That leaves the Browns with an implied total of 23.5 total and the Texans 21. The night game begins at 8 p.m., with a more conventional line as the home Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites over the traveling Dolphins. With a game total set at 44, the Chiefs have an implied total of 24.25, while the Dolphins are set at 19.75.
Before getting into the game breakdowns, it's worth noting the structure of the weekend's games on FanDuel. There are contests for Saturday only, Sunday only and a Monday showdown. There are contests that include all six games, but they feature relatively small total payouts. We'll have individual articles for each slate as a result. For those who want to play the entire weekend in a single contest, drop any thoughts or questions in the comments and I'll be sure to respond.
Finally, given the limited number of teams, more than ever, this slate will come down to key roster construction choices. That will be a heavy focus of the article.
Quarterback
We all predicted that Joe Flacco ($7,800) would be the highlight of a playoff DFS slate at the start of the season, right? While Flacco does stand out, it has more to do with the circumstances of the others at the position rather than anything all that outstanding about his own performance. Patrick Mahomes ($8,000) and Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000) have the most name value, but the weather is a significant concern in this game. Current projections have the temperature at zero degrees at the time of kickoff with consistent wind of 10-15 mph. For those who can't stomach Flacco, Mahomes is the better option of the duo in the late game. The Dolphins' defense is going to be shorthanded at every level, potentially without three starters in the secondary and definitely without their top three pass rushers.
Focusing on the early game, Flacco gets the nod over C.J. Stroud ($7,600) based on matchup. The Texans are relatively neutral, while the Browns allowed the fourth-fewest FD points to opposing QBs during the regular season.
Overall, Flacco is in his own tier. Mahomes and Stroud occupy the second tier, while Tagovailoa sits alone in the bottom tier.
Running Back
All four of these teams boast a strong run defense, so matchup isn't as much of a factor at this position as it was for quarterback. Also in contrast to the first position, I'm interested in Miami's backfield. Miami's best hope for staying in the game in its current form is slowing the game down while trying to keep its beat-up defense off the field. They have two backs equipped to accomplish that in Raheem Mostert ($8,200) and De'Von Achane ($7,400). They're both priced up, and watch Mostert's status in particular as he's questionable with knee and ankle injuries. He's likely to be active and play, but there could be some hint in reports prior to kickoff at how work will be split between the two. All things equal, I want Mostert. Only Jalen Hurts had more rushes inside the five this season, so if the Dolphins get near the goal line, we have a strong idea who will have the chance to punch the ball in.
There aren't many values at the position, but Devin Singletary's ($6,400) price is a little peculiar. He's left Dameon Pierce without a role in the Houston backfield, and if there was a weakness to the Browns' defense, it's rush defense.
The punt play could be Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,400). Isiah Pacheco ($8,000) will almost certainly be the lead back, but CEH was rested in Week 18 along with other key starters. That could mean nothing, but it could point to at least some role in the postseason.
From an overall roster perspective, there's a case to be made to be made for Jerome Ford ($7,000). He hasn't done anything particularly inspiring this season with the exception of a two-score Week 17, but it's more about what he opens up for the rest of a potential lineup. Wide receiver is particularly weak after the top-priced options, so for those that want to pay up at three spots at wide receiver, swapping Ford in for Mostert is a viable option. We'll get into a more detailed explanation at wide receiver.
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver has a clear top tier, and then drops steeply. Tyreek Hill ($9,400), Nico Collins ($8,300), Rashee Rice ($7,800) and Amari Cooper ($7,400) make up the elite group. Based on the conversation at quarterback, Collins and Cooper make sense from a projected game environment standpoint. Cooper in particular is likely to be popular, as he just torched the Texans' secondary 46 FD points in Week 17. He was also removed from the injury report Thursday, so health concerns should be much smaller among the field.
That brings us to the top pass catchers in the Miami and Kansas City offense. Hype continues to build about the weather and this being the coldest playoff game ever. That's likely to scare off a lot of the field, perhaps rightfully so. Setting aside matchup and stats, betting on the effect of weather on these respective offenses being overstated is almost certainly a good way to get leverage on the field. As has already been covered, I'd prefer to use the Miami offense for its ground game, and Kansas City for its passing attack. Rice could be the perfect intersection of value and raw points and may check in at a depressed roster rate.
The value options aren't great. Elijah Moore ($6,000) has consistent volume, as he's seen at least six targets in six of his last eight games. That hasn't resulted in many big fantasy performances. If Noah Brown ($6,200) is unable to suit up due to a back injury, Robert Woods ($5,300) could be in a relatively similar role to Moore in his offense at a decent discount. Woods is questionable with a hip injury but looks more likely to play compared to Brown.
We can try to pick the value wide receiver in the Kansas City offense, but we should all know that's a dart throw at this point in the season. Justin Watson ($5,200) has had a couple spike weeks, but he'll have to produce on limited targets. Kadarius Toney ($4,700) has had a miserable year and is more a name than potential production, which leads us to Mecole Hardman ($4,900). He played in Week 18 for the first time since mid-November and got 11 targets. That was with the Chiefs' top players sitting in a meaningless game, but for a team desperate for production at the position, it's hard to imagine they'd ignore his 6-77 line, regardless of context.
Cedrick Wilson ($5,000) would be an option if Jaylen Waddle ($6,800) (ankle) is out, but he's a touchdown-or-bust option.
Now is the time to circle back to the conversation of choosing where to pay up. Rostering Collins, Rice and Cooper is essentially impossible with Mostert also on the roster. That sets up a choice of whether to pay up at RB or WR, which essentially comes down to a 2 v. 2 choice. Some examples include:
- Mostert-Moore-Woods
- Ford-Cooper-Woods
Tight End
The choice at tight end is straightforward. Durham Smythe ($4,800) is a non-factor in the Miami offense, which leaves Travis Kelce ($7,200), David Njoku ($7,000) and Dalton Schultz ($5,900). Playing either Kelce or Njoku would require finding another place to pay down. That's a challenge, but it's probably another good way to get different from the field. For those who want to pay up, I'd prefer Njoku, who has really taken off with Flacco under center (double-digit FD points in four straight games). One potential option to fit that salary in would be a Browns stack while not rostering Cooper (Flacco-Ford-Moore-Njoku). It's hard to imagine Flacco producing at his ceiling without Cooper also having a good game, but there is a path to that – particularly with Njoku.
Schultz is the fairly obvious fit in the projected chalkiest builds. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but he's likely to be the highest-rostered player at the position.
Defense/Special Teams
The Browns ($4,400) are the most talented defense on the slate, but as we've covered, there will be more points projected in that game. Despite that, they finished tied for third in the league in takeaways and sixth in sacks.
The other primary option would be the Chiefs ($4,000). They don't force many turnovers but were second in the league in sacks and should have a significant home-field advantage.
