FanDuel NFL: Sunday-Monday Wild-Card Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

The shift of the Pittsburgh-Buffalo game from Sunday to Monday has changed the setup of wild-card weekend on FanDuel. Instead of two main-slate equivalents on Saturday and Sunday, the biggest contests now include both the Sunday and Monday matchups, encompassing all four of the remaining games of the long weekend.

The Games

• The Pittsburgh-Buffalo matchup was moved back a day to avoid the worst of the weather, but that isn't to say there will be pristine conditions. There won't be much snow actively falling, but wind will remain at 15 mph consistently, with gusts up to 30 mph. The passing games will still likely be affected.

Quarterback

Josh Allen ($9,000) and Jalen Hurts ($9,000) are the two highest-priced quarterbacks due to their rushing upside. However, each has a factor potentially holding them back. The aforementioned weather could hold Buffalo's passing attack back, which would put a significant amount of pressure on Allen to rack up points on the ground.

Hurts is battling a finger injury but practiced in full Friday. He'll be without A.J. Brown (knee) but has an excellent floor due to his rushing ability, and more specifically, his role near the goal line. The Bucs are a pass-funnel defense, so Hurts would be the choice for those who want to pay up. Given some of the value available at the position, the clearer strategy is to pay down.

There isn't much left to differentiate the rest of the field at the position. None of the remaining four viable quarterbacks offer much in terms of rushing ability and each lead offenses that are projected to score plenty of points. As a result, I'd be willing to pay down for either Jordan Love ($7,600) or Matthew Stafford ($7,400). Since Week 10, Love has reached 20 FD points in five of nine games, but at least 17.4 FD points in eight of nine games. The Cowboys have been a pretty tough matchup, which could be the reason to steer toward Stafford. Stafford has a shorter run of strong play, but he has at least 20 FD points in four of his last six games and at least 18.5 in five of his last. Detroit has had one of the worst pass defenses in the league, though could be aided slightly by the return of C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

Running Back   

Given the volume he's almost certain to get, we at least have to mention Kyren Williams ($9,000). However, Detroit is a pass funnel defense so Williams is on the wrong end of the matchup. Similarly, the Rams are a stingy unit against rushing attacks, making it reasonable to surpass the pair of Detroit backs.  Of the most expensive players at the position, that leaves only Tony Pollard ($7,800) and Rachaad White ($7,700). Pollard is simply over-priced. White has a solid role but has lost a lot of efficiency across the last several games (156 rushing yards on 50 carries in his last three games). The Eagles have stunk defensively lately, but White is also arguably overpriced.

In contrast, the second tier is rich with options, so this is another position for which I would have no hesitation paying down. There's a strong case for James Cook ($7,100), Aaron Jones ($7,000), and Najee Harris ($6,500). Cook has the best combination of value and matchup, but he has a modest six total touchdowns this season. He has only 18 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line, compared to the 21 of Allen. That isn't to say he can't find the end zone, just that he'll likely need to do it on a big play. Jones and Harris should each be in for heavy workloads. AJ Dillon (neck) is doubtful to suit up, leaving Jones as the only trusted member of the backfield for Green Bay. Meanwhile, Harris has combined to see 53 carries across the last two weeks. If the Steelers get their offense going, it's likely to come through the run game.

That tier is as low as we can go for comfortable volume. Jaylen Warren ($5,600) will be involved for Pittsburgh, but he struggled to hold onto the ball in rainy conditions in Week 18, so the Steelers may have lost some confidence in him in bad weather games. It's also possible Leonard Fournette ($4,800) finds the end zone, but that's a pretty thin bet even at his depressed price.

Wide Receiver

With strong pay-down options at the first two positions, wide receiver is the place to hunt for elite options. There are several from which to choose. CeeDee Lamb ($10,000) and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($9,000) are both strong plays and don't need much explanation.

Given the weakness of Detroit's secondary, both Puka Nacua ($8,000) and Cooper Kupp ($7,500) are viable. On a weekly basis, we don't know exactly how the production will be split between the duo. I'd reserve rostering them for a stacking scenario with Stafford.

Sticking in a similar tier, DeVonta Smith ($7,200) has to enter the conversation, particularly for those who roster Hurts. With A.J. Brown out, Smith should see an increased role and is the cutoff for comfortable projectable volume in terms of price.

Brandin Cooks ($6,500) and Demarcus Robinson ($6,300) are both boom-bust options. Cooks needs to find the end zone, but that's a possibility given that Dallas' implied total suggests they could score four touchdowns. Robinson has scored double-digit FD points in five consecutive games. He's averaged only 6.8 targets per game in that span, so it doesn't seem likely he'll keep that up, but he is mispriced based on his recent level of production.

If the weather isn't as bad as anticipated in Buffalo, Khalil Shakir ($5,800) is a potential value with Gabe Davis (knee) out. With Kalif Raymond (knee) out in Detroit,  Jameson Williams ($5,200) and Josh Reynolds ($5,500) are also good sources of savings without the associated weather concerns. They'd get another bump up if Sam LaPorta (knee) can't go. The news of Brown being sidelined could mean an increased role for Julio Jones ($5,100), but he's an option only for those in desperate need of a punt option.

Tight End

 Even if LaPorta ($7,000) does play, it's almost certain he won't be 100 percent healthy. I wouldn't pay all the way up to him as the highest-priced tight end.

A lot of people are likely to land on a player in the next tier at the position. Jake Ferguson ($6,200) has at least six targets in each of his last six games, giving him a consistent role if not much production (he's reached double-digit FD points once in that span). Dallas Goedert ($6,100) is similar to Smith in that he should see a bump in targets with Brown sidelined. Meanwhile, the Bucs allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends during the regular season. Pending the weather, Dalton Kincaid ($6,000) will be another viable option in this group. He's emerged as a key contributor with Stefon Diggs seemingly not fully healthy, and now the Bills are also without Davis.

That leads us to a potential punt play in Brock Wright ($4,700). Assuming LaPorta isn't fully healthy, Wright would set up to be the team's only regular who is healthy at the position (Anthony Firkser was elevated from the practice squad Saturday). That sets up nicely, as the Rams allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.

Defense/Special Teams

Based on implied team totals, the Bills ($5,000) are the obvious choice. I won't dissuade anyone who wants to play them, but the Steelers gameplan could be a reason for caution. They won't take to the air frequently until they have to, and that may not ever come if the game remains within a score with the assistance of weather.  Even in the likely event that the Bills limit the scoring of Pittsburgh, it may not come with many turnovers or sacks.

The Cowboys ($4,600) and Lions ($4,000) are the next best options based on their ability to force turnovers. Dallas is better at getting to the quarterback, so they'd be the preferred option.

This isn't as tough of a slate to build as the Saturday games, so there's a clearer path to build a lineup with a strong defense.  

Stacks

Dak Prescott's ($8,600) price is a deterrent, but the Cowboys are otherwise the top stack of the day. Prescott-Lamb-Ferguson is the obvious choice, but working Cooks in could also pay off.

We mentioned the Rams as well, with Stafford-Nacua-Kupp the straightforward build. It's possible to work in Williams and Robinson as well. '

The public is down on the Eagles, so this is an interesting time to buy. That's particularly true with targets condensing, leaving Hurts-Smith-Goedert as a straightforward option.