FanDuel NFL: Week 18 Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.

It feels like the regular season just kicked off, yet we've reached Week 18. As is usually the case, plenty of teams will sit their stars and most important players this week. As a result, for those who want to play the slate, staying on top of the news is vital. A few situations I'm still waiting for clarity on include the backfields of San Francisco, Baltimore and Cleveland. Because of that, there won't be further mention of them in the original article, but if there's more clarity as to who the lead backs will be for each of those teams, analysis will be added in the comments.

In addition to keeping up with the news, the obvious strategy is to target teams that have motivation to play hard this week. Here's a list of the teams that have something specific to play for:

•  Dallas – NFC East title with win
• Tampa Bay – NFC South title with win
• Miami, Buffalo – AFC East title with win
• Green Bay, Jacksonville - Playoff berth with win
•  Minnesota, Atlanta, New Orleans, Seattle  – Win to keep playoff hopes alive

The Games

A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.

• Using game totals, the best offensive environments are Dallas-Washington, Seattle-Arizona, Chicago-Green Bay and Minnesota-Detroit.
•  The teams with the highest implied totals include the Cowboys, Seahawks, Lions and Packers.

Value Options

This section will highlight players who project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.

Zamir White vs. DEN ($6,500)

The Raiders don't have anything to play for after they lost in Week 17, but White will continue to operate as the team's lead back with Josh Jacobs (quadriceps) out. In three weeks since Jacobs has been sidelined, White has 20, 22 and 25 touches. That's translated to 16, 14.5 and 13.1 FD points. Those aren't massive scores, but they come at a palatable price. The catch is that there is some tremendous value available (some of which is listed below, some of which will hopefully become clearer as the weekend progresses), but White provides some security as his volume is known thanks to the recent sample. 

Calvin Ridley at TEN ($6,900)

Ridley has had an inconsistent season with more downs than ups, particularly recently. That might make him a curious selection on the surface, but volume has been on his side with Christian Kirk (groin) sidelined. Kirk was designated to return from injured reserve this week, but even if he's back on the field, it's unlikely he's 100 percent healthy. However, he could draw coverage away from Ridley while not necessarily taking targets. Speaking of targets, Ridley has seen a minimum of eight in his last five games. The matchup is also a positive, as Tennessee has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wider receivers and has been tagged for more than 35 fantasy points combined to wide receiver corps in half of their last eight games. We can expect Ridley to account for most of that. There's risk, but Ridley is in a good spot to rebound.

Other Value Options

QB Geno Smith at ARI ($7,300)
QB Tyrod Taylor vs. PHI ($7,000)
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire at LAC ($6,500)
RB Jamaal Williams vs. ATL ($6,000)
RB Jaleel McLaughlin at LV ($5,500)
RB Ronnie Rivers at SF ($4,400)
WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. JAC ($6,800)
WR Jordan Addison at DET ($6,700)
WR Garrett Wilson at NE ($6,600)
TE Juwan Johnson vs. ATL ($5,400)
TE Tucker Kraft vs. CHI ($5,300)

Stacks to Consider

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

This has a strong chance of being the highest-scoring game of the day. Both quarterbacks are playing well and targets are likely to be condensed around only a few pass-catching options. The Chicago side is fairly simple, as Justin Fields ($8,400) has combined with DJ Moore ($8,000) for some huge performances this season. Fields himself has topped 25 FD points in the last two weeks and has gotten aggressive with his legs (combined 142 rushing yards and two touchdowns). Fortunately, that hasn't capped Moore's ceiling as he posted 26.4 FD points in Week 17 against a typically stout Atlanta secondary. The same can't be said of Green Bay, as it's allowed the 11th most points to wide receivers in the last eight weeks and the fourth most in the last four weeks. Cole Kmet ($6,300) is also a solid peripheral option, as he has either topped 50 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in his last three weeks.

On the Green Bay side, Jordan Love ($7,800) has had one of the biggest climbs in both play and reputation in the second half of the season. The tricky part will be determining which wide receivers are available for the Packers, as each of Christian Watson ($6,500) (hamstring), Jayden Reed ($7,100) (chest) and Dontayvion Wicks ($5,500) (chest) are questionable. Reed is the top choice if healthy, but Watson performed excellently when he was healthy for a brief period in Weeks 12 and 13. If two of the three are out, Bo Melton ($5,200) is an interesting cheap option to consider. Assuming Luke Musgrave ($5,300) (groin) remains out, Tucker Kraft ($5,300) has been a reliable option from a volume perspective as he has at least six targets in four of his last five games.  

Minnesota Vikings

Detroit isn't likely to play its starters for much, if any of this game, as the Lions have little to play for. That's not true of Minnesota, and now they still have a shot — albeit a longshot to make the playoffs. Justin Jefferson ($9,000) hasn't quite had the ceiling performances we expect of him since his return to the field, but he's had exactly 10 targets in each of his last three games. We can expect Nick Mullens ($7,100) to continue to pepper him with targets. Jordan Addison ($6,700) hasn't had the same volume, but is at a reasonable price. Johnny Mundt ($4,500) is the value option. He's racked up 10 targets in a game and a half since T.J. Hockenson (knee) has gone down.

Dallas Cowboys

This is an obvious spot to attack as the Cowboys have an explosive and concentrated offense. They also face a Commanders' secondary that has gotten lit up for the entire season. A Cowboys stack is pretty straightforward, starting with Dak Prescott ($8,700) and CeeDee Lamb ($10,000). Thanks to some of the other value on this slate, that's doable even at their inflated cost. Overstacking the team is an option, which would bring Brandin Cooks ($6,100) and Jake Ferguson ($6,000) into consideration. Those players are also overpriced but have less of a ceiling.  

Turning this into a game stack is possible, but it's hard to have faith in the Washington offense. That's reflected in its 17.5 implied team total.

High-Priced Heroes

Rachaad White at CAR ($7,700)

White isn't the typical high-priced guy we've highlighted in this section, but we've already covered the elite receivers worth considering in this spot. He had been on an impeccable run until both he and the Tampa Bay offense crashed back to earth last week against the Saints. Now, the Bucs face a must-win game against the Panthers, an extreme run-funnel defense that has allowed a whopping 25 touchdowns, including 21 rushing scores, to running backs.

Also Consider: CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

Kenneth Walker vs. ARI ($7,000)
James Conner at SEA ($7,300)

Speaking of run-funnel defenses both the Seahawks and Cardinals fit that description. Walker and Conner can take advantage. Conner doesn't have the sexiest name value, but his production dictates we pay attention to him — particularly at his price point and recent production. He's been productive both as a pass catcher and rusher, which has led to at least 16.4 FD points in the last four games with at least 19.7 in three. In the last two weeks, the Seahawks defense has combined to allow 70 FD points in the last two weeks.

The story is similar on the opposite side of this game. Walker ripped through the Steelers' defense last week before going down with an injury and has shown no signs of ceding his role to Zach Charbonnet. The Cardinals have allowed massive performances to both Kyren Williams and Christian McCaffrey in recent weeks. Walker may not be able to match those, but this is an exploitable matchup.