This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.
In some ways, Week 4 offers us more of the same of what we've seen early this season. One game total stands out (Miami at Buffalo) above the rest, with many being clumped behind after that. Trying to pick out the right game to target from the second tier will be important.
A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.
|Over/Under||Road Team||Road Implied Total||Home Team||Home Implied Total|
|45.5||Los Angeles Rams||22||Indianapolis||23.5|
|39.5||Tampa Bay||18||New Orleans||21.5|
|49.5||Las Vegas||22||Los Angeles Chargers||27.5|
- Miami-Buffalo easily projects to be the best offensive environment, as it's the only game with both teams earning an implied total of more than 25 points.
- Individual offenses that project well include Dallas, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Denver and the Chargers.
This section will highlight players that project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis but can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.
Javonte Williams at Chicago ($5,800)
Williams is a tricky case because volume hasn't been on his side early this season. He's topped out at 13 carries and four receptions, both of which surprisingly came Week 1. His workload against Miami last week can be excused due to the game script, but simply put, there is concern about volume. If Denver is going to unleash Williams, now would be the time as the team is 0-3 and desperately needs a win if it hopes to salvage the 2023 season. The matchup also sets up well, as Chicago has allowed four rushing touchdowns and the 11th-most rushing yards to running backs this season.
Tutu Atwell at Indianapolis ($6,300)
Puka Nacua has gotten a lot of attention in the Rams' offense this season, but Atwell quietly has had a strong start to the season as well. Size concerns were supposed to hold him back from a traditional role in the offense, yet he leads the team in routes run and has served as the deep threat. Given that, he's a good bet to produce at a relatively depressed price, in a strong matchup (Colts have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards) and in a dome.
Other Value Options
QB Dak Prescott vs. NE ($7,000)
RB James Conner at SF ($6,300)
RB Alvin Kamara vs. TB ($6,500)
RB Joshua Kelley vs. LV ($6,000)
WR Jordan Addison at CAR ($6,400)
WR Nico Collins vs. PIT ($6,400)
WR Tank Dell vs. PIT ($6,200)
TE Jake Ferguson vs. NE ($5,100)
Stacks to Consider
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Just like Week 3, we have one obvious game to target in stacks. This is the only matchup with a total higher than 50, and it's particularly appealing because both teams are projected to score well. Josh Allen ($9,000) hasn't really flashed a ceiling performance this season and has played relatively conservatively since Week 1 against the Jets. This is a spot for him to open it up, and the good news is that we have a pretty good idea of where the ball is going. Stefon Diggs ($8,700) has a massive 30.2 percent target share. Gabe Davis ($6,500) is next closest among the receiving corps at 14.2 percent, though he makes up for some of that lack of volume with big plays (31.1 percent air yards share, 15.3 aDOT, three of nine catches for than 20 yards). Diggs is obviously the preferable option, but Davis is a good fit for FD scoring. The two tight ends have canceled each other out in terms of fantasy production, which leaves a potential third option as an unconventional stack with James Cook ($6,800).
Things are pretty self-explanatory in Miami as well. Jaylen Waddle ($7,400) is back, but Tyreek Hill ($9,600) is the obvious top target for Tua Tagovailoa ($8,000). Meanwhile, Durham Smythe ($4,600) hasn't produced much but is a decent punt at tight end. Given the optimal construction of a Bills stack, he's a decent cheap bring back option. It also makes sense to pair Hill with Davis or Diggs with Waddle and a quarterback to balance profiles and cost.
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
These aren't particularly high-powered offenses, but the setup is pretty strong for fantasy purposes. As was noted above, this game takes place in a dome with two quarterbacks who are capable of putting up big scores themselves while also distributing the ball to a narrow range of targets. Starting with Los Angeles, Puka Nacua ($7,500) and Atwell have accounted for 56.2 percent of Matthew Stafford's ($6,600) targeted throws. The other attractive thing about this offense is the cost. While Allen/Diggs/Davis costs $24,200, Stafford/Nacua/Atwell checks in at $20,400. That leaves a lot of extra budget to pay up elsewhere.
The target distribution in Indianapolis is even clearer. Michael Pittman ($7,200) not only has an elite role within the Indianapolis offense, but he has the 10th-highest target share in the league, has run the second-most routes in the league and has the sixth-most targets. He's a clear value even outside of the stack. Josh Downs ($5,400) has gotten opportunity, but the fantasy production has yet to come. He's a decent option as a salary saver, but not a must in the game stack.
We've also seen the upside of Anthony Richardson ($7,600). He's been aggressive on the ground, which has been both a blessing and a curse, with lots of fantasy production but also injuries. He's tallied three running scores in a game and a half and is a standalone option. A stack is also possible with Richardson, Pittman and one of the Rams' receivers. That combination could come as cheaply as $21,100.
Christian McCaffrey vs. ARI ($9,700)
McCaffrey is the highest-priced player of the slate, so he certainly qualifies for this title. We heard a lot of talk about him seeing a decreased role in Week 3 to protect his health, but that resulted in 23 total touches, 119 yards and a touchdown. Now, he faces an Arizona defense that has been more competitive than expected, though it has still given up four total touchdowns to running backs in three games — two rushing and two receiving. Now, they'll face the most well-rounded back in the league who has topped 20 FD points in all three games this season.
Ja'Marr Chase at TEN ($8,200)
The Bengals could have arguably been mentioned in the stack section, but I'm still not convinced they're all the way back to the form we've seen the last two seasons. That said, if there were a breakout spot, this would be it. The Bengals are facing a Titans' secondary that has allowed 7.7 yards per attempt to quarterbacks — the fourth-highest mark in the league. They've allowed each of Chris Olave, Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper to top 100 yards this season, and Chase should be next.
The Smash Spot
(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)
Zay Flowers at CLE ($6,100)
The Browns are a good defense and have been the toughest for wide receivers to score fantasy points against through three weeks this season. However, targets will condense in the Baltimore offense this week, as both Odell Beckham (ankle) and Rashod Bateman (hamstring) are out. That leaves Flowers and Mark Andrews as the top pass catchers, and the volume that's likely to come his way will far outpace his price tag — mitigating some of the matchup risk.
Salary Saving Options
QB C.J. Stroud vs. PIT ($6,700)
QB Matthew Stafford at IND ($6,600)
RB Ezekiel Elliott at DAL ($5,600)
RB Cam Akers at CAR ($5,500)
WR Brandin Cooks vs. NE ($5,400)
WR Nelson Agholor at CLE ($5,400)
WR Marvin Mims Jr. at CHI ($5,400)