It's never too early to start thinking about next season, especially if you work for a fantasy sports website and already had to do the first run of 2025 projections.
Below you'll find a comparison between my personal PPR rankings (far left column) and early ADP results from Drafters.com (second column), followed by the difference between the two (third column). Keep in mind that Drafters is a best ball site, whereas my personal rankings are intended for the lineup-setting, redraft leagues that most people play on Yahoo, ESPN, etc. The biggest difference between those two formats, in terms of draft strategy, is that every team in a best-ball league is taking 2-4 QBs and TEs. That means QB20 and TE20 have real value, which isn't the case in a typical redraft league where a lot of teams only draft one quarterback and one tight end.
After the rankings, I'll discuss and explain some of the noteworthy cases where my personal rankings diverge considerably from the early ADP results on Drafters. There are a couple of general themes that stand out. First, I have most of the rokies ranked much earlier than where they're going in best-ball drafts. Second, I have the top QBs and TEs going slightly earlier than their Drafters' ADPs.
At the bottom of the page I'll discuss some of the more interesting cases in which my rankings are far different from early ADP.
| My Rank | ADP | DIFF | Player | Pos | Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | Ja'Marr Chase | WR |
It's never too early to start thinking about next season, especially if you work for a fantasy sports website and already had to do the first run of 2025 projections.
Below you'll find a comparison between my personal PPR rankings (far left column) and early ADP results from Drafters.com (second column), followed by the difference between the two (third column). Keep in mind that Drafters is a best ball site, whereas my personal rankings are intended for the lineup-setting, redraft leagues that most people play on Yahoo, ESPN, etc. The biggest difference between those two formats, in terms of draft strategy, is that every team in a best-ball league is taking 2-4 QBs and TEs. That means QB20 and TE20 have real value, which isn't the case in a typical redraft league where a lot of teams only draft one quarterback and one tight end.
After the rankings, I'll discuss and explain some of the noteworthy cases where my personal rankings diverge considerably from the early ADP results on Drafters. There are a couple of general themes that stand out. First, I have most of the rokies ranked much earlier than where they're going in best-ball drafts. Second, I have the top QBs and TEs going slightly earlier than their Drafters' ADPs.
At the bottom of the page I'll discuss some of the more interesting cases in which my rankings are far different from early ADP.
WR Brian Thomas
My Rank: 8
ADP: 12
In my mind, Thomas' massive production at the end of 2024 makes him a solid first-round pick more so than a 1/2 turn guy. He averaged 23.9 PPR points over the final six weeks while catching passes from Mac Jones, and he'll now head into 2025 with Trevor Lawrence as his quarterback and Liam Coen as his head coach. I'm not sure if Coen will be a good head coach, but I know he was one of the best playcallers / scheme designers in the league last year, lifting Tampa Bay's offense about two levels higher than Dave Canales did in 2023.
RB Bucky Irving
My Rank: 19
ADP: 27
This is a similar case to Thomas', albeit with a lesser talent. Irving averaged 18.3 PPR points after a Week 11 bye, despite missing the final three quarters of one game with an injury. It's fair to wonder if a player his size can handle huge workloads in the long run, but at this price he can miss a few games and still be a successful pick. A third-round price is too cheap for a RB who finished his rookie season with 1,122 rushing yards and 392 receiving yards while improving both his usage and production as the year progressed.
WR Tee Higgins
My Rank: 34
ADP: 21
2024 was easily Higgins' best season in terms of per-game production (18.7 PPR points), but he missed five games for a second straight year, struggling with upper-leg injuries again. As much as I normally like to target players that had high scoring averages but missed a bunch of games, Higgins feels incredibly expensive for a player with a career average of 14.3 PPR points and a lengthy history of similar injuries. He has six hamstring/thigh/quad injuries on record since entering the NFL in 2020. I'm guessing he'll stay with the Bengals but will drop back to his normal range of 7-8 targets per game, after averaging 9.1 last year.
- RB Omarion Hampton (Rookie - UNC )
My Rank: 40
ADP: 65
This should perhaps be taken with a grain of salt, as I don't watch much college football or claim to be any kind of expert on prospects. I mostly defer to people with expertise in that area, and nearly all of what I've seen on Hampton is extremely positive, with mock drafts and prospect rankings consistently putting him as the RB2 in a strong class for the position, behind only Ashton Jeanty. Hampton is an early declare who put up two seasons of massive numbers on mediocre teams, and a lot of people are expecting a sub-4.5 40-yard dash at around 220 pounds. He already seems locked in as a second-round pick and could even slip into the first round with a strong 40 time. Generally speaking, the ADPs on top rookies likely will rise over the next couple months, and Hampton could eventually be a late-R2 fantasy pick if he lands with the right team. There's obviously risk, as it's also possible he falls to late in the second round of the real-life draft and then gets taken by a team with an established starting RB, in which case his fantasy ADP likely would drop to Round 8-9.
WR My Rank: 44
ADP: 56
A fifth-round ADP probably seems fair if you consider that Sutton produced as a WR2 last season, a WR3 in 2023 and at a sub-fantasy-starter level in 2021 and 2022. What that misses is how his 2024 numbers improved as Bo Nix improved, with Sutton averaging 17.7 PPR points after Week 7 while reaching double digits in all 11 games. That level of production is commensurate with second-round value, giving Sutton plenty of room to fall back and still be a valuable pick at his fifth-round price. I may eventually move him as high as a Round 3 ranking if the Broncos only add modest competition for targets this offseason.
WR DK Metcalf
My Rank: 65
ADP: 48
While Seattle's firing of OC Ryan Grubbs and subsequent hiring of Klint Kubiak feels more favorable for Metcalf than for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I'm nonetheless sticking to my guns on the idea that 2024 was DK's final opportunity to prove he's capable of something more than WR3 fantasy production. He's reliable for that, at least, but I prefer shopping for more upside around the 4/5 turn, rather than drafting a guy with four straight seasons in the range of 13.0 to 14.4 PPR points.
- RB Cam Skattebo (Rookie - ASU)
My Rank: 82
ADP: 121
It sounds like Skattebo is more likely to be a mid-round pick than a second-round guy, but it won't surprise me if some team falls in love with him and takes him in the range of 50-75 overall. He finished 2024 with 1,711 rushing yards, 605 receiving yards and 24 TDs, making him a threat to handle both goal-line carries and passing-down work in the NFL even if he's nothing special as a pure runner. And, for what it's worth, I thought he looked pretty darn good in the CFB playoffs, showing enough power and agility to get by in the NFL even if he runs something like a 4.6 40-yard dash. My naked-eye guess is that he'll land closer to 4.5.
WR Deebo Samuel
My Rank: 98
ADP: 67
Samuel has long been one of my favorite real-life players, and he conceivably could get more targets if/when he's traded. The problem for me is that he simply didn't look good or play well in 2024, which becomes even more of a concern given his history of nagging injuries and the possibility that his unique skill set won't age well.
- WR Xavier Restrepo (Rookie)
My Rank: 113
ADP: 156
Restrepo's pre-draft profile is that of a second-round pick, while his ADP is more in line with what we normally see for rookie WRs taken in the third round of the NFL Draft. It's possible he ends up being taken in the third round, of course, in which case this ADP might end up sticking. If he goes in the second round to a receiver-needy team with a decent QB, he'd likely land around ADP 90.
QB My Rank: 117
ADP: 152
McCarthy's youth and athleticism give him a much higher ceiling than Sam Darnold, who just threw for 35 TDs under Kevin O'Connell. If McCarthy is merely an average starting quarterback in real life, he'll be a great fantasy pick at ADP 152. If he's the standout the Vikings hope he is, McCarthy's combination of mobility and A+ team context could make him a solid QB1 for fantasy immediately, commensurate with fifth/sixth/seventh-round value.
