This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Green Bay Packers at 
Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 12
Just call me Jon Snow because I'm King of the (NFC) North! Not only do I have the honor and privilege of staying with OUR Chicago Bears for this week's Monday Night Football segment (yes, I know, I'm as surprised as you are that the Bears are on MNF), I also get the break down the Packers/Lions Turkey Day tilt. So "put on your diaper" and get ready for a cornucopia of excitement from the Motor City! Dan Campbell really is the gift that keeps on giving this holiday season.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Betting Odds for Week 12
Lions -7.5/Packers +8
Lions ML -360, Packers ML -360
Total over 46.5/under 47.5
The line has stayed right at 7.5 since the opener with some books leaking up to 8, presumably from the news that Aaron Jones is out for the Packers. Detroit is taking 72% of the bets and 81% of the money so this appears to be a case where the squares and sharps are aligned. The total has moved quite a bit, up from the 44.5 opener and shows little signs of slowing down with some books as high as 47.5.
Packers at Lions Betting Picks This Week
There are very few positives on Green Bay's side in this game. Aaron Jones is, by far, the most important player on their offense. Even at 80%, he provides Jordan Love a much-needed threat out of the backfield. Without him, defenses can key on stopping the pass knowing the loafing AJ Dillon won't hurt them. The Packers have scored more than 20 points THREE time all year and in Week 4, Detroit thoroughly dominated them in Lambeau. My first inclination here was to jump on the over, and at 44.5, I might have, but at 47.5, the value isn't there. This seems square and too easy, but my top play for this game is on the Lions at -7.5. Yes, I took them at the same number last week and was burned by OUR Bears, but Jordan Love is no Justin Fields, and without Jones, I just don't know how the Packers score enough to keep it close. Plus, I'll reiterate Campbell's NFC North numbers: 7-1 SU and ATS the last two years. I don't see them failing to cover back to back divisional games.
Packers at Lions Best Bet: Lions -7.5 (@ FanDuel)
Packers at Lions Prediction
As the first game of the day, many of us will be eating right around kickoff. At least that's how my family rolls.....let's see how much action we can cram into a 15-minute window. Turkeys are ready, everyone fill their plates and get back to the table because the game is about to kick off. The Lions will score before the first plate is clear and will tack on a FG to make it 10-0 at the end of the quarter. I'll get up and start clearing plates/grazing in the kitchen until it is halftime with the score 17-7 Detroit. 150 million people will be napping, including the couple dozen in my house, so nobody will see or care that the Packers make it a game at 20-14 heading into the fourth. As is protocol, the Lions let the Packers hang around, but ultimately put the game away with a 27-17 victory. Pumpkin pie and Cool Whip all around! Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
