In last week's article, I highlighted the players to downgrade late in the season based on their tough Strength of Schedule. This week we'll identify the players who might fly under the radar as each Guillotine League is narrowed down to the final few teams. You may not think of these options as every week, must-start players, but they could help you get past the finish line at a reasonable price.
Strength of schedule analysis pictured below is based on leagues that run through Week 17. The best remaining matchups are ranked from best to worst on a 0-100 scale. These rankings are adjusted for quality of opponent.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay
I was able to draft Mayfield as my starting quarterback in the ninth round of the RotoWire Users Guillotine League, and despite significant injuries to his top two receivers, I haven't had a good reason to bench him yet (other than last week's bye). He has been the fourth best fantasy QB this season, and he should get Mike Evans back soon. In Weeks 16 and 17, Mayfield will face two teams that are in a race to get to the bottom of the standings (Dallas and Carolina), while Tampa Bay could still be fighting to win the NFC South. It's a great recipe for fantasy success.
Kyler Murray - Arizona
When it comes to favorable late-season matchups, the Cardinals rank right behind the Bucs with games against the Panthers and Rams in Weeks 16 and 17. Like Tampa Bay, Arizona is fighting to win their division, and Murray should be able to exploit two shaky secondaries.
Murray is eighth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game this season, and he has been even better in recent weeks. Only four quarterbacks have scored over 20 fantasy points in three of their past four games: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray.
Running Backs
David Montgomery - Detroit
Montgomery is one of the safest plays in all of fantasy football, as he has reached double-digit fantasy points in all but one game and scored 10 TDs in 10 games. He often gets downgraded because he sees under 50% of the team's snaps, but he is so effective that it doesn't matter. Now he'll face the third most favorable schedule for running backs the rest of the season, as Detroit looks to lock up homefield advantage for the playoffs.
Chuba Hubbard - Carolina
Sitting right behind Montgomery in fantasy points per game is Chuba Hubbard. In the RotoWire Users Guillotine League, Hubbard was a seventh-round pick, drafted behind Ezekiel Elliott, Gus Edwards, Trey Benson and teammate Jonathon Brooks, among others, making him one of the steals of the draft. Brooks (knee) is expected to make his season debut this week, but we expect that Hubbard will continue to see the lion's share of touches moving forward. As their passing game continues to struggle, the Panthers should continue to lean on Hubbard, particularly with favorable late season matchups against Dallas, Arizona and Tampa Bay.
Wide Receivers
Malik Nabers - New York Giants
Through the first month of the season Nabers was a top five fantasy wide receiver getting massive volume. Then he missed two games with a concussion and hasn't had the same level of production since. With Daniel Jones getting benched this week in favor of Tommy DeVito, there is even more uncertainty at the quarterback position, but Nabers should still get the volume that he needs to be a strong starter in PPR leagues. He should also benefit from having the second-most favorable schedule for wide receivers the rest of the season, including the most favorable schedule from Weeks 15 through 17.
George Pickens - Pittsburgh
For the season, he is 31st in the league among wide receivers in fantasy points per game, so Pickens may get overlooked as Guillotine Leagues teams get chopped and total roster spots available shrink. But don't make that mistake. Since Russell Wilson took over as starting quarterback for the Steelers, Pickens has at least four catches and 74 yards in all four games. He is the undisputed no. 1 option for a playoff team with some pass-friendly opponents down the stretch.
Tight Ends
David Njoku - Cleveland
QB Jameis Winston saw his first real action of the season in Week 7. Including that game, Njoku has 37 targets in four games. As long as Njoku is healthy, we should see more of the same going forward, as Winston is consistently throwing over 40 passes per game with the Browns regularly playing catchup. Cleveland will be the underdog in every game the rest of the season. They may not win another game, but the PPR fantasy production will be there for Winston, Njoku, and the Cleveland wide receivers.
You Can Still Join a Guillotine League!
You can start leagues any week of the season for as long as you want.
Here's how it works:
1. Set up and draft your team just like traditional fantasy football
2. Each week the lowest scoring team gets eliminated
3. All of the players from the eliminated team become free agents
4. A weekly FAAB bidding war starts among the remaining teams
5. Survive the chop and be crowned champion
Public and Private Leagues are open at GuillotineLeagues.com. And with paid public leagues now available, you can play to win cash prizes.
