Exploiting the Matchups: Week 11 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Justin Herbert (vs. CIN) — 42% started

Start Over — Jared Goff (vs. JAX), Sam Darnold (at TEN), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. LV)

Herbert's top three fantasy scores of the season came in the past three games, including this past Sunday against the Titans when the Chargers reverted back to their pre-bye, run-heavy ways. They'll likely open things back up for a primetime matchup with the shootout-prone Bengals, a team that's allowed the fifth most fantasy points to QBs while facing a stars-and-scrubs schedule at the position (Lamar Jackson x2, Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts.... but also Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson and Gardner Minshew). The Chargers are favored by 1.5 points in a game with a 48 over/under, tied for the second highest of Week 11.

• Other Good Matchups: C.J. Stroud (at DAL), Russell Wilson (vs. BAL), Jared Goff (vs. JAX), Tua Tagovailoa (vs. LV), Bo Nix (vs. ATL)

Running Backs 👍

• David Montgomery (vs. JAX) — 89% started

Start Over — J.K. Dobbins (vs. CIN), D'Andre Swift (vs. GB), Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. LAR)

Montgomery's four worst fantasy scores of the season came in the past four games, after he started the year with 15 or more PPR points in five straight contests. The recent stretch includes two of his six games without a TD since joining the Lions, but he'll likely find his way back to the end zone this Sunday as a 14-point favorite against one of the worst defenses in the league. Jacksonville is allowing the third most PPR points to running backs (27.3 per game), with only the Panthers and Saints yielding more total TDs (12) to the position.

• Nick Chubb (at NO) — 35% started

Start Over — Travis Etienne (at DET), Austin Ekeler (at PHI), Javonte Williams (vs. ATL)

The Browns have no shortage of issues, but one thing they can no longer blame is O-line injuries, which were a persistent problem throughout last season and the first half of this year. And while Chubb isn't the best version of himself right now, he's taken 42 of the team's 56 RB carries (75 percent) in his three games and may be in better form after a Week 10 bye... just in time to face a New Orleans defense that's allowing a league-high 5.2 YPC to running backs. The Saints gave up at least 16.8 PPR points and one TD to their opponent's starting RB each of the past six weeks, including season-best fantasy scores for Bucky Irving, Javonte Williams and Bijan Robinson (plus the monster outing from Sean Tucker in a backup role Week 6).

• Other Good Matchups: Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. JAX), Kyren Williams (at NE), De'Von Achane (vs. LV), Joe Mixon (at DAL)

Wide Receivers 👍

• Khalil Shakir (vs. KC) — 52% started

Start Over — DJ Moore (vs. GB), DeAndre Hopkins (at BUF), Tank Dell at DAL)

While the Chiefs have played fantastic defense on the whole, no team has allowed more fantasy points per game to players aligned in the slot, where Shakir runs 67.6 percent of his routes and has accrued 72.2 percent of his yardage. He may also have less competition for short targets than usual come Sunday, as TE Dalton Kincaid (knee) wasn't able to finish last week's game and now isn't practicing this week. Everything is lining up perfectly for Shakir to extend his four-game streak with at least seven targets, six catches and 50 yards, although the efficiency might be disappointing by his lofty standards against a Steve Spagnuolo defense that knows Shakir is one of the key Buffalo players to monitor.

• Cedric Tillman (at NO) — 34% started

Start Over — Amari Cooper (vs. KC), Jameson Williams (vs. JAX), Jaylen Waddle (vs. LV)

The Saints have allowed the 10th most PPR points (34.6) and eighth most yards per target (8.3) to wide receivers, with struggles predating the injuries to cornerbacks Paulson Adebo (IR - leg) and Marshon Lattimore (hamstring, then traded). Their perimeter starters the past two games were career backup Shemar Jean-Charles (who hadn't played this year until Week 8) and third-year slot corner Alontae Taylor (who has a bottom-10 PFF grade for the second straight year), with the Saints hoping rookie second-round pick Kool-Aid McKinstry can return from a hamstring injury soon and improve the situation. I'm not 100 percent sold on Tillman yet, but the circumstances for Week 11 suggest he'll continue his scoring binge if he's the real deal (or even close to it).

• Other Good Matchups: Nico Collins & Tank Dell (at DAL), Courtland Sutton (vs. ATL), Jerry Jeudy & Elijah Moore (at NO), Ladd McConkey (vs. CIN), DeMario Douglas (vs. NE)

Tight Ends 👍

• Jonnu Smith (vs. LV) — 23% started

Start Over — Dalton Schultz (at DAL), Pat Freiermuth (vs. BAL), Cole Kmet (vs. GB)

Smith's playing time slipped to 43 percent snap share in the win at Los Angeles on Monday, but he still topped 60 percent route share (for a fourth time in the past four games) and was one of five Dolphins to draw 3-6 targets. He's accounted for 16 of the 93 targets (17.2 percent) since QB Tua Tagovailoa returned from injured reserve, with the team continuing to feature a shockingly flat target distribution rather than having Tyreek Hill as the runaway No. 1 option and Jaylen Waddle as the clear No. 2. That's probably not good for the Dolphins, but it works well if you need a TE streamer or bye-week replacement, especially now that Smith is playing at home against a Vegas defense that's allowed TEs to produce 15.2 PPR points per game (fifth most), 8.5 YPT (seventh most) and a league-high 82.8 percent catch rate.

• Other Good Matchups: T.J. Hockenson (at TEN), Tyler Conklin (vs. IND)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Jordan Love (at CHI) — 47% started

Start Instead — Brock Purdy (vs. SEA), C.J. Stroud (at DAL), Justin Herbert (vs. CIN)

The Bears are allowing a league-low 11.3 fantasy points per game to QBs, combining above-average pass defense with subpar run defense and a terrible offense. They rank seventh in passing yards allowed (190.4 per game) and ninth in net yards per attempt (5.8), compared to 24th in rushing yards allowed (133.0) and 28th in YPC (4.8). With the Packers favored by 5.5 points over such a team, there's a good chance this will be a Josh Jacobs week rather than a blow-up spot for Love and the passing game. The over/under for Packers-Bears is second lowest of Week 11, at 40.5, with Vikings-Titans (39.5) and Texans-Cowboys (42.0) being the only other matchups south of 43.5.

• Other Tough Matchups: Lamar Jackson (at PIT), Jayden Daniels (at PHI), Jordan Love (at CHI), Geno Smith (at SF), Kirk Cousins (at DEN), Caleb Williams (vs. GB), Mac Jones (at DET)

Running Backs 👎

• Najee Harris (vs. BAL) — 56% started

Start Instead — Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. LAR), Tony Pollard (vs. MIN), D'Andre Swift (vs. GB)

Harris likely will play through his ankle injury after missing only a few minutes of Sunday's 28-27 win over Washington, but it may be enough of an issue to inspire larger-than-usual workloads for Jaylen Warren and/or Cordarrelle Patterson. It's already a tough matchup for Harris without the injury concern, with Baltimore allowing the second fewest rushing yards (56.8 per game) and second least YPC (3.2) to running backs. The Ravens have been far more generous in terms of RB pass-catching production — 47.0 ypg (third most), 7.0 YPT (fifth most) — which probably helps Warren more so than Harris.

• Rico Dowdle (vs. HOU) — 35% started

Start Instead — Nick Chubb (at NO), Brian Robinson (at PHI), Travis Etienne (at DET, if Bigsby is out)

Dowdle has double-digit touches and at least 55 total yards in seven consecutive appearances, with 50+ percent snap share in three of his past four games. He's seemingly settled in as a functional RB2 or FLEX, but this is a good week to hold him out of lineups even if he's largely eliminated the threat from other Dallas running backs. Dowdle managed just 8.6 PPR points against the Eagles in QB Cooper Rush's first start — tied for his second lowest fantasy total this season — and the Cowboys now face another tough defense, without the benefit of decent QB play to buoy production. It doesn't help that the Texans have been especially tough on running backs, ranking fifth in PPR points allowed (18.3 per game) and seventh in YPC (4.0).

• Other Tough Matchups: James Cook (vs. KC), Kenneth Walker (at SF), D'Andre Swift (vs. GB) Chase Brown (at LAC), Tony Pollard (vs. MIN), Brian Robinson (at PHI), Alexander Mattison (at MIA), Travis Etienne (at DET)

Wide Receivers 👎

• Josh Downs (at NYJ) — 53% started

Start Instead —  Darnell Mooney (at DEN), Ladd McConkey (vs. CIN), Jauan Jennings (vs. SEA)

Downs had at least nine targets and 12 PPR points in each of the five games for which Joe Flacco took most of the QB snaps, compared to an average of 5.7 targets and 8.7 PPR points in three full games with Anthony Richardson (despite scoring a 69-yard TD against a broken coverage). It's not clear Downs is even a WR3 for favorable matchups with Richardson under center, much less for tough draws like the one he gets this Sunday, playing on the road against a Jets defense that's allowing a league-low 24.7 PPR points to wide receivers and still has a stalwart slot corner in Michael Carter. Downs has proven he has a bright future in the NFL, but there's only so much he can do if his QB can't complete simple passes and/or the Colts deploy an extremely run-heavy offense.

• Rashod Bateman (at PIT) — 11% started

Start Instead — Romeo Doubs (at CHI), Jerry Jeudy (at NO), Ricky Pearsall (vs. SEA)

As a Ravens fan and repeat Bateman drafter, the late breakout has been fun to watch. Even so, he's someone we only want to start in excellent matchups, as he's averaging a mere 4.7 targets per game and getting it done with efficiency (10.7 YPT) rather than volume while riding the Lamar Jackson wave. This could be a rare down week for Jackson, at least relatively speaking, facing a T.J. Watt-led defense that ranks third in fantasy points allowed to QBs (12.3 per game) and 11th in PPR points allowed to WRs (29.8). Jackson is a top-three QB play in even the toughest of matchups, but it's a different story for his weapons in Baltimore's spread-the-wealth passing game.

• Other Tough Matchups: Puka Nacua (at NE), Terry McLaurin & Noah Brown (at PHI), Zay Flowers (at PIT), Alec Pierce & Michael Pittman (at NYJ), Amari Cooper (vs. KC), Drake London (at DEN),

Tight Ends 👎

• Kyle Pitts (at DEN) — 69% started

Start Instead — T.J. Hockenson (at TEN), David Njoku (at NO), Tucker Kraft (at CHI)

Travis Kelce and Brock Bowers topped 20 PPR points against the Broncos, but every other tight end that's faced them this season has fallen shy of double digits, with only Cade Otton even sniffing 50 yards. Pitts topped the 50-yard mark five of the past six weeks, coming away with a couple big gains in nearly every contest while splitting snaps with Charlie Woerner. We saw the downside associated with reduced playing time just two weeks ago when Pitts drew just one target in a win over the Cowboys. His underlying usage is less encouraging than the recent production suggests — with much of that production coming in two shootouts against a Bucs team that can't play defense — and he now gets a road date with a tough defense that hasn't allowed many big plays to tight ends.

• Other Tough Matchups: Evan Engram (at DET), Jake Ferguson (vs. HOU)

Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)

QB Russell Wilson (vs. BAL)

QB Bo Nix (vs. ATL)

RB Alexander Mattison (at MIA)

RB Jaylen Warren (vs. BAL)

RB Audric Estime (vs. ATL)

WR Romeo Doubs (at CHI)

WR Jerry Jeudy (at NO)

WR Ricky Pearsall (vs. SEA)

TE Taysom Hill vs. CLE)

TE Jonnu Smith (vs. LV)

TE Hunter Henry (vs. LAR)

K Jake Bates (vs. JAX)

K Jason Sanders (vs. LV)

D/ST Rams (at NE)

For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)

QB Drake Maye (vs. LAR)

RB Gus Edwards (vs. CIN)

RB Justice Hill (at PIT)

WR Rashod Bateman (at PIT)

WR Demarcus Robinson (at NE)

WR DeMario Douglas (vs. LAR)

TE Mike Gesicki (at LV)

TE Zach Ertz (at PHI)

K Blake Grupe (vs. CLE)

D/ST Saints (vs. CLE)

For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)

QB Jameis Winston (at NO)

RB Jaylen Wright (vs. LV)

RB Roschon Johnson (vs. GB)

WR Kayshon Boutte (vs. LAR)

WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (vs. MIN)

WR Elijah Moore (at NO)

TE Will Dissly (vs. CIN)

TE Dawson Knox (vs. KC)

TE AJ Barner (at SF)

K John Parker Romo (at TEN)

D/ST Falcons (at DEN)