Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Colts vs. Saints

Monday night's matchup between the Colts and Saints isn't expected to be close, with the Saints a solid 9.5-point home favorite in a game with a 47.5-point total on FanDuel Sportsbook. New Orleans still has a shot at the no. 1 overall seed in the NFC, having already wrapped up the division title, while the Colts' once-promising season is all but over, losers of five of their last six while allowing 69 points in the past two games, which came against Tennessee and Tampa Bay. Granted, the Titans and Buccaneers have been two of the best offensive teams in the league lately, but the Saints are obviously no slouches, scoring at least 26 points in four straight games, including last week's 48-46 loss to the 49ers. Given the situations both teams find themselves in, there are likely to be plenty of home-team stacks in fantasy lineups Monday night.

QUARTERBACKS

Saints quarterback Drew Brees ($12,000 DK, $16,000 FD) has been somewhat inconsistent this season, not even counting the five-plus games he missed due to injury, but he comes in after throwing for 349 yards and five touchdowns while also adding a one-yard rushing score against the 49ers, easily one of the best defenses in the NFL. And in the clearest sign of his inconsistency, he threw for 185 yards and one touchdown in a loss to the Falcons the week prior. Nevertheless, he's thrown for at least three touchdowns in four of his last six games, eclipsing 300 yards thrice in that span. Meanwhile, the Colts' previously strong defense has been anything but lately, allowing at least 295 passing yards in three of their last four games while allowing multiple touchdown passes in each of their last four. There's no question that Brees will be highly owned Monday, with the consideration regarding whether he makes a good captain/MVP pick only that some teammates might be better. Not only is his passing yard prop on FanDuel Sportsbook at 303.5 (-112 on both sides), he's also -192 to throw for more than 1.5 touchdowns and -130 to not throw an interceptions (+102 to get picked off).

Meanwhile, the Colts' Jacoby Brissett ($9,000 DK, $14,000 FD) has more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than more than 300 (three), and that doesn't count his 59 yards in Week 9 when he left early with an injury. His volume has been elevated lately because they've been getting blown out, throwing 40 and 36 passes in the past two games, respectively. However, that's only led to three passing touchdowns versus two interceptions, and while the 319 and 251 yards were solid, his price Monday night seems pretty high in a game the Colts are supposed to get blown out in. Then again, his volume could stay high because they're trailing, and the Saints have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on DraftKings and 10th-most on FanDuel, a position that's been "helped" by the fact they've allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five consecutive games, which came against the Falcons (twice), Buccaneers, Panthers and 49ers. Additionally, Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo each threw for over 300 yards in that span, though Brissett is definitely not on their level. A Brissett captain can theoretically work if the Saints' fantasy points get spread out enough while they get ahead enough for the Colts to have to rely on Brissett's arm and he cleans up while trying to keep pace (plus garbage time), but it's an unlikely scenario for a player whose passing yards prop is 232.5 while he's -154 to throw for fewer than 1.5 touchdowns (+120 over) and -152 to throw an interceptions (+120 not to).

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

One of the reasons to not necessarily pay up for Brees is because of Michael Thomas ($12,600 DK, $15,500 FD), the most expensive player on DraftKings and second-most on FanDuel (Brees is no. 1 there). Thomas leads the NFL in targets (147), receptions (121) and receiving yards (1,424), which is pretty impressive since the Saints haven't played their Week 15 game yet. His 109.5 receiving yards per game are 14.3 more than the next-highest player (Chris Godwin), and he leads the league with eight 100-yard games, six coming in his last seven games. He's been dominant on a league-wide level, but oh boy is he dominating the Saints' route runners, as Ted Ginn ($4,200 DK, $7,500) has the second-most targets (52), receptions (28) and receiving yards (398) among wide receivers on the team. If there's a decent positive about Ginn it's that he leads the team with a 15.4 aDOT (among players who have actually caught a pass), so it's clear that he's the deep threat, and certainly ahead of Tre'Quan Smith ($3,000 DK, $7,500 FD), who has a touchdown in two of his last three games, a span that also saw him top out at four targets, two receptions and 29 receiving yards, all last week against San Francisco. In reality, Thomas is the only wide receiver with consistent targets, followed by Ginn and Smith, both of whom can have big impacts on a single-game slate, so there should be some ownership. However, Thomas is likely to be a popular captain/MVP pick since he's the best player in the game (great analysis, I know).

The reason why Thomas is really the only consistent wide receiver is because Brees likes throwing to tight ends and running backs (more on them later), with Jared Cook ($6,800 DK, $12,000 FD) the most recent popular option, catching both of his targets for 64 yards and two touchdowns just last week, a game that was cut short because of a concussion, but he had 14 targets in the two prior games combined, catching nine for 184 yards and a touchdown. Cook's lower price has to put him in consideration, though he's not nearly as low as the non-Thomas receivers. The volume just isn't there to justify a Cook captain because his salary doesn't even save you that much on DraftKings because of the salary multiplier, though that likely makes him a lower-captained/MVPed option.

There are obviously some lower-priced options who aren't likely to do much, including Josh Hill ($3,300 DK, $8,500 FD), whose routes will be reduced because Cook is healthy, and Deonte Harris ($300 DK, $5,000 FD), who had 25 percent of his season total of targets just last week (he had one). However, the real guy who annoyingly continues to be a wildcard is quarterback Taysom Hill ($3,000 DK, $7,000 FD), who actually has just as many targets (17) and more receptions (14 to 11) as Smith, while only Thomas and Cook have more than his four receiving touchdowns. There is really no reason for Hill to still be considered a quarterback, as he's thrown just four passes all season (fewer than Steelers running back Jaylen Samuels and one more than Rams punter Johnny Hekker), but he's been given seven carries in the past two games, turning them into 46 rushing yards and a touchdown, while also getting at least one target in each of the past seven games. None of it is big production, but head coach Sean Payton seems to continue pushing the idea that Hill can be some kind of offensive contributor, so we can't ignore him completely, but he definitely fits the mold of a tight end or fullback in terms of production (i.e. little upside if he doesn't score a touchdown).

While the Saints focus their targets heavily on a few players, the Colts spread them around considerably, with five players having at least 50 targets and 31 receptions but none with 40 catches. Top wideout T.Y. Hilton ($8,200 DK, $11,000 FD) has missed most of the season due to injury, and he is officially a game-time decision Monday even though there is talk that he would take on his normal workload if he's declared healthy enough to play. He's played only once since Week 8, hasn't had more than 87 yards in a game this season (that was back in Week 1), and he only had more than six targets three times in his seven starts. That being said, he's the Colts' best receiver by a mile, and while his longer plays tend to come on short-to-moderate passes that he can take to the house, he also lead the team in red-zone targets before the injury, including seven in the first three weeks. Using Hilton as a captain/MVP would be pretty bold if he's active, but if Brissett keys on his favorite receiver then it could pay off against a defense that's allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season on Draftkings and fourth-most on FanDuel.

Zach Pascal ($8,000 DK, $11,500) has been the biggest beneficiary of Hilton's absence, especially of late by getting 19 targets in the past two games, combining for 12 catches for 183 yards and a touchdown. He's likely to be the most popular Colts wide receiver if Hilton doesn't play, though that doesn't really say much since you're otherwise considering Marcus Johnson ($5,200 DK, $10,000 FD), who caught three of seven targets for 105 yards and a touchdown last week, and that was preceded by four catches on six targets for 55 yards in Week 13. His volume was elevated because the Colts were forced to pass so much, but that scenario is definitely in the cards Monday. And with a number of other receivers on IR, we're left with Ashton Dulin ($600 DK, $5,000 FD) as the Colts' long-shot cheap option, though he has only one target this season (it was in Week 13), and he played only 14 offensive snaps last week. 

In reality, it's tight end Jack Doyle ($6,600 DK, $10,500 FD) who will get more consideration, as he had 21 targets in the past three games, including a solid six-catch, 73-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 13. It's not a big track record, but the Saints allowed tight end touchdowns in three of their past five games, including each of the past two, so Doyle consideration is certainly something plenty of people will be doing, especially since backups Mo Alie-Cox ($400 DK, $5,000 FD) and Ross Travis ($200 DK, not in FD player pool) barely play, and Alie-Cox is much more of a blocker.

RUNNING BACKS

I almost included Alvin Kamara ($9,800 DK, $13,000 FD) in the above section because even though he's a running back, he's second on the team in targets (82) and receptions (68) while being third in receiving yards (462). He obviously still gets rushing attempts, though his volume isn't as high because of the availability of Latavius Murray ($5,600 DK, $8,500 FD). Kamara still gets more carries, but with 13, 11, 11 and 13 in the past four games, respectively, he needs the work in the passing game to be an elite option to justify five-figure prices on both sites. Murray has reached double-digit carries just once in the past five games, and while he makes for a pretty interesting differential captain/MVP pick, he's really reliant on touchdowns to make that work. Not only does Kamara get more carries and targets, he's also gotten nine red-zone carries in the past four games, a span that saw Murray get two. The Colts' numbers against running backs are solid, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position on FanDuel (tied with the Saints) and seventh-fewest on DraftKings, though they allowed 149 rushing yards and a touchdown two weeks ago and then 11 receptions on 12 targets last week, which certainly fits into Kamara's game. There is room to pay up for two Saints, so there are likely to be plenty of Kamara-Thomas, Kamara-Brees and Brees-Thomas combinations, with one or two punts needed for all three (less if you don't captain any of them on DraftKings).

The Colts' backfield belongs to Marlon Mack ($7,800 DK, $12,500 FD), who is once again expected to lead the backfield in carries but cede most of the passing-down work to Nyheim Hines ($3,800 DK, $8,000 FD). Mack returned from a two-game absence last week, rushing 13 times for 38 yards and a touchdown, but he played nine fewer snaps than Hines, who rushed four times for one yard and caught four of five targets for 24 receiving yards, because they were behind. Mack can obviously get game-scripted out if the Colts go behind early against the Saints, who as a reminder are 9.5-point favorites, so the play is certainly not without risk. Third-stringer Jordan Wilkins ($800 DK, $6,000 FD) figures to be a non-factor if Mack and Hines don't suffer injuries, and the same applies to Jonathan Williams ($1,000 DK, $7,000 FD) if he's even active. Considering Mack as a captain/MVP should occur if you think the Colts go out of their way to pound him into the ground early in an effort to keep the Saints' offense off the field, but he'll be doing so against a team that's allowed the fifth-lowest yards per carry average this season (3.78) while only two teams heading into Week 15 had allowed fewer rushing yards. If anything, Hines makes a tad more sense because the Saints have allowed the eighth-most targets and third-most catches to running backs, though impressively only the eighth-fewest receiving yards to the position.

KICKERS

Wil Lutz ($4,000 DK, $9,500 FD) of the Saints needs to be a serious thought Monday night, as he comes in with double-digit fantasy points in six of his last seven games, including each of his last five. He's gotten multiple field-goal attempts in all but two games this season, and he still gets PATs when the Saints' offense is successful enough to get in the end zone. His $4,000 salary puts him more in play for cash games because you're not relying on touchdowns from guys like Ginn or Smith or Hill, and he could certainly be a part of a GPP-winning lineup if he reaches 10+ again. 

On the other hand, the Colts' kicking situation has been messy this season, if only because of the struggles for Adam Vinatieri, who is out with a knee injury, leaving Chase McLaughlin ($3,600 DK, $9,000 FD) to fill his place. McLaughlin is kicking for his third team this season and makes sense in cash games if only because the Colts' offense isn't expected to score many touchdowns but might be able to move the ball enough to get him into field-goal range. Captaining either kicker seems crazy, especially with the Saints' high implied total, but crazier lineups have won tournaments.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Outside of allowing 48 points on 516 total yards last week to the 49ers, the Saints' defense ($4,400) had been solid, racking up 13 sacks and four turnovers in the previous two games, a span that was preceded by a touchdown in Week 11 (thank you, Jameis Winston). Given the Colts' low implied total, rostering the Saints' defense is a possibility, though Brissett has thrown only six interceptions this season while taking 20 sacks, the latter of which is fewer than 27 other quarterbacks. Turnovers are needed for a defense to have an explosive-enough score to win a GPP, and they're the hardest thing to project. If you want to play into that unpredictability, the Colts' defense ($2,600) scored just last weekend against Tampa Bay (Jameis!), which helped them score 11.0 fantasy points despite giving up 38 points and 542 total yards. Unfortunately for the Colts, Brees is far from Winston in that regard, as he's only thrown four interceptions on 280 passes while taking nine sacks in eight games. But again, we've seen no consistent way to predict turnovers and, more importantly, turnovers that become defensive touchdowns, giving us an upside play in GPPs that isn't likely to be overly popular.