This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
The Week 1 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EDT and features 13 games, as the entire league will be in action sans the Thursday Night Football (Lions-Kansas City), Sunday Night Football (Cowboys-Giants) and Monday Night Football (Bills-Jets) participants. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 1, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $500,000 to the top 5,306 finishers, including $100,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 29,400 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.
Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.
Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $500k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Among the suggested Week 1 plays are a star QB looking to take the next step under a new OC, a pair of 2022 first-round draft picks at WR, and a discount defense facing an unproven QB.
QUARTERBACK
Justin Herbert, LAC vs. MIA ($30): Herbert has averaged just under 4,700 yards and 31.3 TD passes in his first three NFL campaigns. The pieces are in place for the star QB to take another step forward in 2023, as the Chargers brought in former Dallas OC Kellen Moore to run the offense and beefed up Herbert's receiving corps by drafting WR Quentin Johnston in the first round. This game has the highest over/under on the Week 1 Sunday Baller slate at 51.0 points, with the Bolts favored by 3.0 for an expected output of 27.0 points. Most of the Chargers' damage should come through the air against a Miami secondary that will be without prized offseason acquisition Jalen Ramsey (knee).
Honorable Mentions:
Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. HOU ($29); Geno Smith, SEA vs. LAR ($28); Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. TB ($26)
Against the Grainers:
Justin Fields, CHI vs. GB ($33); Joe Burrow, CIN at CLE ($30); Anthony Richardson, IND vs. JAX ($22)
RUNNING BACK
Travis Etienne, JAX at IND ($25): After missing his entire rookie season due to a Lisfranc injury, Etienne logged his first NFL season in 2022 and showed the big-play ability that prompted Jacksonville to select the running back in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He averaged 5.1 YPC en route to 1,125 yards and five touchdowns while adding 316 yards on 35 receptions. The Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round this year to bolster their backfield depth, but Etienne's poised to open the season as the team's clear lead back and should get plenty of work against the rebuilding Colts, who tied for the third-most PPG allowed (25.1) in the NFL last year.
J.K. Dobbins, BAL vs. HOU ($21): The Baltimore and Jacksonville defenses are tied for the priciest at $20 apiece in Week 1, so both of these teams are expected to play from ahead and control the ball in Week 1 against AFC South opponents starting rookie QBs. After missing all of 2021, being limited to eight appearances in 2022, and dealing with another injury in the offseason, Dobbins is finally healthy entering the season and will look to build on his strong finish to the 2022 campaign. He's been effective when available, as evidenced by Dobbins' 7.0 YPC and 99.3 rushing yards per game over his last four regular-season appearances. Dobbins is expected to headline a backfield that also includes Gus Edwards and Justice Hill against a Houston defense that allowed a league-high 170.3 rushing yards per game in 2022.
Honorable Mentions:
Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. MIA ($37); Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. TB ($18); Brian Robinson, WAS vs. ARI ($17)
Against the Grainers:
Bijan Robinson, ATL vs. CAR ($27); Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. PHI ($21); Deon Jackson, IND vs. JAX ($10)
WIDE RECEIVER
Chris Godwin, TB at MIN ($22): Godwin ranked 10th among wide receivers with 142 targets in 2022. Four of the nine WRs with more aren't playing on the Sunday Baller slate, while four of the other five are valued at $25 or more, and the last one is Diontae Johnson, who failed to score a touchdown on 147 targets last season and is facing the vaunted San Francisco defense. Godwin should be just as busy with Baker Mayfield under center as he was in Tom Brady's last season, as the Buccaneers could find themselves playing from behind more often. That's expected to be the case in Week 1; the Buccaneers are six-point underdogs in the game with this slate's fourth-highest over/under (45.5 points). Minnesota allowed the most catches and receiving yards in the NFL to WRs in 2022.
Chris Olave, NO vs. TEN ($21): Olave had 1,042 receiving yards in 15 games as a rookie, and the 11th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft should benefit from the Saints' substantial upgrade at QB. After catching passes from Andy Dalton (14 starts) and Jameis Winston (three starts) last year, Olave will have four-time 4,000-yard passer Derek Carr throwing him the ball in 2023. A healthy Michael Thomas should siphon some targets, but the veteran WR will also occupy the defense's attention, freeing up space for Olave on a New Orleans offense that will be without suspended pass-catching RB Alvin Kamara for three weeks to begin the season. If Olave lives up to expectations, this may be the only time he's valued below 11 other WRs in a main slate, and his Week 1 opponent is a Titans defense that surrendered the most fantasy points to WRs in 2022.
Jahan Dotson, WAS vs. ARI ($12): Dotson was selected just five picks after Olave last year, and he caught seven TDs in 12 games as a rookie, while fellow rookie WRs Olave, Drake London (eighth overall) and Garrett Wilson (10th overall) scored only four apiece. Commanders QB Sam Howell is unproven, but Washington could have the ball a lot against an Arizona team that's starting journeyman Joshua Dobbs at QB, and fellow WR Terry McLaurin may be limited if available at all as he battles turf toe. The affordable Dotson showed good chemistry with Howell in the preseason, scoring a TD in the opener and leading the team with 76 receiving yards in one half of another preseason game. Only the Bears (27.2) allowed more PPG than Arizona (26.4) in 2022.
Honorable Mentions:
Justin Jefferson, MIN vs. TB ($38); Keenan Allen, LAC vs. MIA ($18); Van Jefferson, LAR at SEA ($11)
Against the Grainers:
Davante Adams, LV at DEN ($25); DeAndre Hopkins, TEN at NO ($18); DJ Moore, CHI vs. GB ($17)
TIGHT END
Tyler Higbee, LAR at SEA ($17): With Cooper Kupp (hamstring) ruled out, Higbee's poised to open the season as Matthew Stafford's most trusted target against a Seattle defense that allowed the second-most receiving yards in the NFL to tight ends last year. Higbee finished fourth among tight ends with 108 targets in 2022 as Kupp and Stafford both missed the second half of the campaign due to injuries. With Stafford back, Higbee should experience an uptick in target quality, while Kupp's absence should keep the quantity up early in the season. From 2017-21, Higbee averaged at least 6.6 yards per target every year and finished at 8.2 or higher three times, so last season's mark of 5.7 YPT can be chalked up to LA's ineffective QB play sans Stafford. Rams-Seahawks has the third-highest over/under in the Sunday Baller slate at 46.0 points.
Honorable Mentions:
Mark Andrews, BAL vs. HOU ($25); Dallas Goedert, PHI at NE ($18); David Njoku, CLE vs. CIN ($14)
Against the Grainers:
Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. CAR($16); Pat Freiermuth, PIT vs. SF ($12); Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at NO ($10)
DEFENSE
Atlanta Falcons, ATL vs. CAR ($10): Paying up for a strong on-paper matchup is tempting, but between the uncertainty of Week 1 and the increased buying power at positions with greater variance, it's tough to pass up the potential savings of a cheaper defense. Atlanta's a 3.5-point home favorite in one of only two games in this slate with an over/under below 40 points (39.5) -- the other is Arizona-Washington at 38.0. The Falcons will host a Panthers offense that's looking to integrate rookie QB Bryce Young. Carolina's offensive line struggled to buy Young much time in the preseason, and the Panthers' group of skill position players around him is arguably the worst in the NFL on paper.
Honorable Mentions:
Baltimore Ravens, BAL vs. HOU ($20); Jacksonville Jaguars, JAC at IND ($20); Washington Commanders, WAS vs. ARI ($18)
Against the Grainers:
New England Patriots, NE vs. PHI ($17); Seattle Seahawks, SEA vs. LAR ($15); Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT vs. SF ($11)
