NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 13 Sunday Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 13 Sunday Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 13 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST and features 12 games. The Cardinals and Panthers are on bye, while the Thursday Night Football (Bills-Patriots), Sunday Night Football (Colts-Cowboys) and Monday Night Football (Saints-Buccaneers) participants are also excluded from Sunday's main slate. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 13, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $200,000 to the top 3,003 finishers, including $25,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 11,760 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $200K Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 13 options include an unproven quarterback, a pair of established producers at the running back position and a trio of value plays at wide receiver looking to capitalize on vulnerable secondaries.

QUARTERBACK

Mike White, NYJ at MIN ($27): White was terrific in his season debut last week, throwing for 235 yards in the first half alone and adding his third touchdown pass in the third quarter before the Jets turned almost exclusively to the running game in a 31-10 blowout of the Bears. It's easy to credit that performance to facing a bad Chicago defense, but keep in mind that White also had 405 yards in one of his three starts last season, and that effort came in a win over the eventual AFC champion Bengals. Sure, the floor here is low given that White still isn't a known commodity, but he's shown a substantial ceiling. With the Jets banged up at running back, White should get a chance to strut his stuff against a generous Minnesota secondary that has allowed a league-high 3,226 passing yards, including 382 to Mac Jones last week.

Honorable Mentions

Jalen Hurts, PHI vs. TEN ($38); Justin Herbert, LAC at LV ($33); Trevor Lawrence, JAX at DET ($31)

Against the Grainers

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at SF ($32); Lamar Jackson, BAL at DEN ($30); Aaron Rodgers, GB at CHI ($27)

RUNNING BACK

Nick Chubb, CLE at HOU ($34): Chubb is $6 cheaper than the priciest running backs this week, but it wouldn't be surprising if he ended up leading the position in scoring. While Deshaun Watson's drawing the headlines ahead of his Browns debut, it makes sense for Cleveland to ease the former Texans QB back in with a run-first approach, especially against a Houston defense that's giving up a league-high 168.6 yards per game on the ground. There may even be enough opportunities left over for Kareem Hunt to get in on the fun, too, but Chubb should cruise to his seventh 100-yard rushing performance of the season and is likely to add to his 12 touchdowns as well.

Aaron Jones, GB at CHI ($25): Jones should feast on a Bears defense that's giving up 34.6 points per game during Chicago's current five-game losing streak. Last week, Chicago allowed Zonovan Knight to become the third undrafted rookie since 1990 to surpass 100 scrimmage yards in his NFL debut, and the Bears still found time to allow a 32-yard touchdown run to Ty Johnson as well. Whether it's Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love under center, the Packers will likely give Jones plenty of opportunities to exploit this vulnerable defense, against which Jones compiled 170 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns back in Week 2.

Honorable Mentions

Josh Jacobs, LV vs. LAC ($32); Travis Etienne, JAX at DET ($25); David Montgomery, CHI vs. GB ($20)

Against the Grainers

Dameon Pierce, HOU vs. CLE ($19); Isiah Pacheco, KC at CIN ($18); Miles Sanders, PHI vs. TEN ($16)

WIDE RECEIVER

Christian Kirk, JAX at DET ($21): Wide receivers have feasted on the Lions all season, as Detroit has given up the third-most yard (2,116) and seventh-most touchdowns (11) to the position. Kirk stands head and shoulders above Jacksonville's other receiving options, as he leads the team with 725 receiving yards and has accounted for seven of Trevor Lawrence's 16 passing touchdowns. Kirk has notched at least 70 yards and a touchdown four times, with multiple touchdowns in two of those four games, and another such effort could be forthcoming here.

Garrett Wilson, NYJ at MIN ($18): If you're not fully in on White yet, you can still get some exposure to the quarterback's upside by deploying Wilson at a reasonable price. The rookie 11th overall pick had 95 yards and two touchdowns last week with White under center, and Wilson produced 102 yards and two touchdowns while catching passes from Joe Flacco back in Week 2, so he's been phenomenal in two of the four games with someone other than Zach Wilson at quarterback for the Jets. At this salary, the reward here is much higher than the risk against a Vikings secondary that has allowed a league-high 2,173 yards to wide receivers.

Diontae Johnson, PIT at ATL ($16): Both Johnson and George Pickens ($21) are enticing options against a vulnerable Atlanta secondary, but the former represents the better value. Johnson's one of three Steelers with more than 500 receiving yards and less than 525, along with Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth, but he's the only one of the three who has yet to find the end zone. He's certainly capable of scoring, as evidenced by Johnson's 2,084 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns over the previous two seasons, and he leads the Steelers in targets (94) and catches (56) this season despite his struggles. He may not get a better opportunity to break the scoring drought than during this visit to Atlanta considering the Falcons' secondary has allowed the second-most yards (2,140) and fourth-most touchdowns (13) to wide receivers.

Honorable Mentions

A.J. Brown, PHI vs. TEN ($28); Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs. JAX ($27); Christian Watson, GB at CHI ($21)

Against the Grainers

Justin Jefferson, MIN vs. NYJ ($39); Davante Adams, LV vs. LAC ($31); Jaylen Waddle, MIA at SF ($28)

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce, KC at CIN ($33): With Kansas City playing in prime time so much, opportunities to deploy Kelce in the Sunday Baller have been limited, so don't let this one slip by. Not only is Kelce easily the most productive tight end in the NFL, he leads all players in receiving touchdowns (12) while ranking seventh in receptions (73) and sixth in receiving yards (912). A Bengals defense that has allowed 56 catches to tight ends -- eighth most in the league -- is unlikely to slow Kelce down, and you're better off going with his near-certain top end production and the upside of a cheaper sleeper at another position rather than hoping for a big performance from a middling tight end.

Honorable Mentions

Mark Andrews, BAL vs. DEN ($25); George Kittle, SF vs. MIA ($21); Foster Moreau, LV vs. LAC ($15)

Against the Grainers

T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. NYJ ($20); Tyler Higbee, LAR vs. SEA ($15); Hayden Hurst, CIN vs. KC ($14)

DEFENSE

Green Bay Packers, GB at CHI ($15): If Justin Fields sits out again, the Packers should easily contain a Trevor Siemian-led Bears passing attack. If Fields plays, Chicago still won't be much of a threat through the air, though the Packers will have their hands full on the ground. Either way, the Bears have allowed more sacks than any other teamon this slate (42), and only Colts QBs (43) have been sacked more times than Chicago's signal callers. Green Bay has also dominated this NFC North rivalry recently, winning all seven of their meetings since the start of the 2019 season.

Honorable Mentions:

Baltimore Ravens, BAL vs. DEN ($19); Washington Commanders, WAS at NYG ($16); Cleveland Browns, CLE at HOU ($14)

Against the Grainers: 

New York Jets, NYJ at MIN ($17); San Francisco 49ers, SF vs. MIA ($16); Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT at ATL ($12)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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