This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks: Best Futures Bets for Super Bowl 59, Conference Champions and Division Winners
NFL season is officially here! The last time I've been this excited was when I broke up with my girlfriend last month. Good times. Anyway, you've seen me blessing this site to the rafters with all my NFL preseason futures, but we still have one more section to go; team success.
Let's get rolling with division winners odds. AFC, you're up first.
You can find all NFL futures for teams as well as NFL player futures here at RotoWire with updated odds at the best online sportsbooks.
NFL Division Winner Odds
AFC EAST: New York Jets +165 (DraftKings)
Easy does it, I'm no Jets fan. I actually spent most of my last two decades ridiculing those fans whether they were friends or not. In my awards article, you saw Aaron Rodgers was my pick for MVP, so by rule the Jets would have to win the division so they can be a top-two seed.
MVP pick aside, NYJ has a BUTTER schedule in the front half of the season after Week 1's tilt in San Fran. Through the first eight games, it would be a huge disappointment if they're not at least 6-2. There's a matchup with Buffalo in that span, but it's in the Dirty Jersey Week 6.
Top to bottom, it's the best roster in the AFC East and maybe in the NFL (I said MAYBE). Defense is elite. RB1 and WR1 are almost elite. QB is still probably elite, but we would like to see how the rebound came from that Achilles snap. If it's good, then I don't see Buffalo or Miami edging out Gang Green.
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AFC SOUTH: Wait and See
Honestly, the AFC South is the highest-variance division in football this season. Any team could win this one. The Texans have been getting blasted as the next "IT" team drawing so much Super Bowl Buzz and C.J. Stroud MVP noise. I get it, but I ain't buying it... at least not yet. Is all of that possible? Sure. But I believe there is a world where the Texans regress a bit and disappoint.
Their schedule isn't that easy to write them in as an Even Money division winner. The Titans have enough talent realistically to be a candidate at +950. The Colts may be my mid-season buy if they can weather the first-half storm. If Indy can be even 5-7 through their first 12 games, matchups with the Pats, Broncos, Titans, Giants and Jags could be enough to give them the final push. A lot of tough schedules for this division, so it's way too early to buy anything.
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AFC NORTH: Cincinnati Bengals +165 (FanDuel)
Another loaded division, the AFC North has quite a few options here. Ultimately, I think the Bengals are the clear cut pick here. This is almost definitely the last time they have a team this talented in the Joe Burrow/Ja'Marr Chase era. Tee Higgins is likely gone after the season. The defense is in average territory. They need to have that win it all season now.
Logistics-wise, their schedule is by far easier than Baltimore or Cleveland's. They draw the Pats, Chiefs (away), Commanders, Panthers, Ravens (home), Giants, Browns (away), Eagles (home), Raiders for their first nine games. KC is a game they can definitely win, even on the road. Ravens is winnable. Browns is likely a loss in Cleveland, and Philly is winnable at home. Conservatively though, Cincy should be at least 6-3 during this stretch.
The second half has its share of winnable games as well. If Cincy doesn't have at least 11 wins, there's a problem. According to my former colleague, Warren Sharp, the Bengals project as the third easiest strength of schedule in 2024. The Browns and Steelers are in the top five for most difficult. Ravens are in the top third of the NFL for most difficult. Bengals need to capitalize.
AFC WEST: Kansas City Chiefs -260 (DraftKings)
I hate laying a number like this, but I really don't see anybody standing in KC's way in the AFC West. It's not just because they're that good, but everybody else is bad. The Chargers are the next favorite at +350, which obviously indicates no faith. The LAC roster isn't great, so there's not much of a chance that Jim Harbaugh can crank out 11 or 12 wins in his first year. KC is definitely a great parlay leg.
NFC EAST: Philadelphia Eagles -125 (DraftKings)
The Eagles have a top 10 easy schedule this season, while Dallas - the only real contender - has a more difficult one. Schedule aside, Philly has a way better roster and team than the Cowboys who are going to be shredded on defense with a bare bones secondary after losing Daron Bland and having Trevon Diggs come back from a serious knee injury. The RB situation is a clouded mess. The Eagles should be able to win at least 12 games and skate toward another NFC East title. Washington will provide some excitement, but there are too many holes on this roster. Perhaps, their high variance fluctuation does tip to the higher side for them to sneak in as a Wild Card.
NFC SOUTH: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +320 (DraftKings)
I'm not completely sold on Tampa, my former home that I miss so effing much. South Tampa for life. It's more of an indictment that Atlanta has a lot more work to do than people think. Trust me bro. I don't just say that as a bitter Falcons fan for the last 20 years, this is an objective opinion. Can ATL be 10 or 11 wins good? Absolutely. But I need to see it first.
The Birds are ranked with the easiest schedule, but Kirk Cousins coming back from the Achilles is still a mystery, the defense has holes, the WR group is thin etc. For a -145 price, I'm not pulling the trigger on Atlanta... at least not yet. They start off with the Steelers, Eagles, Chiefs in the first three weeks, which could be three losses. Then there's an onslaught of an early, but crucial run of divisional games against the Saints, Bucs, and Panthers. By the end of Week 10, they'll have seen NOLA and Tampa twice. There's a chance they're 0-5 or 1-4 after five games.
I get Tampa is being counted on for regression. The defense isn't what it was during 2019-2021. But they still have horses on offense and could be the best of the worst. It's between these two teams in my opinion, and at more than three times the value, how could I not take a shot on the Bucs in the NFC South?
NFC NORTH: Detroit Lions +130 (DraftKings)
It's a crowded field here as well, but Detroit is the most established in the north. It took three decades, but we finally have a Lions team that is legit. The defense is definitely still flawed, but the offense is one of the best with weapons everywhere in a system that operates at premium efficiency and pain. They're equipped with a top-flight receiver in my son, Amon-Ra St. Brown, a ferocious two-headed thunder-and-smoke backfield in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the next elite TE in Sam LaPorta, and a captain of the ship QB in Jared Goff.
The schedule isn't easy, but it's manageable. When I look at Green Bay, I think there are too many obstacles. Minny has no chance unless the sky falls (great effing movie). Chicago is worth a flier at +350 in the NFC North because they're maybe the highest variance team in the league this year.
NFC WEST: San Francisco 49ers -190 (FanDuel)
Similar to the Chiefs, there's not really anybody that will stand in the way of San Fran. The price is steep, but the big part of this argument is none of the other teams in the division can beat SF once, let alone twice. Top to bottom it's maybe the best team in the NFL. I don't think they will be as good as last year when it comes to the postseason, but 11 games should be all it takes to win the NFC West, maybe 10. If you were inclined to take a sprinkle elsewhere, Seattle at 7/1 is appealing because of the upside this team has combined with a decent schedule.
NFL Conference Winners
NFC Conference Winner: Detroit Lions +550 (DraftKings)
Detroit choked away a Super Bowl berth last season. They had a three-possession lead in SF and couldn't hang on. Obviously, that's a tough pill to swallow. And getting back to that spot the next year is equally as tough. But the NFC for the last few years has become what the AFC was for a decade; the top-heavy conference with only a few real options.
I don't like Philly because they can't win a matchup against the 49ers, and I think the loss of Jason Kelce is going to hurt them more than people think. Dallas may not even make the playoffs. Green Bay has some appeal, but their price is too low and I would rather wait to take them during the season. Atlanta may miss the playoffs. My outside shots to win the NFC would be Seattle at 28/1 and Tampa 35/1, but that's a sprinkle later in the season. It'll likely be Detroit and San Francisco again. Here's my playoff seeding.
- Detroit Lions
- San Francisco 49ers
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Green Bay Packers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Washington Commanders (Considered Falcons, Bears, and Cowboys)
AFC Conference Winner: Kansas City Chiefs +350 (FanDuel)
Obviously this is chalky. Kansas City is the king until somebody proves otherwise. Personally, I'm inclined to go with the Bengals at +750 and the Jets 10/1 as well. I think those three teams are the only ones with a Super Bowl shot this year out of the AFC.
No Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston, or Miami. Let's see what Deshaun Watson does before I think about Cleveland. The Jets have every bit of a chance as KC if Rodgers stays healthy. Cincy has proven to be the only team that can consistently run with the Chiefs over the last few years. That's why I picked them to win it all last season. During the season, I will probably dabble with the other two teams.
The intriguing thing for KC is they could potentially lose games one and two against Baltimore and Cincy, which would boost their odds to win the AFC. But I'm going with the dynasty right now. The AFC playoffs will be as follows.
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Kansas City Chiefs
- New York Jets
- Houston Texans
- Cleveland Browns
- Baltimore Ravens
- Miami Dolphins
Super Bowl Picks
Super Bowl: Lions (+1200) over Chiefs - Exact Result +5500 (DraftKings)
Like what happened in the kick off game last season in KC between these two teams, Detroit's defense found a way to create pressure and force mistakes on the Chiefs end. Without L'Jarius Sneed this season, the KC defense loses a huge secondary piece that allows Amon-Ra and company to move the rock. Detroit wins a close one 24-20.
Also like a ticket on the Jets +1900 and Bengals +1500. At the moment, these are the only four teams I think will be in the best position to win. Keep a look out for my updates through out the season.
Best of luck in 2024.
