NFL Expert Picks: Week 13 Monday Night Football Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

NFL Expert Picks: Week 13 Monday Night Football Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

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Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 13

The Cleveland Browns (3-8) travel to Denver to take on the Broncos (7-5) in an AFC conference matchup on Monday Night Football. The Browns are 4th in the AFC North, while the Broncos are firmly in the playoff hunt and sit 3rd in the AFC West.

Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds

Browns +6.5 (FanDuel -115) / Broncos -6.0 (BetRivers -110)

Browns ML (be365 +230) / Broncos ML (DraftKings Sportsbook -270)

Total OVER 41.5 (BetRivers -110) / UNDER 42.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook -120)

The Browns opened as -3.5 road favorites last spring, thus the line has moved as much as 10.5 points in favor of the Broncos. It peaked at -7.0, dipped to -5.5, and now sits between -6.0 and -6.5. The total opened 43.0 and it dropped to 40.0 on 11/21, but it then climbed back up to 41.0, then 42.0. 

The majority of the bets (70%) have come in on the Broncos, while the handle (78%) has also come in on the Broncos which reflects that the "sharp" money has landed on Denver. There is a 8% difference on bets versus handle.

The total has money on the Over at 55% of total bets, and 73% of the handle. There is a 18% percent difference on the Over for bets versus handle. The moneyline shows who has taken a position on the game, as the Broncos have received 85% of the bets and 75% of the handle. 

Key Injuries

Browns - LT Jedrick Wills (O), FS Juan Thornhill (O) 

Broncos - None 

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Browns vs. Broncos Betting Picks 

It remains hard to lay points in the NFL, especially in such a low scoring environment with two solid defenses and questionable offenses. The Broncos are on a 8-2 roll against the spread in their last 10 games. Bo Nix has caught fire over his last 5 games with 11 touchdowns vs. just 1 interception, while averaging 260 passing yards. The Browns are just 3-6 against the spread in their last 9 road games and 3-9 straight up in their last 12.

Browns vs. Broncos Best Bet: Under 42.5 (FanDuel -115)

Secondary Bet: Bo Nix Over 220.5 Passing Yards (FanDuel -110)

Browns vs. Broncos Prediction

The Browns offense ranks 31st in points per game (16.9) without major improvement  with Jameis Winston now at quarterback. They come in off a 24-19 home win last Thursday against the Steelers. The Broncos defense ranks 2nd in points per game allowed (16.8), so hard to see a lot of points scored in this game. I like the Broncos to win, but in a low scoring game with theBrowns getting the cover.

Broncos 16, Browns 13

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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