NFL Game Previews: Christmas Matchups

MONDAY

Las Vegas (+10) at Kansas City, o/u 42 – Monday, 1 p.m. EST

The Raiders aren't eliminated from the playoffs yet, but only in the mathematical sense – there's four teams with more wins than them standing between Vegas and the last AFC wild-card spot, which means an awful lot of dominoes would have to fall to make it happen. At the very least, the Raiders have the heads of a couple coaches on their wall as a trophy. Last week's destruction of the Chargers was the proximate cause of Brandon Staley getting canned, and of course they played Josh McDaniels right out of a job right before Halloween. The Raiders are 3-3 under interim coach Antonio Pierce, and now they get a chance to play spoiler down the stretch, with games against the Colts and Broncos following this one. Aidan O'Connell may have saved his starting job with last week's four-TD performance, but since taking over he still only has a 62.5 percent completion rate, a 6.8 YPA and a 7:5 TD:INT – decent numbers for a fourth-round rookie, but not anything that's going to stop the team from looking for an upgrade in the offseason. Davante Adams has also been getting the target volume he always should have been since the coaching switch, posting a 37-429-2 line on 62 looks with O'Connell under center. With Josh Jacobs still not 100 percent, the Raiders' passing game could get a workout again.

With the Ravens now two games ahead of the AFC West leaders, and the Dolphins holding a better record too, Kansas City faces the horrifying prospect of having to play a postseason game on the road for the first time in Patrick Mahomes' career. The sluggish performance of the passing game has landed them in this (relative) mess, but it keeps showing flickers of coming to life – twice in the last four games, Mahomes has completed better than 70 percent of his passes with a YPA above 8.0, multiple TDs and about 300 yards, which used to be about the baseline for a Mahomes performance. As for the two games in between against the Bills and Packers... well, let's move on. Rashee Rice's emergence as a dependable No. 1 wideout, and someone defenses need to worry about who isn't dating Taylor Swift, has gone a long way toward steadying the Kansas City attack and getting it closer to expectations. How that formula plays in the playoffs remains to be seen, though. As an added bonus, Kadarius Toney is also sidelined, which should be addition by subtraction as he won't be able to take any points off the board with some head-scratching blunder.

The Skinny

LV injuries: RB Jacobs (questionable, quadriceps), TE Michael Mayer (out, toe)
KC injuries: RB Jerick McKinnon (out, groin), WR Toney (out, hip)

LV DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: none

LV DFS fades: O'Connell (KC fifth in passing DVOA, fifth in net passing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPA allowed), Hunter Renfrow (KC is third in DVOA vs. WR3)
KC DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 10-1 KC, average score 36-19 KC, average margin of victory 18 points. KC has scored 30 or more points in eight straight meetings, including a 31-17 victory in Week 12
Key stat: KC is fifth in third-down conversions at 46.6 percent; LV is t-26th in third-down defense at 42.5 percent

Weather notes: 15-20 mph wind, 70-80 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jacobs plays and manages 50 yards. O'Connell throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Adams. Isiah Pacheco returns with 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Mahomes throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Rice and Travis Kelce. Kansas City 24-13

N.Y. Giants (+11.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 42.5
Monday, 4:30 p.m. EST

While they got handled pretty easily by the Saints last week, the Giants have still clawed their way out of the NFC East basement, by winning their prior three, which is about the best they can hope for out of 2023. They get an awful closing stretch though, facing Philly twice with the Rams in between, which should help their draft position for 2024. Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen seem unlikely to admit they made the wrong call on Daniel Jones, so I'm expecting their top-10, or even top-five, pick to get used on an offensive lineman, which isn't a bad idea anyway for the team that's lapping the field in sacks allowed. Giants QBs have been brought down 76 times this season; Jets' quarterbacks are second at 61. The buzz from Tommy DeVito's nice game against the Commanders has faded, and over the last three contests his solid 67.5 percent completion rate comes with a 2:0 TD:INT and a 6.6 YPA. He's played well enough to be Jones' backup for the next couple years, but that's about it. New York's defense has had trouble slowing down top offenses all season, allowing 30-plus points to each of the Cowboys (twice), 49ers and Dolphins, plus another 30-burger against the Raiders for fun. (They did hold Buffalo to 14 points back in Week 6, but that had a lot more to do with the Bills than the Giants.) The Eagles are absolutely talented enough to join that group if they get their act together in time.

The Eagles may not have been as good as their record looked when they were 10-1 and the darlings of the league, but they aren't as bad as they've looked while losing three straight and tumbling down to the fifth seed in the NFC, either. The passing game's gone stagnant, with Jalen Hurts topping 200 yards just once in five games since the team's bye, but he's bailed out those with fantasy shares in him with seven rushing TDs during that stretch. He's now just one brotherly shove away from the all-time NFL record for rushing touchdowns in a season by a QB – I'll predict he sets it on Philly's first possession of the second quarter. A.J. Brown's at least maintained good volume during Hurts' passing slump, and over those five games he's still scrounged together a 28-309-1 line on 49 targets, which would be acceptable for a lesser wideout but feels disappointing given the way he terrorized secondaries in the first half of the season. DeVonta Smith's posted an even better 32-424-2 line on 42 targets during that stretch, so basically, no one else on the roster has gotten squat. First-year OC Brian Johnson may need to find a little more balance to get things going again.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: K Graham Gano (IR, knee), K Randy Bullock (IR, hamstring)
PHI injuries: LB Zach Cunningham (out, knee), LB Nicholas Morrow (questionable, abdomen)

NYG DFS targets: DeVito (PHI 28th in net passing yards per game allowed, 31st in passing TDs allowed), Darren Waller (PHI 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
PHI DFS targets: D'Andre Swift (NYG 28th in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed)

NYG DFS fades: none
PHI DFS fades: Dallas Goedert (NYG first in DVOA vs. TE)

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 9-2 PHI, average score 28-17 PHI, average margin of victory 14 points. PHI has won 10 straight home meetings, including a 38-7 drubbing in last season's divisional round, and NYG's last victory in Lincoln Financial Field came in Week 8 of the 2013 campaign, when Eli Manning led five field-goal drives in a 15-7 win
Key stat: PHI is ninth in red-zone conversions at 60.8 percent (31-for-51); NYG are 24th in red-zone defense at 61.2 percent (30-for-49)

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Saquon Barkley picks up 60 combined yards. DeVito throws for under 200 yards and gets sacked six times, but does toss a touchdown to Wan'Dale Robinson. Swift erupts for 130 scrimmage yards and a TD. Hurts throws for 280 yards and two scores, both to Brown (who tops 100 yards), and he also runs in a touchdown of his own to make history. Eagles 34-10

Baltimore (+5.5) at San Francisco, o/u 46
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Talk about a marquee matchup. The Ravens come into this potential Super Bowl preview fourth in the league in points per game, while also having allowed the fewest TDs (passing plus rushing) to quarterbacks. The Niners are third and second in those categories. San Francisco is tied for first in takeaways; Baltimore is alone in first in sacks. The visitors are second in trips to the red zone, while the home squad is third. Etc. etc. The AFC North leaders' potent running attack did just lose rookie Keaton Mitchell to an ACL tear as the curse on the backfield seems to still be in full effect, but Gus Edwards has been Mr. Reliable when needed this season and even Justice Hill has shown some flashes. Lamar Jackson may have to start airing it out more than he likes, but he's been regressing after a stretch in which it looked like OC Todd Monken's scheme was all coming together. Over the last five games, Jackson's stumbled to a 57.4 percent completion rate with a 7.8 YPA and 8:4 TD:INT, and he doesn't even have a rushing TD to supplement that production. The Ravens' defense has had a couple hiccups recently too, giving up 33 points to the Browns in Week 10 and 31 points to the Rams in Week 14, but they bounced back well from both of those performances. They control their own destiny when it comes to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but tough draws against the Dolphins and the Steelers after this battle won't make it easy.

Ho hum, another rout for the best team in the NFL. The 49ers scored a season-high 45 points last week against the Cards, the third time they've topped 40, and Kyle Shanahan's crew has churned out over 400 yards of offense six of the last seven contests, with only the Seahawks keeping them vaguely in check at 377 in their first meeting of the year – back at home for the rematch two weeks later, the Niners cranked out a season-high 527. There's just nothing any defense seems to be able to do against them when all the key pieces are healthy. Brock Purdy's putting the finishing touches on an MVP-caliber campaign, and the only thing that might stop him from winning is the votes Christian McCaffrey might get instead. Purdy's got a 17:2 TD:INT over the last six games with an impossible 11.0 YPA and 71.9 percent completion rate, and he's closing in on Kurt Warner's modern record of a 9.9 YPA set in 2000 – Purdy's also got a 9.9 YPA at the moment, and above those two are guys from the 1940s and 1950s like Sid Luckman (10.9 YPA in '43), Otto Graham (10.6 in '53) and Norm Van Brocklin (10.1 in '54) who were almost playing a different sport. Over that same stretch, CMac has 857 scrimmage yards and seven total TDs, while Deebo Samuel has nine total touchdowns (five receiving, four rushing) and 562 combined yards. Oh yeah, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle have seven receiving TDs and three 100-yard games between them too in those six weeks. The Niners' defense let up in the fourth quarter last week against the Cardinals after five straight games of holding opponents under 20 points, but it would be shocking if their focus slipped in this one.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB Mitchell (IR, knee), WR Zay Flowers (questionable, foot), TE Mark Andrews (IR, ankle)
SF injuries: RB Elijah Mitchell (questionable, knee)

BAL DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: Odell Beckham (SF third in DVOA vs. WR2), Isaiah Likely (SF third in DVOA vs. TE)
SF DFS fades: Purdy (BAL second in passing DVOA, first in YPA allowed, t-1st in passing TDs allowed)

Key stat: SF is first in red-zone conversions at 68.5 percent (37-for-54); BAL is t-2nd in red-zone defense at 37.5 percent (15-for-40)

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Edwards bangs out 80 yards and a TD, while Hill adds 60 yards. Jackson throws for 210 yards and two scores, finding Flowers and Rashod Bateman. McCaffrey busts out 140 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Purdy throws for 300 yards and two more TDs, hitting Samuel and Kittle, while also running in a score of his own. 49ers 35-24

EARLY SUNDAY

Indianapolis (+1) at Atlanta, o/u 44 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Colts' win over the Steelers last week helped create a three-way tie at the top of the AFC South, with Indy, Houston and Jacksonville all at 8-6. Tiebreakers have the Jags currently winning the division and the Colts in a wild-card spot, with the Texans shut out of the postseason, but pretty much any scenario is on the table over the final three weeks. Indy also gets Jonathan Taylor back this week, although the running game did just fine last week once Zack Moss was out of the picture. Gardner Minshew has a 6:1 TD:INT over the last three games, his best stretch since taking over the starting job, and the Colts' closing schedule doesn't feature any especially stingy secondaries. The defense also keeps racking up takeaways, and with three more against Pittsburgh, Indy's now one back of the league lead. Shane Steichen has the team headed in the right direction, but it might come down to injury luck whether the Colts are in the postseason when the dust settles.

Losers of two straight one-score games against teams they could have beaten, the Falcons are a game back of the Saints and Bucs in the NFC South, but they very much do not seem to be headed in the right direction. Managing only seven points against Carolina cost Desmond Ridder his starting job (again), and while Taylor Heinicke isn't really much of an improvement, like Minshew he should at least be more exciting. Bijan Robinson and Drake London again disappeared last week, with Robinson getting only eight touches and London just three targets, and yet somehow Arthur Smith hasn't been kicked to the curb yet like Brandon Staley or Josh McDaniels. Depending on how the next two weeks go, Atlanta's Week 18 game in New Orleans might end up being fairly meaningless, and a team that wasn't able to score more than 16 points against the Commanders, Jets or Panthers probably doesn't deserve to make the playoffs anyway.

The Skinny

IND injuries: RB Moss (out, forearm), WR Michael Pittman (questionable, concussion/shoulder) 
ATL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

IND DFS targets: Taylor (ATL 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Colts DST (t-3rd in takeaways, t-3rd in sacks)
ATL DFS targets: Van Jefferson (IND 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

IND DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: none

Key stat: ATL is 19th in red-zone conversions at 52.5 percent (21-for-40); IND is 18th in red-zone defense at 56.8 percent (25-for-44)

The Scoop: Taylor dashes for 100 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and on e receiving. Minshew throws for 270 yards and two more scores, one each to Pittman and Kylen Granson. Robinson picks up 80 yards and a touchdown. Heinicke throws for under 200 yards and a score to London. Colts 28-20

Green Bay at Carolina (+5), o/u 36 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

If the Packers win out, they'll still be at 9-8 and potentially have a shot at a wild-card spot, but they have made things a lot more difficult for themselves with two straight fairly ugly losses. Aaron Jones returned last week, but it didn't help much as the defense continues to collapse – it's found a way to make both Tommy DeVito and Baker Mayfield look good in consecutive weeks. It's probably just a coincidence that both losses have come with Christian Watson injured again, but Jordan Love is running out of targets the other team really has to fear. Even if players like Watson and Luke Musgrave get back onto the field before the end of the year though, it won't make much difference if the other team keeps piling up over 400 yards of offense (Green Bay's defense has coughed up 402.8 a game over the last five weeks.) DC Joe Barry has been around for a while – seven seasons in the job for three different franchises – and his units have finished in the top half of the league in points allowed or yards allowed only once (13th and ninth, respective, in 2021 with the Packers). Regardless of how the team finishes the year, he seems unlikely to be back in 2024.

The Panthers have every incentive in the world to keep trying and cost the Bears the first overall pick in 2024, but at the moment they still have the worst record in the league and a closing schedule that features three teams that figure to have something to play for. That was true last week too and they came out on top, but that result was a lot more about Atlanta losing the game than Carolina winning it. Bryce Young didn't commit a turnover last week for the first time since Week 10, but he also hasn't produced a TD in four straight games and hasn't thrown for 200 yards in seven straight. Despite the struggles of the passing game, Chuba Hubbard has been able to stay productive, piling up 396 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns over the last four games. It's been a volume-driven performance, as his YPC is 3.8 over that stretch, but the Panthers will take it. This is a team that hasn't scored more than 18 points in a game since mid-October, so they'll take anything at this point.

The Skinny

GB injuries: RB AJ Dillon (questionable, thumb), WR Watson (doubtful, hamstring), WR Jayden Reed (questionable, toe), WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable, ankle), TE Musgrave (IR-R, abdomen), LB De'Vondre Campbell (out, neck), S Rudy Ford (questionable, back)
CAR injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

GB DFS targets: Jones (CAR 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)
CAR DFS targets: none

GB DFS fades: Reed (CAR second in DVOA vs. WR3)
CAR DFS fades: Panthers DST (32nd in takeaways, 32nd in sacks)

Key stat: CAR is 29th in red-zone conversions at 45.5 percent (15-for-33); GB is ninth in red-zone defense at 51.0 percent (25-for-49)

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Jones churns out 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Love throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding Romeo Doubs and Tucker Kraft. Hubbard picks up 60 yards and a TD. Young throws for under 200 yards but does hit Jonathan Mingo for a touchdown. Packers 27-14

Cleveland (+2.5) at Houston, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Flaccomania is running wild in Cleveland, as the veteran quarterback may have just saved the Browns' season, or at least postponed its demise for a few weeks. They're still probably not catching the Ravens in the AFC North, but Joe Flacco has them in the top wild-card spot thanks to two straight wins in which he's thrown for 685 yards and five TDs. Of course, he's also committed five turnovers in those games, but hey, he's a 38-year-old guy who was sitting on his couch not too long ago, so he's not going to be perfect. What he has done is made Amari Cooper and David Njoku relevant again, and made sure the offense isn't completely one-dimensional. Myles Garrett and the defense may have gotten back on track last week too – 14 first downs by Chicago was the lowest total Cleveland had allowed since holding Baltimore to 13 in Week 4 – and it's the latter unit that should have more say in whether the team is still playing past the first week of January.

If the Texans do end up making the playoffs, last week's come-from-behind OT win over the Titans with Case Keenum under center will loom very, very large. They aren't out of the woods yet though, as C.J. Stroud will remain sidelined for a second straight game and Houston wraps up its schedule with two more divisional contests. Without a healthy Stroud, not to mention Tank Dell, the Texans have scored 25 total points over the last two games – they scored more than that in the second half against the Bucs not so long ago. Devin Singletary has been putting up heroic numbers out of the backfield, but without a threat from the passing attack, he's nowhere near enough.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: S Grant Delpit (IR, groin)
HOU injuries: QB Stroud (out, concussion), WR Nico Collins (questionable, calf), EDGE Will Anderson (out, ankle), LB Denzel Perryman (questionable, Achilles), LB Blake Cashman (out, hamstring)

CLE DFS targets: Cedric Tillman (HOU 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
HOU DFS targets: none

CLE DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: Keenum (CLE first in passing DVOA, first in net passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed), Collins (CLE first in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: HOU is 16th in third-down conversions at 38.9 percent; CLE is first in third-down defense at 28.3 percent

The Scoop: Jerome Ford leads the CLE backfield with 70 yards. Flacco throws for 300 yards and two TDs, one each to Cooper (who tops 100 yards) and Tillman. Singletary manages 50 yards. Keenum throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Noah Brown, but he also tosses a pick-six to Sione Takitaki. Browns 24-13

Detroit at Minnesota (+3), o/u 47 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Lions will officially clinch their first NFC North title since 1993 with a victory, but it's basically a foregone conclusion even for a team that has historically been so averse to success – they're three games up on the Vikings with three to play. Detroit may have its eyes on a bigger prize, though, as they're just a game back of San Francisco for the top seed in the conference. Last week's drubbing of the Broncos marked the third time this season Jared Goff has led the Lions to more than 40 points, tied for the second-highest total in the league with the Niners and Dolphins (the Cowboys have done it five times, which makes next week's clash with the Lions one of Week 17's marquee matchups.) Goff's five TD passes against Denver tied his career high, set back in 2018 with the Rams, while rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs appears to be inching ahead in the battle for the top spot in the backfield, gobbling up 190 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns over the last two games while David Montgomery has 167 yards and zero TDs. Landing Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta, who's closing in on only the third double-digit TD season by a rookie tight end in NFL history after Gronk's 10 in 2010 and Mike Ditka's 12 in 1961, should already make Brad Holmes Exec of the Year, above and beyond the team's winning ways on the field, but basically the entire top of the team's 2023 draft class has been special. Jack Cambell's shown flashes at linebacker, Brian Branch has been a contributor in the secondary, and if Detroit is able to rest starters in Week 18, we might even see a Hendon Hooker debut.

Last week's OT loss to the Bengals could end up torpedoing the Vikings' season, but for the moment they're still in a wild-card spot at 7-7. Minnesota's lost three of four though, and the loss of Kirk Cousins seems to be catching up to them at last, as Joshua Dobbs was a bust and Nick Mullens' two INTs in Cincy territory ended up being very costly. Mullens will remain the starter, largely because the Vikes don't have anyone else they can rely on, and he at least posted good volume numbers last week when he was throwing the ball to the right uniform. Having Justin Jefferson available will do that. Ty Chandler is also coming off the best game of his career and offers the offense an explosive element Alexander Mattison never did as the No. 1 RB. Even if Mattison gets healthy, he could find himself in the backup role again.

The Skinny

DET injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
MIN injuries: RB Mattison (questionable, ankle), LB Ivan Pace (questionable, shoulder), LB Jordan Hicks (IR-R, shin)

DET DFS targets: none
MIN DFS targets: Jordan Addison (DET 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

DET DFS fades: none
MIN DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 MIN, average score 28-21 MIN, average margin of victory nine points. MIN has won five straight meetings at US Bank Stadium by an average score of 25-15
Key stat: DET is seventh in third-down conversions at 43.2 percent; MIN is 23rd in third-down defense at 40.6 percent

The Scoop: Gibbs racks up 120 combined yards and a score, while Montgomery adds 50 yards and a touchdown. Goff throws for 320 yards and two TDs, one each to Amon-Ra St. Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Josh Reynolds. Chandler totes up 80 scrimmage yards. Mullens throws for 220 yards and two scores, hitting Jefferson and Addison. Lions 31-20

Washington (+3) at N.Y. Jets, o/u 38 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

A league-worst five-game losing streak has catapulted the Commanders into the top five in the 2024 draft, which puts the decision to bench Sam Howell last week in a new light. Just how committed to him as their new starting QB are they, exactly? For that matter, just how committed is the front office to Ron Rivera? (I'm guessing the answer at this point is not at all.) Howell's gone cold along with the weather, throwing just two TDs over the last four games with a sub-60 percent completion rate, a 5.7 YPA and six INTs, but Jacoby Brissett obviously isn't a long-term answer in his place. Brissett did remember to target Terry McLaurin though, which was nice to see. The backfield could also be seeing a changing of the guard, and Brian Robinson's injury has opened the door for rookie Chris Rodriguez to get a real look. He didn't wow anyone with his numbers last week, but the Rams have been tough on RBs all year, and he at least offers more theoretical upside than Antonio Gibson. Given that Washington closes out its schedule with games against San Francisco and Dallas, this figures to be the team's last chance to secure one more win, and the Jets' offense might just be incompetent enough that even the Commanders' defense can't make them look great.

With the Aaron Rodgers drama finally over (for 2023, anyway), Gang Green can focus its attention on just getting this dumpster fire of a season over with. Last week's shutout at the hands of the Dolphins marked the fourth time in the last seven games the Jets have been held below 10 points, but 103 yards and 11 first downs were stunningly awful even by their standards. Trevor Siemian, who took most of the snaps last week, will be back under center again and backed up by Brett Rypien, but it really hasn't mattered who's been the signal-caller this year. Nothing's really worked, at least not consistently, and on the list of coaches who seem like they should be fired already, OC Nathaniel Hackett should be at the top of the list. Being Rodgers' buddy shouldn't save him – this is the second straight year his offensive scheme has been dysfunctional, and last season he didn't have the excuse of an injured QB.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: RB Robinson (out, hamstring)
NYJ injuries: QB Zach Wilson (out, concussion), S Jordan Whitehead (questionable, knee)

WAS DFS targets: Commanders DST (NYJ 31st in giveaways, 31st in sacks allowed)
NYJ DFS targets: Siemian (WAS 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in net passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Garrett Wilson (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)

WAS DFS fades: Howell (NYJ third in passing DVOA, second in net passing yards per game allowed, t-3rd in passing TDs allowed), Jahan Dotson (NYJ first in DVOA vs. WR2), Curtis Samuel (NYJ first in DVOA vs. WR3)
NYJ DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYJ are 32nd in red-zone conversions at 34.5 percent (10-for-29), and 32nd in red-zone trips; WAS is 19th in red-zone defense at 57.1 percent 

Weather notes: 15-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Rodriguez leads the WAS backfield with 60 yards, while Antonio Gibson adds 50 and a receiving touchdown. Howell throws for under 200 yards. Breece Hall produces 70 yards and a score. Siemian throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Wilson but gets picked off twice. Commanders 16-14

Seattle at Tennessee (+2.5), o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The NFC has been a true survival of the fittest thing this season, as nearly every contender has had a stretch of four or five games in a row against the other conference powers that acted as a stress test. The Seahawks just finished theirs with a win over the Eagles, but four straight losses before that have left them at 7-7 and scrambling just to get a wild-card spot. That they beat Philly with Drew Lock at QB makes the victory even more improbable, but Geno Smith should be back at the helm for this one. Less clear is who will head the backfield, as Kenneth Walker reclaimed the No. 1 job last week only to pick up a new injury, this one to his shoulder. Seattle's ability to draft and acquire RBs who can't stay healthy is uncanny (and should make anyone with Zach Charbonnet shares in dynasty leagues nervous), but on paper this is a more enticing matchup for the team's passing attack, although recent results for the Titans suggest the Seahawks might be able to move the ball however they want. DK Metcalf saw his volume decline working with Lock but still stayed reasonably productive, so getting Smith back could put him back in the zone that saw him erupt for a 21-358-4 line on 38 targets over the prior four contests.

Last week's OT loss to the C.J. Stroud-less Texans eliminated the Titans from the playoffs, so all they can do the rest of the way in play spoiler and hurt their draft position. Rookie QB Will Levis gutted out an ankle injury, but with nothing much to play for, Tennessee might elect to give Ryan Tannehill one more start for old time's sake and make sure the kid is 100 percent before he gets back on the field. It shouldn't have a big impact on the offense either way. Derrick Henry seems to be playing out the string on his own Titans tenure, and DeAndre Hopkins remains the only downfield threat through the air. Even the normally stout run defense is undermanned and checked out – it's one thing to get gashed by Raheem Mostert and the Dolphins, but when Devin Singletary runs all over you, something is very wrong.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Walker (questionable, shoulder), S Jamal Adams (out, knee)
TEN injuries: QB Levis (questionable, ankle), TE Chigoziem Okonkwo (questionable, illness), DE Jeffery Simmons (out, knee), LB Jack Gibbens (out, back)

SEA DFS targets: Metcalf (TEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR1) 
TEN DFS targets: Treylon Burks (SEA 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

SEA DFS fades: none
TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN is 31st in red-zone conversions at 43.9 percent (18-for-41); SEA is 25th in red-zone defense at 63.6 percent

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop: Walker leads the SEA backfield with 70 yards. Smith throws for 270 yards and three TDs, two to Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) and one to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Henry grinds out 60 yards and a score, while Tyjae Spears adds 50 yards. Tannehill gets the start and throws for 220 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Hopkins and Burks. Seahawks 27-21

LATE SUNDAY

Jacksonville (+1) at Tampa Bay, o/u 43 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Jaguars are in free fall, losing three straight games to let the Colts and Texans catch up to them in the AFC South. A 3-1 record in games against those two – they swept Indy – still has them ahead on a tiebreaker, but Jacksonville no longer has any (further) margin for error. Trevor Lawrence is at least proving his toughness, limping off the field late against the Bengals a few weeks ago but not missing a start, and then suffering a concussion last week against the Ravens that doesn't look like it will keep him off the field either. He may want to have words with his offensive line about all that, and while his numbers have taken a downturn during that time, it's hard to tell whether that's more the result of playing at less than 100 percent, or playing against Baltimore and Cleveland without the services of Christian Kirk. Calvin Ridley has seen his two highest target totals of the season in the two games Kirk has missed so far, but only managed to turn that increased volume into nine grabs for 92 yards. If the Jags are going to turn things around, they likely need Ridley to start coming up big.

A .500 record is good enough to put the Bucs atop the NFC South for now, with a Week 4 road win over the Saints giving them a tiebreaker edge until their rematch next week. Tampa's offense seems to be peaking at the right time to carry them into the playoffs, though. Baker Mayfield is coming off maybe of the best games of his career, Mike Evans has six TD catches in the last six contests, and Rachaad White has produced four straight performances of 100-plus scrimmage yards. Full marks to OC Dave Canales, the long-time Seattle assistant who's getting his first crack at calling the shots on an offense. Todd Bowles' defense has been hit and miss while dealing with injuries, and though the unit hasn't produced multiple takeaways in a game since Week 7 and even shown some cracks against the run, an area in which the Bucs usually excel, the key players are at least mostly healthy now. If any team in this division is going to give a respectable division champ by the end of the regular season, it's most likely to be this one.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: QB Lawrence (questionable, concussion/ankle), WR Zay Jones (questionable, hamstring)
TB injuries: S Antoine Winfield (questionable, calf)

JAC DFS targets: Parker Washington (TB 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)
TB DFS targets: none

JAC DFS fades: none
TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: TB is 11th in third-down conversions at 41.5 percent; JAC is sixth in third-down defense at 35.8 percent

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop: Travis Etienne churns out 80 scrimmage yards. Lawrence throws for 270 yards and three TDs, one each to Ridley, Washington and Evan Engram. White picks up 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Mayfield throws for 230 yards and two scores, finding Evans and Trey Palmer. Jaguars 27-24

Arizona (+4.5) at Chicago, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

If this game could be summed up in a meme, you know exactly which one it would be. The Cardinals clearly used their late bye well, as they actually outgained the 49ers last week and only lost by two scores. Granted, most of that production by Arizona came in garbage time, but it still looks good in the box score. The issue for the team right now is that while they've been pretty bad in 2023, they may not have been bad enough. The Cards are currently headed for the third overall pick in next year's draft, which presents a dilemma in what's generally viewed as a two-QB draft class for a team that increasingly looks like it should move on from Kyler Murray. The fifth-year signal-caller has a 62.1 percent completion rate, 6.4 YPA and 4:4 TD:INT in five games since coming off IR, and while he's added a few rushing scores to his ledger as well, those numbers aren't worth the $46 million a season he's set to make over the next five years. Trey McBride's been the only player to really benefit from having Murray running the offense, as the second-year tight end has a 38-425-1 line on 45 targets over the QB's five starts and has emerged as the team's only reliable receiving option. James Conner has also been having one of his hot streaks with 191 rushing yards and three TDs over the last two games, but there's no guarantee he'll even be on the roster next year. Shipping Murray out for whatever they can get and rebuilding the offense around a new guy makes the most sense, but if the Cards can't be sure they'll be able to get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, that plan becomes a lot riskier.

The Bears have no such dilemma, since they'll get the Panthers' first-round pick and Carolina still seems comfortably set to finish with the worst record in the league even after stumbling into a win last week. Adios, Justin Fields. Chicago's own pick would land at fifth overall had the season ended after Week 15, but they have three more games to crawl a little higher or sink a lot lower. Fields' performance as a passer since he returned from a thumb injury has been even worse than Murray's – 60.9 percent completion rate, 5.8 YPA, 3:2 TD:INT in four starts plus a rushing TD – and he's still on his rookie contract, so he'll be a lot easier to move in the offseason. DJ Moore is 71 yards and one touchdown away from setting new career highs in both categories, but otherwise there haven't been any bright spots on offense for the Bears. DC Alan Williams has the defense playing well though, and it wouldn't be hard for the team's brain trust to convince itself the team could be the 2024 version of the Texans with the right young QB and right moves to support him.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: WR Marquise Brown (out, heel), WR Greg Dortch (questionable, shoulder)
CHI injuries: RB D'Onta Foreman (questionable, personal), TE Cole Kmet (questionable, quadriceps)

ARI DFS targets: none
CHI DFS targets: Fields (ARI 31st in passing DVOA, t-29th in passing TDs allowed), Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert (ARI 30th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Moore (ARI 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

ARI DFS fades: none
CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: CHI is 12th in red-zone conversions at 56.8 percent (21-for-37); ARI is 23rd in red-zone defense at 60.7 percent

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 15-25 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Conner puts together 90 yards and a touchdown. Murray throws for under 200 yards and runs in a score. Johnson leads the CHI backfield with 120 scrimmage yards and a TD. Fields throws for under 200 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Moore and Tyler Scott. Bears 24-20

Dallas (+1.5) at Miami, o/u 51 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Last week's dud in Buffalo for the Cowboys looked pretty similar to their dud in San Francisco earlier in the season, and places a lot of pressure on Dallas to get as high a playoff seed as possible for the playoffs. If this team has to go on the road in a wild-card game, even if it's against the NFC South champ, yet another one-and-done seems disturbingly plausible if you're a fan. Even by the standards of the road version of Dak Prescott though, last week's performance was abysmal and included an impossibly low 3.9 YPA. It almost felt like the team went into the game expecting to have to dink and dunk it in bad weather, and never adjusted when conditions turned out to be pretty nice at kickoff. The more likely explanation though was the loss of Zack Martin early in the contest, and the All-Pro right guard may not be 100 percent for this one either. Miami is second in the league in sacks and third in pressure rate, so if Prescott's protection is compromised – Tyron Smith's also out of the lineup for his regular 300-snap checkup – things could get ugly again.

The Dolphins are still two games up on the Bills after shutting out the Jets last week, but their closing stretch is brutal – home to 10-win Dallas and on the road against 11-win Baltimore before a home showdown with Buffalo in Week 18 that could be for all the AFC East marbles. Since their bye, the Fish have averaged 31.2 points a game while giving up just 13.8, and they were about three minutes against Will Levis and the Titans away from going 5-0. They played no playoff contenders during that time though, so those were really just tune-ups. Miami got by without Tyreek Hill last week, but they were only facing the Jets. Hill's quest for 2k yards took a hit due to the absence, but it's not out of the question yet – he'd need to average 153 yards over the final three games, a mark he's beaten five times already this year. Tua Tagovailoa's also been slowing down, and the fourth-year hasn't thrown for 300 yards in four straight games, posting a 4:2 TD:INT over that stretch. He's still been incredibly efficient over those games with a 74.8 percent completion rate and 8.9 YPA, but if Tyreek's going to make history, the duo will need to get hot again.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
MIA injuries: WR Hill (questionable, ankle), S Jevon Holland (questionable, knee)

DAL DFS targets: none
MIA DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: Jaylen Waddle (DAL second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: MIA is second in red-zone conversions at 68.0 percent (34-for-50); DAL is 22nd in red-zone defense at 60.5 percent (23-for-38)

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind

The Scoop: Tony Pollard pops for 120 combined yards and a score. Prescott throws for 260 yards and two TDs, one each to CeeDee Lamb (who tops 100 yards) and Jake Ferguson. Raheem Mostert also collects 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while De'Von Achane adds 50 yards and a score. Tagovailoa throws for 290 yards and two TDs, both to Hill (who tops 100 yards). Dolphins 34-24

SUNDAY NIGHT

New England (+6.5) at Denver, o/u 34.5 – Sunday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Patriots gave the defending champs a bit of trouble last week, but Kansas City exerted its dominance in the second half to pull away. New England's now 3-11 and has a real shot at picking second or even first in next year's draft, which would provide a real answer to the QB questions that have plagued the team since Tom Brady split. In the meantime, Bailey Zappe will play out the string. He's looked better than I expected since taking over the offense from Mac Jones, delivering a 71.2 percent completion rate and 7.1 YPA in his two starts with a 4:2 TD:INT, but three of those touchdowns went to Hunter Henry, who is out this week. I have a hard time seeing Mike Gesicki just stepping into that role, even though on paper the matchup is a good one. There are injuries up and down the roster, but when the focus is on 2024 (regardless of what Bill Belichick says publicly), that's not the worst thing that can happen a team.

A thumping in Detroit left the Broncos at 7-7 and out of a wild-card spot, but a soft landing with their schedule gives them a chance to climb back into the picture – they host the Bolts next week before heading to Vegas for Week 18. Russell Wilson has settled in to being thoroughly adequate, posting a 66.7 percent completion rate, 6.9 YPA and 8:4 TD:INT in six games since Denver's bye, and Courtland Sutton's been his only semi-consistent target during that stretch. Wilson's quietly joined Dak Prescott and Jared Goff in the No Place Like Home club, producing a 109.8 QB rating and 13:1 TD:INT at Mile High but an 88.8 QB rating and 11:7 TD:INT everywhere else. Barring a big turnaround by Javonte Williams, this really isn't a very scary attack, but the defense had been stingy until last week's letdown and should be able to rebound. Against the Pats, Wilson shouldn't need to do much to get the team back over .500.

The Skinny

NE injuries: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (out, ankle), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (out, ankle), TE Henry (out, knee), LB Jahlani Tavai (questionable, ankle)
DEN injuries: TE Greg Dulcich (IR-R, foot)

NE DFS targets: Ezekiel Elliott (DEN 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed)
DEN DFS targets: Marvin Mims (NE 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

NE DFS fades: none
DEN DFS fades: Williams (NE first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed), Sutton (NE second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: NE is 29th in third-down conversions at 31.9 percent; DEN is second in third-down defense at 33.3 percent

Weather notes: temperature in the high 20s, 10-15 mph wind, 10-30 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Elliott picks up 80 yards and a TD. Zappe throws for under 200 yards with two INTs, including a pick-six by Patrick Surtain. Williams grinds out 60 yards. Wilson throws for 210 yards and two scores, finding Jerry Jeudy and Lil'Jordan Humphrey. Broncos 24-13

THURSDAY NIGHT

New Orleans (+4) at L.A. Rams, o/u 44.5
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The NFC South is enough of a mess that the Saints don't even need to win this one to win the division, provided they take care of business in their final two games against the Bucs and Falcons. (The chaos gremlin in me is rooting for a three-way tie at 8-9, which is still on the table.) Derek Carr's done yeoman's work the last couple weeks with a banged-up receiving corps, throwing five TDs and completing 75.9 percent of his passes but with just a 6.2 YPA. Assuming Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are fully healthy again, Carr could feel a little more confident stretching the field again. Alvin Kamara remains the engine of the offense though, topping 100 scrimmage yards in three of the last four games to get him to 1,000 for the seventh straight season despite missing the first three games of 2023. He should get to 10,000 for his career Thursday – he's 36 yards short – and he's second only to Christian McCaffrey since the duo entered the league in 2017. Whether New Orleans sees any postseason action will likely come down to whether the defense can figure out how to slow down a competent opponent, though. The unit's overall numbers are fine, but the Saints have beaten up on the scrubs, allowing a total of 12 points in three games against the Giants, Panthers and Patriots, while sagging badly against the likes of the Lions and Jaguars. Even a Vikings team that was missing both Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson hung 27 points on them. It's a pattern that suggests they'll get crushed at home by whichever NFC East powerhouse gets stuck with a wild card, assuming the Saints even manage to win their division.

The Rams are currently nestled into the seventh seed in the NFC, and they've been one of the best teams in the league since their bye, going 4-1 with the only loss coming in overtime in Baltimore. Matthew Stafford has a slick 12:1 TD:INT over the last four, a stretch that coincides with the return of Kyren Williams to the backfield. The second-year back has erupted for a Todd Gurley-esque 584 scrimmage yards and four TDs during that time, and it's no wonder the offense has averaged 33 points a game since Williams came off IR. The defense has also been sneaky good during their surge, holding each opponent they've beaten to 20 points or less, although as with the Saints, the quality of the opposition was a factor. Surprisingly, Aaron Donald has only half a sack in those five games, but he still opens things up for his teammates just by drawing so much attention – rookie DT Kobie Turner, for instance, has 3.5 sacks during that stretch, while Ernest Jones has been an IDP monster with 2.5 sacks among his 50 tackles. I'm not sure there's really enough talent on that side of the ball for the Rams to be a true postseason threat, but they are giving off the vibe of a team that's heating up at exactly the right time to be dangerous.

The Skinny

NO injuries: WR Michael Thomas (IR, knee)
LAR injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

NO DFS targets: Juwan Johnson (LAR 27th in DVOA vs. TE)
LAR DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: NO is 21st in red-zone conversions at 52.0 percent (26-for-50); LAR are 12th in red-zone defense at 52.4 percent (22-for-42)

The Scoop: Kamara picks up 80 combined yards. Carr throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Olave and Johnson. Williams racks up 110 scrimmage yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 280 yards and two scores, finding Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, while Turner falls on a fumble for another touchdown. Rams 28-23

SATURDAY

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (+2), o/u 38 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Ravens have put some distance between themselves and the rest of the AFC North, but the Bengals and Steelers are still in the thick of the wild-card chase. Cincy's injury issues didn't end with Joe Burrow, though, and Ja'Marr Chase is set to miss his first game of the season after suffering a shoulder injury last week. It's a huge blow to a passing game that remarkably hadn't missed a beat with Jake Browning under center, and in fact the Bengals had their best run of the season offensively with the 27-year-old backup in charge, averaging 31.7 points and 418 yards during their current three-game win streak. Browning did lose to Pittsburgh in his first start right before the win streak, but his confidence has soared since then. The key could be Joe Mixon's resurgence, though. The RB has four rushing TDs in the last three games along with 303 scrimmage yards, a far cry from the meager 60 yards he cobbled together against the Steelers in Week 12. If Mixon can keep rolling, the Bengals can probably get away without having Chase in the lineup for a week.

If the Steelers do end up missing the playoffs, Kenny Pickett's injury can probably be the scapegoat. Shocking nobody, Mitch Trubisky could barely even manage being mediocre in Pickett's place, and a three-game losing streak has left Pittsburgh on the outside of the wild-card picture at 7-7. With a nasty closing schedule ahead that also includes trips to Seattle and Baltimore, coach Mike Tomlin has broken the glass in case of emergency and will give Mason Rudolph and his career 80.8 QB rating the start for this one. The 28-year-old hasn't seen regular action since 2019 but at least he didn't lose his last NFL start – he "led" the Steelers to a 16-16 tie against the Lions in Week 10 of the 2021 campaign, and Rudolph needed 50 pass attempts just to produce 242 passing yards and one TD. This offense isn't bereft of talent, but Pittsburgh hasn't scored more than 18 points in a game since Week 10 and hasn't scored more than 26 points all year, the worst high-water mark in the league. With the banged-up defense running out of steam – special-teams guy Miles Killebrew is basically the only safety left standing after Damontae Kazee got himself suspended with a vicious hit on Michael Pittman that would have seemed a little excessive in the '80s – even Tomlin's magic may not be enough to save the season.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: WR Chase (out, shoulder)
PIT injuries: QB Pickett (out, ankle), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (out, knee)

CIN DFS targets: Tyler Boyd (PIT 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
PIT DFS targets: Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren (CIN 29th in rushing DVOA, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPC allowed), George Pickens (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Pat Freiermuth (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

CIN DFS fades: Tee Higgins (PIT third in DVOA vs. WR1), Tanner Hudson (PIT second in DVOA vs. TE)
PIT DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 PIT, average score 21-20 PIT, average margin of victory 12 points. The road team has won four of the last five meetings in this rivalry 
Key stat: PIT is 28th in red-zone conversions at 46.7 percent (14-for-30); CIN is 11th in red-zone defense at 51.9 percent (28-for-54)

Weather notes: 35-45 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mixon gains 90 combined yards and a TD. Browning throws for 240 yards and two scores, one each to Boyd and Higgins. Harris leads the PIT backfield with 60 yards, while Warren adds 40. Rudolph throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice but does find Freiermuth for a touchdown. Bengals 21-13

Buffalo at L.A. Chargers (+11.5), o/u 42.5 – Saturday, 8 p.m. EST

The Bills finally put together a complete game last week, and they got through their gauntlet of Super Bowl contenders having gone 2-1, with the loss coming in OT in Philadelphia. Despite that, they're two games back of the Dolphins in the AFC East with three to play, and they aren't even keeping a wild-card spot warm right now despite an 8-6 record. Even if they win out – no sure thing with a Week 18 trip to Miami looming – Buffalo's going to need help to make the postseason. James Cook's emergence has been the main thing keeping the Bills afloat, and the second-year back is on the cusp of his first 1,000-yard rushing campaign after trampling the Cowboys for 179 yards last week. In four games since Ken Dorsey got the boot as OC, with Joe Brady taking over play-calling, Cook has dashed for 564 scrimmage yards and four TDs, with three of them coming through the air. The added benefit of a strong ground game – I'm including Josh Allen and his career-high 11 rushing touchdowns on the year in that, of course – has been that the injury-plagued defense has been kept off the field a little more, and the Bills have held three of four opponents during Cook's surge to 17 points or less. It's a formula that could make them very dangerous if they keep playing past the first week of January, and some of those injured defenders can get back in the lineup.

My big question regarding the Chargers' interim coach is this: is it pronounced Giff Smith, or Jiff Smith? Last Thursday's embarrassing rout at the hands of a Raiders team led by a rookie quarterback who is very much not C.J. Stroud was the final straw for Brandon Staley's tenure with the Bolts, but it's absolutely baffling from the outside that it took that long to cut Staley loose. The locker room had given up on him months ago, and since their Week 5 bye, the only teams the Chargers have beaten have been the Bears (with Tyson Bagent under center), the Jets and the Patriots. It's almost like having Justin Herbert at quarterback was hiding a lot of problems with the team that suddenly got exposed with Easton Stick under center instead. Hopefully the new guy doesn't also think Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller have more to offer in the backfield than Austin Ekeler, but I guess we'll see. Stick, and Jshua Palmer, padded their numbers in garbage time last week, but if the backup QB struggles in this one, OC Kellen Moore could turn to Will Grier next week instead, because why not. With Keenan Allen potentially set to miss a second straight game, Stick will have his work cut out for him.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: RB Cook (questionable, illness), TE Dalton Kincaid (questionable, shoulder), EDGE A.J. Epenesa (questionable, ribs), EDGE Leonard Floyd (questionable, wrist)
LAC injuries: WR Allen (questionable, heel), EDGE Joey Bosa (IR, foot)

BUF DFS targets: JAllen (LAC 30th in net passing yards per game allowed, 27th in passing TDs allowed), Cook (LAC (28th in rushing DVOA, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Stefon Diggs (LAC 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Bills DST (t-3rd in takeaways, fifth in sacks)
LAC DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none
LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF is third in red-zone conversions at 67.3 percent (35-for-52); LAC are 17th in red-zone defense at 55.6 percent (25-for-45)

The Scoop: Cook piles up 150 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Allen throws for 350 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Diggs (who tops 100 yards) and Dawson Knox while also running in a TD of his own. Ekeler puts together 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Stick throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Quentin Johnston but gets picked off twice and loses two fumbles. Bills 38-17

Last week's record: 10-6, 8-6-2 ATS, 11-5 o/u
2023 record: 131-93, 107-108-9 ATS, 124-97-3 o/u