NFL Game Previews: Cowboys-Chargers Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Dallas at L.A. Chargers (+2), o/u 50.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

I believe that was what they call a reality check. The Cowboys got demolished by the 49ers last week, looking as outclassed by the NFC West leaders as the Jets, Giants and Pats have looked against Dallas this season. Their roller-coaster start to the year has, frankly, been really weird, as they've yet to play a really competitive game. Maybe this week? The Cowboys' closest result so far has been that 28-16 no-show in Arizona. Aside from that, nothing closer than a 20-point margin. Backup quarterback Cooper Rush has seen garbage-time snaps three times already in 2023, with the flip side of that being poor numbers from Dak Prescott that have a lot of fantasy GMs freaking out a bit. The tradeoff for Mike McCarthy's poorly named Texas Coast Offense (look guys, I get that 'Gulf Coast Offense' already got tossed around back in the early Sean Payton-Drew Brees days in New Orleans, but you can't just ignore geography) was always going to be improved efficiency in exchange for explosiveness, and Prescott's actually right on course there – his 69.4 percent completion rate is a career high, and until last week he'd only thrown one INT. Once the games get more competitive and he actually has an excuse to attack downfield when the defense isn't expecting him to, his production will pick up. At least, that's what Brandin Cooks has been telling himself.

The Chargers have been the complete opposite. All four of their games so far have been decided by a single score, and after dropping their first two contests, they've bounced back with wins over the Vikings and Raiders. Coming out of their bye, the Bolts will get Austin Ekeler back, but the offense has hardly been hurting without him, scoring at least 24 points in every game. Justin Herbert could use one of his other receiving options to step up though in the wake of Mike Williams' season-ending injury, and after seeing minimal volume over the first month, it could be time for first-round pick Quentin Johnston's breakout against a secondary still trying to adjust to the loss to Trevon Diggs. More consistent play from the Chargers' defense would be nice, too. While the unit has done well generating splash plays, Vegas is the only team it's managed to hold below 24 points or 340 yards of offense.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: LB Leighton Vander Esch (out, neck)
LAC injuries: EDGE Joey Bosa (questionable, hamstring)

DAL DFS targets: Prescott $6,200 DK / $7,000 FD (LAC 32nd in net passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed)
LAC DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: Jake Ferguson $3,900 DK / $5,100 FD (LAC third in DVOA vs. TE)
LAC DFS fades: Joshua Palmer $4,700 DK / $6,200 FD (DAL fourth in DVOA vs. WR2), Johnston $3,900 DK / $5,300 FD (DAL second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: DAL is 28th in red-zone conversions at 36.8 percent (7-for-19); LAC are t-10th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent (9-for-18)

The Scoop: Tony Pollard rings up 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Prescott throws for 260 yards and two scores, hitting Cooks and CeeDee Lamb. Ekeler responds with 110 combined yards and a TD. Herbert throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Johnston, Donald Parham and Keenan Allen (who tops 100 yards). Chargers 31-27

SUNDAY MORNING

Baltimore vs. Tennessee (+4) at London, o/u 41
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EDT

I should have known better than to think a team might actually take control of the AFC North. Last week's stunning late collapse against the Steelers left the Ravens at 3-2 (and now a tiebreaker behind Pittsburgh for the division lead) and probably made for a long flight to Blighty. Lamar Jackson failed to produce a score last week after racking up eight TDs (four through the air, four on the ground) over the prior three games, and he was also held below a 60 percent completion rate for the first time in 2023. The yardage still hasn't been there, but so far the switch at OC from Greg Roman to Todd Monken seems to be working out for the quarterback. Maybe a healthier wideout corps will allow things to fully click.

The AFC South is as much a jumble as the North through five weeks, with all four teams at either 3-2 or 2-3. The Titans are in the latter pair, as their season has been a nearly perfectly balanced see-saw with a road loss following by an equivalent home win. That pattern could bode well for Tennessee here, as it dropped a 23-16 decision in Indianapolis last week, but this isn't really a home game, and the numbers suggest Baltimore has been the superior squad. Derrick Henry's averaging less than four yards a carry, something he's never done over a season in his career, and perhaps as a result Tyjae Spears has seen more work than a typical caddie for King Henry and looked good. The situation is a bit reminiscent of the one in Dallas a couple years ago, when Ezekiel Elliott was the entrenched starter being routinely out-performed on an efficiency basis by Tony Pollard, but I'm not quite ready to name Spears as the next big backfield thing based on 41 NFL touches. The Titans still lack anything resembling a modern passing game, and Ryan Tannehill's 2:5 TD:INT through five games is brutal. Neither of those touchdowns went to DeAndre Hopkins, who might be regretting his decision in free agency right about now.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: WR Odell Beckham (questionable, ankle)
TEN injuries: WR Treylon Burks (questionable, knee), DE Jeffery Simmons (questionable, shoulder), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (questionable, neck)

BAL DFS targets: Justice Hill $4,800 DK / $5,700 FD (TEN 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), Zay Flowers $5,600 DK / $6,000 FD (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
TEN DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: none
TEN DFS fades: Tannehill $4,900 DK / $6,600 FD (BAL fourth in passing DVOA, third in net passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, t-3rd in passing TDs allowed)

Key stat: TEN is t-29th in red-zone conversions at 35.3 percent (6-for-17); BAL is first in red-zone defense at 25.0 percent (3-for-12)

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hill leads the BAL backfield with 70 combined yards and a receiving score. Jackson throws for 230 yards and a second touchdown to Flowers while running in a TD of his own. Henry rumbles for 60 yards. Tannehill throws for less than 200 yards and finds Hopkins for his first Titans TD but also gets picked off twice. Ravens 24-16

EARLY SUNDAY

Washington (+2.5) at Atlanta, o/u 42 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Remember when the Commanders were 2-0 and feeling frisky? Good times. After getting rocked by Buffalo and then coming up just short of an upset against Philly, Washington decided to no-show last Thursday night's game against the Bears, giving up more points and total yards to Justin Fields than they had to Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts – and the game against Hurts went to OT. It was a total team flop by the Commanders, as Sam Howell led the team in rushing and Logan Thomas led the team in receiving. I'm sure if I checked, Eric Bieniemy had games during his time in Kansas City when Patrick Mahomes was his leading rusher and Travis Kelce his leading receiver and they won, but, well, that's Mahomes and Kelce, not Howell and Thomas. Wait. Thomas... Howell... there's a Red Dawn joke here somewhere, I'm sure of it. Why didn't I think of this in Week 2 when the Commanders were in Denver? What a missed opportunity. Anyway, Howell's now been sacked a league-leading 29 times (one more than Daniel Jones), and you can't blame injuries along the offensive line in this case. They've given him decent time in the pocket, he's just holding onto the ball too long. Fortunately, this week they're facing a team tied for last in the NFL in sacks with five, although given that Atlanta is fifth in pressure rate at 28.2 percent, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the Falcons doubled their season total of five.

Atlanta's 3-2 to begin the year, and the formula has been pretty simple – they win when they score at least 21 points, and they lose when they score less than that. Of course, they scored 13 total points in the two losses, so that may not be exactly where the line is drawn. Desmond Ridder's coming off a career-best performance against the Texans, throwing for 329 yards with a 75.7 percent completion rate and 8.9 YPA, but he still only managed one TD even with all that yardage, and it went to Bijan Robinson. I will again express my confusion as to why the franchise used high draft picks on Kyle Pitts and Drake London if they weren't going to be featuring them in the offense, but at least their target volume is ticking up – Pitts saw double-digit looks last week for the first time since Week 5 of his rookie campaign, while London is averaging 7.5 targets over the last four weeks. The defense has been solid and hasn't given up more than 358 total yards or 24 points in a game this season, although the splash plays haven't been there in general – since grabbing three takeaways against Carolina in the season opener, Atlanta has a minus-6 turnover differential (seven giveaways, one takeaway).

The Skinny

WAS injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
ATL injuries: TE Jonnu Smith (questionable, ankle)

WAS DFS targets: none
ATL DFS targets: London $4,800 DK / $6,400 FD (WAS 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), KhaDarel Hodge $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

WAS DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: none

Key stat: ATL is 19th in red-zone conversions at 53.3 percent (8-for-15); WAS is sixth in red-zone defense at 44.4 percent (8-for-18)

The Scoop: Brian Robinson churns out 60 yards. Howell throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson. Bijan gains 80 combined yards and a score. Ridder throws for under 200 yards and finds London for a touchdown but also tosses a pick-six to Cody Barton that proves to be the difference. Commanders 21-17

Minnesota at Chicago (+2.5), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Who didn't see this coming? After last year's ridiculous 11-0 record in one-score games, the Vikings are 1-4 to begin 2023 with all five games being one-score affairs, and the one win came against the only winless team left in the league. Kirk Cousins has done his best, tossing multiple TDs in five straight games and 13 in total, and he's on pace for the first 5,000-yard campaign of his career. That production could be about to come crashing down though, as Justin Jefferson picked up a hamstring injury last week that's landed him on IR. There's still some talent on the offense, especially if hero to dog lovers everywhere Jordan Addison seizes the opport... oh, he's banged up too. Huh. N'Keal Harry revenge game time, anyone? (Don't feel bad, I also forgot he played for the Bears last year.)

Chicago's offense has suddenly erupted for 68 points over the last two games, as Justin Fields plays for his job and the rest of the team plays with the freedom of knowing they might get Caleb Williams even if they don't tank because they hold the Panthers' first-round pick in 2024. Fields has fired four TD passes in back-to-back games while averaging over 300 yards a game and posting YPAs of 9.6 and 9.7, and while sure, one of those games was against the Broncos, the Commanders in theory have a decent enough defense. DJ Moore's been on the other end of half of those touchdowns, and maybe all Fields needed was a receiver he trusted enough to just let it fly. He'll probably need to keep slinging it this week, as the backfield's a mess. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson are both hurt, and RB duties could fall to D'Onta Foreman (a healthy scratch since Week 1) and Darryton Evans (stuck on the Miami practice squad all year) in this one. If you need a deep-league dart throw, don't forget about Evans – he was a third-round pick of the Titans a few years ago but couldn't stay healthy, and the Dolphins' interest in him should tell you everything to need to know about his speed back when he was drafted.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: WR Jefferson (IR, hamstring), WR Addison (questionable, ankle)
CHI injuries: RB Herbert (doubtful, ankle), RB Johnson (questionable, concussion), RB Travis Homer (questionable, hamstring), TE Cole Kmet (questionable, hamstring), S Eddie Jackson (questionable, foot)

MIN DFS targets: Cousins $7,100 DK / $8,000 FD (CHI 31st in passing DVOA, 31st in net passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed, 31st in passing TDs allowed), Alexander Mattison $5,600 DK / $6,900 FD (CHI 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)
CHI DFS targets: Darnell Mooney $3,700 DK / $5,800 FD (MIN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

MIN DFS fades: none
CHI DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score 21-19 MIN, average margin of victory nine points. MIN has won four straight meetings and five of the last six, including three straight at Soldier Field
Key stat: MIN is 20th in third-down conversions at 38.3 percent; CHI is 32nd in third-down defense at 57.4 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, 15-20 mph wind, 40-45 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mattison gains 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD. Cousins throws for 250 yards and a second touchdown to T.J. Hockenson. Foreman leads the CHI backfield with 80 yards and a score. Fields throws for 220 yards and two TDs, finding Mooney and Moore. Bears 24-20

Seattle (+3) at Cincinnati, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Seahawks come out of their bye having won three straight games, although the time off didn't do much to clear away the questionables on their early-week injury report. Kenneth Walker has led the charge with five rushing TDs in the three wins, although it could be argued rookie Zach Charbonnet has been then more impressive runner during that stretch – Charbonnet's 5.2 yards per carry during the win streak is a full yard higher than Walker's. The defense remains a sore spot though, even if a game against the hapless Giants made their numbers on the season look more palatable. Against anyone else, Seattle's allowing nearly 30 points a game and over 400 yards of offense, and that "anyone else" includes Carolina so it's not like they've faced a schedule full of juggernauts.

Last week I wondered what the Bengals had done to get tabbed as road favorites, even against the Cardinals. Apparently the answer was, "wait for Joe Burrow's calf to feel better." While he's still not 100 percent, the $275 million quarterback posted Burrow-like numbers in the win, and Cincy's season may not be a write-off quite yet. The team's Week 7 bye comes in the nick of time, too – the Bengals get the Niners and Bills right after it. Ja'Marr Chase was especially happy to see Burrow feeling frisky again, but Tee Higgins may have to wait until after the bye to get right. With the offense humming again, the defense was able to catch its breath and return to its 2022 form as well, and even accounting for the quality of the opposition, Cincy looked like a contender again last week. Seattle's a step up in competition though, and in more ways than one – the Cards are second last in pressure rate this season, but the 'Hawks have an actual pass rush. If they can force Burrow off his spot, his limitations could be a factor again.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: WR DK Metcalf (questionable, ribs), LB Jordyn Brooks (questionable, knee), S Jamal Adams (questionable, concussion)
CIN injuries: WR Higgins (questionable, ribs)

SEA DFS targets: none
CIN DFS targets: Irv Smith $3,000 DK / $4,500 FD (SEA 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

SEA DFS fades: Jaxon Smith-Njigba $3,600 DK / $4,800 FD (CIN fifth in DVOA vs. WR3)
CIN DFS fades: Joe Mixon $6,300 DK / $7,000 FD (SEA second in rushing DVOA, sixth in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed), Bengals DST $2,900 DK / $4,200 FD (SEA first in giveaways, t-4th in sacks allowed)

Key stat: CIN is t-24th in red-zone conversions at 45.5 percent (5-for-11); SEA is 32nd in red-zone defense at 87.5 percent (7-for-8), but second in trips to the red zone allowed (only CLE has given up fewer at six) 

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, 15-20 mph wind, 20-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Walker piles up 80 yards and a score, while Charbonnet adds 60 yards. Geno Smith throws for 260 yards and three touchdowns, two to Noah Fant and one to Tyler Lockett. Mixon manages 60 yards. Burrow throws for 240 yards and three TDs, two to Chase (who tops 100 yards) and one to Tyler Boyd, but it's not enough. Seahawks 28-24

San Francisco at Cleveland (+5.5), o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

No undue disrespect intended to the McDaniels Bowl in Vegas or the Monday nighter between two talented teams who always seem to find entertaining ways to lose, but this is the must-watch game of the week. Last week's game against the Cowboys looked like it might be the Niners' first real test of the season, but instead it wasn't even a speed bump as San Francisco dominated on both sides of the ball. The Eagles are also undefeated, but the 49ers just look to be on a different level from everybody else. Putting aside all the other stars and studs on the roster, let's just look at Brock Purdy's numbers for a second. He's 10-0 as a starter in the regular season. He has yet to throw an interception this season, and hasn't thrown one in 211 straight attempts, the second-longest streak in franchise history (somewhat shocking bit of trivia that makes Kyle Shanahan look that much better – Alex Smith holds the record at 317, not Steve Young or Joe Montana.) Oh, and Purdy's tossed a TD to George Kittle a mere 10 times in those 10 starts, a ratio that makes Mahomes and Kelce look like amateurs.

On the hand, maybe this is the Niners' first real test of the year, at least Purdy's side of the ball. The Browns' defense was a beast to begin the season, ranking first in yards per play allowed and first downs allowed (by an absurd amount – Cleveland's only given up 37, and second-place Tampa Bay has allowed 75, also in only four games. The best any team with five games has managed is New Orleans, with 80). Offenses have only put points on the board, of any kind, in 17.6 percent of their drives against Myles Garrett and company. Yes, the Browns have benefited from some good scheduling luck, like facing a wounded Joe Burrow, and three of their four games have been at home in autumn weather, but guess what kind of conditions this game's going to happen in? If anyone has a chance to slow down the Niners and keep Christian McCaffrey out of the end zone for the first time in nearly a year (late November 2022, Week 12 to be precise), it's these guys. The question is, though... what then? Nick Chubb's out for the year, and Deshaun Watson's been disinclined to play through a shoulder injury. I can't imagine the prospect of facing Nick Bosa is going to encourage him to suit up. Even if the defense does its job, the Browns still need to get some points from somewhere, and PJ Walker doesn't seem like the guy to do it.

The Skinny

SF injuries: RB Elijah Mitchell (questionable, knee)
CLE injuries: QB Watson (questionable, shoulder), RB Jerome Ford (questionable, knee), TE David Njoku (questionable, hand), EDGE Garrett (questionable, foot)

SF DFS targets: none
CLE DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: Purdy $5,600 DK / $7,200 FD (CLE first in passing DVOA, first in net passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed, t-1st in passing TDs allowed), McCaffrey $9,500 DK / $10,300 FD (CLE third in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, second in YPC allowed), Brandon Aiyuk $6,200 DK / $7,700 FD (CLE first in DVOA vs. WR2)
CLE DFS fades: Elijah Moore $4,300 DK / $5,600 FD (SF second in DVOA vs. WR2), Njoku $3,700 DK / $5,000 FD (SF second in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: SF is fourth in red-zone conversions at 69.6 percent (16-for-23), and first in trips to the red zone; CLE is t-25th in red-zone defense at 66.7 percent (4-for-6), but first in trips allowed

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, 15-20 mph wind, 60-70 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: McCaffrey zips for 120 combined yards and a score. Purdy throws for 220 yards and two TDs, hitting Kittle and Deebo Samuel. Ford grinds out 60 yards and a touchdown. Walker starts and throws for under 200 yards with a pick-six to Talanoa Hufanga. 49ers 31-10

New Orleans at Houston (+1.5), o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Saints are only 3-2, and one of the losses came against the Bucs which could matter a great deal later in the season, but they still look like the class of the NFC South if they can get their act together on offense. The defense has been outstanding in its first year under DC Joe Woods, ranking in the top five in all sorts of categories, although there's a solid argument to be made that the unit's numbers are a product of a creampuff schedule. Here's the list of starting QBs that New Orleans has faced so far: Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield and Mac Jones. That's not exactly a group that's going to strike fear into the hearts of secondaries. Derek Carr's been playing through a shoulder injury, and it's turned him into Checkdown Charlie – after amassing eight completions of 20 or more yards and four of 40-plus in his first two games as a Saint, he's managed five and zero in three games since suffering an AC joint sprain. That's been fine for Alvin Kamara though, who's seen 17 targets in two games since returning from his suspension. The running back's also been productive on the ground, and while Chris Olave's very talented, this team still works better when things are flowing through Kamara out of the backfield to set up the downfield shots, at least when Carr's capable of attempting them.

In theory, C.J. Stroud belongs on that list above, but he's looked nothing like a green rookie to begin his career, posting a 7:0 TD:INT through his first five NFL games with a 7.9 YPA. That's only been good enough for a 2-3 record though, as the defense has remained a weak spot. It's one thing to give up over 400 yards of offense to Trevor Lawrence, but quite another to do it against Desmond Ridder. The running game has also given Stroud no help – while the young QB has been able to handle working behind an undermanned offensive line, Dameon Pierce has seen his YPC plummet to 2.9 this season, and his longest run has gone for only 15 yards. The Texans are already better than expected just based on Stroud's performance, but they might have to be content just playing occasional spoiler for playoff-caliber teams until more pieces start to fall in place around him.

The Skinny

NO injuries: WR Olave (questionable, toe), TE Juwan Johnson (questionable, calf), EDGE Cameron Jordan (questionable, back)
HOU injuries: WR Robert Woods (questionable, ribs), WR Tank Dell (questionable, concussion), WR Noah Brown (IR-R, groin)

NO DFS targets: Kamara $6,800 DK / $7,500 FD (HOU t-29th in rushing TDs allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
HOU DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: Nico Collins $5,600 DK / $6,800 FD (NO third in DVOA vs. WR1, first in DVOA vs. deep throws)

Key stat: NO 26th in red-zone conversion s at 43.8 percent (7-for-16); HOU 21st in red-zone defense at 58.8 percent (10-for-17)

The Scoop: Kamara erupts for 110 yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Carr throws for under 200 yards. Pierce ekes out 40 yards. Stroud throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Collins, John Metchie and Brown. Texans 24-17

Indianapolis (+4.5) at Jacksonville, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Colts continue to dance on the head of the pin that is the AFC South at 3-2, although the Jags hold the tiebreaker by virtue of their Week 1 win. That was against a Colts team with Deon Jackson starting in the backfield and Anthony Richardson under center, though; now they have to face a potential revenge game from Gardner Minshew, as well as the two-headed ground monster that is Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. Taylor made his season debut last week and also got that contract extension he's been looking for, but Moss made it clear he wasn't slipping into a backup role quietly, thundering for 165 yards and two TDs against what is usually a stout Titans run defense. This is still JT's backfield once he's fully up to game speed, but Moss could still see enough volume to be useful in deeper fantasy formats as Indy fully commits to a run-based offense regardless of who's under center. (Hmm, wonder if they'll give Greg Roman a call in the offseason...)

Jacksonville cemented the status of London as their second home, winning both games across the pond after last week's upset win over Buffalo. Trevor Lawrence still hasn't gotten going, managing only a 3:1 TD:INT over the last four games, but better days should be ahead -- especially if Travis Etienne keeps popping. The third-year back also tore up a tough defense last week with 136 rushing yards and two touchdowns, and he's on pace for over 1,800 scrimmage yards in 2023. The Jaguars remain a little bit less than the sum of their parts, but a win here would give them the first season sweep in this rivalry by either team since 2017, when the Jags won both games by a combined score of 57-10 during the team's one winning season in the Blake Bortles Era.

The Skinny

IND injuries: QB Richardson (IR, shoulder)
JAC injuries: WR Zay Jones (questionable, knee), LB Devin Lloyd (questionable, thumb)

IND DFS targets: none
JAC DFS targets: Christian Kirk $5,400 DK / $6,600 FD (IND 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

IND DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 JAC, average score 23-20 JAC, average margin of victory 12 points. JAC has won eight straight meetings at EverBank Stadium, with IND's last road victory in the rivalry coming in Week 3 of 2014
Key stat: JAC is 21st in third-down conversions at 37.7 percent; IND is 14th in third-down defense at 39.2 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the high 70s, 10-15 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Taylor leads the IND backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Moss adds 50 yards. Minshew throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting Michael Pittman and Josh Downs for the game-winning TD. Etienne puts together 80 combined yards. Lawrence throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Calvin Ridley (who tops 100 yards) and Kirk. Colts 24-23

Carolina (+13.5) at Miami, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

This might seem like an obvious statement, but very little has gone right for the league's only remaining winless team. It's not just that they're 0-5; it's the fact that the Panthers have rarely been competitive. Only two of the losses have been by a single score, and one of them barely at eight points, and the list of opponents to steamroll them includes powerhouses like the Falcons and Seahawks. It's way too early to say they made a mistake with the first overall pick, but while C.J. Stroud has played like a seasoned campaigner, Bryce Young has looked like a deer in headlights at times, stumbling to a 5:4 TD:INT and 5.2 YPA to kick off his NFL career. The plan to surround Young with a safety net of veteran skill players has worked in the sense that Adam Thielen could bring back some draft capital before the trade deadline, but it hasn't helped get a lot of points on the board – Carolina's only topped 17 points twice so far. Meanwhile, the defense hasn't been able to hold anyone below 20, and has given up at least 130 rushing yards every single week. The good news is that the Panthers only have one more game until their bye. All they have to do is get through the... oh. Oh no.

The fact that 31 points and 524 yards of offense last week against the Giants was probably considered a bit of a disappointment by some folks indicates how quickly, and how radically, Mike McDaniel has re-written the expectations for the Dolphins this season. We haven't seen an offense like this since the heyday of the Peyton Manning Broncos, if not Kurt Warner's Greatest Show on Turf Rams. This is a unit that can find Tyreek Hill for a 50-yard gain seemingly at will, but you can't just play the safeties back and defend deep because a) it might not matter against Tyreek, and b) whoever's in the backfield will just crank out 20-plus yard gains instead. The injury to De'Von Achane might slow Miami down a little, but he only saw five offensive snaps the first two weeks and the Dolphins still piled up 60 points, so I think they can survive his loss for a month or so. The defense has been hit or miss, but it really has to miss (like it did against the Bills) to dig a hole so big the offense can't scamper out of it. Against this particular oppon ent, that seems somewhat unlikely.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: RB Miles Sanders (questionable, shoulder), EDGE Brian Burns (questionable, ankle)
MIA injuries: RB Achane (IR, knee), RB Jeff Wilson (IR-R, ribs)

CAR DFS targets: Sanders $5,000 DK / $5,900 FD (MIA 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
MIA DFS targets: Raheem Mostert $6,400 DK / $8,500 FD (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA, 28th in YPC allowed, t-31st in rushing TDs allowed)

CAR DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: Braxton Berrios $3,400 DK / $4,900 FD (CAR fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: MIA is first in red-zone conversions at 76.2 percent (16-for-21), and third in trips to the red zone; CAR is 28th in red-zone defense at 68.4 percent, and t-28th in trips allowed

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 80s, 10-15 mph wind, 5-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chuba Hubbard leads the CAR backfield with 50 yards and a score. Young throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Thielen but gets picked off twice, one of which Jevon Holland returns to the house. Mostert erupts for 150 yards and two TDs. Tua Tagovailoa throws for 360 yards and four scores, three to Tyreek (who tops 100 yards and then some) and one to Durham Smythe. Dolphins 49-17

LATE SUNDAY

New England (+3) at Las Vegas, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

I haven't dug into the archives to see if last week's loss to the Saints was the worst ever for the Patriots in the Belichick Era, but it certainly felt like it. Nothing's working right now, on either side of the ball, and the Pats have been out-scored 72-3 over the last two weeks. Mac Jones has been benched in each of those games, but he's still the best QB option on the roster. The running game's going nowhere. One of the few bright spots on defense, first-round corner Christian Gonzalez, just landed on IR. I hate to say it, and it's always been folly to write off New England, but at 1-4 this team might just find itself in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. Even weirder to say, if they do somehow land the top pick in 2024, it might not even be Belichick who reaps the benefits.

I wonder if Broncos fans are looking back at Josh McDaniels' 28-game tenure with Denver in 2009-10 with a bit of nostalgia these days. His first 22 games with Vegas have arguably been worse (.364 winning percentage vs a .393 mark with the Broncos) but after escaping last Monday's game with a win, the Raiders are 2-3 and looking more erratic than outright bad. Josh Jacobs is inching closer to last year's form, collecting 308 scrimmage yards and two TDs over that last three games, but the passing game remains sketchy – Jimmy Garoppolo has been picked off at least once in each of his four starts with a 6:7 TD:INT on the season, and Davante Adams is playing through a shoulder injury that really seemed to hamper him in Week 5. Vegas has yet to score more than 18 points in a game in 2023, so kudos to Maxx Crosby and the defense for even getting the two wins. The unit's held three straight opponents to 333 yards or under, a mark New England's only reached twice in five games, so that seems like a streak that'll probably continue. The narrative here is going to be McDaniels vs Belichick, student vs master, but maybe it should be about which guy's reputation owes more to Tom Brady.

The Skinny

NE injuries: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (questionable, concussion), WR Demario Douglas (questionable, concussion), WR Tyquan Thornton (IR-R, shoulder), EDGE Matthew Judon (out, biceps), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, foot)
LV injuries: WR Adams (questionable, shoulder)

NE DFS targets: none
LV DFS targets: Hunter Renfrow $3,600 DK / $5,300 FD (NE 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

NE DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: Adams $8,100 DK / $8,300 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: NE 28th in third-down conversions at 32.7 percent; LV 22nd in third-down defense at 41.5 percent

The Scoop: Rhamondre Stevenson grinds out 40 yards. Jones throws for under 200 yards and a score to Hunter Henry. Jacobs picks up 60 yards. Garoppolo throws for 230 yards and a score to Renfrow. Raiders 16-10

Detroit at Tampa Bay (+3), o/u 44 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Since it's spooky season, let's talk about the spine-tingling tale of two men trapped in the body of one quarterback. At home, Jared Goff is a rampaging My. Hyde who strikes terror into secondaries. Away from home? He's a milquetoast Dr. Jekyll. That hasn't stopped the Lions from going 2-0 on the road to begin 2023, but it's perhaps a sign of how important home-field advantage in the playoffs is going to be for the team. Am I getting ahead of myself? Maybe, but they're already two games clear of the Packers in the NFC North with the early tie-breaker edge, and it's hard to imagine the Vikings or Bears making much of a charge. Goff had no issues last week against the Panthers without Amon-Ra St. Brown to throw to, but the receiver has still scored a TD or topped 100 yards in every game he's played in 2023, while Sam LaPorta has quickly emerged as the cream of what might end up being an all-timer crop of rookie tight ends. Oh, and David Montgomery's done better in the Jamaal Williams role out of the backfield than Jamaal Williams did last year. If the Lions had won the OT coin toss in Week 2, they very likely would be 5-0, and getting talked about in the same breath as at least the Eagles (maybe not the Niners... is there a tier above undefeated?) in the NFC.

The Bucs aren't mentioned among the conference elite, but they're still a tidy 3-1 and coming out of their bye on top of the NFC South. That one loss was to Philly, which is certainly excusable, and they put a beating on the Saints in New Orleans in Week 4. Tampa Bay still just seems kinda good at best, though. The team has no running game to speak of, and while Baker Mayfield is on track for a career-best campaign so far, that's still only translated into a 7.1 YPA and barely a 30-TD pace. It's Todd Bowles' defense that's been leading the way, producing 10 takeaways in four games and holding their non-Eagles opponents to 17 points or less. Really, the Bucs seem like the conference gate-keepers -- the team you have to beat to prove you're a legit contender, rather than legit contenders themselves – but downing the Lions might go a long way toward changing that narrative.

The Skinny

DET injuries: RB Jahmyr Gibbs (out, hamstring), TEv LaPorta (questionable, calf)
TB injuries: EDGE Shaquil Barrett (questionable, illness)

DET DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: none

DET DFS fades: Goff $6,400 DK / $7,800 FD (TB second in passing DVOA, t-3rd in passing TDs allowed), Josh Reynolds $4,500 DK / $6,700 FD (TB third in DVOA vs. WR2), Lions DST $2,700 DK / $4,400 FD (TB fifth in giveaways, t-1st in sacks allowed)
TB DFS fades: Rachaad White $5,500 DK / $6,300 FD (DET fourth in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)

Key stat: DET is 18th in third-down conversions at 38.8 percent; TB is 29th in third-down defense at 47.4 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, 10-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Montgomery thunders for 110 yards and a TD. Goff throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, hitting ARSB and Jameson Williams. White stumbles for 50 yards. Mayfield throws for 230 yards and two scores, finding Chris Godwin and Trey Palmer, and an Antoine Winfield pick-six keeps things close. Lions 27-21

Arizona (+6.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

After getting put in their place by the 49ers in Week 4 and then watching Joe Burrow wake up in Week 5, the Cardinals are 1-4 and probably about where most people expected them to be back in August. Joshua Dobbs had his first real dud performance last week, completing fewer than 50 percent of his passes and committing three turnovers, and the offense lost its most reliable asset in James Conner against the Bengals. Undrafted rookie Emari Demercado popped in Conner's absence, but Keaontay Ingram and his career 1.9 YPC are still listed ahead of Demercado on the depth chart for some inexplicable reason, plus the team snagged Tony Jones off waivers from the Saints during the week, so there's no clarity in the backfield when it comes to who fills in. Conner's not irreplaceable though, just solid, and Arizona does have some talent in its receiving corps if Dobbs is forced to sling it. The Cards are top 10 in yards per play, even if they're only 19th in points per game, so the offense has been credible. It's a defense that's allowed three of the last four opponents to top 30 points that's the bigger issue.

The Rams are only marginally better at 2-3, but they at least figure to be a lot of fun to watch. Cooper Kupp came off the IR last week against the Eagles to an 8-118-0 line on 12 targets – i.e. business as usual – but Puka Nacua also posted a 7-71-1 line on 11 targets, so it looks like the old superstar and the young hotness can happily co-exist. Even Tutu Atwell, who saw a season-low five targets, still got into the end zone. The weird thing about the Rams' riches at receiver is that while the guys catching the ball have been very productive, the guy throwing it to them hasn't. Matthew Stafford's got a mediocre 61.1 percent completion rate (his lowest mark since 2014, and near the bottom of the league in the Justin Fields-Zach Wilson range) with a 5:5 TD:INT and 7.1 YPA. It feels like something has to give there – either Stafford's numbers are going to rise significantly now that he's got Kupp back, or Nacua's are going to fade as the 35-year-old Stafford has trouble keeping everyone fed. I'm inclined to say the former, if only because the volume should be there – the defense isn't generating takeaways or getting sacks, and Aaron Donald is just one man.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: QB Kyler Murray (PUP, knee), RB Conner (IR, knee), WR Marquise Brown (questionable, illness), S Jalen Thompson (out, hamstring)
LAR injuries: LB Ernest Jones (questionable, knee)

ARI DFS targets: Zach Ertz $3,600 DK / $5,200 FD (LAR 30th in DVOA vs. TE)
LAR DFS targets: Kyren Williams $6,500 DK / $8,200 FD (ARI t-27th in rushing TDs allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

ARI DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 9-2 LAR, average score 28-17 LAR, average margin of victory 16 points. Only three of the last 14 meetings have been decided by a single score, including a 34-11 LAR victory in the wild-card round of the 2021 season
Key stat: LAR are ninth in third-down conversions at 43.7 percent; ARI is 30th in third-down defense at 47.5 percent

The Scoop: Demercado leads the ARI backfield with 90 combined yards and a score. Dobbs throws for 220 yards and two TDs, finding Trey McBride and Brown. Williams responds with 80 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Stafford fires up 310 yards and three TDs, two to Kupp (who tops 100 yards) and one to Atwell. Rams 28-24

Philadelphia at N.Y. Jets (+7), o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

I don't know whether the Eagles are lucky to be undefeated right now, or if they're cagily doing just enough to win each week in order to keep their batteries fresh for later in the season and tougher matchups. The five teams they've beaten have a combined nine wins, and the Bucs are the only ones with a winning record right now. Last week's game against the Rams is a perfect example of what I'm talking about – Philly was actually trailing 14-10 with 32 seconds left before halftime, but Jalen Hurts struck for a quick TD before heading to the locker room, and Jake Elliott and the defense took the reins in the second half. This is an offense that has yet to score fewer than 23 points in a game and has piled up more than 400 yards in four straight weeks, but it doesn't yet feel like it's really gotten going. I suspect they know their season doesn't really start until November – over a six-week stretch, the Eagles face the Cowboys twice plus the Bills and Niners and a Super Bowl rematch in Kansas City, with their bye tucked into the middle.

Leave it to the Jets to score 31 points in a game, and get nothing from their quarterback. Zach Wilson somehow threw for under 200 yards and zero TDs last week against the Broncos, instead being content to sit on the bus (I'm not even going to say he drove it... he was Alan Ruck, not Sandra Bullock) while Breece Hall erupted for 177 yards and a score, Greg Zuerlein kicked five field goals and the defense produced a safety and a TD. Nice work if you can get it, but this team isn't making the playoffs if that's how they need to generate points every week. If you want to find a silver lining in his performance, Wilson's topped a 70 percent completion rate each of the last two weeks, and with the offense at least being able to sustain a drive or two, the defense has been able to show its teeth. He ever gets a Philly secondary this week missing two of its top three corners, although New York's DBs aren't in much better shape. The Jets are still second-last in the league in first downs per game though (only the Steelers are worse) and last in plays run per game, and until that changes, there's no reason to get too excited here. At least Aaron Rodgers is taking his rehab super-seriously.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: WR Quez Watkins (out, hamstring)
NYJ injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

PHI DFS targets: none
NYJ DFS targets: Tyler Conklin $3,300 DK / $4,900 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS fades: none
NYJ DFS fades: Hall $6,000 DK / $6,800 FD (PHI first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPC allowed) 

Key stat: PHI is second in third-down conversions at 50.7 percent; NYJ are 27th in third-down defense at 45.8 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the mid-50s, 10-15 mph wind, 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: D'Andre Swift gallops for 110 combined yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Hurts throws for 290 yards and two more scores, one each to A.J. Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Dallas Goedert. Hall manages 60 yards and a TD. Wilson throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Randall Cobb. Eagles 31-17

SUNDAY NIGHT

N.Y. Giants (+14) at Buffalo, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

I guess this is the week for QBs who already got that bag to duck a tough defense, although in Daniel Jones' case, I really can't fault the survival instinct on display given the state of the Giants' offensive line. Big Blue's been Big Eww so far in 2023, with their minus-91 point differential being the worst in the NFL by a wide margin, and even the winless Panthers are only minus-53. Saquon Barkley might make it back for this game, but it's hard to see a way for him to make much of a difference. This team has really played only two good quarters of football (the second half against the Cards in Week 2) and they've otherwise just gotten their butts kicked. Think about this one – they lost by 15 last week against the Dolphins, and won the turnover battle 3:0. How is that even possible?

Let's be honest, it's been a wobbly start to the year for the Bills. Yeah, they thumped the Dolphins, and that could ultimately be the only early-season result that matters, but memories of that Week 1 gut punch loss to the Jets all came flooding back last week in London when they basically spotted the Jags the entire first half and then couldn't quite put together a comeback once they woke up. Josh Allen seems very intent on winning an MVP Award, amassing 14 total TDs through the first five games (11 passing, three rushing) and completing an absurd 73.1 percent of his passes with an 8.0 YPA. Stefon Diggs has been lighting it up as a result with four 100-yard games and five touchdowns, while Big Play Gabe Davis has gotten into the end zone in four straight weeks. There's little reason they can't run the table at least through Thanksgiving, except the Bills seem to be their own worst enemy. In their three wins, they've committed one giveaway; in the two losses, they've coughed up the ball a total of six times.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: QB Jones (out, neck), RB Barkley (questionable, ankle), TE Darren Waller (questionable, groin)
BUF injuries: TE Dawson Knox (questionable, wrist), TE Dalton Kincaid (questionable, concussion)

NYG DFS targets: Wan'Dale Robinson $3,700 DK / $5,500 FD (BUF 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
BUF DFS targets: James Cook $6,400 DK / $6,600 FD (NYG 29th in rushing DVOA, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPC allowed, t-31st in rushing TDs allowed), Diggs $8,800 DK / $9,000 FD (NYG 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Bills DST $3,700 DK / $4,700 FD (first in takeaways, first in sacks, NYG 32nd in sacks allowed) 

NYG DFS fades: Tyrod Taylor $5,100 DK / $6,500 FD (BUF third in passing DVOA, t-3rd in passing TDs allowed), Jalin Hyatt $3,400 DK / $4,600 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. WR3), Giants DST $2,100 DK / $3,000 FD (t-28th in takeaways, t-31st in sacks)
BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG are t-24th in red-zone conversions at 45.5 percent (5-for-11); BUF is t-8th in red-zone defense at 46.7 percent (7-for-15)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 60-70 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Barkley plays but gains only 40 yards. Taylor throws for under 200 yards but does hit Robinson for a TD. Cook jets for 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Allen throws for 350 yards and three touchdowns, two to Diggs (who tops 100 yards) and one to Khalil Shakir, and he also makes highlight reels with a slip-n-slide rushing TD. Bills 35-10

THURSDAY NIGHT

Denver (+10.5) at Kansas City, o/u 47.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The last four weeks, the Broncos have given up 35 points to the Commanders, 31 to the Jets and 28 to the Bears, even if you put aside that other performance. It really doesn't matter how good a job Sean Payton does getting Russell Wilson back on track if the defense — and, to be fair, there's a fumble return TD and a safety mixed in with those points for the Jets — keeps struggling like that. (Also, Josh McDaniels' Raiders only managing 17 points against them in Week 1 might be looked back on as the very first of the dozens of good reasons he provides for his eventual and inevitable firing.) Wilson looks like he's put 2022 behind him, though, posting a 9:2 TD:INT over the last four games with an 8.0 YPA. Undrafted rookie running back Jaleel McLaughlin also looks like a keeper and could buy Javonte Williams some extra time to get past his knee injury. The Denver offense has weapons, and it should get another one back soon in second-year TE Greg Dulcich, but racking up 30 points might be the baseline for this team to have a shot at winning most weeks.

At 4-1, Kansas City is already starting to pull away in the AFC West, and the defending champs' high-powered offense hasn't come close to playing at its usual level yet. Travis Kelce did his best to introduce all his new Swiftie fans to the roller coaster of emotions that comes with injuries in the NFL — he limped off the field just before halftime last week with a non-contact injury, making everyone fear the worst, but in the third quarter he had his foot and ankle heavily wrapped and was trying to sneak back into the huddle when the coaches weren't paying attention. Eventually, Kelce was allowed to return and scored what proved to be the winning touchdown, because of course he did. The short turnaround puts his status for this one in question, and the team can certainly afford to give him a week off to heal. It might even be better for Kansas City in the long run, as it would give Patrick Mahomes another game to try to sort out which of his half-dozen receivers he actually likes. So far, Justin Watson and rookie Rashee Rice have been the closest thing to reliable, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and/or Justyn Ross could pop at a moment's notice. Meanwhile, the defense has yet to allow more than 21 points or 368 yards in a game, and the Vikings last week were the first team to even get 20 first downs against them. Note also the potentially wet and windy conditions Thursday night, which would only help Chris Jones, L'Jarius Sneed and company keep that stingy run going.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: TE Dulcich (IR-R, hamstring), S Justin Simmons (questionable, hip)
KC injuries: TE Kelce (questionable, ankle)

DEN DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: Mahomes $8,100 DK / $9,500 FD (DEN 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Isiah Pacheco $5,700 DK / $7,000 FD (DEN 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed, t-29th in rushing TDs allowed), Moore $4,000 DK / $5,400 FD (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Watson $3,300 DK / $5,100 FD (DEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3, 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws), Kelce $7,700 DK / $8,300 FD and Noah Gray $3,300 DK / $4,600 FD (DEN 29th in DVOA vs. TE)

DEN DFS fades: Courtland Sutton $5,200 DK / $6,400 FD (KC first in DVOA vs. WR1)
KC DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 10-0 KC, average score 29-17 KC, average margin of victory 11 points. KC has won 15 straight meetings, but four of the last five have been by a single score (average score during that stretch is 27-20)
Key stat: KC is first in third-down conversions at 51.5 percent, DEN is t-18th in third-down defense at 40.7 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, 20-25 mph wind, 60-65 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams leads the DEN backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for 230 yards and a TD to Marvin Mims. Pacheco churns out 90 yards and a score, while Jerick McKinnon catches a TD pass. Mahomes throws for 260 yards and a second score to Watson, and Sneed adds a pick-six to put the game away. Kansas City 28-17

Last week's record: 6-8, 6-7-1 ATS, 7-7 o/u
2023 record: 44-34, 37-37-4 ATS, 46-31-1 o/u