NFL Game Previews: Giants-Steelers Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

N.Y. Giants (+6.5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 36.5
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The clock has to be ticking on Brian Daboll. The Giants do have two wins, but they've been held to single-digit points three times in seven games, including a combined 10 points in the last two weeks against Bengals and Eagles defenses that other teams haven't had much trouble exploiting. Daniel Jones got benched last week, but Daboll said it wasn't permanent — considering the alternatives on the roster are Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito, that's entirely reasonable no matter how badly Jones plays. He is playing pretty badly, though, failing to throw a TD in three of the last four games, and a $22 million dead cap hit for getting rid of him this coming offseason is starting to look palatable. The defense hasn't been any better. It's 29th in QB rating against and 32nd in YPC allowed, but somehow tied for 12th in PPG allowed, a numbers which seems likely to plummet in the second half.

A lot of people, myself included, should have known better than to doubt Mike Tomlin, as the switch to Russell Wilson last week worked out just fine. More than fine — the Steelers scored a season-high 37 points against a good Jets defense, and both Najee Harris and George Pickens has their most productive performances of the year. (In retrospect I should have pegged that as a revenge game, with Wilson getting a chance to show up Nathaniel Hackett on the other sideline.) The veteran QB still hasn't been good since about 2021 or so, but he doesn't need to be at his peak to make it work in Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense has held six of seven opponents to 20 points or less, and the only exception was when they got Flacco'ed in Week 4. The Ravens may look downright unstoppable, but the Steelers are right there with them in the AFC North at 5-2, and they won't face each other until Week 11 (and then again Week 16). The division looks like a two-horse race barring the Bengals doing something miraculous, and Wilson will face a couple soft secondaries around his bye to shake off the rest of his rust. Tomlin won't let his team look past this game, but I sure can, even if the fact that the Steelers are using their third-string center does give me a slight pause.

Key Info

NYG injuries: K Graham Gano (IR, hamstring), EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (IR, wrist)
PIT injuries: RB Cordarrelle Patterson (doubtful, ankle), WR Roman Wilson (out, hamstring), EDGE Nick Herbig (out, hamstring), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee) 

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYG DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: George Pickens, Calvin Austin

NYG DFS fades: Tyrone Tracy/Devin Singletary, Malik Nabers
PIT DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Tracy leads the NYG backfield with 40 yards. Jones throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Donte Jackson returns for a TD, but he does hit Wan'Dale Robinson for a score. Harris pops for 110 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for 250 yards and two TDs, one each to Pickens and Austin. Steelers 31-7

EARLY SUNDAY

Baltimore at Cleveland (+9), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

After their 0-2 start — both single-score losses, though there's really no excusing the one to the Raiders at this point — the Ravens have reeled off five consecutive wins as they got their formula down on offense. During those five wins, Derrick Henry has averaged 20.6 carries a game, an incomprehensible 7.2 yards a carry, and he's scored eight TDs. If you're wondering how a power back who seemed to be getting worn down his last couple years in Tennessee is having the best season of his career at age 30, look no further than his blocking. Henry generally averaged about two yards a carry before contact as a Titan, with his yearly marks ranging from 1.9 to a high of 2.5 in 2020. In 2024, he's gaining 4.2 yards per carry before contact, the highest figure of any RB in the league. The only two guys ahead of him are QBs ... and one of those is Lamar Jackson. (Somehow, the other is Bo Nix.) Henry is putting up more yards before contact than guys like Najee Harris and Alvin Kamara are getting per carry. Oh, and then someone has to tackle him. To look at another freaky stat, Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in 2023 in Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expected, amassing a total of 349 RYOE over the entire season. Henry's already got 363 RYOE in just seven games. With the running game being that unstoppable, Jackson's beginning to realize he can kind of do whatever he wants. During the winning streak, he's completed 71.5 percent of his passes with a 10.5 YPA and 13:1 TD:INT. That's against five plausible playoff teams in Dallas, Buffalo, Cincy, Washington and Tampa Bay. The Ravens' defense is struggling — bottom 10 in PPG allowed, yards allowed per play and QB rating against — but, for now, it doesn't seem to matter in the slightest. If the offense keeps rolling like this, John Harbaugh's got a couple months yet to get things sorted on the other side of the ball.

A tip of the cap to Deshaun Watson's right Achilles tendon for making the ultimate sacrifice, as it was willing to do what Kevin Stefanski wasn't and get the league's worst quarterback out of the lineup. Watson's contract is still going to be an albatross around the franchise's neck for a couple more years, but at least for the rest of 2024, the offense might show a bit of life. Nick Chubb was always going to be the focal point once he got back, and while he didn't set the world on fire in his return from his own very serious injury while running behind a banged-up offensive line, he did at least find the end zone last week. Jameis Winston now takes over a passing game that has an Amari Cooper-shaped hole in it, but which still has Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku and some younger guys looking for a chance to prove themselves in Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman. The Cooper trade could signal a further exodus of talent on the defensive side — this is a 1-6 team after all, and the NFL trade deadline actually means something these days — but if the core stays intact around Myles Garrett, the Browns might at least be able to play spoiler down the stretch.

Key Info

BAL injuries: RB Keaton Mitchell (PUP, knee), WR Zay Flowers (questionable, ankle)
CLE injuries: QB Deshaun Watson (IR, Achilles), RB Jerome Ford (out, hamstring), RB Nyheim Hines (NFI, knee), LB Jordan Hicks (out, elbow)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BAL DFS targets: none
CLE DFS targets: David Njoku

BAL DFS fades: Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely
CLE DFS fades: none

Weather notes: no weather concerns 

The Scoop

Henry stomps out 140 yards and two scores. Jackson throws for 320 yards and two TDs, one each to Flowers (who tops 100 yards) and Rashod Bateman. Chubb manages 60 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. Winston throws for 220 yards and a second score to Njoku. Ravens 31-17

Tennessee (+11.5) at Detroit, o/u 45.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

So maybe Will Levis isn't the only thing wrong with the Titans' offense. With Mason Rudolph under center last week, Tennessee managed a whopping 289 yards and 10 points against Buffalo, dropping the team's record to 1-5. Levis' sore shoulder could keep him sidelined for at least one more game, but with DeAndre Hopkins on his way to join the defending champs and Calvin Ridley dealing with a foot injury, it hardly seems to matter who throws passes to a group led by Tyler Boyd, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chigoziem Okonkwo. Maybe Treylon Burks will get one final chance to ... oh, he's on IR. Tony Pollard's been surprisingly productive in the backfield, and the defense has held together (second in yards allowed per play), but remaining a ground-and-pound team as it was under Mike Vrabel isn't what Brian Callahan was brought over from Cincy to do. Expect more deals before the trade deadline as the front office positions itself for the 2025 draft — while Jeffery Simmons' contract might be hard to move, Harold Landry (four sacks in six games) could be a good bet to be the next veteran to follow Hopkins and Ernest Jones out the door.

The Lions escaped Minnesota with a win last week, and they now sit atop the league's toughest division at 5-1. Jared Goff hasn't played outdoors since Week 2, and it shows — over his last four games, he's delivered a gobsmacking 83.5 percent completion rate, 9:1 TD:INT, and an 11.9 YPA. If the NFC playoffs end up running through Detroit, it will be difficult for any offense to keep pace with that. That doesn't even factor in the running game. David Montgomery failed to get into the end zone last week for the first time all year, but he didn't need to with Jahmyr Gibbs erupting for 160 scrimmage yards and two scores. The defense is ninth in PPG allowed at 20.0, but only via some timely takeaways, and we have yet to see what the unit looks like without Aidan Hutchinson in the long term. Goff and company should be able to out-score any defensive lapses most of the time, but it's still something the front office might look to address at the trade deadline.

Key Info

TEN injuries: QB Will Levis (questionable, shoulder), RB Tyjae Spears (questionable, hamstring), WR Calvin Ridley (questionable, foot), LB Kenneth Murray (questionable, shoulder)
DET injuries: WR Jameson Williams (out, suspension)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TEN DFS targets: none
DET DFS targets: none

TEN DFS fades: Titans DST
DET DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Pollard picks up 90 combined yards and a TD. Rudolph throws for less than 200 yards and tosses a pick-six to Terrion Arnold. Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 130 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving, while Montgomery also punches in a touchdown. Goff throws for 310 yards and two more TDs, hitting Amon-Ra St. Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Tim Patrick. Lions 45-13

Indianapolis (+5) at Houston, o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

You can't say the Colts get inconsistent results, at least. Every Indy game so far as been decided by six points or less, with the team winning four of seven — and four of the last five. Sure, the last couple of victories have been over teams QBed by Will Levis and the dynamic duo of Tyler Huntley and Tim Boyle, but they still count, and it's not like the Colts have been super healthy either. Jonathan Taylor missed the last three weeks, while DeForest Buckner's been out since the first quarter of Week 2. Taylor will be back for this one, though, and Buckner's return won't be far behind. That will put the focus squarely back on Anthony Richardson, who can still charitably be described as a work in progress. The second-year quarterback completed just 41.7 percent of his passes last week against the Dolphins, a horrifying number that's the product of mechanical inconsistency and sheer lack of reps. I'm still a believer in Richardson's long-term future so long as he can stay in one piece, but if a breakout's coming, it won't happen until 2025 at the earliest, and even that might be optimistic. Until then, the Colts will lean on JT — and maybe Richardson's legs too, if last week was any indication — to keep games close, and keep a shaky defense off the field as much as possible.

One of the Colts' three losses, of course, came at home against the Texans in Week 1. Indy dominated this AFC South rivalry a few years ago when Frank Reich could out-coach Bill O'Brien, but Houston's 3-1-1 in the last five meetings. DeMeco Ryans' crew should have won in Green Bay last week, but it couldn't take full advantage of Jordan Love's mistakes and couldn't stop his two-minute drill in the fourth quarter, and that was that. C.J. Stroud threw for a career-low 86 yards and failed to produce a TD for the first time all season, and the absence of Nico Collins was noticeable, though I don't want to take too much credit away from the job the Packers' secondary did — a job the Colts' back end probably doesn't have the talent to repeat. Stroud still has Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz, not to mention Joe Mixon in the backfield, and the defense — third in yards allowed per play and tied for fourth in sacks, but only 17th in PPG allowed — still has another gear it can get to.

Key Info

IND injuries: DT DeForest Buckner (IR, ankle), EDGE Samson Ebukam (IR, Achilles)
HOU injuries: WR Nico Collins (IR, hamstring), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (questionable, knee), LB Henry To'oTo'o (questionable, concussion), LR Christian Harris (IR, calf)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
IND DFS targets: none
HOU DFS targets: none

IND DFS fades: Jonathan Taylor, Mo Alie-Cox
HOU DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Taylor gains 70 yards. Richardson throws for less than 200 yards but tosses a score to Alec Pierce and runs in a TD. Zaire Franklin also returns a Diggs fumble to the house. Mixon is held to 60 yards. Stroud throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Dell, Schultz and Diggs, and he leads a game-winning FG drive in the final minutes. Texans 27-24

Green Bay at Jacksonville (+4), o/u 49.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The NFC North remains ridiculous, with three teams at five wins and the Bears stuck in the basement at a mere 4-2. The Packers almost fell to 4-3 last week, but a heroic effort by the secondary allowed them to escape despite Jordan Love's two INTs and three consecutive drives in the second half in which Green Bay failed to get a first down. Love's inexperience has shown at times — Sunday's game will only be his 24th career start — and he's tied for the league lead with eight interceptions despite missing two games, but only Baker Mayfield has thrown more TDs, and nobody has a better TD rate or has been sacked on a lower percentage of their dropbacks. Speaking of TD rates, Josh Jacobs finally hauled in his first career receiving touchdown in Week 7, an absurd stat considering he caught nearly 200 passes as a Raider. He's having a tidy first season with the Packers, sitting fourth in rushing yards, and the offense as a whole sits in the top seven in PPG and yards per play. Green Bay has a brutal schedule, though, and on paper this game is its easiest matchup until it gets the Saints in Week 16, or maybe the Dolphins in Week 13. Otherwise, it's a sea of divisional games, plus the 49ers and Seahawks.

The Jaguars have won two of their last three games, but beating the Patriots and barely getting by a shorthanded Colts squad is far from impressive. They'll also go down as the only team to lose to Deshaun Watson in 2024, and they got routed by the Bills and Bears. Trevor Lawrence at least has stepped it up during that three-game stretch, completing 74.2 percent of his passes with a 5:2 TD:INT and 9.0 YPA, and whatever chances the Jags have of salvaging their season rest with him finally becoming an elite QB as opposed to staying in the Pretty Good Zone. The cast around him on offense hasn't really been 100 percent healthy all year either, but it's getting close. The issue has been the defense, especially the secondary. Jacksonville is 32nd in QB rating against, 31st in passing yards allowed per game, 32nd in passing TDs allowed, bottom five in completion rate allowed, YPA allowed and takeaways ... quarterbacks have mostly been able to do what they want against DC Ryan Nielsen's unit. No matter how well Lawrence plays, that's a tough hole to climb out of every week, and while there are some veteran depth pieces who could get healthy and help a little, Foyesade Oluokun's the only one who might move the needle at all.

Key Info

GB injuries: RB MarShawn Lloyd (IR, ankle), WR Jayden Reed (questionable, ankle), WR Christian Watson (questionable, ankle), LB Quay Walker (questionable, concussion)
JAC injuries: RB Travis Etienne (questionable, hamstring), WR Gabe Davis (questionable, knee), LB Foyesade Oluokun (IR, foot)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
GB DFS targets: Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, Tucker Kraft
JAC DFS targets: none

GB DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Jacobs churns out 110 yards and a TD. Love throws for 350 yards and four touchdowns, two to Doubs (who tops 100 yards) and one each to Reed and Kraft. Tank Bigsby leads the JAC backfield with 100 yards and a score. Lawrence throws for 210 yards and two TDs, finding Evan Engram and Brian Thomas. Packers 38-24

Arizona (+3.5) at Miami, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Over their last four games, the Cardinals have won two games by a total of three points, and lost two by a total of seven. Seven converted touchdowns, that is. I'll give them credit for being scrappy, but their three wins this season have all come against teams missing extremely key players. The list of guys they've ducked in those victories includes Puka Nacua, Joey Bosa and Christian McCaffrey, and while big-name injuries seem to be par for the course in 2024, Arizona's been one of the luckier teams in that regard. While Kyler Murray may be healthy, though, he hasn't exactly been productive. Aside from one big performance against the Rams, he's thrown exactly one TD in every game this season and hasn't topped 214 passing yards. He is on pace for his best numbers on the ground since 2020, but OC Drew Petzing's scheme isn't getting the most out of Murray, or 2024 fourth overall pick Marvin Harrison for that matter. Harrison's got a miserable 5-57-0 line on 15 targets the last three games, and while he missed most of one of those with a concussion, that 's just one game. He could still pop for a big second half, but he's seen double-digit targets only once so far. It's getting close to the point where I'll start asking the same question of Petzing that I used to ask of Arthur Smith in Atlanta, which is, "Why are you investing all this draft capital in players you don't seem to want to use?"

Arizona's run of avoiding key players also might come to an abrupt end this week. Tua Tagovailoa is expected to come off IR and take over the reins of an offense that managed just 10 points and 274.5 yards a game without him. Tyreek Hill is happy, at the very least, and presumably Jaylen Waddle is too, if not as loudly. Of course, Miami only scored 30 points total in the two games Tagovailoa played before suffering his latest concussion, but it should still be a massive step up from the three-headed backup monster the team's been using in his place. The defense has also, somewhat under the radar, been excellent, ranking first in the league in passing yards allowed per game and passing TDs allowed despite having faced Geno Smith (the current leader in passing yards) and Josh Allen. The Dolphins are only 2-4, but it's not hard to imagine them going on a run and still making the playoffs if Tua stays on the field. The tough thing for me is figuring out how much weight to give his return in this week's Scoop. If Skylar Thompson were getting the start, I'd have it 24-14 Cardinals ...

Key Info

ARI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
MIA injuries: QB Tua Tagovailoa (IR, concussion), WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, foot), EDGE Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ARI DFS targets: Marvin Harrison
MIA DFS targets: Odell Beckham

ARI DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

James Conner dashes for 110 yards and a score. Murray throws for 220 yards and two TDs, both to Harrison. De'Von Achane leads the MIA backfield with 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Tagovailoa throws for 250 yards and two scores, one to Hill and one to Beckham. Dolphins 24-21

N.Y. Jets at New England (+7), o/u 41.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Let's see. The Jets fired their head coach and switched to a new play-caller. They traded for Davante Adams, and made sure Breece Hall gets treated like a bell cow. They're still losing, and Aaron Rodgers still has a 5:6 TD:INT the last three games. Maybe Rodgers is the problem? Frankly, he looks like a 40-year-old coming back from Achilles tendon surgery, and no amount of coaching changes or roster moves is likely to get him back to being the guy he was even five years ago. The Jets have scored more than 20 points only twice in seven games, and it's the only two they've won. The defense started to wilt under the strain last week, coughing up 37 points to the Steelers in Russell Wilson's first action of the season, and while having Haason Reddick finally show up will provide an extra boost to a pass rush that was already in the top 10 in sacks and pressure rate, he probably won't help the unit's discipline issues. New York is 30th in penalty yardage and 31st in first downs handed to the other team on penalties, because the non-Sauce Gardner parts of the secondary keep having to try to get away with a hold or PI to avoid being burned.

There might be no better get-right opponent in the NFL than the Patriots, though. (Maybe the Panthers.) New England's lost six consecutive games and is gunning hard for that top pick in the 2025 draft, and the haul that would come with trading it to a team looking for a new franchise QB. The Pats, at least, seem set on that front. Drake Maye looks legit, even if he hasn't won a game yet, tossing five TDs in his first two starts with a solid 65.7 percent completion rate, 7.4 YPA and only two INTs. He's got no offensive line and a lackluster collection of skill players around him, but that's what next year's draft capital is for. The defense might need fixing just as badly, though, giving up 30-plus points to three of its last four opponents — and the only exception was the Tua-less Dolphins. The Jets won the first meeting this season 24-3, and while Maye raises the ceiling on the Pats, their floor is still in the basement.

Key Info

NYJ injuries: WR Allen Lazard (doubtful, chest), S Tony Adams (doubtful, hamstring), S Ashtyn Davis (out, concussion)
NE injuries: WR Ja'Lynn Polk (out, concussion), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (IR, pectoral)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NYJ DFS targets: Aaron Rodgers, NYJ DST
NE DFS targets: none

NYJ DFS fades: none
NE DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Hall racks up 80 combined yards and a TD. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, finding Adams and Garrett Wilson. Rhamondre Stevenson gains 60 yards. Maye throws for less than 200 yards but does hit DeMario Douglas for a score. Jets 27-13

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+2.5), o/u 46.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Falcons seem like they're going to be one of those teams this season that never takes the easy route. After sweeping their first run through the rest of the NFC South, they came home to face a Seattle team that had to travel cross-country, and Atlanta completely fell on its face in a 34-14 rout. In fact, the Falcons are now 1-3 against non-divisional opponents, and the one win was by one point over an Eagles team that was ahead by six with 99 seconds left. Bijan Robinson is surging, erupting for 248 scrimmage yards and three TDs the last two games, and Drake London has a 42-476-5 line on 59 targets the last six games as Kirk Cousins has quickly figured out who his top guy really is. Even Kyle Pitts has found some life, posting a 17-223-0 line on 22 targets over the last three weeks. Weird how three top-10 draft picks turned out to be pretty talented after all. The defense, however, isn't holding up its end. The Falcons have coughed up 27.0 points and 343.3 yards per game the last four weeks, and that includes a game against the Panthers, and injuries keep mounting on that side of the ball.

Don't even talk to the Bucs about injuries. In the space of one week, Baker Mayfield lost his top two wideouts, one for the season. Mayfield was already showing signs of regression, tossing five INTs in the last two games, but now he has to throw to the likes of Trey Palmer and Sterling Shepard instead of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. We've already seen this season how losing that much talent worked out for Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts, and there's no reason not to expect the same type of collapse in Mayfield's production. Maybe the offense can get by leaning on its backfield, though? It worked against New Orleans a couple weeks ago. OC Liam Coen might have to concede that Rachaad White doesn't deserve double-digit carries every game, but if White gets shifted to a passing-down role and Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving handle the workload on the ground, it could pay off. The Bucs lost 36-30 in Atlanta in Week 5, though, and that was with Evans hauling in two TDs, so it's hard to like their chances here — especially with top corner Jamel Dean also missing from the lineup.

Key Info

ATL injuries: LB Troy Andersen (out, knee), S Justin Simmons (doubtful, hamstring)

TB injuries: RB Bucky Irving (questionable, toe), WR Mike Evans (out, hamstring), WR Chris Godwin (IR, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
ATL DFS targets: Kyle Pitts
TB DFS targets: none

ATL DFS fades: none
TB DFS fades: none 

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Robinson piles up 120 combined yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 280 yards and two TDs, hitting London (who tops 100 yards) and Pitts. Tucker leads the TB backfield with 60 yards and a score, while Irving adds 50 yards. Mayfield throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Jalen McMillan, but he gets picked off twice. Falcons 27-17

Philadelphia (+2.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Eagles took care of business against the Giants last week, and they're 3-0 with both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in the lineup. Not that the passing game had a lot to do in Week 7, as Saquon Barkley trampled his former team into the dirt. (Really, the ultimate insult was Barkley not even bothering to go for his personal rushing record late in the game. Ice cold. Now that's how you cap off a revenge game, kids.) I still have questions about the defense — holding Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones to a combined 19 points in back-to-back games isn't much of an accomplishment — but the Philly offense can be as good as anyone in the league when it's firing on all cylinders. Jalen Hurts hasn't thrown an INT in three games, but he has committed three fumbles already, and ball security remains the one big hole in his skill set. The Eagles' offensive line is missing two starters, but the Bengals are 26th in sacks and 22nd in pressure rate, so that may not be a huge issue for Hurts this week. Philly's a half-game game back of Washington in the NFC East, so a division title or playoff berth are still well within reach, but this team still feels somehow less than the sum of its parts.

The same could be said of the Bengals, though. They have won three of their last four, but those victories also came against the Giants and Browns, plus the feeble Panthers for good measure. In other words, Cincy has yet to beat a team with more than two wins this season, and that Week 1 loss to the Patriots just keeps looking worse and worse. Joe Burrow's doing everything he can to get the club back on track, tossing multiple TDs in five of the last six games with a 70.1 percent completion rate, 8.1 YPA and 14:2 TD:INT, but it hasn't been enough to make up for a vastly underperforming defenses. Statistically, they don't rank near the bottom, but again, more than half their games have come against the dregs of the league. Against actual contenders, the Bengals' defense has fallen apart, surrendering 38 points to the Commanders and 41 to the Ravens. There aren't any injured players who will return and provide a big boost, either, and while Trey Hendrickson and Logan Wilson are playing at about their usual level, they're getting little help, especially from the secondary. Cincy's 3-4 record means their season isn't over yet, but without a massive turnaround on that side of the ball, it might as well be.

Key Info

PHI injuries: TE Dallas Goedert (out, hamstring)
CIN injuries: WR Tee Higgins (questionable, quadriceps)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
PHI DFS targets: none
CIN DFS targets: Ja'Marr Chase

PHI DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: Erick All/Mike Gesicki

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Barkley rolls for 130 combined yards and two scores. Hurts throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Grant Calcaterra. Chase Brown leads the CIN backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown. Burrow throws for 290 yards and two scores, one each to Chase (who tops 100 yards) and Andrei Iosivas. Eagles 34-30

LATE SUNDAY

New Orleans (+7.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 40.5
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The losing streak stands at five for the Saints, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. (Probably not this week, mind you. They get the Panthers in Week 9.) Derek Carr looks set to miss his third consecutive game due to an oblique strain, and the team is so desperate for help at wideout that it signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has been disappointing coaches and fantasy GMs alike since 2018. New Orleans still has Alvin Kamara, and Chris Olave will be back this week, but rookie QB Spencer Rattler has mostly looked like a fifth-round pick in his two starts working behind a patchwork offensive line, posting a 1:2 TD:INT and 5.5 YPA. Corner Paulson Adebo also hit IR this week, but that could wind up being addition by subtraction given his play this year, and the fact that it gives 2024 second-round pick and All-Time Name Hall of Famer Kool-Aid McKinstry a chance to show what he can do. (Sure, Kool-Aid's only a nickname. His given name's Ga'Quincy McKinstry, which phonetically is just pure joy.) I still don't fully understand how this team scored 91 points in two wins to begin the season, then managed only 86 total points in its five straight losses, but presumably if the roster gets healthy again, that offensive potential is still in there somewhere.

A 3-3 record seems about right for this Chargers team. They've had a relatively easy schedule so far aside from their first Kansas City battle, but they haven't looked particularly impressive in either the wins or the losses. Jim Harbaugh's reduced the volatility that used to be the Bolts' hallmark, but that's meant lowering the ceiling as well as raising the floor. This team has yet to score more than 26 points in a game this season — in fact, the Chargers are 3-0 when scoring more than 20, and 0-3 when they don't, as the defense has yet to give up more than 20. Justin Herbert gets a little closer to 100 percent health every week, and his 349 passing yards and 69.2 percent completion rate against the Cards in Week 7 were encouraging, even if they didn't come with a touchdown. He comes into this one with a significantly hobbled group of pass-catchers though, as Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Will Dissly are all working through something. The Chargers might get DJ Chark off IR though, which could help.

Key Info

NO injuries: QB Derek Carr (doubtful, oblique), WR Rashid Shaheed (IR, knee), WR Cedrick Wilson (out, hip)

LAC injuries: RB Gus Edwards (IR, ankle), WR Quentin Johnston (doubtful, ankle), WR Ladd McConkey (questionable, hip), WR DJ Chark (IR, groin), TE Will Dissly (questionable, shoulder), TE Hayden Hurst (questionable, groin), EDGE Joey Bosa (questionable, hip)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NO DFS targets: Mason Tipton
LAC DFS targets: J.K. Dobbins

NO DFS fades: none
LAC DFS fades: Joshua Palmer

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Kamara zips for 80 yards and a TD. Rattler throws for under 200 yards and a score to Tipton. Dobbins churns out 100 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Herbert throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Simi Fehoko. Chargers 24-17 

Buffalo at Seattle (+3), o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

After that late September-early October stumble, the Bills seem to be back on track thanks to a layup game against the Titans. Josh Allen continues his quest for an MVP, and he's the first QB to go seven games without an INT to begin a season since Alex Smith in 2017 (who didn't get picked off until his ninth start). Allen's produced 15 TDs, 12 through the air and three on the ground, but that brutal performance against the Texans a few weeks ago has put a dent in his other numbers. Amari Cooper got incorporated into the offense quickly last week, posting a 4-66-1 line on five targets despite playing only 18 snaps, and much as he did in 2019 following a midseason trade from the Raiders to the Cowboys, the veteran wideout seems poised to put together a huge finish to the campaign. The defense is still missing a couple pieces in the middle, but the emergence of linebacker Dorian Williams has covered for those absences — the 2023 third-round pick is fifth in the NFL with 70 tackles in seven games. Buffalo also has the luxury of the biggest division lead in the league, as no one else in the AFC East is better than 2-4.

The Seahawks also lead their division, but at 4-3 they have no margin for error. They're one of only four teams in the league to score at least 20 points every time out (the others? The Commanders, Ravens and Vikings), and first-year OC Ryan Grubb has Geno Smith leading the NFL in pass attempts and passing yards per game, and he's second in both completed air yards and yards after catch, which is a nice combo. That's also lead to a lot of scoring opportunities for Kenneth Walker. While the third-year RB hasn't seen a huge boost in yardage, he's already found the end zone seven times in his five games — his career high in TDs is nine. That mix could shift more to the backfield if DK Metcalf isn't able to go, though. The defense has been below average at best, though, and swapping Jerome Baker out for Ernest Jones probably won't move the needle. This is a team that gave up 20 points to the Jacoby Brissett Patriots, and 29 to the Giants. Slowing down the Bills in any appreciate way might be beyond them, even with the weather helping.

Key Info

BUF injuries: EDGE Von Miller (out, suspension), LB Terrel Bernard (out, ankle), LB Matt Milano (IR, biceps)
SEA injuries: WR DK Metcalf (doubtful, knee), S Rayshawn Jenkins (IR, hand)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
BUF DFS targets: none
SEA DFS targets: Kenneth Walker

BUF DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 15-20 mph wind, 85-95 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

James Cook gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Cooper and Khalil Shakir, and he also runs in a TD. Walker piles up 110 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Smith throws for 230 yards and a second score to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Bills 31-24

Chicago at Washington (+2.5), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Bears come out of their bye well rested and looking to extend a three-game winning streak. Caleb Williams enjoyed his trip to London, and during the winning streak he's produced a 74.1 percent completion rate, 8.5 YPA and 7:1 TD:INT. The Offensive Rookie of the Year race is far from over. D'Andre Swift has also taken off, scoring in all three wins while averaging nearly 135 scrimmage yards a game, and surely there can be no hotter person in the world with the last name Swift associated with the NFL right now. The bye didn't help the Chicago secondary get healthier, but this is still a defense that is top 5 in yards allowed per play, PPG allowed and takeaways while sitting first in QB rating against. Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon can take their time healing up.

While the Commanders haven't yet officially ruled out Jayden Daniels as I write this, the first ever matchup between the top two picks in the 2024 draft is in serious jeopardy. Daniels suffered a rib injury early in last week's rout of the Panthers, leaving Marcus Mariota to rack up great numbers against an overmatched opponent. Mariota was a second overall pick himself in 2015, but the journeyman would be a big downgrade from the rookie phenom. Washington's backfield and receiving corps are mostly healthy, but the team will also be missing starting left tackle Brandon Coleman, which isn't ideal. The defense has benefited from its schedule lately, but the Commanders are still 30th in QB rating against and have been torched by the likes of Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. This should be a good test of whether Williams belongs in that sentence.

Key Info

CHI injuries: S Jaquan Brisker (out, concussion)
WAS injuries: QB Jayden Daniels (questionable, ribs)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CHI DFS targets: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen
WAS DFS targets: none

CHI DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: Marcus Mariota

Weather notes: no weather concerns 

The Scoop

Swift gains 90 yards and a TD. Williams throws for 280 yards and two scores, both to Moore, while Allen tops 100 yards. Brian Robinson leads the WAS backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Mariota throws for less hthan 200 yards, but he does find Noah Brown for one TD and runs in another score. Bears 27-24

Carolina (+10) at Denver, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

It's been a rough week for Andy Dalton. He and his family were involved in a car accident Tuesday, and while nobody else was seriously hurt, the veteran QB sprained his thumb. That could end up costing Dalton his starting job, as Bryce Young will now move back under center, and the 1-6 Panthers really have no reason to switch back as they look ahead to 2025. Mind you, Young is still tracking toward being the biggest bust in draft history, especially once you consider the cost Carolina paid to move up and get him, and who they passed over to select him. At least now he gets another chance to either dispel that impression, or lock it in so the front office can contemplate drafting another quarterback just two years after picking him first overall. His supporting cast remains poor. Neither Adam Thielen nor Diontae Johnson will be available Sunday, and Jonathon Brooks isn't ready to make his NFL debut. Oh, and the defense has surrendered an average of 37 points the last four games. The Panthers went 2-15 last season, and t's tough to imagine where that second win might come from in 2024.

The Broncos, at least, are giving a passable impression of a playoff-caliber team. They've won four of their last five, and they haven't been just squeaking by either — the average score in those victories was about 26-11. Bo Nix has a 5:1 TD:INT in those five games while adding a couple rushing TDs, and even though he's not attempting to stretch the field much, Sean Payton will be quite happy if he just keeps limiting his mistakes. Javonte Williams has also gotten going, scoring his first two TDs of the year in Week 7 and piling up 338 scrimmage yards in the last four games. That's been enough offense to support a defense that ranks first in yards allowed per play, second in sacks and third in PPG allowed, and it should be more than enough here.

Key Info

CAR injuries: QB Andy Dalton (doubtful, thumb), RB Jonathon Brooks (NFI, knee), WR Diontae Johnson (out, ribs), WR Adam Thielen (IR, hamstring), EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, shoulder), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (IR, quadriceps), LB Josey Jewell (questionable, hamstring), S Jordan Fuller (IR, hamstring)
DEN injuries: WR Josh Reynolds (IR, finger)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CAR DFS targets: none
DEN DFS targets: Bo Nix, Javonte Williams, Troy Franklin, Broncos DST

CAR DFS fades: Ja'Tavion Sanders
DEN DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Chuba Hubbard gains 60 yards. Young throws for less than 200 yards, gets sacked six times and picked off twice, one of which Jonah Elliss returns to the house. Williams produces 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Nix throws for 250 yards and two scores, one each to Courtland Sutton and Franklin. Broncos 31-6

Kansas City at Las Vegas (+9.5), o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The champs just keep chugging along, and Kansas City is still hanging on as the league's only unbeaten team. This one should be a breeze — Patrick Mahomes and company have yet to lose a game in Las Vegas, winning four straight since the Raiders' move from Oakland by an average score of about 42-19 — but the last couple slates have been ominously by-the-book, so I'm half-expecting a lot of Week 8 chaos. It'll be Mahomes' first game throwing passes to DeAndre Hopkins, and while I hardly think the 32-year-old is washed, it could take him a bit to get up to speed on the playbook and his new QB's foibles. The offense has been just fine running through Kareem Hunt anyway, as the running back has turned back the clock to collect three TDs and 200 scrimmage yards the last two games. The Kansas City defense is fifth in PPG allowed, but the rest of the unit's numbers suggest it's been merely good, not among the elite. With no one in the AFC West looking like much of a threat, DC Steve Spagnuolo has a couple months to figure it out.

The Raiders are a mess. They've lost three in a row and haven't scored more than 20 points in a game since they faced the Panthers in Week 3. Gardner Minshew is back under center with Aidan O'Connell hurt, but it hasn't made much difference who was running the show. In fact, there's been a lot of deck-chair shuffling this season in Vegas this season. Coming out of camp, Zamir White was the lead back, and Davante Adams the top target for his QB. Now Alexander Mattison is the RB1, and Brock Bowers is the only dangerous pass-catcher. Maybe by late November, it'll be Dylan Laube and Tre Tucker.

Key Info

KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (IR, lower leg), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (out, hamstring)
LV injuries: QB Aidan O'Connell (IR, thumb), WR Jakobi Meyers (questionable, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
KC DFS targets: Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce
LV DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: DJ Turner, Raiders DST

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Hunt scoops up 120 combined yards and a TD. Mahomes throws for 280 yards and three scores, one each to Hopkins, Worthy and Kelce. Mattison gets held to 50 yards. Minshew throws for less than 200 yards but does find Bowers for a touchdown. Kansas City 34-10

SUNDAY NIGHT

Dallas (+4.5) at San Francisco, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

The Cowboys got their bye in the nick of time. It's not that players like Micah Parsons got healthy; this team got its collective butts kicked three times in its first six games, and by teams they were either supposed to be better than (the Saints) or at least competitive with (the Ravens and Lions). They needed a time out. There's a lot of targets for finger-pointing, from Jerry Jones' horrific cap mismanagement to a bunch of guys on defense caught between ex-DC Dan Quinn's aggressive, speed-based philosophy and new DC Mike Zimmer's more physical, grinding approach. The bottom line, though, is that this team doesn't really know who it is, or what it does well, and that's spelled doom so far. Adding Dalvin Cook to the backfield isn't going to change anyway (but if it does, you have to ask why it took until Week 8 to get him off the practice squad ...). Maybe Mike McCarthy used the time off to re-focus the team, but if Dallas comes out flat again, let the Belichick rumors start up in earnest.

The 49ers might be in worse shape, though, both physically and mentally. Brock Purdy has a 4:5 TD:INT and 57.4 percent completion rate the last three games. Christian McCaffrey won't be back until Week 10, maybe. And now both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel have gone down, the former for the rest of the season. Technically, Deebo could suit up Sunday, but if he plays seven days after being hospitalized by pneumonia, it'll be pretty incredible. Oh, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle are banged up too. Even the special teams has been rough — the Niners are one of the first three teams to give up a kickoff return TD under the new rules. This is turning into one of those "anything that can go wrong will go wrong" seasons for San Francisco, but it's still just one game back of the NFC West lead, so all hope is not yet lost. All things considered, if they can get to their bye at 4-4 with a win, the first half will have to be viewed as a success.

Key Info

DAL injuries: WR Brandin Cooks (IR, knee), EDGE Micah Parsons (out, ankle), EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, shoulder), CB DaRon Bland (IR, foot)
SF injuries: RB Christian McCaffrey (IR, Achilles), WR Brandon Aiyuk (IR, knee), WR Deebo Samuel (questionable, illness), WR Jauan Jennings (out, hip), TE George Kittle (questionable, foot), K Jake Moody (out, ankle), LB Dre Greenlaw (PUP, Achilles), S Talanoa Hufanga (IR, wrist)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DAL DFS targets: Jalen Tolbert
SF DFS targets: Jordan Mason

DAL DFS fades: CeeDee Lamb
SF DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Rico Dowdle leads the DAL backfield with 60 yards. Dak Prescott throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting Jake Ferguson and Tolbert. Mason reels off 130 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Purdy throws for 220 yards and a score to Ronnie Bell. 49ers 24-20 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Minnesota at L.A. Rams (+3), o/u 48.0 - Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Vikings saw their perfect record slip away in the final minutes last week, as the offense went three and out with a one-point lead before the defense failed to stop Jared Goff's final drive. Hey, it happens. Minnesota still ranks as one of the best teams in the league by just about any measure, and it's not like it's had a cushy schedule — the Giants are the only team the Vikes have beaten that seems completely out of the playoff picture (though you have to squint to make out the Jets). Sam Darnold's thrown only one TD pass in his last two games against three turnovers, but he wasn't terrible against Detroit, completing 81.5 percent of his passes with a 9.6 YPA. He's still on track for the best season of his career, and a big offseason payday from whatever franchise needs a QB and can't get one they like in the draft. T.J. Hockenson has a chance of making his 2024 debut Thursday (though Week 9 might be more likely as Minnesota can wait until Friday to activate him), and defenses already have enough to worry about between Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones. DC Brian Flores' defense has been the best unit in the league for fantasy purposes, ranking second in takeaways and third in sacks while scoring three TDs, including Ivan Pace's fumble return to the house last week. About the only thing the Vikes are missing is a dangerous return man, but given how much wheeling and dealing has been going on, that seems like something the team could address the next couple weeks if it really wanted to.

The Rams are 2-4 and seem open to the idea of trading more veterans, including Cooper Kupp, so things may not get a lot better from here. The AFC West still seems winnable, though, and both Kupp and Puka Nacua are on the verge of returning from injuries, so how the offense looks Thursday might ultimately determine whether the fire sale is on. Matthew Stafford needs all the help he can get — the 36-year-old has managed only three TDs passes in six games, and his 7.0 YPA looks a lot like it did in 2022, when Kupp missed half the year after blowing out his ACL. Kyren Williams has been the one carrying the scoring load, racking up nine touchdowns while getting into the end zone in every game, but he's also on pace for 368 touches — a mark that would not just be a career high by more than 100, it would have led the NFL in 2023. Blake Corum has gotten a trickle of work in the backfield, but the rookie might want to start preparing for a bigger role. The Rams' defense has held four consecutive opponents to 24 points or fewer, not bad considering the team has faced the Niners, Bears and Packers during that stretch, but the unit is still bottom seven in yards allowed per play and points allowed per game. It feels like like a real turnaround for DC Chris Shula's crew and more like a bubble that could burst at any time.

Key Info

MIN injuries: TE T.J. Hockenson (PUP, knee), LB Blake Cashman (out, toe)
LAR injuries: WR Puka Nacua (IR, knee), WR Jordan Whittington (out, shoulder), TE Tyler Higbee (PUP, knee), LB Troy Reeder (out, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIN DFS targets: Aaron Jones, Johnny Mundt/T.J. Hockenson, Vikings DST
LAR DFS targets: none

MIN DFS fades: none
LAR DFS fades: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Jones piles up 130 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Darnold throws for 280 yards and three TDs, hitting Addison, Jefferson and Mundt. Williams gets held out of the end zone for the first time this year but does gain 70 combined yards. Stafford throws for 230 yards and two scores, finding Kupp and Tutu Atwell. Vikings 34-20

Last week's record: 11-4, 10-5 ATS, 6-9 o/u
2024 record: 64-43, 51-54-2 ATS, 55-52 o/u