NFL Game Previews: Cowboys-Buccaneers Wild-Card Matchup

Dallas at Tampa Bay (+2.5), o/u 45.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

This game was already shaping up to be potentially the most interesting of the opening weekend, but the Cowboys' dumpster fire of a Week 18 performance suddenly puts everything anyone thought they knew about the team in question. It's hard to reconcile their 12-win campaign with the team that took the field against Washington ostensibly playing to win and maybe having a shot at a first-round bye. Dak Prescott's second-half ball security issues hit their nadir when he threw what should have been a pick-six to Kendall Fuller that the cornerback dropped, only to give Fuller his trip to the end zone on the very next play. Like, dude. Prescott's been intercepted in seven consecutive games, posting a 15:11 TD:INT over that stretch, and while that didn't stop the Cowboys from winning five of those games or finishing fourth in PPG and tied for fifth in PPG allowed, it doesn't seem like a formula for winning playoffs games.

Especially not playoff games against the GOAT. Tom Brady hasn't looked like Tom Brady for most of this season, but his 432 passing yards and three TDs to Mike Evans in the NFC South-clinching game against the Panthers in Week 17 certainly seemed pretty vintage. The starters got most of last week off to rest, so the question coming into this one is whether those numbers represented Brady flipping the switch, or just a dead-cat bounce on a legendary career. There's also no certainly that even if he is back in form, he'll get much help. Tampa Bay's offensive line is still short some starters, though the rag-tag unit started to gel a bit down the stretch, and a Week 16 performance against the sad-sack Cards aside, Leonard Fournette hasn't done much of note since November. The Bucs won 19-3 when these teams met in Week 1, but that was an eternity ago in NFL terms, and more recent, and relevant, history says Tampa coughed up 69 points in back-to-back games against Cincy and San Francisco in December. Dallas is absolutely a team capable of putting up those kinds of points, assuming the team got whatever that was last week out of its system.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
TB injuries: WR Evans (questionable, illness), WR Julio Jones (questionable, knee)

DAL DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: Chris Godwin $6,400 DK / $7,200 FD (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

DAL DFS fades: none
TB DFS fades: Russell Gage $3,800 DK / $5,400 FD (DAL second in DVOA vs. WR3), Cade Otton $2,800 DK / $4,700 FD (DAL fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: DAL first in red-zone conversions at 71.4 percent; TB 26th in red-zone defense at 62.5 percent

Weather notes: no weather-related concerns

The Scoop: Ezekiel Elliott leads the DAL backfield with 70 yards and a TD, while Tony Pollard adds 60 yards. Prescott throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz while only getting picked off once. Fournette leads the TB backfield with 60 yards. Brady throws for 280 yards and three scores, hitting Godwin (who tops 100 yards) twice and Evans once. Mike McCarthy takes the hint from Dan Campbell, and Prescott converts a fourth down late in the fourth quarter to seal the game rather than Dallas kicking a field goal and giving Brady one more shot. Cowboys 27-24

Miami (+13) at Buffalo, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Dolphins certainly had a fun start to the season, didn't they? Tua Tagovailoa slinging the ball to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Mike McDaniel looking like an offensive genius, then that smoke-and-mirrors win over the Bills in Week 3 ... which turned out to be the beginning of the end of their run looking like a legit contender. Tua missed four games the rest of the way with multiple concussions, and other than the three-game stint in the middle of the season that included matchups with two of the most generous secondaries in the league, he never really seemed the same. The Dolphins somehow managed to drop out of the top 10 in scoring by the end of the season, and their 11-6 win over the Jets in Week 18 snapped a five-game losing skid and barely got them into the final wild-card spot in the AFC. Tagovailoa's still out, and even Teddy Bridgewater isn't looking likely to be healthy, so Miami will have to ride into Round 3 against Buffalo with rookie Skylar Thompson under center. Thompson was a seventh-round pick, but he's no Brock Purdy, and during the four regular-season games in which he saw significant action, he managed a 1:2 TD:INT and a 5.2 YPA while completing 59.2 percent of his passes. Hill and Waddle are always capable of doing damage after the catch, but their QB has to get them the ball first, and there's no guarantee Thompson will be able to do that consistently.

The Bills head into the postseason having won seven consecutive games that got completed, and if that wasn't enough positive energy for you, Damar Hamlin's awesome recovery should strap a rocket to the entire roster's emotional state. (Just announced as I write this: if Buffalo does end up meeting Kansas City, the game will be played in Atlanta, which seems about as neutral as you can get for an AFC championship game.) They got some revenge against Miami for the earlier loss by beating them 32-29 in Week 15 as part of that winning streak, but even that game was closer than it should have been, which might be about the only real selling point for taking the points in this one. Josh Allen was on fire down the stretch, tossing nine TDs and running in one more over the final three contests (the ones that went in the books, anyway), and his MVP case this season includes becoming the NFL's all-time leader in total touchdowns through a QB's first five seasons, passing Dan Marino. The Bills already have plenty of weapons around Allen, so it feels almost unfair when someone like Nyheim Hines runs back two kickoffs for scores as he did last week. Nonetheless, they finished the year as one of only two teams in the top five in both points per game and points per game allowed, winding up second in both categories (K.C. was first on the offensive side, and San Francisco on the defensive side). I'll leave the identity of the other until later in the article — it's probably not who you think.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: QB Tagovailoa (out, concussion), QB Bridgewater (questionable, finger), RB Raheem Mostert (questionable, thumb), RB Jeff Wilson (questionable, illness), WR Waddle (questionable, ankle)
BUF injuries: WR Isaiah McKenzie (questionable, hamstring)

MIA DFS targets: Hill $7,900 DK / $8,500 FD (BUF 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
BUF DFS targets: Dawson Knox $4,000 DK / $5,600 FD (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

MIA DFS fades: Mike Gesicki $3,200 DK / $4,900 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. TE)
BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA 24th in third-down conversions at 36.2 percent; BUF seventh in third-down defense at 37.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 BUF, average score 33-19 BUF, average margin of victory 14 points. BUF has won six straight meetings at Highmark Stadium by an average score of 35-20

Weather notes: temperature in the high 20s

The Scoop: Wilson leads the MIA backfield with 70 yards and a score. Thompson throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice, one of which Tre'Davious White returns to the house. Devin Singletary gains 80 yards, while James Cook adds 60. Allen throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns, finding Knox and Stefon Diggs while running for 40 yards and a TD. Bills 31-7

N.Y. Giants (+3) at Minnesota, o/u 48 – Sunday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Giants don't come into this one with a lot of momentum. They've gone 2-3-1 since the beginning of December, with the wins coming against the Commanders and the Colts, and they've already lost once in Minnesota this season, a 27-24 nailbiter that ended on a Greg Joseph 61-yard field goal as time expired. Wait, I already said it was a Vikings-Giants game. Nailbiter was redundant. Between them, these two teams played in 23 games decided by a single score, and no I didn't count their meeting twice. The Giants went 8-4-1 in those games, while the Vikings went an impossible 11-0. Other than Minnesota's good luck, the two teams were remarkably similar statistically. New York finished with a minus-6 point differential; Minny was minus-3. The Giants wound up 25th in net yards per play at -0.4363; I went to four decimals because the Vikings were 26th at -0.4386. There's basically no reason to think this game won't be close too. Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley and a number of other starters got last week off for the Giants, so they should be well-rested, and Jones especially earned it with a career season that might have been just enough to make the front office think they don't need to go QB-hunting in the offseason. Even so, he threw only 15 TDs in 16 games (adding seven more on the ground) and had a 6.8 YPA, so Pro Bowl material he ain't. The offense will lean heavily on Saquon, who racked up 133 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in the first meeting.

How do you win 11 straight one-score games? I can't wrap my head around it. Kevin O'Connell isn't really in the Coach of the Year race — Nick Siranni and Kyle Shanahan are the favorites, while Brian Daboll and Dan Campbell got way more good press — but maybe he should be, as something kept getting this team over the hump at crunch time. Minnesota won three of its last four even with the NFC North title basically sewn up, though the wins didn't come against the strongest competition (no offense Giants, but you look like the '72 Dolphins compared to the Colts) and their New Year's Day disaster in Lambeau when they had a chance to eliminate the Packers was pretty ugly. Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson etc. didn't take all of last week off against the Bears but stayed on the bench after halftime, and if center Garrett Bradbury and safety Harrison Smith are back in the lineup Sunday, the Vikings will arguably be the healthiest team in action this weekend.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: WR Sterling Shepard (IR, knee), WR Wan'Dale Robinson (IR, knee)
MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

NYG DFS targets: Jones $5,600 DK / $7,400 FD (MIN 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed), Isaiah Hodgins $4,100 DK / $6,400 FD (MIN 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
MIN DFS targets: Dalvin Cook $7,000 DK / $7,800 FD (NYG 32nd in rushing DVOA, 31st in YPC allowed), T.J. Hockenson $5,1000 DK / $7,000 FD (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. TE)

NYG DFS fades: none
MIN DFS fades: Adam Thielen $4,400 DK / $6,300 FD (NYG third in DVOA vs. WR2), K.J. Osborn $4,500 DK / $6,100 FD (NYG sixth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: NYG 22nd in third-down conversions at 36.8 percent; MIN t-11th in third-down defense at 38.1 percent

The Scoop: Barkley racks up 130 yards and two touchdowns. Jones throws for 260 yards and a score to Hodgins. Cook delivers 120 yards and a TD of his own. Cousins throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Hockenson twice and Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) once. Vikings 28-27

Baltimore (+8) at Cincinnati, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Things look pretty bleak for the Ravens. They lost three of four to close out the regular season, only beating the Falcons, and last week's loss to the Bengals cost them their coin-flip shot at hosting this game. Not that it seems like it would matter where the game would be played. Lamar Jackson remains out and hasn't practiced in more than a month, and backup Tyler Huntley's also isn't guaranteed to suit up Sunday. If Huntley can't go, undrafted rookie Anthony Brown would make his second career start. In the first — last week's loss to Cincy — he threw two picks and completed less than 50 percent of his passes. Huntley's not great, but he's not that bad. J.K. Dobbins and Mark Andrews were among the players who got last week off, and Dobbins especially could see a heavy workload with Gus Edwards not 100 percent healthy and Baltimore trying to do whatever it can to keep Joe Burrow off the field. The Ravens did win the first meeting in this rivalry this season, 19-17 back in Week 5, but that was with Jackson healthy and the Bengals' offensive line still trying to get its act together.

I'm still not entirely sure if the league has neutral-site plans for a divisional round matchup between the Bengals and Bills — had Cincy won that Monday nighter, they'd be the No. 2 seed, not Buffalo — but I guess we'll find out if we get there. Maybe they'll do another coin flip. The AFC North champs are the hottest team in their conference, winning eight consecutive games (aside from, well, that one) by an average score of 29-20. The defense has been underrated all season, and wound up tied for fifth in points per game allowed (but nope, the answer to the question above isn't them) and actually leading the league in QB rating against, for what that's worth. Joe Burrow wasn't quite as efficient as he was in 2021, but he still set career highs with 35 passing TDs and 40 total TDs, making him one of only three quarterbacks to reach that mark this season (Patrick Mahomes had 45 and Josh Allen had 42, if you want to know why those are the three best teams in the AFC.) Between them, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have six TDs and three 100-yard performances in five games since the beginning of December, and if the Ravens' secondary can't contain them, it's hard to see how the Baltimore offense can possibly keep pace.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: QB Jackson (questionable, knee), QB Huntley (questionable, shoulder), RB Edwards (questionable, concussion), WR Rashod Bateman (IR, foot), WR Devin Duvernay (IR, foot)
CIN injuries: WR Higgins (questionable, illness)

BAL DFS targets: Sammy Watkins $3,300 DK / $5,200 FD (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)
CIN DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: Joe Mixon $6,800 DK / $7,900 FD (BAL third in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)

Key stat: BAL t-29th in red-zone conversions at 45.8 percent; CIN t-9th in red-zone defense at 52.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 BAL, average score 26-22 BAL, average margin of victory 17 points. CIN has won three of the last four meetings, with those games having an average score of 32-18 CIN

Weather notes: temperature in the low 30s

The Scoop: Dobbins picks up 90 yards. Huntley starts and throws for less than 200 yards. Mixon grinds up 70 yards. Burrow throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, finding Chase (who tops 100 yards) twice and Higgins once. Bengals 24-6

Seattle (+9.5) at San Francisco, o/u 42.5 – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Thank you, Detroit. The Lions' win at Lambeau Field in the final game of the regular season put the Seahawks into the playoffs, but more important, it put Geno Smith into the playoffs. The comeback story of the year will make his first career postseason start at age 32, nearly a decade after he heard his name called in the second round of the 2013 draft. His numbers were extraordinary — Smith led the NFL with a 69.8 percent completion rate, and his 30 passing TDs almost doubled his career total — but he did fade down the stretch, failing to reach 240 passing yards or a 7.0 YPA in any of his last four games with a 5:3 TD:INT. That skid started in Week 15 against the 49ers too, which doesn't bode well for Seattle, and were it not for Miami's QB issues, the 'Hawks would be the biggest underdog among the wild-card teams. Still, Seattle was one of only three teams to keep San Francisco within a single score during the Niners' 10-game winning streak, which counts for something, I guess. (The other two were the Chargers in Week 10 and the Raiders in Week 17, in the Jarrett Stidham game.) Kenneth Walker has also reeled off three consecutive games with more than 100 rushing yards despite a nagging ankle issue, and even the Niners' league-best run defense gave up 79 scrimmage yards to the rookie in that Week 15 clash. What chance the Seahawks have at an upset likely comes down to Geno's magic lasting at least one more week, though.

Did I mention the 10 straight wins? The Niners head into the playoffs as unquestionably the hottest team in the league, scoring 30 or more points in three straight and five of the last six while allowing 17 or less in eight of those victories. Miraculous as Geno's comeback season has been, it might actually pale in comparison to what Brock Purdy has done since Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt. Six consecutive games with multiple touchdown passes and five straight starts with an 8.0 YPA or higher and a completion rate north of 60 percent would be outstanding numbers for a rookie QB taken at the top of the first round, much less one taken with the absolute last pick in the draft. Purdy's certainly benefited from not having to carry the team — Christian McCaffrey and the defense can do that just fine — but he's been far more than just a bus driver, and if the 23-year-old out of Iowa State leads San Francisco on a deep playoff run or even to the Super Bowl, Kyle Shanahan could have a tough choice to make next year when Trey Lance is healthy. (Or maybe not so tough — Lance hasn't really had a chance to do much yet in his career.) Let's not get ahead of ourselves, though. First Purdy has to take care of business against a Seattle defense he had little trouble against in their first meeting, tossing 28-yard and 54-yard TDs to a rampaging George Kittle.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Walker (questionable, ankle), RB DeeJay Dallas (questionable, ankle), WR Marquise Goodwin (IR, shoulder), TE Noah Fant (questionable, knee)
SF injuries: QB Garoppolo (out, foot), QB Lance (IR, ankle), RB McCaffrey (questionable, knee)

SEA DFS targets: Cade Johnson $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (SF 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
SF DFS targets: McCaffrey $8,900 DK / $9,800 FD (SEA 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Brandon Aiyuk $5,800 DK / $6,700 FD (SEA 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

SEA DFS fades: Walker $6,100 DK / $6,600 FD (SF second in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed), DK Metcalf $6,200 DK / $7,100 FD (SF fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)
SF DFS fades: Jauan Jennings $3,300 DK / $5,300 FD (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: SF sixth in third-down conversions at 45.0 percent; SEA 27th in third-down defense at 42.3 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 SEA, average score 26-23 SEA, average margin of victory nine points. The last three season series have been sweeps, with SF winning both 2022 meetings by an average score of 24-10

Weather notes: 11-13 mph wind, 75-85 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Walker manages 60 scrimmage yards. Smith throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding Johnson and Tyler Lockett. McCaffrey glides for 120 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Purdy throws for 220 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting Kittle and Aiyuk. 49ers 28-20

L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville (+2), o/u 47.5
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

While the Chargers came up short in Week 18 against the Broncos, the Ravens' loss ensured the Bolts would keep the No. 5 seed in the AFC and avoid a first-round matchup with any of the conference's Big Three (Buffalo, K.C. or Cincy.) The franchise also recorded its second season with double-digit wins in the last 13 years, which isn't nothing. Coach Brandon Staley does seem to have the team pointed in the right direction, even if they're still prone to Chargersing things up on occasion. They won four straight before the Denver game, and Justin Herbert seems to have come out of his late-season fade, tossing two TDs in each of the team's last two games without an INT. Austin Ekeler also got held out of the end zone in Week 18, which might be why they lost — he racked up six rushing touchdowns in the four wins, en route to a career-high 13 on the season. Herbert having an intact receiving corps didn't last long, though — Mike Williams bruised his back against the Broncos, making him questionable for Saturday. On the bright side, if the Bolts can get to the divisional round, left tackle Rashawn Slater might be ready to protect Herbert's blind side again.

Winners of five straight to close out the regular season, the Jaguars locked up the AFC South title and secured a winning record by beating the Titans in their finale on a fumble return to the house by the other Josh Allen. Trevor Lawrence gets all the headlines, of course, as he plays through a toe injury, but it's the young defense that stood up down the stretch, allowing just 22 total points over its final three games while scoring TWO game-winning touchdowns in the final four weeks (including Rayshawn Jenkins' INT return in OT against the Cowboys). The last time the franchise had a defense this opportunistic, Telvin Smith, Jalen Ramsey and Calais Campbell nearly led it to a Super Bowl. Granted, those three stingy games came against Zach Wilson, Davis Mills and Joshua Dobbs, not Justin Herbert, but still. Lawrence did toss four touchdowns against Dallas, but he's looked less than 100 percent healthy since then, posting just a 1:1 TD:INT in the last three games, though he did run for a score against the Jets. Leaning on Travis Etienne isn't the worst idea against a Chargers run defense that's among the league's worst, as per usual, but if the Jags are going to make any kind of noise in the postseason, they'll probably need more from Lawrence.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: WR Williams (questionable, back)
JAC injuries: QB Lawrence (questionable, toe), WR Calvin Ridley (out, suspension)

LAC DFS targets: Gerald Everett $3,900 DK / $5,600 FD (JAC 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
JAC DFS targets: Etienne $6,300 DK / $7,100 FD (LAC 29th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed)

LAC DFS fades: none
JAC DFS fades: Zay Jones $4,300 DK / $6,300 FD (LAC second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: JAC ninth in net yards per play at 0.24; LAC 28th at -0.58

Weather notes: no weather-related concerns

The Scoop: Ekeler gains 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Herbert throws for 250 yards and a TD to Keenan Allen. Etienne answers back with 120 scrimmage yards and a score. Lawrence throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, finding Evan Engram and Christian Kirk. Jaguars 24-23

Last week's record: 10-6, 7-9 ATS, 6-10 o/u
2022 regular-season record: 156-113-2, 122-142-7 ATS, 140-128-3 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 1444-882-9, 1127-1134-74 ATS, 875-915-33 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)