NFL Game Previews: Week 10 Matchups

Washington (+10.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 44
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Maybe Taylor Heinicke isn't a good luck charm after all. The Commanders coughed up a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter last week against the Vikings, and they head into this one at 4-5 and beginning to lose sight of the rest of the NFC East. The offense just doesn't seem to have the horses to stay in the race, no matter who's under center, and Washington has scored more than 17 points in a game only once since Week 2. Only some heroic efforts by the undermanned defense have kept them in games, but it's tough to keep up morale when you know giving up 20 points could mean doom. There's no obvious spot for more points to come from, though. The backfield duo remains unimpressive, and Terry McLaurin's still the only consistent downfield threat. Other players have occasionally flashed some upside, but neither Heinicke nor Carson Wentz has been able to draw more than those flashes out of the likes of Curtis Samuel or Jahan Dotson.

If the Eagles are going to finally lose one in 2022, it's tough to imagine it coming in this spot. Aside from how dominant Philly's looked this season, the team's dominance over Washington goes back a lot longer. Miles Sanders has scored in three straight games, A.J. Brown's scored five times in those three games, Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith... Jalen Hurts has too many options, and too much time to find them working behind one of the most stable, strong offensive lines in the league. That's even before you get to the defense, which has held opponents to 17 points or less in six of the last seven games. Yeah, it's chaos season, and a divisional rivalry, but the Commanders even keeping this one close would feel more like someone tampering with reality than merely abnormal NFL unpredictableness.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: QB Wentz (IR, finger), RB J.D. McKissic (out, neck), LG Andrew Norwell (questionable, groin), C Wes Schweitzer (IR, concussion), C Chase Roullier (IR, knee), C Tyler Larsen (questionable, back), DE Chase Young (PUP-R, knee), LB Cole Holcomb (out, foot) 
PHI injuries: DE Derek Barnett (IR, knee), CB Avonte Maddox (out, hamstring)

WAS DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: Smith $6,100 DK / $6,300 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Quez Watkins $3,500 DK / $5,000 FD (WAS 28th in DVOA vs. WR3), Eagles DST $3,700 DK / $4,900 FD (first in takeaways, WAS 29th in sacks allowed)

WAS DFS fades: Heinicke $5,300 DK / $6,800 FD (PHI second in passing DVOA, third in passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed), McLaurin $5,900 DK / $6,900 FD (PHI second in DVOA vs. WR1), Samuel $5,100 DK / $6,100 FD (PHI first in DVOA vs. WR2)
PHI DFS fades: Sanders $6,900 DK / $7,200 FD (WAS second in rushing DVOA, t-2nd in rushing TDs allowed), Goedert $5,500 DK / $6,800 FD (WAS fourth in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: WAS 26th in third-do0wn conversions at 34.2 percent; PHI 12th in third-down defense at 37.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 PHI, average score 26-18 PHI, average margin of victory 11 points. WAS hasn't scored more than 20 points in four straight meetings

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Antonio Gibson leads the WAS backfield with 60 combined yards. Heinicke throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to McLaurin. Sanders gains 70 yards. Hurts throws for 290 yards and three TDs, one each to Watkins, Brown and Smith (with the latter topping 100 yards) while also running in a score of his own. T.J. Edwards returns a Heinicke fumble to the house. Eagles 35-10

Seattle (+2.5) vs. Tampa Bay in Munich, o/u 44.5
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EST

The NFL's first ever regular-season game in Germany winds up being between two division leaders, which has to have London fans muttering into their pints given all the trash matchups they've been sent over the years. The Seahawks have earned their spot atop the NFC West with a 6-3 record and a four-game winning streak all by 10 points or more, though it has to be noted they don't exactly have any wins over elite opponents on their resume — the Giants and Chargers are as good as it gets. Geno Smith continues to put up outstanding numbers, as does Kenneth Walker, and the Seattle offense has been held to less than 27 points only once in the last six weeks. The defense also seems to have turned a corner, not giving up more than 23 points during the win streak, though again the level of competition has to be taken into account. With their bye still coming next week to heal any bumps and bruises, and a relatively easy stretch run aside from back-to-back games against the Niners and Kansas City in Weeks 15-16, Seattle seems in good shape for a playoff spot even if San Francisco chases them down.

Yeah, sure, the Bucs downed the Rams last week, but it's wildly optimistic to read anything more into that than the fact that when two bad teams play, only one can lose. Tampa Bay's offense was terrible for 59 minutes or so until Tom Brady strung together a game-winning drive against a tired, disjointed defense, and while it was Brady's NFL-record 55th winning drive, it could well end up being his last. His 4.8 YPA last week was his lowest of the year, and he's 25th in intended air yards per attempt this year after finishing first and ninth in that metric during his first two seasons with Tampa Bay. Really, it's kind of amazing watching the last representatives of an entire generation of quarterbacks all fall off the cliff together on their way to the Hall of Fame. Brady's fading fast, Aaron Rodgers isn't doing any better, and Matt Ryan's already lost his job. (Heck, even the mid-30s guys like Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson are looking old and decrepit. Playing QB is suddenly a young man's game again.) The Bucs do sit in first in the NFC South thanks to a tiebreaker win over the Falcons, but they don't look like a team that's going to pull away down the stretch, nor like one that'll make any noise in the playoffs if they even get there.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RB Rashaad Penny (IR, ankle), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable, groin), S Jamal Adams (IR, knee)
TB injuries: WR Russell Gage (out, hamstring), LG Aaron Stinnie (IR, knee), LG Luke Goedeke (out, foot), C Ryan Jensen (IR, knee), EDGE Shaquil Barrett (IR, Achilles), S Logan Ryan (IR, foot)

SEA DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: none

SEA DFS fades: Smith $6,200 DK / $7,300 FD (TB fifth in passing yards per game allowed, fifth in YPA allowed), Goodwin $3,700 DK / $5,100 FD and Dee Eskridge $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (TB fifth in DVOA vs. WR3)
TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA is fifth in third-down conversions at 45.8 percent; TB is 18th in third-down defense at 40.3 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Walker gains 90 yards and a touchdown. Smith throws for 230 yards and two TDs, hitting Tyler Lockett and Will Dissly. Leonard Fournette manages 60 yards and a score. Brady throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Cade Otton and Evans, but Julio Jones coughs up a fumble that Tariq Woolen returns to the house. Seahawks 28-24

Minnesota (+3.5) at Buffalo, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

This really does feel like the Vikings' year, doesn't it? They're won six consecutive games — all by a single score, which in itself flies in the face of the franchise's history after they went 6-9 in one-score games in 2021 — while the rest of the NFC North has decided to take the year off, and now they get to face a Super Bowl-quality Bills team when Josh Allen isn't 100 percent healthy and might not even play. It would actually be the third time this season Minnesota's ducked the other team's No. 1 QB if that happens, as they got the Saints for Andy Dalton's first start of the year and the Dolphins for Teddy Bridgewater's last. Kirk Cousins has thrown multiple TDs in three consecutive games, but Minnesota really hasn't needed to rely on him. Dalvin Cook has found the end zone in four straight, while T.J. Hockenson stepped right into the lineup and became Cousins' second-best option after Justin Jefferson, who incidentally is averaging nearly 125 receiving yards in the last five games. The defense hasn't exactly been stingy but has generated at least one takeaway in every game, which isn't nothing. That consistency has the Vikings tied for third in the league in turnover differential with the Cowboys at plus-6, behind only the Ravens (plus-7) and the ridiculous Eagles (plus-15). Nobody else is over plus-3.

You know that moment in a classic western before the big gunfight, when the entire town is completely silent and still aside from ticking clocks, and the air is thick with tension as everyone holds their breaths waiting for the first shot to ring out? I imagine that's the entire city of Buffalo right now. Allen's elbow injury doesn't seem serious, but any issue with a QB's throwing arm can't be waved off, and as I write this he hasn't practiced this week. Last week's loss to the Jets was a bit of a gut punch, as like the loss to the Dolphins earlier in the year it felt like a game the Bills probably should have won, they just couldn't find a way to close it out, but it wasn't the end of the world even though every team in the AFC East now has either five or six wins. Even if Case Keenum starts this one, the Buffalo defense is good enough to keep the pressure off him, especially with the team getting Tre'Davious White back this week to reinforce a banged-up secondary. Don't forget to breathe, Buffalonians.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: TE Irv Smith (IR, ankle), CB Cameron Dantzler (out, ankle), S Lewis Cine (IR, leg)
BUF injuries: QB Allen (questionable, elbow), LB Tremaine Edmunds (questionable, groin), CB Kaiir Elam (doubtful, ankle), S Micah Hyde (IR, neck), S Jordan Poyer (out, elbow)

MIN DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: Allen $8,600 DK / $9,200 FD or Keenum $5,000 DK / $6,100 FD (MIN 27th in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed), Stefon Diggs $8,300 DK / $9,100 FD (MIN 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

MIN DFS fades: Thielen $5,400 DK / $5,900 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR2), Hockenson $5,300 DK / $6,000 FD (BUF third in DVOA vs. TE)
BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF 19th in red-zone conversions at 53.6 percent; MIN is 32nd in red-zone defense at 78.9 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the low 30s, 12-13 mph wind, 30-40 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Cook slides for 80 yards and a TD. Cousins throws for 240 yards and a score to Jefferson. Devin Singletary leads the BUF backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown, while Nyheim Hines adds 60 combined yards and a receiving score. Keenum starts and throws for 200 yards and a second TD to Diggs. Bills 24-17

Detroit (+3) at Chicago, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

A titanic struggle that could decide who winds up in the basement in the NFC North, the Lions come into this one having been gifted a win as an early Christmas present by Aaron Rodgers. Detroit's early season offensive fireworks have completely fizzled, and the team's failed to score more than 15 points in three of their last four games. Injuries have had a lot to do with that swoon — D'Andre Swift can't seem to stay healthy, playing only nine snaps last week, while Amon-Ra St. Brown has no one to take defensive attention away from him now that T.J. Hockenson is a Viking. As a result, Jared Goff's gone from an 11:3 TD:INT and more than 280 passing yards a game through the season's first four games to a 3:4 TD:INT and less than 230 yards a game in the last four games. The defense held an opponent to less than 24 points for the first time in 2022 last week, but three goal-line INTs will do that, and other QBs won't be as generous.

In late October, the Bears turned into the team the Lions were in September. The last three games, Chicago averaged 31.3 points a game, with two coming against top-shelf defenses in the Patriots and Cowboys. That's amazing! Unfortunately, the defense has allowed 32.7 points a game. That's real bad! The Bears have dropped five of six, and while the Justin Fields bandwagon is filling up rapidly, I'm still not entirely sure why. His "hot streak" involved four consecutive games with less than 200 passing yards, a 61.6 percent completion rate and a 6.5 YPA. Those numbers are only good compared to the really awful stats he put up in his first 17 NFL games. Yes, from a fantasy perspective his production as a runner makes him a significant asset, but from a real-life perspective, I'm not going to anoint him the next Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen just because he threw multiple TDs in back-to-back games — for the first time in his career, I might add. The timing of the front office gutting the defense by shipping out Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn doesn't suggest they saw Fields' development suddenly spiking either, or are convinced it's legit. In fact, if Chicago winds up in position to draft one of the top QBs in next year's draft (they would hold the ninth overall pick if the season had ended after Week 9), I can see Fields getting cashed in on the thinking his value might be at its peak. Or maybe he keeps improving over the second half and I look dumb for saying this. Wouldn't be the first time.

The Skinny

DET injuries: WR Josh Reynolds (out, back), WR DJ Chark (IR, ankle), WR Jameson Williams (NFI-R, knee), WR Quintez Cephus (IR, foot), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (IR, back), RG Tommy Kraemer (IR, back), DE Romeo Okwara (PUP-R, Achilles), S Tracy Walker (IR, Achilles), S Kerby Joseph (questionable, concussion)
CHI injuries: C Lucas Patrick (IR, toe), RG Teven Jenkins (questionable, hip), CB Jaylon Johnson (questionable, oblique)

DET DFS targets: Goff $5,500 DK / $7,200 FD (CHI 30th in passing DVOA, 28th in YPA allowed), Swift $6,400 DK / $6,800 FD and Jamaal Williams $5,900 DK / $7,400 FD (CHI 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)
CHI DFS targets: Fields $6,500 DK / $8,300 FD (DET 29th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed, 29th in rushing yards allowed to QB), David Montgomery $6,000 DK / $6,700 FD and Khalil Herbert $5,900 DK / $5,800 FD (DET 31st in rushing yards per game, 28th in YPC allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed), Chase Claypool $4,800 DK / $5,800 FD (DET 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)

DET DFS fades: none
CHI DFS fades: none

Key stat: CHI 10th in third-down conversions at 43.4 percent; DET 32nd in third-down defense at 51.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 CHI, average score 23-20 CHI, average margin of victory six points. Six of the last seven meetings have been decided by a single score, with an average score of 24-19 for the victor.

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Swift plays, but Williams leads the DET backfield with 90 yards and a TD. Goff throws for 270 yards and a touchdown to St. Brown but gets picked off twice. Montgomery leads the CHI backfield with 100 yards and a score, while Herbert adds 60 yards and a TD. Fields also gets into the end zone on the ground while throwing for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Darnell Mooney. Bears 28-23

Jacksonville (+9.5) at Kansas City, o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Jags snapped a five-game losing streak last week, but they did it against the Raiders, which feels more like hitting the snooze button on a losing streaking. Travis Etienne is on the loose, having piled up 379 rushing yards and four touchdowns the last three weeks, and while it remains a little weird that Doug Pederson isn't featuring him more as a receiver — he got a 50-catch campaign out of Miles Sanders not too long ago — I guess the plan is to get Etienne comfortable in a lead role first before expanding his duties. He seems plenty comfortable to me, though. Trevor Lawrence remains maddeningly inconsistent, and on three separate occasions this season he's followed a sub-60 percent completion rate with a mark above 80 percent in the next, but at least the flashes of upside are there. From a real-football perspective as opposed to a fantasy-roster one, I'd still rather have Lawrence as my young franchise guy than Justin Fields. The defense has actually regressed from early in the year, though, managing only two takeaways the last five games, and while the AFC South is extremely winnable, the Jags don't seem on the cusp of a surge to the top of the division or anything.

Last week's overtime escape against a Titans team that always seems to give Kansas City fits wasn't quite as close at it looked. Harrison Butker missed a field goal and an extra point in regulation, and the other two times this year Patrick Mahomes has led his offense to more than 450 total yards it led to 44 points, not 20, so there's no reason to panic. (It was a lot like the Bills' loss to the Dolphins earlier in the year, in fact — K.C. churned out 29 first downs to Tennessee's nine, but still somehow couldn't pull away.) The running game isn't doing much, but Mahomes hasn't needed it to. He's on pace to break Peyton Manning's NFL record for passing yards in a season (with the 17th game asterisk, of course, but being the first guy to top 5,500 would be nothing to turn your nose up at) and is picking up steam, averaging more than 400 yards the last three games. I mean, for mere mortals that would be unsustainable, you go ahead and tell Mahomes he has to slow down. By the way – the record for consecutive 400-yard games is three, jointly held by Dak Prescott and (double-checks notes) Ryan Fitzpatrick?, so there's another mark in his sights. Mahomes' next one will also be the 10th of his career, putting him in an exclusive club with Drew Brees (the record-holder with 16), Manning, Tom Brady, Dan Marino, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: WR Calvin Ridley (out, suspension), LG Ben Bartch (IR, knee), CB Shaquill Griffin (IR, back), S Rayshawn Jenkins (questionable, concussion)
KC injuries: WR Mecole Hardman (out, abdomen), RT Lucas Niang (PUP-R, knee), DE Frank Clark (out, suspension)

JAC DFS targets: Christian Kirk $5,900 DK / $6,800 FD (KC 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
KC DFS targets: Travis Kelce $7,800 DK / $8,500 FD (JAC 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

JAC DFS fades: none
KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC second in red-zone conversions at 73.5 percent; JAC t-15th in red-zone defense at 55.6 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Etienne gains 100 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Lawrence rises to the challenge, throwing for 310 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to Kirk (who tops 100 yards) and Dan Arnold. Isiah Pacheco leads the KC backfield with 60 yards and a score, though Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon also produce between 40 and 50 scrimmage yards. Mahomes throws for 410 yards and three TDs, hitting Kelce (who tops 100 yards) twice and JuJu Smith-Schuster once. Kansas City 31-28

Cleveland (+3.5) at Miami, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Browns' season isn't completely toast at 3-5, but with five of their next six games coming against playoff-caliber teams (well, four and a half since one is the Bucs), the butter knife is poised and ready. If Cleveland is going to salvage a playoff spot, I will continue to insist it's not going to happen because Deshaun Watson swoops in and saves the day, but because Myles Garrett stays healthy and gets disruptive. In his last three games before the team's Week 9 bye, he piled up 4.5 sacks, and while it would help if Jadeveon Clowney could do more opposite him, Garrett's capable of being a one-man pass rush. Denzel Ward's back 100 percent healthy too and Deion Jones might be ready for a full workload coming out of the bye, so the Browns' defense at least has 'elite playmakers at all three levels' upside, and Nick Chubb — the most efficient workhorse in NFL history through his first five seasons in the league — gives the offense plenty of stability. Jacoby Brissett having to wrap up his starting gig with back-to-back road games against the Dolphins and Bills is a bit of a kick in the nuts, though.

Buffalo's loss to the Jets last week puts the AFC East firmly in play for Miami (and Gang Green, but we'll get to them after their Week 10 bye). All three teams have six wins, but the Fish has that win over the Bills in their pocket already, and now Josh Allen's hurt. Miami's run through a soft spot in their schedule with three consecutive wins, and Tua Tagovailoa remains undefeated in games he's finished. Tyreek Hill's on pace for the first 2,000-yard receiving season in NFL history and has a shot at the first 150-catch campaign too, and wouldn't it be something if he claimed either or both of those records the same year Mahomes set a passing yards record? Tyreek's topped 140 yards in a game five times already, and the only secondaries that have been able to keep him in check so far has been the ... hmm, the Jets and the Bills. That's a bit ominous if you're a Miami fan.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: QB Watson (out, suspension), TE David Njoku (out, ankle), LB Anthony Walker (IR, quadriceps)
MIA injuries: LT Terron Armstead (questionable, toe), LG Liam Eichenberg (IR, knee), RT Austin Jackson (questionable, ankle), CB Byron Jones (PUP-R, Achilles)

CLE DFS targets: David Bell $3,300 DK / $4,900 FD (MIA 26th in DVOA vs. WR3), Harrison Bryant $2,700 DK / $4,800 FD (MIA 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
MIA DFS targets: Raheem Mostert $6,100 DK / $5,900 FD and Jeff Wilson $5,500 DK / $6,500 FD (CLE 30th in rushing DVOA, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)

CLE DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA sixth in red-zone conversions at 69.0 percent; CLE 21st in red-zone defense at 58.6 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 80s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chubb rumbles for 80 yards and a score, while Kareem Hunt adds 50 scrimmage yards. Brissett throws for 260 yards and a TD to Bryant. Mostert leads the MIA backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Wilson adds 50 yards and a score. Tua throws for 270 yards and TDs to Tyreek (who tops 100 yards) and Jaylen Waddle. Dolphins 34-20

Houston (+5) at N.Y. Giants, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Texans remain the only team in the league with fewer than two wins, and in the driver's seat for the top pick in next year's draft, which doesn't leave much else to say about them. The offense has scored more than 20 points once all season, a record of futility only the Steelers and Colts have matched, and just for fun all of Houston's top skill players (Dameon Pierce, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins) were on the injury report during the week. Meanwhile, the run defense is wrecking the curve — by DVOA, the 31st-ranked front seven against the run (the Packers) is 8.2 percent worse than average, while the Texans are 14.7 percent worse. By the raw numbers, the teams ranked 29th through 31st are all clustered between 145 and 149 yards allowed per game; Houston's last at 180.6.

To be honest, Vegas setting the over/under on this one north of 40 feels more like a bet that Saquon Barkley will get into the end zone at will than anything else. The Giants stumbled in Seattle before their Week 9 bye, but they're still 6-2 and looking in good shape for double-digit wins and a playoff spot. That optimism's more due to their remaining schedule than their overall performance, though. Their plus-6 point differential doesn't exactly sync up with being four games over .500, and every one of their victories has been by a single score. Having someone other than Barkley to rely on for points might help. Daniel Jones has limited his turnovers, but his 6.4 YPA would be the fewest of his career, and when Darius Slayton is your most reliable receiver, there's a problem. A second-half breakout by Wan'Dale Robinson might be the Giants' best hope to avoid having to keep winning coin flips.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: WR Cooks (questionable, wrist), WR Collins (questionable, groin), C Justin Britt (NFI-R, personal), DE Jonathan Greenard (IR, calf)
NYG injuries: WR Kenny Golladay (questionable, knee), WR Sterling Shepard (IR, knee), TE Daniel Bellinger (out, eye), LG Shane Lemieux (IR-R, foot), LG Ben Bredeson (IR, knee), RT Evan Neal (out, knee), DE Azeez Ojulari (IR, calf), S Xavier McKinney (NFI-R, hand)

HOU DFS targets: none
NYG DFS targets: Barkley $8,600 DK / $9,500 FD (HOU 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed, t-28th in rushing TDs allowed), Slayton $4,600 DK / $5,800 FD (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

HOU DFS fades: none
NYG DFS fades: none

Key stat: HOU 30th in third-down conversions at 31.1 percent; NYG fourth in third-down defense at 33.0 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, 10 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Pierce picks up 70 yards and a TD. Davis Mills throws for less than 200 yards. Barkley erupts for 140 yards and two scores. Jones throws for 230 yards. Giants 17-16

New Orleans at Pittsburgh (+1.5), o/u 40 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Despite losing at home to the Ravens last week in fairly feeble fashion, the Saints come marching into this one just a game out of first place in the NFC South. The Andy Dalton experiment has run its course — aside from his one huge game in Arizona, he's done little as the starter other than avoid turnovers — but there's been no hint of Jameis Winston reclaiming the gig. With Dalton running the show, the offense has had a very simple usage tree. Alvin Kamara gets his, as does Chris Olave, and then everyone else gets scraps. That's handy from a fantasy perspective, and occasionally a Taysom Hill or Juwan Johnson will do something impressive with their leftovers, but it's not exactly hard to predict what's coming at you. The New Orleans defense isn't helping matters either, as over Dalton's six starts it's coughed up at least 27 points to everyone except the dysfunctional Raiders. Injuries along the offensive line and in the secondary play a large part in both those situations, so maybe if the Saints get healthier in the second half things will turn around. Or maybe the rest of the division will continue to be terrible, and they'll back into a playoff spot anyway.

At 2-6, the Steelers are headed straight for the top of next year's draft. Blowouts against two Super Bowl-caliber teams in the Bills and Eagles skew their overall numbers, but this wasn't a good team in the first half. T.J. Watt's projected return will help the defense avoid future routs, but he won't help Kenny Pickett put more points on the board. (Yes, I know, shorter fields and turnovers yadda yadda yadda, but Watt's not catching passes.) The rookie QB had a 2:5 TD:INT and 5.5 YPA in his first four NFL starts, and as soon as Chase Claypool showed some life the front office flipped him for a draft pick. Shaky as Pickett has been, though, it's the disappearances of Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson that have really held Pittsburgh back. Maybe offensive coordinator Matt Canada got some things sorted over the bye, but more likely we'll see Jaylen Warren and George Pickens continue their ascents in the second half.

The Skinny

NO injuries: RB Mark Ingram (out, knee), WR Michael Thomas (IR, toe), LT Trevor Penning (IR-R, toe), LG Andrus Peat (out, triceps), C Erik McCoy (out, calf), DE Marcus Davenport (questionable, calf), LB Pete Werner (out, ankle), CB Marshon Lattimore (out, abdomen), CB Bradley Roby (IR, ankle), S Marcus Maye (questionable, abdomen)
PIT injuries: LG Kevin Dotson (questionable, abdomen), K Chris Boswell (IR, groin), EDGE Watt (IR-R, knee), EDGE Malik Reed (questionable, personal), CB Akhello Witherspoon (out, hamstring), CB William Jackson (out, back)

NO DFS targets: Dalton $5,500 DK / $6,800 FD (PIT 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed, t-31st in passing TDs allowed)
PIT DFS targets: Steven Sims $3,200 DK / $5,100 FD (NO 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

NO DFS fades: JJohnson $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (PIT second in DVOA vs. TE)
PIT DFS fades: Pat Freiermuth $4,200 DK / $5,600 FD (NO first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: PIT 28th in red-zone conversions at 47.6 percent; NO t-7th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 30s, 10-11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kamara totes up 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Dalton throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Olave and Tre'Quan Smith. Harris leads the PIT backfield with 60 yards. Pickett throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to DJohnson, his first of the year, but he also throws a pick-six to Chris Harris. Saints 28-16

Denver (+2.5) at Tennessee, o/u 36.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Look, I'm not going to criticize the decision to trade Bradley Chubb, especially when they got a first-round pick and change for a guy who's been on the field barely half the team's games over the prior three seasons, but adding Chase Edmonds to your Backfield of Misfit Toys isn't going to move the needle for your offense. This is a team that can't tank for draft position since it sent their first and second rounders in 2023 to Seattle, so Denver will simply have to make the best of things in 2022. Having Russell Wilson turn back into, well, Russell Wilson would certainly help, even if it's probably too late to squeeze a playoff run out of this season. He teased his old form against the Jags prior to the Broncos' bye, but teases aren't enough any more. Russ has throws multiple TDs only once in seven games, and it's not like he doesn't have weapons. This is on him, and coach/buddy Nathaniel Hackett, to fix what's been broken, and fast.

The Titans saw their five-game winning streak end in overtime last week in Kansas City, even with a rookie QB under center who hasn't had his training wheels removed yet. As moral victories go, that was a pretty good one. Derrick Henry has boomed out five consecutive 100-yard games, scoring seven TDs over that stretch, and he's now overtaken Nick Chubb for the league rushing lead. If Henry keeps up the pace he's set over that stretch for the rest of the season, he'll top 2,000 yards for the second time in his career. Over those same five games, the defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points despite being very vulnerable through the air, and I'm not just talking about Patrick Mahomes — Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz each threw for more than 350 yards against this secondary. I'd say that was unsustainable, but Tennessee pulled the same kind of magic trick last season, ranking 25th in passing yards per game allowed but fifth in points per game allowed. This year, the Titans are 30th and tied for 10th in those categories. I don't know how defensive coordinator Shane Bowen is doing it, but somebody will probably poach him for a head coaching vacancy if the bubble doesn't burst.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: RB Javonte Williams (IR, knee), WR KJ Hamler (out, hamstring), WR Tim Patrick (IR, knee), LT Garett Boles (IR, leg), RT Cameron Fleming (questionable, quadriceps), EDGE Randy Gregory (IR, knee), CB Ronald Darby (IR, knee), S Justin Simmons (questionable, knee)
TEN injuries: QB Ryan Tannehill (questionable, ankle), WR Treylon Burks (IR-R, toe), LT Taylor Lewan (IR, knee), DE Jeffery Simmons (out, ankle), LB Zach Cunningham (out, elbow), EDGE Harold Landry (IR, knee), EDGE Bud Dupree (out, hip), CB Kristian Fulton (questionable, hamstring), S Amani Hooker (out, shoulder)

DEN DFS targets: Wilson $5,900 DK / $6,900 FD (TEN 30th in passing yards per game allowed, t-25th in passing TDs allowed), Courtland Sutton $5,600 DK / $6,200 FD (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
TEN DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: Melvin Gordon $5,700 DK / $5,700 FD, Latavius Murray $5,200 DK / $5,700 FD and Edmonds $4,700 DK / $5,100 FD (TEN first in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, first in rushing TDs allowed, third in passing DVOA vs. RB)
TEN DFS fades: Tannehill $5,200 DK / $6,700 FD or Malik Willis $5,000 DK / $6,700 FD (DEN first in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in passing TDs allowed), Dontrell Hilliard $4,700 DK / $5,700 FD (DEN fourth in passing DVOA vs. RB), Robert Woods $4,900 DK / $5,600 FD (DEN first in DVOA vs. WR1), Cody Hollister $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (DEN fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: TEN first in red-zone conversions at 78.9 percent; DEN first in red-zone defense at 26.3 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Murray leads the DEN backfield with 50 yards. Wilson throws for 260 yards and two TDs, hitting Jerry Jeudy and Greg Dulcich. Henry thunders for 120 yards and a touchdown. Tannehill starts but throws for less than 200 yards. Broncos 17-13

Indianapolis (+6) at Las Vegas, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

It's fitting that the Chaos Season would have a Chaos Bowl. The Colts fired Frank Reich after Reich fired Marcus Brady as offensive coordinator, then brought in former All-Pro center Jeff Saturday to be the interim head coach. The result? A head coach who's never coached a game in his life above the high school level, and a coaching staff that features nobody with any experience calling plays in the NFL. Absolutely brilliant. I'm sure that'll go great for Sam Ehlinger in his third career start. (For anyone wondering if Matt Ryan will get another chance to start now that he's healthy, an additional $7 million or so of his 2023 salary would become guaranteed if he's injured to begin next season. So no.) Jonathan Taylor appears healthy again though, and maybe Saturday will be able to help solve the issues with the offensive line, so this offense could end up looking like the Titans' run-heavy attack in the second half.

Meanwhile, in the NFL's other chaos vortex, the Raiders just cut 2019 first-round pick Johnathan Abram, leaving the franchise with almost nothing to show from the three drafts Mike Mayock presided over. The team had six first-round picks between 2019 and 2021. Josh Jacobs (24th overall in 2019) has been good, but Clelin Ferrell (fourth overall in 2019) is a bust with 8.5 career sacks and a declined fifth-year option. Abram (27th overall in 2019) and Alex Leatherwood (17th overall in 2021) are already on different teams, while Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette (12th and 19th in 2020) are out of the NFL entirely. It's no wonder Vegas is 2-6 and sitting in the basement in the AFC West. The Josh McDaniels offense is sputtering too, managing 20 points combined in two straight losses to the Saints and Jaguars, both three-wins teams. Maybe having Davante Adams be 141 and 2/3 percent of your offense is a bad idea. The numbers don't lie Josh, and they spell disaster for the Raiders. Then again, with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow hurt all the time, it's not like Derek Carr has many other options. As for the defense, it's terrible, but this game is truly the movable object versus the resistible object. Las Vegas is dead last in both sacks and takeaways, but Indy is last in sacks allowed and tied for last in giveaways, and that was before the coaching turmoil.

The Skinny

IND injuries: RB Deon Jackson (out, knee), TE Mo Alie-Cox (questionable, ankle), TE Jelani Woods (out, shoulder), DE Kwity Paye (questionable, ankle), LB Shaquille Leonard (out, back)
LV injuries: WR Renfrow (IR, oblique), Waller (IR, hamstring), LB Denzel Perryman (questionable, hip), LB Divine Deablo (IR, forearm)

IND DFS targets: Ehlinger $5,000 DK / $6,400 FD (LV 32nd in passing DVOA, 27th in YPA allowed, t-28th in passing TDs allowed), Parris Campbell $3,900 DK / $5,400 FD (LV 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
LV DFS targets: none

IND DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: Keelan Cole $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (IND second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: IND is 31st in red-zone conversions at 44.0 percent; LV is 31st in red-zone defense at 74.1 percent

The Scoop Taylor stitches together 80 combined yards and a receiving TD. Ehlinger throws for 240 yards and gets picked off twice. Jacobs collects 110 yards and a touchdown. Carr throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting Adams (who tops 100 yards) and Foster Moreau. Raiders 21-16

Dallas at Green Bay (+4.5), o/u 43– Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Coming out of their bye, the Cowboys look as dangerous as anyone in the NFC. The offense erupted against the Bears, and while the defense had trouble containing Justin Fields, that's been a common refrain lately and the unit still sacked Fields four times. Tony Pollard continues to make his case for a No. 1 job – whether it's in Dallas in 2023 is another question entirely – and Dak Prescott has a 76.9 percent completion rate and 8.8 YPA in two starts since returning from his thumb injury. Meanwhile, Micah Parsons leads the best pass rush in the league, Trevon Diggs anchors a formidable secondary and Dan Quinn should have his pick of head coaching jobs next year if he wants one. Dallas doesn't even a tough second-half schedule. The Cowboys face the Vikings and Giants back-to-back after this one, and get the Eagles and Titans in Weeks 16-17, but that's it for playoff-caliber foes. They could well be the wild-card team no one wants to face.

The Packers, however, probably won't need to worry about it. At 3-6 they're already 3.5 back of the Vikes in the NFC North, and while it feels wrong to count Aaron Rodgers out, he really hasn't shown this year like he's capable of turning his crew around. Adam Stenavich looks lost in his first season as offensive coordinator, but Rodgers looks checked out. How else do you explain two end-zone picks and three red-zone INTs in total against the Lions last week? Green Bay should really just start leaning more heaving on its backfield, but one week after Aaron Jones buffaloed Buffalo, he and AJ Dillon combined for only 24 touches and 89 scrimmage yards. Again, this was against Detroit. Woof.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: RB Ezekiel Elliott (questionable, knee), WR James Washington (IR, foot), LT Tyron Smith (IR, knee), CB Jourdan Lewis (IR, foot)
GB injuries: WR Romeo Doubs (out, ankle), WR Randall Cobb (IR, ankle), LT David Bakhtiari (questionable, knee), LV De'Vondre Campbell (out, knee), EDGE Rashan Gary (IR, knee), CB Eric Stokes (out, ankle)

DAL DFS targets: none
GB DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: Michael Gallup $4,900 DK / $5,700 FD (GB third in DVOA vs. WR3)
GB DFS fades: Rodgers $5,800 DK / $6,700 FD (DAL third in passing DVOA, fourth in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed, t-3rd in passing TDs allowed), Christian Watson $3,700 DK / $5,400 FD (DAL sixth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: GB t-23rd in red-zone conversions at 50.0 percent; DAL t-7th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 30s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow

The Scoop Pollard jets for 120 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Prescott throws for 250 yards and a second TD to CeeDee Lamb. Jones churns out 80 yards and a touchdown, while Dillon adds 50. Rodgers throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Josiah Deguara but gets picked off twice and sacked five times. Cowboys 24-14

Arizona (+1.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Just as everyone had pencilled in when the 2022 schedule was released, this game is a battle for the cellar in the NFC West. The Cards have lost four of their last five and allowed three straight opponents to hang at least 31 points on them, even while the offense has been averaging almost 30 a game. It's not a coincidence that surge in scoring for Kyler Murray and company has come with DeAndre Hopkins back in the lineup. The veteran wideout's piled up 298 yards and two TDs in those games, averaging a massive 2.66 yards per route – good for seventh among players who have run at least 100 routes this season, and ahead of the likes of Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams. There's a chance Murray won't get risked in this one behind a threadbare offensive line, but it seems more likely he'll play and just won't scramble much. In theory that could mean a big game for a temporarily healthy James Conner, who hasn't scored since Week 1 and hasn't topped 55 rushing yards yet in 2022, but that sort of wild speculation has no place in... who am I kidding, it's chaos season. I'll be a bit disappointed if Conner doesn't go off for 150 and three TDs.

The Rams have also lost four of five, but that's largely because the offense scored more than 14 points only once in that stretch. The Super Bowl hangover never seems to end for Sean McVay's crew. Matthew Stafford has thrown multiple TDs only once this season while being sacked at least four times on four separate occasions, and the running game can't get going either. If you guessed that was the result of a bad offensive line, you'd be correct. Stafford also might not play if he can't clear the concussion protocols, but having John Wolford under center likely wouldn't make a huge difference right now. Cooper Kupp can't do much more than he's already doing, and Aaron Donald, Bobby Wagner and Jalen Ramsey are all pulling their weight. Really, the team's 3-5 record isn't on the stars at all, it's on the rag-tag o-line consistently losing in the trenches, and that's not a problem that's going to be truly solved during the season. The unit might get a bit healthier in the second half, but it's going to need a massive infusion of talent in the offseason to really be fixed. Did I mention the Rams are short their first and fourth-round picks next year?

The Skinny

ARI injuries: QB Murray (questionable, hamstring), WR Marquise Brown (IR, foot), LT D.J. Humphries (questionable, back), LG Justin Pugh (IR, knee), LG Max Garcia (out, shoulder), C Rodney Hudson (out, knee), RG Will Hernandez (IR, chest), RG Cody Ford (questionable, illness), K Matt Prater (questionable, hip), CB Byron Murphy (questionable, back), S Budda Baker (questionable, ankle)
LAR injuries: QB Stafford (questionable, concussion), RB Malcolm Brown (out, hamstring), RB Kyren Williams (IR-R, ankle), LT Joe Noteboom (IR, Achilles), LT Alaric Jackson (doubtful, knee), LG David Edwards (IR, concussion), C Brian Allen (questionable, knee), RG Tremayne Anchrum (IR, lower leg), RG Logan Bruss (IR, knee), S Jordan Fuller (IR, hamstring)

ARI DFS targets: none
LAR DFS targets: Van Jefferson $3,500 DK / $5,100 FD (ARI 27th in DVOA vs. WR3), Tyler Higbee $3,600 DK / $6,000 FD (ARI 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS fades: Conner $6,200 DK / $6,300 FD (LAR third in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, t-2nd in rushing TDs allowed), Robbie Anderson $3,200 DK / $4,900 FD and A.J. Green $3,300 DK / $5,000 FD (LAR third in DVOA vs. WR3)
LAR DFS fades: Kupp $9,000 DK / $9,200 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: LAR 11th in third-down conversions at 42.7 percent; ARI 28th in third-down defense at 45.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 11-1 LAR, average score 30-15 LAR, average margin of victory 18 points. ARI's lone win during that stretch came in Week 4 of last season, a 37-20 victory at SoFi Stadium

The Scoop Conner grinds out 50 yards. Murray plays and throws for 240 yards and two TDs, both to Hopkins (who tops 100 yards). Henderson surprises with 110 combined yards and a score. Wolford gets the start and throws for 200 yards and two touchdowns, finding Jefferson and Higbee. Rams 21-20

L.A. Chargers (+7) at San Francisco, o/u 45.5
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Despite a wide receiver group that's been gutted by injuries, the Chargers have stayed afloat and won four of their last five. Austin Ekeler is looking like a stealth MVP candidate, scoring multiple TDs in four of those five games for a total of 10 (that's an average of two a game for the arithmatically challenged), but even though he's tied with Nick Chubb for the league lead in scrimmage scores he's only 15th in scrimmage yards. Even more remarkably, Ekeler's only gotten one goal-line carry all year so far. That seems unsustainable, but until Keenan Allen and Mike Williams heal up, it might have to be, especially with the defense routinely coughing up points to offenses it shouldn't. The Jaguars dropped 38 on them in Week 3, and the Seahawks hung 37 on them in Week 7. Heck, even the Texans posted their season high (a whopping 24 points) against the Bolts. As with the passing game, injuries are largely to blame, but in the defense's case reinforcements don't appear to be on the horizon – costing the world a showdown between the Bosa boys.

The Niners should be better than 4-4. They look like a Super Bowl contender at times, but then they've also lost to the Bears, Broncos and Falcons. All three losses were on the road, and the Chicago game especially had extenuating circumstances, but still. The deadline addition of Christian McCaffrey makes this the best offense Kyle Shanahan's ever trotted out, and good luck to defenses trying to keep tabs on him at the same time as Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. The problem now is how to get the defense to be consistent. After not giving up more than 19 points through their first five games, the 49ets got torched for a combined 72 by Kansas City and Atlanta, before facing another offense they could stifle in the Rams. They've got a lot of games coming up, including this one, that have the potential to get away from Nick Bosa and company, and keep the team from gaining ground on Seattle in the NFC West.

The Skinny

LAC injuries: WR Allen (out, hamstring), WR Williams (out, ankle), LT Rashawn Slater (IR, biceps), RT Trey Pipkins (questionable, knee), K Dustin Hopkins (out, hamstring), EDGE Joey Bosa (IR, groin), CB J.C. Jackson (IR, knee)
SF injuries: QB Trey Lance (IR, ankle), DT Arik Armstead (out, foot), CB Emmanuel Moseley (IR, knee), CB Jason Verrett (IR, Achilles)

LAC DFS targets: Michael Bandy $3,700 DK / $5,100 FD (SF 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
SF DFS targets: McCaffrey $9,400 DK / $9,200 FD (LAC 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), Jauan Jennings $3,200 DK / $4,900 FD (LAC 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)

LAC DFS fades: Ekeler $8,400 DK / $9,000 FD (SF first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, second in passing DVOA vs. RB)
SF DFS fades: Aiyuk $6,400 DK / $6,400 FD (LAC second in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: 49ers seventh in third-down conversions at 44,3 percent; LAC t-21st in third-down defense at 41.5 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop Ekeler gets held to 80 scrimmage yards. Justin Herbert throws for 290 yards and three touchdowns, hitting Joshua Palmer twice and DeAndre Carter once. McCaffrey piles up 140 combined yards and two TDs. Jimmy Garoppolo throws for 260 yards and a score to Kittle. 49ers 30-21

Atlanta at Carolina (+2.5), o/u 42.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The NFC South remains an open sore ... sorry, I meant an open race, with no team above .500 and even the 2-7 Panthers not out of it, so, ridiculous at it might seem on the surface, this game has playoff implications, somehow? The Falcons have been alternating wins and losses since Week 4, with the losses coming when they failed to score more than 17 points (or the wins coming when they scored at least 23, depending on whether you're a scoreboard half full sort of person.) Cordarrelle Patterson returned last week with two touchdowns but only 14 touches, and it's not clear yet if that was just him getting back up to speed, or if Atlanta will try to keep him healthy with a smaller workload. It's worth noting Patterson hasn't seen more than one target in a game since Week 1, which seems an odd way to use a converted receiver, but with Marcus Mariota averaging barely 22 attempts a game, there's only so many looks to go around. The priority lately seems to be on getting the ball to Drake London and Kyle Pitts, which is the correct choice, but while the two youngsters have split 14 targets in each of the last two games, that volume has produced only one useful fantasy line (Pitts' 5-80-1 performance in the OT win over Carolina two weeks ago).

Just think how much bigger a mess the division would be if the Panthers had come up with that win in overtime in Week 8. Such a missed opportunity. The quarterback situation is about to enter silly season, as PJ Walker's benching in the second half last week in favor of Baker Mayfield was a prelude to Sam Darnold coming off IR. Walker starts here on a short practice week, but will he finish the game? Seems like a 50-50 chance. After that, it's basically a crap shoot what will happen and who will be under center. Darnold will get a look at some point, but what "a look" entails is anybody's guess, and I suspect not even interim coach Steve Wilks knows now. Personally, I think Wilks should go full Marie Kondo with it and rotate through all three from drive to drive. It's not like any will be the Week 1 starter in 2023 anyway after the team uses a top-5 pick on a QB. I mean, do any of these three guys spark joy, Panthers fans? Chuba Hubbard seems likely to rejoin the backfield alongside D'Onta Foreman, but I'm keeping an eye on Raheem Blackshear as well — the undrafted rookie flashed some third-down ability in the preseason with Buffalo and then caught all four of his targets for 40 yards in his first extended action last week. He offers a skill set neither Foreman nor Hubbard possess, and much like the QB situation, the RB situation could wind up in a three-way muddle over the second half of the year.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: RB Damien Williams (IR, ribs), LG Elijah Wilkinson (IR, knee), LG Matt Hennessy (IR, knee), LG Jalen Mayfield (IR, back), CB A.J. Terrell (out, hamstring), CB Casey Hayward (IR, shoulder)
CAR injuries: RB Hubbard (questionable, ankle), C Pat Elflein (IR, hip), RT Taylor Moton (questionable, elbow), CB Donte Jackson (questionable, ankle), S Jeremy Chinn (IR-R, hamstring)

ATL DFS targets: Patterson $11,800 DK / $14,000 FD (CAR 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-28th in rushing TDs allowed)
CAR DFS targets: Walker $9,600 DK / $15,000 FD (ATL 29th in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 29th in YPA allowed), Terrace Marshall $8,400 DK / $9,000 FD (ATL 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ATL DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: ATL t-6th in third-down conversions at 45.0 percent; CAR 25th in third-down defense at 42.6 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 ATL, average score 26-18 ATL, average margin of victory 10 points. ATL has won four straight meetings at Bank of America Stadium.

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-60s, 10-11 mph wind, 55-65 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Patterson dashes for 100 yards and a score. Mariota throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Pitts. Foreman leads the CAR backfield with 80 yards and a TD. Walker throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to DJ Moore and Marshall, but he also tosses two INTs that set up Atlanta scores. Falcons 23-21

Last week's record: 10-3, 6-5-2 ATS, 4-9 o/u
2022 regular-season record: 73-62-1, 59-72-5 ATS, 66-69-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 1361-831-8, 1064-1064-72 ATS, 801-856-3AT1 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)