SUNDAY A.M.
Washington (+2.5) vs. Miami at Madrid, o/u 47.5
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EST
Injuries continue to wreck whatever hopes the Commanders had of building on last year's success. Jayden Daniels' inability to stay on the field is the biggest issue, but the entire roster's been gutted — Terry McLaurin hasn't played a full game since Week 2, the pass rush is missing its two biggest threats and second-year slot man Mike Sainristil could be the only starting corner left standing for this one. Even Treylon Burks, rescued from the scrap heap after the Titans finally gave up on him, lasted only two games with Washington before breaking down. Coach Dan Quinn says he's taking over defensive play-calling duties this week, but what does he have to work with? Washington's lost five consecutive, giving up an average of 35.8 points and 437.2 yards during that skid, and the best DQ can probably hope for is to at least slow the collapse ahead of the team's desperately needed Week 12 bye.
The Dolphins aren't making the playoffs, but they probably feel like they just won the lottery after last week's pummeling of a complacent Bills squad. Miami's actually won two of its last three, scoring at least 30 points in each win as the offense shows occasional flashes of its previous brilliance, but this is a team that scored 12 points total in the two losses sandwiched around those wins. Consistency isn't really the Dolphins' thing. The key to any success they've had this year has more been on the defense, though — Miami has seven takeaways in its three wins and only three across its seven losses, which is a nifty bit of symmetry. De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle have kept the offense puttering along despite Tua Tagovailoa's struggles — he has a 7:9 TD:INT in the last five games. When DC Anthony Weaver's unit can keep pace with Tua's mistakes, the Fish have a fighting chance, but that hasn't happened very often in 2025.
Key Info
WAS injury report: QB Jayden Daniels (out, elbow), RB Austin Ekeler (IR, Achilles), WR Terry McLaurin (out, quadricep), WR Noah Brown (IR, groin), WR Luke McCaffrey (IR, collarbone), WR Treylon Burks (out, finger), EDGE Dorance Armstrong (IR, knee), EDGE Deatrich Wise (IR, quadricep), DT Daron Payne (out, suspension), CB Trey Amos (IR, lower leg), CB Marshon Lattimore (IR, knee), S Will Harris (IR, ankle)
MIA injury report: WR Tyreek Hill (IR, knee), TE Darren Waller (IR, pectoral), LG Liam Eichenberg (PUP, undisclosed), RG James Daniels (IR, pectoral), RT Austin Jackson (IR, toe), K Jason Sanders (IR, hip), CB Storm Duck (IR, knee), CB Rasul Douglas (questionable, foot), CB Kader Kohou (IR, knee)
Slight lean: WR Jaylin Lane (MIA 24th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: RB De'Von Achane (WAS 29th in rushing yards allowed to RBs, 27th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Slight fade: RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt / Chris Rodriguez (MIA sixth in rushing DVOA)
No MIA fades, especially given the state of the WAS secondary
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NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Jeremy McNichols leads the WAS backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a TD. Marcus Mariota throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Zach Ertz. Achane racks up 120 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Tagovailoa throws for less than 200 yards and a second TD to Waddle, but he also gets picked off twice. Commanders 23-21
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EARLY SUNDAY
Carolina (+3.5) at Atlanta, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Panthers have a problem, and his name is Bryce Young. I appreciate that his development got stunted by coaching turmoil in his rookie season (which is becoming a common refrain around the league, but I'll save that rant for the Giants game). Last year he showed some faint glimmers of progress, so it was fair to see if he could build on it. This season, even with Carolina having invested a first-round pick in Tetairoa McMillan to give him the true WR1 he's lacked, Young has regressed. He's topped 200 passing yards exactly once in 2025, his 5.6 YPA is putrid and he's on pace to throw more INTs than he did as a rookie. As a result, even with Rico Dowdle proving to be a real weapon in the backfield, the Panthers have scored a total of 45 points in their last four games. Three NFC North teams have topped that number in a single game this season. They're 2-2 during that stretch because the defense came up with a huge effort against the Packers and they got to play the Jets, but last week's 17-7 loss to the Saints showed just how thin that margin for error is. They're not far out of a wild-card spot, so you have to wonder if Dave Canales is considering a switch to Andy Dalton just to try to inject some life into the passing game. Then again, their remaining schedule highlights just how improbable a run to the postseason would be — five of their last six games are against the Niners, Rams, Seahawks and Bucs (twice).
The Falcons' front seven got completely caved in by Jonathan Taylor last week, and while giving up big numbers to an elite RB generally isn't something to be too ashamed up, 286 scrimmage yards and three TDs — including the winning score in OT — isn't something that can just be hand-waved away. JT set a league high on the season with an 83-yard touchdown run (breaking the mark previously held by Bijan Robinson, funnily enough), and had another 161 yards on top of that. Atlanta's dropped four straight, and while they do have enough soft spots left on their schedule to make crawl back to around .500 by the end of the year, that's about the best they can hope for. It would help if Michael Penix has someone other than Drake London he trusted. London's been on the other end of Penix's last four TD passes and six of his last eight, which is great for the wideout's fantasy investors but not so great for anyone else, including the Falcons. Darnell Mooney has somehow caught only three passes in the last three games despite seeing 14 targets, while Kyle Pitts is still Kyle Pitts. If the defense were better, an offense that had only Robinson and London to lean on could probably get by, but DC Jeff Ulbrich's crew has been above average at best, and gusting more toward average than great.
Key Info
CAR injury report: RG Robert Hunt (IR, bicep), LB Trevin Wallace (out, shoulder)
ATL injury report: WR Drake London (questionable, illness), LG Matthew Bergeron (out, ankle), RG Chris Lindstrom (questionable, foot), RT Kaleb McGary (IR, leg), EDGE Zach Harrison (questionable, knee), EDGE Leonard Floyd (out, hamstring), CB Mike Hughes (questionable, neck), CB Dee Alford (out, concussion)
Slight lean: RB Rico Dowdle (ATL 27th in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed)
Strong lean: TE Kyle Pitts (CAR 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)
Strong fade: QB Bryce Young (ATL second in passing DVOA, second in passing yards per game allowed)
Strong fade: WR Darnell Mooney (CAR second in DVOA vs. WR2)
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NFL weather report: indoors
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 CAR, average score 23-22 CAR, average margin of victory 10 points. Three of the last five meetings have been decided by double-digit points, including the Panthers' 30-0 shellacking of the Falcons in Week 3
The Scoop: Dowdle hits for 110 combined yards and a touchdown. Young throws for less than 200 yards and a score to McMillan. Robinson responds with 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Penix throws for 220 yards and another touchdown to London, but this time that's enough. Falcons 23-17
Tampa Bay (+5.5) at Buffalo, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Bucs have lost two of the last three to keep dangling hope in front of the rest of the NFC South, but really, who's going to catch them? The Panthers? Baker Mayfield's production has slowed a bit as all the injuries in the WR corps catch up to the team, but he tossed three TDs in last week's loss to the Patriots, including two to Tez Johnson, and the seventh-round rookie has four touchdowns in five games since taking over a significant role in the passing attack. The backfield is also getting by on backups, and Sean Tucker began to make a case to pass Rachaad White on the depth chart last week. Tampa Bay's three losses this season have all come against current division leaders — New England, Philly and Detroit — and once the team gets through this gauntlet of contenders that wraps up on the road against the Rams next week, it should be pretty smooth sailing for Todd Bowles' boys the rest of the way. At least that game will be indoors. The Buccaneers will be dealing with some very un-Tampa-like weather in Buffalo.
For the second time in their last four games, the Bills basically no-showed against an inferior opponent, this time getting stomped 30-13 in Miami, in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score suggests — Buffalo didn't even get on the board until the fourth quarter. You can get away with those kinds of lapses in less competitive divisions, but all of a sudden the Bills find themselves three wins back of the Pats in the AFC East. Josh Allen isn't getting the same level of MVP buzz he did this time last season, but he's produced multiple TDs in seven consecutive games (13 passing, five rushing) and is on track for a career-high 70.3 percent completion rate and 8.1 YPA. It's kind of a miracle he's pulling that off, considering his best downfield option might be tight end Dalton Kincaid. James Cook keeps gobbling up real estate — he's second in rushing yards in Jonathan Taylor and fifth in scrimmage yards among RBs — but he's gotten into the end zone in only one of the last five games. Buffalo is probably going to need more from Allen's supporting cast, because they're likely to get less from their defense as injuries hammer their front seven. DC Bobby Babich's unit was already one of the worst in the league against the run, but without Ed Oliver and Michael Hoecht, performances like the one De'Von Achane hung on them last week (225 combined yards and two TDs) could become commonplace.
Key Info
TB injury report: RB Bucky Irving (out, shoulder), WR Chris Godwin (out, lower leg), WR Mike Evans (IR, collarbone), WR Jalen McMillan (IR, neck), LG Ben Bredeson (out, hamstring), RG Cody Mauch (IR, knee), RG Luke Haggard (questionable, shoulder), EDGE Calijah Kancey (IR, pectoral), EDGE Haason Reddick (out, ankle)
BUF injury report: TE Dalton Kincaid (out, hamstring), K Tyler Bass (IR, hip), DE Michael Hoecht (IR, Achilles), DT Ed Oliver (IR, bicep), S Taylor Rapp (IR, knee)
Strong lean: RB Rachaad White / Sean Tucker (BUF 30th in rushing DVOA, 31st in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)
Slight lean: WR Elijah Moore (TB 24th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight fade: WR Sterling Shepard (BUF third in receiving yards per game allowed to WR3s)
Slight fade: WR Khalil Shakir (TB fifth in DVOA vs. WR1)
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NFL weather report: temperature in the mid-30s, 15-20 mph wind, 50-60 percent chance of snow
The Scoop: White leads the TB backfield with 60 yards, while Tucker adds 50 and a score. Mayfield throws for less than 200 yards and finds Emeka Egbuka for a TD. Cook erupts for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Allen throws for under 200 yards and runs for 50. Bills 17-14
L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville (+3), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Winners of three straight, the Chargers remain on the heels of the Broncos atop the AFC West and have put a little distance between themselves and third-place Kansas City. Despite having revolving doors at tackle to protect him, Justin Herbert keeps doing enough to get the job done, but 11 sacks in the last two games is a disconcerting sign. Omarion Hampton won't return to stabilize the running game until after a Week 12 bye, so Herbert will have at least one more contest in which the opposition pass rushers can tee off on him without needing to worry too much about stopping the run. The Bolts do have one of the deepest pass-catching groups in the league, though, with rookie TE Oronde Gadsden's breakout providing extra competition for Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen. The defense has also been stout, sitting in the top 10 in points per game allowed and yards per play allowed. The trick will be to stay close enough to the Broncos that a Week 18 trip to Denver will mean something.
The Jaguars are still above .500, but they've been pretty dreadful the last month or so, losing three of their last four — and in the win, they needed overtime to get past the Raiders. Last week's late collapse against a Texans squad that didn't even have C.J. Stroud under center just put a bow on the slump. Trevor Lawrence has actually gotten worse as the season's gone on, stumbling to a 2:2 TD:INT over the last three games, though injuries to his top two wideouts and top tight end don't help. Brian Thomas might make it back onto the field Sunday, but the trade for Jakobi Meyers could end up being even more important considering how little time in the pocket Lawrence has been getting. He's been sacked five-plus times in all three recent losses, and having someone he can get the ball out to quickly should be invaluable.
Key Info
LAC injury report: RB Omarion Hampton (IR, ankle), RB Najee Harris (IR, Achilles), RB Hassan Haskins (IR, hamstring), WR Quentin Johnston (questionable, shin), LT Rashawn Slater (IR, knee), RT Joe Alt (IR, ankle), RT Bobby Hart (questionable, knee), CB Tarheeb Still (questionable, questionable, knee)
JAC injury report: WR Brian Thomas (questionable, ankle), WR/CB Travis Hunter (IR, knee), TE Brenton Strange (IR, hip), TE Hunter Long (out, hip), RT Anton Harrison (out, knee), CB Jourdan Lewis (out, neck), S Eric Murray (IR, neck)
Slight lean: TE Oronde Gadsden (JAC 24th in DVOA vs. TE)
Slight lean: TE Johnny Mundt (LAC 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
Strong fade: WR Keenan Allen (JAC third in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: WR Jakobi Meyers (LAC fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)
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NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Kimani Vidal picks up 80 yards and a TD. Herbert throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting McConkey and Gadsden. Travis Etienne pops for 100 yards and a touchdown. Lawrence throws for under 200 yards but does find Thomas for a TD. Chargers 27-20
Chicago (+3) at Minnesota, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
The Bears are 6-3, but it still doesn't feel like they're a serious threat in the NFC. Partially that's due to the fact that they haven't beaten anyone good yet — they're 6-0 against teams with three wins or fewer coming into Week 11, and 0-3 against teams with four wins or more — but it's also due to the fact that they're barely squeaking by the also-rans. They needed 14 points in the final four minutes of the fourth quarter last week to get past the Giants (and cost Brian Daboll his job), and the week before that was the absurd finish to the Bengals game, when the two teams combined for four TDs in the final four minutes. Late heroics are great and all, but let's see Caleb Williams do it against a real defense. The Bears are at least looking more like a Ben Johnson offense these days with D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai both making an impact out of the backfield, though they remain the Dollar General version of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Chicago's success this season has really been led by its defense, though — they have at least three takeaways in five of the six wins, and a total of just one in the three losses. Top corner Jaylon Johnson, who had 18 passes defended including six picks the prior two seasons, had his practice window opened this week too, so reinforcements are on the way.
This is beginning to look like a lost season for the Vikings. They're 4-5, so a second-half surge that gets them to the postseason and potentially even an NFC North title isn't off the table, but Minnesota's lost three of its last four and J.J. McCarthy doesn't look all that capable of putting together that kind of run. It's hard to blame the kid given all the development time he's lost to injuries, but those sorts of excuses for a 53.7 percent completion rate and 5:6 TD:INT in his first four NFL games don't get the team any closer to the playoffs. McCarthy's struggles have even done what defenses largely haven't been able to do, which is neutralize Justin Jefferson. Over two games since McCarthy's return, he's turned 21 targets into just a 10-84-1 line. Carson Wentz is no longer an option to fill in, so coach Kevin O'Connell will have to pull off some real QB whisperer magic to turn McCarthy around. The Vikes' closing schedule isn't especially brutal — four games against good teams, including three within the division, but also three against the dregs of the NFC East — but they might have too much ground to make up, as nine wins might not get it done for a wild-card spot.
Key Info
CHI injury report: LB T.J. Edwards (out, hand), CB Jaylon Johnson (IR, groin), CB Kyler Gordon (IR, groin), S Jaquan Brisker (questionable, back)
MIN injury report: RB Aaron Jones (questionable, shoulder/toe), LT Christian Darrisaw (questionable, knee), C Ryan Kelly (IR, concussion), RG Will Fries (questionable, calf), EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel (questionable, neck), EDGE Jonathan Greenard (out, shoulder), CB Theo Jackson (questionable, concussion), S Josh Metellus (questionable, foot)
Slight lean: WR Rome Odunze (MIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: RB Aaron Jones (CHI 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Slight fade: WR Olamide Zaccheaus (MIN sixth in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight fade: WR Justin Jefferson (CHI ninth in DVOA vs. WR1)
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NFL weather report: indoors
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 MIN, average score 24-18 MIN, average margin of victory eight points. Both Bears victories during that stretch have come at U.S. Bank Stadium, most recently a 12-10 victory in Week 12 of 2023
The Scoop: Swift leads the CHI backfield with 80 yards and a score, while Monangai adds 50 yards. Williams throws for less than 200 yards but finds Odunze and DJ Moore for TDs. Jones puts together 80 yards and a touchdown. McCarthy throws for less than 200 yards and hits T.J. Hockenson for a score. Bears 24-20
Green Bay at N.Y. Giants (+7), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Consecutive losses have dropped the Packers to third in the NFC North, though they're only a half-game back of the Lions and Bears. Oh my! Jordan Love's gone cold, failing to throw a TD in either loss while committing two turnovers, and it's probably not a coincidence that the downturn came when Tucker Kraft was lost for the season. Green Bay still has its usual grab-bag of wideouts for Love to choose from, but Romeo Doubs seems to be the only one he has a lot of faith in. Josh Jacobs provides the offense with an incredibly stable floor — he's gotten into the end zone in six straight games and eight of nine this season — but the Packers need Love to come through with some ceiling against tougher opponents. The defense at least remains stingy, sitting in the top seven in PPG allowed and yards per play allowed, even if Micah Parsons and the pass rush haven't been living up to expectations. This is a unit that's held Detroit and Philly to a combined 23 points, and the volatile Cowboys are the only team in 2025 to hang more than 25 points on the Pack.
Here's the list of recent quarterbacks picked in the first round whose careers seem to have been screwed up by their teams switching coaches when they were rookies: Trevor Lawrence, who's now on his third scheme in five seasons and had to deal with the Urban Mayer debacle in his debut; Bryce Young, who looks like a total bust as the first overall pick in 2023; Caleb Williams, who has shown flashes in Year 2 but is definitely not living up to expectations; and Cam Ward, who's been pretty brutal, though the jury is, of course, out on him. Which brings us to Jaxson Dart, who was looking like a real solution for the Giants even though he wasn't a first overall pick ... if he survives Brian Daboll's playcalling, that is. (The same sort of thing happened with Daniel Jones, who got used heavily on the ground in Daboll's first year in New York, then was only healthy enough to play six games the following season.) Daboll's now gone after the Giants fell to 2-8 last week via another fourth-quarter collapse, but what in the blue hell was he doing still on the sidelines in the first place? Him getting fired looked inevitable at the end of last season. Why do organizations keep investing massive draft capital in a potential franchise QB, only to entrust his crucial first year of development to a coach who you have so little confidence in, he doesn't make it to December? It's madness. It's professional incompetence. The idea that the Giants are letting the GM who put Dart in this situation, Joe Schoen, lead the search for their next coach should terrify the team's fans. In theory it should be a plum job given the pieces on the roster — a young set of triplets on offense, even if all three are on the shelf right now, and a strong front seven — but would you really trust Schoen to find the right coach to put those pieces together, or add around that core?
Key Info
GB injury report: RB MarShawn Lloyd (IR, hamstring), WR Matthew Golden (questionable, shoulder), WR Jayden Reed (IR, collarbone), TE Tucker Kraft (IR, knee), C Elgton Jenkins (IR, lower leg), RT Zach Tom (questionable, back), EDGE Micah Parsons (questionable, pectoral), Lukas Van Ness (questionable, foot)
NYG injury report: QB Jaxson Dart (out, concussion), RB Cam Skattebo (IR, ankle), WR Malik Nabers (IR, knee), WR Darius Slayton (out, hamstring), K Graham Gano (IR, neck), EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (out, shoulder), DE Rakeem Nunez-Roches (doubtful, toe), LB Bobby Okereke (questionable, shoulder), LB Micah McFadden (IR, foot),CB Paulson Adebo (questionable, knee), S Tyler Nubin (doubtful, neck)
Strong lean: RB Josh Jacobs (NYG 32nd in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed)
Slight lean: TE Theo Johnson (GB t-29th in reception per game allowed to TEs)
Slight fade: WR Dontayvion Wicks (NYG ninth in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight fade: RB Tyrone Tracy / Devin Singletary (GB eighth in rushing DVOA, sixth in YPC allowed, sixth in rushing yards per game allowed)
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NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 20-30 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Jacobs rumbles for 110 yards and two TDs. Love throws for 230 yards and two scores, finding Doubs and Christian Watson. Singletary leads the NYG backfield with 60 yards. Jameis Winston gets the start under center and throws for less than 200 yards with two touchdowns, one each to Johnson and Jalin Hyatt, but he also gets picked off twice. Packers 31-14
Cincinnati (+5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Here's how bad the AFC North is this season: at 3-6, the Bengals still have a semi-plausible path to winning the division if Joe Burrow is his usual self when he returns. (That would probably have to involve sweeping the season series against the Ravens, but if Burrow's back by Thanksgiving, that seems a lot less silly.) Joe Flacco's been ridiculous since joining Cincy, posting a 11:2 TD:INT in his four starts, but his 40-year-old shoulder may not have many tosses left in it. He's had to sling it so much because the defense is at least in the conversation to be the worst in the league, and even after being on bye last week, the Bengals still roll into this one with Trey Hendrickson on the shelf and Logan Wilson jettisoned to Dallas. Three opponents have hung 500-plus yards on DC Al Golden's unit, and one was the Jets, which should have gotten everyone involved fired on the spot. You know what, never mind what I said about a division title being semi-plausible with Burrow back.
The current leader in the AFC North is the Steelers at a heady 5-4. Pittsburgh's underwater in point different, but so is the rest of the division, so that's no big deal. More concerning is the three losses in the last four games, with a victory over the Colts during that stretch needing a mind-boggling six takeaways to pull off. The Steelers have been out-gained in terms of yardage in all four of those games, and Aaron Rodgers is looking more and more like a very temporary placeholder, eking out a 63.7 percent completion rate, 5.7 YPA and 4:2 TD:INT over his last three starts. Other than the occasional turnover bonanza from the defense (11 of their 16 takeaways on the year have come in just two games) and steady work by T.J. Watt and the pass rush, the Steelers haven't really excelled in any particular area, and the offense is sagging down into the below-average zone, sitting 24th in yards per play and 27th in third-down conversions.
Key Info
CIN injury report: RB Samaje Perine (out, ankle), EDGE Trey Hendrickson (out, hip), EDGE Shemar Stewart (out, knee)
PIT injury report: LG Isaac Seumalo (questionable, pectoral), EDGE Alex Highsmith (out, pectoral), LB Cole Holcomb (out, illness), CB Darius Slay (out, concussion), S DeShon Elliott (IR, knee)
Slight lean: WR Andrei Iosivas (PIT 22nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
Strong lean: QB Aaron Rodgers (CIN 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing TDs allowed)
Strong lean: RB Jaylen Warren (CIN 31st in rushing DVOA, 30th in YPC allowed, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Strong fade: WR Tee Higgins (PIT first in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: WR DK Metcalf (CIN seventh in DVOA vs. WR1)
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NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 50-60 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 CIN, average score 25-24 CIN, average margin of victory 12 points. The Bengals have won three of the last four meetings at Acrisure Stadium, including a 19-17 victory in Week 18 of last season
The Scoop: Chase Brown pops for 110 yards and a touchdown. Flacco throws for 280 yards and two TDs, both to Ja'Marr Chase (who tops 100 yards). Warren answer back with 120 scrimmage yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth, but the defense can't get a takeaway when it needs one. Bengals 27-24
Houston at Tennessee (+7), o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST
Week 10 of the 2025 season likely will always be remembered as the Davis Mills Game in Texans lore. Down 29-10 to the Jaguars heading into the fourth quarter, C.J. Stroud's backup engineered three consecutive scoring drives, tossing TD passes to Jayden Higgins and Dalton Schultz before running in what proved to be the winning score himself — his first rushing TD since 2022. That still left Houston at 4-5 and well back of Indy in the AFC South, but a wild-card spot still seems viable, though with teams like Buffalo and Kansas City looking like they might be in the wild-card mix this year, it may not be likely. Stroud's concussion will keep him out at least one more game, but a dominant Houston defense probably doesn't need a lot of help to secure the win in this one.
At 1-8, the Titans find themselves in the driver's seat for the first overall pick in the 2026 draft. They aren't just losing, they're generally losing big — their 27-20 loss to the Chargers before a Week 10 bye was their first by only one score since their opener, and their lone win was by a single point. Cam Ward isn't showing a lot of improvement as the season has progressed, producing zero TDs in three of the last six games and completing less than 60 percent of his passes in four of those six, and the switch at coach from Brian Callahan to Mike McCoy doesn't seem to have had much of an impact on the team's fortunes. It definitely didn't change the talent level on the roster. Calvin Ridley might be able to return after missing the last three games, but he's still looking for his first 2025 touchdown and has reached 60 receiving yards in only one of the six contests he's been able to suit up for, so he can't be expected to move the needle. The week off also didn't do a lot to get the defense healthier.
Key Info
HOU injury report: QB C.J. Stroud (out, concussion), RB Joe Mixon (NFI, foot), WR Tank Dell (PUP, knee), TE Dalton Schultz (questionable, shoulder), RG Ed Ingram (questionable, knee), RT Tytus Howard (questionable, concussion), K Ka'imi Fairbairn (out, quadricep), EDGE Denico Autry (questionable, knee), CB Jalen Pitre (questionable, concussion)
TEN injury report: WR Calvin Ridley (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Jeffery Simmons (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Arden Key (questionable, quadricep), CB L'Jarius Sneed (IR, quadricep), S Xavier Woods (out, hamstring)
Slight lean: WR Nico Collins (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
No TEN leans. The HOU defense has been stingy across the board
Slight fade: TE Dalton Schultz (TEN seventh in DVOA vs. TE)
Strong fade: QB Cam Ward (HOU first in passing DVOA, fourth in passing yards per game allowed, t-third in TD passes allowed)
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NFL weather report: 25-35 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 HOU, average score 25-20 HOU, average margin of victory nine points. The Texans have won four straight meetings at NRG Stadium by an average score of 21-14, and they've won five of the last six meetings overall, including a 26-0 rout in Week 4
The Scoop: Woody Marks leads the HOU backfield with 70 yards and a score. Mills throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Collins. Tony Pollard leads the TEN backfield with 50 yards, while Tyjae Spears punches in a short touchdown. Ward throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Texans 20-10
LATE SUNDAY
San Francisco at Arizona (+2.5), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
The surest sign the 49ers are finally emerging from their first-half injurypocalypse is that Brock Purdy will start Sunday, just his third of the season and first since Week 4. They're still missing a couple big pieces on defense, and the WR corps isn't at full strength, but that's a whole lot better than things were a month or so ago. The rag-tag roster's San Francisco's been trotting out have kept the team afloat, and at 6-4 they're two losses back of the Seahawks and Rams in the NFC West, and firmly in the wild-card mix. Christian McCaffrey remains on pace for one of the greatest receiving seasons by a running back in NFL history — Washington's Charley Taylor technically holds the all-time record for receiving yards in a season by a "RB" with 1,119 in 1966, though he'd mostly switched to WR by then, with Marshall Faulk hauling in 1,048 yards for the Rams in 1999. CMac himself holds the record for receptions with 116 for the Panthers in 2019. This season, he's on pace for 117 catches and 1,176 yards. The big question for the Niners is whether the defense can hold together enough. Last week's 42-26 loss to the Rams was an ominous sign, but giving up 475 yards to the Texans in Week 8 was just as alarming. Without Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, DC Robert Saleh's unit isn't getting pressure or generating takeaways, and they've slipped into the bottom 12 in yards per play allowed.
Jacoby Brissett's had a long, useful career in the NFL since being a third-round pick in 2016, but I'm not sure even he expected to be the guy the Cardinals would be pinning their fading playoffs hopes on in 2025. It's possible Kyler Murray's played his last game for Arizona, though I think it's just as likely the franchise picks him over Jonathan Gannon (career record as head coach: 15-28) this offseason given the nature of the QB's contract. Brissett's been productive in his four starts, posting an 8:1 TD:INT while running in another score despite working with a shorthanded backfield and shaky offensive line that's allowed him to get sacked 18 times in that time. Marvin Harrison will also sit this one out after getting his appendix removed, leaving him with a WR group that's arguably headlined by Greg Dortch. Trey McBride's the team's top target regardless, of course. The Cards are also coming off an ugly loss to a division rival, getting crushed by the Seahawks 44-22, but if the defense can keep stealing the ball (six takeaways in the last two games, nearly doubling Arizona's season total), Brissett might be able to play spoiler for other team's playoff chances, even if there's almost no chance the Cards stay alive themselves.
Key Info
SF injury report: WR Ricky Pearsall (questionable, knee), WR Brandon Aiyuk (PUP, knee), EDGE Nick Bosa (IR, knee), EDGE Mykel Williams (IR, knee), DT Alfred Collins (questionable, hip), LB Fred Warner (IR, ankle), LB Dee Winters (questionable, knee), CB Deommodore Lenoir (questionable, calf)
ARI injury report: QB Kyler Murray (IR, foot), RB Trey Benson (IR, knee), RB James Conner (IR, foot), RB Bam Knight (questionable, ankle), WR Marvin Harrison (out, appendix), WR Zay Jones (IR, Achilles), LG Evan Brown (questionable, foot), RG Will Hernandez (questionable, knee), RT Jonah Williams (questionable, shoulder), DT Walter Nolen (questionable, knee), LB Mack Wilson (out, ribs), CB Will Johnson (questionable, back), CB Max Melton (questionable, concussion), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (NFI, knee), CB Starling Thomas (IR, knee)
Slight lean: WR Demarcus Robinson (ARI 25th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Strong lean: WR Greg Dortch (SF 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight fade: WR Kendrick Bourne (ARI ninth in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: WR Michael Wilson (SF 10th in DVOA vs. WR1)
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NFL weather report: indoors
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 SF, average score 26-22 SF, average margin of victory 13 points. The last four season series have been sweeps (two each), with the 49ers taking both games in 2022 and 2023. They won the first meeting this season 16-15 in Week 3
The Scoop: McCaffrey gets held to 80 yards. Purdy looks good in his return, throwing for 220 yards and two TDs, one each to Jauan Jennings and George Kittle. Emari Demercado leads the ARI backfield with 70 yards and a score. Brissett throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, finding McBride and Dortch. Cardinals 27-23
Seattle (+3) at L.A. Rams, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST
While the Niners-Cards clash makes for a nice undercard matchup, this is the main event in the NFC West this week. The Seahawks have won four consecutive, and they're been particularly impressive since their bye, dominating a couple outclassed opponents in Washington and Arizona by a combined score of 82-36. Sam Darnold's been a little careless with the ball during the win streak, committing six turnovers in the last three games, but he's gotten away with it thanks to six TD passes, a 71.6 percent completion rate and a 10.8 YPA. The backfield would be a fantasy superstar if it were one guy (Zachneth Charbalker?), but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has that role filled already. JSN is the first player in the NFL this season to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards, and Ja'Marr Chase is a distant second, more than 200 yards back at 831. Smith-Njigba's basically been uncoverable — his 794 yards before contact would be third in the league all on its own, and he's seen a massive 48.5 percent of Seattle's air yards, a share that also leads the league. That's been more than enough offense for a defense that's in the top five in PPG allowed and yards per play allowed.
The Rams also roll into this one having won four straight, and it would be six in a row if the Niners hadn't stolen one in OT back in Week 5. Matthew Stafford's been unstoppable lately, becoming the first QB in history with three consecutive games with a 4:0 TD:INT or better. In fact, the 37-year-old hasn't thrown a pick since Week 3, reeling off a 20:0 TD:INT, 67.4 percent completion rate and 7.9 YPA during those six games. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams keep picking up nagging injuries, but the Rams haven't needed them both to be at their best while winning games by an average of 20.5 points. DC Chris Shula's unit is second in PPG allowed but just slightly behind Seattle in yards per play allowed, and both teams feature strong pass rushes and are in the top 10 in takeaways. Statistically, these two are just about evenly matched, so the game's likely to be decided by whose stars rise to the occasion.
Key Info
SEA injury report: WR Tory Horton (out, groin), LG Grey Zabel (questionable, heel), C Jalen Sundell (out, knee), EDGE Jarran Reed (IR, thumb), S Julian Love (IR, hamstring)
LAR injury report: WR Davante Adams (questionable, oblique), EDGE Kobie Turner (questionable, back), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (IR, collarbone)
Slight lean: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (LAR 27th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: TE Tyler Higbee (SEA 26th in DVOA vs. TE)
Slight fade: WR Rashid Shaheed (LAR eighth in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong fade: RB Kyren Williams (SEA second in rushing DVOA, third in YPC allowed, third in rushing yards per game allowed, t-third in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
Strong fade: WR Puka Nacua (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR1)
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NFL weather report: indoors
Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 7-4 LAR, average score 22-19 LAR, average margin of victory eight points. Five of the last six meetings have been decided by a single score
The Scoop: Walker leads the SEA backfield with 70 yards and actually scores for himself for a change. Darnold throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, two to JSN and one to Cooper Kupp. Williams gets held to 60 yards on the ground, but he adds a receiving TD. Stafford throws for 290 yards and two more scores, one each to Higbee and Adams, and he leads a game-winning FG drive late. Rams 30-28
Baltimore at Cleveland (+7.5), o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
Don't look now (especially if you're a Steelers fan), but the Ravens have won three straight since their bye and are looking like themselves again. Lamar Jackson has a 5:0 TD:INT in two games since returning from a hamstring injury, Derrick Henry is averaging 96.8 rushing yards over the last four games with a 4.6 YPC, and the defense has held four consecutive opponents to less than 20 points while producing eight takeaways. The pass rush is still lagging, though (tied with the Niners and Jags for dead last in the league with 12 sacks), and while the team did add Dre'Mont Jones at the trade deadline for a Day 3 pick in 2026, he won't move the needle. This is far from the best team John Harbaugh's put on the field, but in a badly flawed AFC North, it's probably good enough. The Ravens are also about to head into a stretch of games that could let them really pad their numbers — after the Browns, they get the Jets plus the Bengals twice over the next four weeks.
Speaking of the Browns, they remain in the hunt for the top pick in 2026 with a 2-7 record, if they can avoid stumbling into wins against the likes of the Raiders and Titans in the second half. Quinshon Judkins basically is the Cleveland offense at this point, but even he's only found the end zone in one of the last five games, while Dillon Gabriel continues to look very much like a future backup QB in the NFL. Who he'll be backing up is the bigger question, really. If Shedeur Sanders were looking like a credible alternative, he'd have started a game by now, which leaves open the possibility of giving Deshaun Watson another shot at earning some tiny portion of his contract. Who's under center in Week 11 will be a moot point given the weather conditions, but hey, the Browns will be indoors in Vegas next week.
Key Info
BAL injury report: RB Justice Hill (out, toe), WR Rashod Bateman (out, ankle), EDGE Nnamdi Madubuike (IR, neck), CB Marlon Humphrey (out, finger)
CLE injury report: QB Deshaun Watson (PUP, Achilles), LT Dawand Jones (IR, knee), DT Maliek Collins (questionable, oblique), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (PUP, neck), CB Martin Emerson (IR, Achilles)
Slight lean: WR Devontez Walker (CLE 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
Slight lean: WR Jerry Jeudy (BAL 25th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong fade: RB Derrick Henry (CLE first in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed, t-third in rushing TDs allowed to RBs)
Slight fade: WR Cedric Tillman (BAL ninth in receptions per game allowed to WR2s)
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NFL weather report: 20-25 mph wind, 45-55 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 BAL, average score 28-19 BAL, average margin of victory 13 points. The Ravens' last three victories in this rivalry have all been routs, including a 41-17 win in Week 2
The Scoop: Henry grinds out 70 yards and a score. Jackson throws for less than 200 yards and also runs in a TD. Judkins manages 60 yards and a touchdown. Gabriel throws for less than 100 yards (not a typo). Ravens 17-7
Kansas City at Denver (+4), o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST
The AFC West might be the most fascinating division in the league down the stretch. The NFC West should be a three-way dogfight and the NFC North arguably has four viable contenders for the crown, depending on what you think about the Bears and Vikings, but the AFC West has the perennial champ on the mat and staring up at two tough foes as it tries to beat the 10-count. I kind of broke that boxing metaphor to shoehorn the Chargers in there, but you get the idea. At 5-4, Kansas City is in somewhat uncharted territory (they had a 3-4 start in 2021 only to go 9-1 the rest of the way, but that was also the only time in the last six seasons they didn't end up representing the AFC in the Super Bowl ... hmm) but they come out of their bye mostly healthy. The defense has surprisingly been leading the way for the most part — KC is 5-1 when holding the opposition to 20 points or less — but in three games since Rashee Rice re-joined the party, the offense has averaged 26.7 points and 390.3 yards a contest. Patrick Mahomes got shut down by the Bills in a Week 9 loss, though, and his big performances this season have all come against bad secondaries. That bodes really well for a Thanksgiving day game against the Cowboys but not so much here, even if Patrick Surtain won't be on the field. Still, if Kansas City can win, it's only one game back of Denver (and yes, fine, the Chargers too) in the loss column.
Another week, another narrow escape for Bo Nix and the Broncos, who have reeled off seven straight wins to take control of the division. Five of those seven victories have been by a single score, though, including a somewhat inexplicable 10-7 nailbiter over the Raiders in Week 10. Pessimists will say a true contender wouldn't struggle to put away a team like that, even if they're a divisional rival; Al Davis would say, "Just win, baby." Al won more Super Bowls than I did, so I'll defer to his judgment on that one. This is a key game for Denver, and not just because of who they're playing. J.K. Dobbins's warranty finally expired, and the oft-injured RB could be out a while with a foot issue. That puts a Sean Payton running game firmly in the hands of rookie RJ Harvey, who has the talent to seize the starting job and not give it back. If he can keep the chains moving the way Dobbins has done, while adding a little more big-play ceiling, that should be more than enough support for the Broncos' elite pass rush (they've got 46 sacks through 10 games. Second place is the Steelers and Seahawks, with 32 in nine) and shutdown secondary to keep the team in position for its first division title since Peyton Manning's last season.
Key Info
KC injury report: RB Isiah Pacheco (out, knee)
DEN injury report: RB J.K. Dobbins (out, foot), LG Ben Powers (IR, bicep), LB Alex Singleton (out, illness), CB Patrick Surtain (out, pectoral)
Slight lean: WR Xavier Worthy (DEN 25th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Slight lean: RB RJ Harvey (KC 25th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Strong fade: RB Kareem Hunt (DEN third in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed)
Slight fade: WR Courtland Sutton (KC sixth in DVOA vs. WR2)
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NFL weather report: 10-20 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 KC, average score 22-20 KC, average margin of victory 13 points. Both Bronco victories have come in their last two home games in this rivalry, although one of them was a 38-0 rout in Week 18 of last season when KC had Carson Wentz under center and rested their starters
The Scoop: Hunt gains 60 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 230 yards and two scores, finding Travis Kelce and Worthy. Harvey breaks out with 110 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Nix throws for less than 200 yards and a second touchdown to Troy Franklin, but his attempt to put together a late drive to tie or win it ends on a Trent McDuffie INT. Kansas City 24-21
SUNDAY NIGHT
Detroit (+2.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST
Weirdly for two teams that seem like perennial contenders to meet in the NFC championship, the Lions and Eagles haven't actually faced each other in a playoff game since the 1995 season, when Rodney Peete had one of the all-time revenge games during a 58-37 Philly win in the wild-card round. Anyway, the Lions are technically on top of the NFC North thanks to their win over the Bears in Week 2, but losses to the Packers and Vikings could make things very complicated down the road. Detroit's been alternating wins and losses while navigating the toughest part of their schedule, which ends Sunday night — two of their next three games are against the Giants and Cowboys. Jared Goff has a 74.2 percent completion rate, 8.6 YPA and 11:1 TD:INT over his last five games, while Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery remain the best backfield duo in the league, but the defense isn't always holding up its end of the bargain. Injuries, particularly in the secondary, have led to too many big plays by the opposition, and the Lions are in the bottom 10 in TD passes allowed and red-zone efficiency. While corner D.J. Reed has a chance to return this week, Terrion Arnold's back on the shelf, and safety Kerby Joseph will miss a fourth consecutive game.
While Goff's been red hot, Jalen Hurts has been nearly as sharp for the Eagles, only without ever getting much respect for it. Over the last six games he's posted a 67.7 percent completion rate, 8.4 YPA and 13:1 TD:INT, but all you hear about the Philly offense is tush push this, brotherly shove that. They basically already have the NFC East title in the bag — they have double the winning percentage of the second-place Cowboys — so the stretch run will just be for testing themselves against potential playoff opponents, and keeping everyone healthy, happy and rested. Saquon Barkley's topped 100 scrimmage yards in back-to-back games, A.J. Brown was heating up prior to his minor hamstring strain, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert seem locked in, and during the team's current three-game win streak, the defense has racked up 10 sacks and four takeaways.
Key Info
DET injury report: TE Sam LaPorta (out, back), TE Brock Wright (questionable, ankle), LT Taylor Decker (questionable, shoulder), LG Christian Mahogany (IR, leg), RT Penei Sewell (questionable, ankle), CB Terrion Arnold (out, concussion), CB D.J. Reed (IR, hamstring), CB Amik Robertson (questionable, hamstring), S Kerby Joseph (out, knee)
PHI injury report: no fantasy-relevant injuries
Slight lean: RB Jahmyr Gibbs (PHI t-25th in rushing TDs allowed, 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB)
Slight lean: WR A.J. Brown (DET 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong fade: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (PHI second in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: WR Jahan Dotson (DET fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)
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NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 30-40 percent chance of rain
The Scoop: Gibbs racks up 110 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving, while Montgomery adds 50 yards and a TD. Goff throws for 250 yards and a second touchdown to Jameson Williams. Barkley picks up 80 yards. Hurts throws for less than 200 yards and tosses scores to Brown and Goedert while running one in himself, but it's not quite enough. Lions 28-21
MONDAY NIGHT
Dallas at Las Vegas (+3.5), o/u 50.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST
What an awful, chaotic bye week for the Cowboys. The team shed serious draft capital to try to fix the league's most broken defense by bringing in Quinnen Williams and also picking up Logan Wilson at a discount, (though Jerry Jones didn't both to add anything to the secondary, the unit's weakest area), but then the Marshawn Kneeland tragedy overshadowed everything else going on in Dallas. It's impossible to predict how the team will respond, so I won't even try to massage the numbers to account for it, but we've already seen that Dak Prescott and the offense can make up for the defense's issues when everything's clicking on that side of the ball. The playoffs aren't a realistic goal for the Cowboys, especially looking at their second-half schedule, but climbing back to .500 and messing with other teams' playoff scenarios just might be.
The Raiders also aren't thinking playoffs. They're probably already scouting the 2026 quarterback class. They still have eight more games to play, though, much as they might want to hit fast forward on 2025. Geno Smith has been picked off at least once in five of the last six games, but with a healthy Brock Bowers back in action and Ashton Jeanty getting more comfortable as a pass-catcher, the veteran QB may not feel as compelled to force the ball downfield to try to make something happen. The defense has been surprisingly OK, sitting in the top 10 in yards per play allowed, but being stuck on the field takes its toll. The last three games, Vegas is last in time of possession at an stunning 23:35. Smith's posted strong numbers against the two weak secondaries he's faced this season (289 passing yards and three TDs against the Commanders in Week 3, and 284 yards and four scores against the Jags in Week 9) so he could easily pop here, but he's also entirely capable of being the rare quarterback who doesn't torch this defense.
Key Info
DAL injury report: LG Tyler Smith (questionable, knee), EDGE Dante Fowler (questionable, shoulder), CB Trevon Diggs (IR, concussion), S Malik Hooker (IR, toe), S Donovan Wilson (questionable, elbow), S Juanyeh Thomas (NFI, migraines), S Alijah Clark (questionable, ribs)
LV injury report: LT Kolton Miller (IR, ankle)
Slight lean: WR George Pickens (LV 25th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Strong lean: QB Geno Smith (DAL 30th in passing DVOA, 29th in passing yards per game allowed, t-31st in passing TDs allowed to QBs)
Strong lean: WR Tyler Lockett (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
Strong lean: WR Tre Tucker (DAL 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: TE Jake Ferguson (LV third in receptions per game allowed to TEs)
No LV fades. The DAL defense has a long way to go just to get to merely bad
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NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: Javonte Williams piles up 110 combined yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 280 yards and three scores, two to Pickens (who tops 100 yards) and one to CeeDee Lamb. Jeanty manages 70 yards and a touchdown. Smith throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Tucker, with the Dallas pass rush getting very emotional on every one of its five sacks. Cowboys 31-17
THURSDAY NIGHT
N.Y. Jets (+13) at New England, o/u 43.0
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST
After losing their first seven games, the Jets have improbably won two straight despite ripping the heart out of their defense at the trade deadline. Granted, the victories came against a three-win Bengals squad and a two-win Browns outfit that are right there with Gang Green in the hunt for a spot at the top of the 2026 draft, but it's still surprising, especially considering the state of the Jets offense. Aaron Glenn continues to waffle on whether Justin Fields will remain his starting QB, but how much does it really matter when the team is running an offensive scheme that Tobin Rote would have been right at home in? Fields has completed single-digit passes three times in the last four games, which seems impossible in 2025. If he were running wild every game that lack of aerial production might be a little more palatable, but he hasn't topped 31 rushing yards or scored a rushing TD since Week 4. The Jets' offense is basically held together by Breece Hall, and the only healthy wideouts right now are a Colts castoff, a Texans and Eagles castoff, a fourth-round rookie and a 27-year-old journeyman on his fourth team in the last five seasons. Last week's win over Cleveland was the product of two kick return TDs, and while I don't like to go out on a limb with these sorts of predictions, I'm not sure that's repeatable.
The Patriots extended their win streak to seven games last week by getting past the Bucs in Tampa Bay, keeping them clear of the Bills in the AFC East. New England's scored at least 23 points in all seven wins, and while Drake Maye is earning his accolades by throwing multiple TDs in five straight, last week was the TreVeyon Henderson Show, which finally got out of previews to make a dazzling, if belated, debut. With Rhamondre Stevenson out of the picture, Henderson erupted for 147 rushing yards and two scores on only 14 carries, which should finally convince coach Mike Vrabel that the rookie the team invested the 38th overall pick in is capable of carrying the load in the backfield. Maye's tendency to spread the ball around when he throws it might be frustrating fantasy GMs — last week it was Mack Hollins' turn to post big yardage, while rookie Kyle Williams scored his first career TD on a 72-yard catch-and-run — but it's making life even tougher on secondaries. The Pats defense hasn't been great against the pass either, but it's giving up the fewest rushing yards a game in the league and sits sixth in PPG allowed, so something's working at least.
Key Info
NYJ injury report: RB Braelon Allen (IR, knee), WR Garrett Wilson (out, knee), WR Josh Reynolds (IR, hip), RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (IR, tricep), EDGE Will McDonald (questionable, quadricep), DT Harrison Phillips (questionable, foot), CB Azareye'h Thomas (out, concussion), S Andre Cisco (IR, pectoral)
NE injury report: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (out, toe), RB Terrell Jennings (questionable, knee), WR Kayshon Boutte (out, hamstring), LB Christian Elliss (out, hip)
Strong lean: WR Arian Smith (or whoever you think might get more than a couple targets, if anybody) (NE 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight lean: QB Drake Maye (NYJ 31st in passing DVOA, t-22nd in passing TDs allowed, 28th in rushing yards allowed to QBs)
Slight fade: TE Mason Taylor (NE 10th in DVOA vs. TE)
No NE fades. The Jets defense wasn't particularly good at anything before trading away its two best players
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NFL weather report: temperature in the high 30s, 1-10 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 NE, average score 22-15 NE, average margin of victory 13 points. The Jets have won only twice in this rivalry since 2016 (16-2 NE), but both wins came in the 2024 calendar year – a 17-3 victory in Bill Belichick's final game during Week 18 of the 2023 season, and a 24-3 win in Week 3 of the actual 2024 season
The Scoop: Hall gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Fields starts again and throws for well less than 200 yards. Henderson pops for 100 scrimmage yards and a TD. Maye throws for 260 yards and three scores, hitting Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry and Hollins. Patriots 31-13
Last week's record: 10-4, 7-6-1 ATS, 8-6 o/u
2025 record: 97-51-1 (.655), 77-69-3 ATS (.527), 71-77-1 o/u (.480)
