NFL Odds: NFL Week 6 Line Movement and Odds Changes

NFL Line Movement: NFL Week 6

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention. 

On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.  

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NFL Week 6 Odds (Opening/Current) 

Week 6 NFL Lines 

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (Eagles -7.0 O/U 43.5) / (Eagles -7.5 O/U 41.0)

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (Broncos -6.5 O/U 42.5) / (Broncos -7.0 O/U 43.5)

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (Chargers -1.5 O/U 45.5) / (Chargers -4.0 O/U 43.0)

Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (Ravens -5.5 O/U 48.5) / (Rams -7.5 O/U 45.0)

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Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (Cowboys -1.5 O/U 46.5) / (Cowboys -3.5 O/U 49.5)

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers -6.5 O/U 42.5) / (Steelers -5.0 O/U 38.0)

Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts (Cardinals -1.5 O/U 47.5) / (Colts -6.5 O/U 47.5)

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (Patriots -3.0 O/U 43.5) / (Patriots -3.5 O/U 46.0)

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (Jaguars -1.0 O/U 46.5) / (Jaguars -1.0 O/U 46.5)

Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders (Raiders -3.0 O/U 44.5) / (Raiders -4.5 O/U 41.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (Packers -2.5 O/U 48.5) / (Packers -14.5 O/U 44.5)

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bucs -1.5 O/U 48.5) / (Bucs -3.0 O/U 47.5)

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs -3.0 O/U 48.5) / (Chiefs -2.0 O/U 50.0)

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (Bills -5.5 O/U 48.5) / (Bills -3.5 O/U 48.5)

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (Commanders -4.5 O/U 48.5) / (Commanders -4.5 O/U 50.0)

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NFL Week 6 Key Injury News

QB - Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, J.J. McCarthy, Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz

RB - Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Tyrone Tracy, Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, Omarion Hampton, Bucky Irving, Trey Benson, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Aaron Jones, Tyrone Tracy, Braelon Allen, Jaylen Warren

WR - Malik Nabers, Ricky Pearsall, Darnell Mooney, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Darius Slayton, Jalen Coker, Cedric Tillman, CeeDee Lamb, Jauan Jennings, Brandon Aiyuk, Terry McLaurin

TE -  Colston Loveland, George Kittle, Brock Bowers

Other notables

OL Landon Dickerson, LB Matt Milano, LB Jack Sanborn, DB Terrion Arnold, S Justin Reid, S Kyle Hamilton, LB Roquan Smith, OL Ronnie Stanley, DT Ed Oliver, OL Taylor Decker, OL Joe Alt, OL Rashawn Slater 

NFL Week 6 Odds Observations

• The highest spread is Packers -14.5 vs Bengals 
• The lowest spreads are Lions at Chiefs -2.0/-2.5, Seahawks at Jaguars -1.0/-1.5 
• The highest total games are Chiefs/Lions (52.5), Commanders/Bears (50.5), Cowboys/Panthers (49.5); the lowest total is Browns/Steelers 37.5-38.5
• There are 7 road favorites in Week 6
• There is a heavy concentration of totals between 43.5-45.5 points
• The highest team totals are the Packers, Colts, Bills, Commanders, and Rams
• The lowest team totals are Bengals, Browns, Giants, Titans, Jets

NFL Week 6 Line Movement

A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most. 

Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens

Last week had the most games with significant line moves in the three years I have been writing this article, and this week looks to be the least. But even though there are just 3 games highlighted this week, the line moves are massive and rightfully so.

This was a potential Super Bowl matchup before the season, but the Ravens' injuries have ravaged this team, led by Lamar Jackson. But we also have multiple injuries on the defensive side that killed the Ravens last week as they lost to the Texans at home 44-10. The Ravens' defense is one of the worst in the league right now. 

The Ravens originally opened as -5.5 home favorites, and it reopened Rams -5.5, but it did not stop moving as the Rams are now -7.5. That is a full 13-point swing, and the fact this line has crossed over so many key numbers and through 7 will tell you where the oddsmakers are rating Baltimore right now. The Rams are coming off a brutal home loss to the 49ers on Thursday night football, so they have extra rest.

The total opened 48.5 and has dropped to 45.5. 

Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts

This game has a few factors that have impacted the line movement in the way of the Colts. The Colts are the team that has seen their power rating jump the most since the start of the season. They are reaching uncharted territory being 7 point home favorites, but they smoked the Raiders last week 40-6 and now get the Cardinals who had one of the worst meltdowns in history against the Titans. There is also the injury concern to Kyler Murray to consider. 

The Colts opened as -1.5 home favorites and reopened -3.5 on 9/30. It moved to -4.5 immediately, then jumped to -5.5, and -6.5 after the Week 5 results. I think we see this number continue to climb in favor of the Colts past the key number of 7.  

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers

The Ravens and Bengals are in the same boat as they have lost their starting quarterbacks while also having seen their defenses sink to the bottom of the NFL. The Packers are a part of this line movement, but 80-90 percent of it comes from how bad the Bengals are playing right now. 

The Packers were still just -2.5 home favorites on 9/21, but then it saw a massive move to -13.5 when the line reopened on 9/30. The number has bounced around from -14.0 to -15.0 over the last few days before settling in at -14.5. 

The total opened 48.0 and has dropped to 44.5. If you project what this game was projected to be originally it was Packers 26-22. It is now at Packers 30-15.