Best NFL Week 15 PrizePicks Plays - Thursday Night Football
Falling one Omarion Hampton receiving yard short of the full Monday night sweep was painful, and what made it worse was that he actually made an immediate impact in the receiving game, finding paydirt early on a designed pass play. Saquon Barkley and Philadelphia's explosive run game performed exactly as expected against the mediocre run defense of the Chargers, and that's what I should have laddered. Still, 20 fantasy points from Cameron Dicker was the cherry on top. I assumed Los Angeles would be more conservative with Justin Herbert injured, and that proved to be the case -- and in a big way.
Best PrizePicks Picks current as of 6:15 AM ET Thursday.
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Baker Mayfield 219.5 Passing Yards (MORE)
Am I missing something here? Yes, Mayfield has been shaky and banged up, and the offense overall has sputtered. However, he gets his All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs back from a one-game absence, and even more importantly, this will be the first game all season in which he seemingly will have all of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan and Tez Johnson available. With those weapons, Philip Rivers might be able to stumble into 220 passing yards.
I was one of the biggest advocates of Atlanta's defense early in the season. At their peak they looked like a near top-5 unit, but things have gone downhill for a while. They look checked out, and over their last five games they allowed the third most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks at 273.4. That number is even more alarming when you consider two of those games were against the Jets and Panthers, and another was against the run-heavy Colts. I think 250 yards or more are possible, so I will be going the ladder route here.
Bijan Robinson 117.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (MORE)
For full transparency, I'm a Buccaneers fan, and I'll be at this game shivering through the frigid sub-50 degree temperatures. Don't laugh, that's cold for us Floridians. But no need to worry about fan bias here. In fact, I'm quite the opposite. I've been successfully targeting the Todd Bowles pass-funnel defense for as long as I can remember -- even last week when they made Tyler Shough look like a young Drew Brees.
What I'm not used to is attacking the Tampa Bay run defense, but this year it has been abysmal. Teams have been able to double Vita Vea and run off-tackle zone plays like nothing. Add in Robinson's ability of making chunk plays out of nothing, and the fact that our linebackers have struggled to cover RBs out of the backfield all season, and you get a perfect setup for him to repeat -- or exceed -- the 124 yards from scrimmage he racked up against the Buccaneers in Week 1.
Before anyone gets scared off by Robinson only rushing for 24 yards in that matchup, keep in mind Tampa Bay's defense was fully healthy then, and Calijah Kancey will not suit up this time around.
Darnell Mooney 7.5 Fantasy Score (MORE)
Kirk Cousins has never been a mobile quarterback, and since the Achilles injury his pocket movement looks even more limited. That typically spells trouble against any pass rush with a pulse. Fortunately for him, Tampa Bay's pass rush has been nonexistent lately, which should give him plenty of time to wheel and deal. With Drake London out again, expect Mooney and Kyle Pitts to be peppered with targets, with Robinson mixing in as well.
I love the value on Mooney here. His best routes are the slant type short routes, and Tampa corner Zyon McCollum has been getting beat on inside route trees all season. We could see some very easy pitch-and-catch production.
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