This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Best Bets for Week 4
I had a mixed bag last week last with Amon-Ra St. Brown (+110) and Justin Fields (+235) both finding the end zone, though I only went one-for-three on player props. I am tempted to go back to the well with Michael Pittman and Colby Parkinson overs on their receiving props, but I will resist. Let's take a look at Week 4.
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Player Anytime TDs
James Conner, ARI -135 (FanDuel)
The Commanders have to travel a good distance on a short week. With an over/under of 50.5 and the Cardinals as 3.5 point favorites, I would expect this line to price more towards the -180 mark. Conner scored in each of the first two games, before being shut down last week by the Lions, the top team against opposing running backs for fantasy purposes. This game script should find Conner getting around 20 touches and the usual goal line work for Arizona.
George Kittle, +190 (FanDuel)
I like to look for discrepancies in lines and this one jumped out immediately to me. Kittle is only +130 on other sites, so +190 it looks like a great value. I would jump on this sooner than later. There is the injury concern here and it's possible Kittle doesn't have his normal share of offensive snaps as a result. However, Jauan Jennings is no longer a secret, and will attract the New England defense's attention. The 49ers are 10-point favorites at home against the Patriots. Over the last two seasons leading up to this one, Kittle has 17 touchdowns in 31 games, suggesting that +190 odds are pretty solid.
Jakobi Meyers +300 (DraftKings)
I always like to take someone who is something of a long shot and Meyers fits that bill this week. He's as low as +190 on other sites so he's another player who gets great value if you shopping around for this line. Meyers quietly has 14 touchdowns over 30 games the last two years coming into this season and had 19 red zone targets last season (three this season through the first three games). I'd sprinkle a little on Meyers scoring 2+ touchdowns on DraftKings as well where he's at +2800 (+1200 other sites).
Player Props
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C.J. Stroud Over 259.5 Passing Yards -130 (BetMGM)
So here's my favorite prop of the week by a mile. The Jaguars play on the road again (THEY LOST TO MY BILLS) and rank 30th against the quarterback position for fantasy purposes. While it sounds weird, I actually like a big number here given Stroud has gone under this mark in two of his three games. The Texans have an elite set of receivers, and if I told you 2-3 years ago Stefon Diggs wasn't their best receiver (Nico Collins and Tank Dell have an argument) you would have never believed me. I'd also entertain a higher yardage total at plus odds; shop around for those.
Sam Darnold Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown -143 (BetRivers)
I love the Darnold story and am very happy for his success. That being said, this is a road game and he's thrown picks in two of his three games so far. The Packers have a whopping seven interceptions to start the season, including at least two every game. I like the Stroud prop slightly better but this one is a close second given the stats.
Bo Nix Under 189.5 Passing Yards (BetRivers)
I have shares of Nix in dynasty/keeper leagues so I definitely root for the guy. However, this is a tough road matchup (the Broncos are on the road across the country for their second consecutive game). Plus, the Jets rank No.1 against opposing quarterbacks for fantasy purposes. While the Jets defense has allowed the yardage "over" against opposing quarterbacks in two of three games this season, we should note that both of those were on the road and not at home.
