NFL Picks: Backing the Rams and Seahawks

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Updated on September 30, 2011 1:40AM EST

Week 3 was a strong one as four of us went 11-5, while Erickson went 8-8, and we won all five of our consensus picks, four of which happened to be best bets. This week is odd, in that both Pianowski and DDD had a lot of trouble picking the games, while I found it easy. (Note that's not necessarily predictive of who will have the better week). And DDD and Pianow are going head to head with their best bets. Incidentally, Pianow's off to a great start at 29-17-2.

Enjoy the games.

	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
Lions +1.5 at Cowboys	Cowboys	Lions	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
Panthers +6.5 at Bears	Bears	Panthers	Bears	Panthers	Bears
Saints -7 at Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Saints
Titans pick 'em at Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns	Titans
Bills -3 at Bengals	Bills	Bengals	Bengals	Bills	Bengals
Vikings -1.5 at Chiefs	Chiefs	Vikings	Vikings	Chiefs	Chiefs
49ers +10 at Eagles	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	Eagles
Redskins -1.5 at Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
Steelers +4 at Texans	Texans	Steelers	Texans	Steelers	Steelers
Falcons -4.5 at Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Giants -1 at Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	Giants	Cardinals	Giants
Broncos +12.5 at Packers	Packers	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos
Patriots -4 at Raiders	Patriots	Patriots	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders
Dolphins +7.5 at Chargers	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Chargers	Dolphins
Jets +3 at Ravens	Ravens	Jets	Ravens	Ravens	Jets
Colts +10 at Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Colts	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Colts
Best Bet	Texans	Lions	Bengals	Chargers

Enjoy the games.

	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
Lions +1.5 at Cowboys	Cowboys	Lions	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
Panthers +6.5 at Bears	Bears	Panthers	Bears	Panthers	Bears
Saints -7 at Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Saints
Titans pick 'em at Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns	Titans
Bills -3 at Bengals	Bills	Bengals	Bengals	Bills	Bengals
Vikings -1.5 at Chiefs	Chiefs	Vikings	Vikings	Chiefs	Chiefs
49ers +10 at Eagles	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	Eagles
Redskins -1.5 at Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
Steelers +4 at Texans	Texans	Steelers	Texans	Steelers	Steelers
Falcons -4.5 at Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Giants -1 at Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	Giants	Cardinals	Giants
Broncos +12.5 at Packers	Packers	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos
Patriots -4 at Raiders	Patriots	Patriots	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders
Dolphins +7.5 at Chargers	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Chargers	Dolphins
Jets +3 at Ravens	Ravens	Jets	Ravens	Ravens	Jets
Colts +10 at Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Colts	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Colts
Best Bet	Texans	Lions	Bengals	Chargers	Cowboys
Last Week's Record	8-8	11-5	11-5	11-5	11-5
2011 Record	23-23-2	29-17-2	25-21-2	26-20-2	24-22-2
Best Bet Record	2-1	1-1-1	2-1	2-1	1-1-1
Consensus Pick Record	7-3
2010 Record	129-122-5	134-117-5	126-125-5	136-115-5	134-117-5
2009 Record	123-130-3	132-121-3	131-122-3	130-123-3	126-127-3
2008 Record	132-114-10	128-118-10	124-122-10	125-121-10	130-116-10
2007 Record	127-120	118-129	127-120	N/A	130-117
2006 Record	118-129	N/A	139-108	N/A	N/A
2005 Record	121-126	N/A	127-120	N/A	N/A
2004 Record	124-124	N/A	130-118	N/A	N/A
2003 Record	121-126	118-129	124-123	N/A	N/A
2002 Record	113-136	123-126	141-108	N/A	N/A
2001 Record	124-113	117-120	118-119	N/A	N/A
2000 Record	123-117	134-106	141-99	N/A	N/A

Consensus Picks

This week we have two consensus picks: the Rams and Seahawks. We went 5-0 on consensus picks in Week 3 to put us at 7-3 on the year. We went 32-21-1 on consensus picks in 2010.

Comments:

Writer	Comment
Erickson	PIT-HOU is a matchup of two teams going in opposite direction of their reputations. ... The Monday night game is an Admiral Ackbar line. ... So far I'm 0-and-3 in picking against the spread on my own team, the Bengals. This is the first time that they're playing an above-average offense. ... This is the first time this year that the Bears have been favorites. ... The Chiefs really suck, and the Vikings are better than their 0-3 record, yet I still think this is a "every dog has it's day" game. ... I really was hoping the Lions were 3-point dogs, at which point I probably would have taken them - so that's a pretty good indication that if this were a confidence pool, I'd place the minimum number of confidence points on that game.
Pianowski	I found this to be far and away the hardest card of the season.
Liss	These picks came easily to me. I particularly like the Bengals, Vikings and Bears.
Stopa	It's rare to be able to fade the public with a heavy favorite, but that's what I'm doing with the Chargers and Bucs. Everyone is so disgusted with the Chargers underperforming they've become good value, with the line going down since it opened at -10. I see a 38-10 score, and Tony Sparano getting fired this week. Meanwhile, the Bucs aren't getting any respect from the public, but the defense is legit, and Curtis Painter isn't. I can't help but think the Colts loss to the Steelers on prime time was their "last hurrah" of 2011... I'm picking like a square with the Bills, but I think there's a huge difference between -3 and -3.5. If the Bengals were getting the extra half-point, I'd take them, but without it, I think the Bills are the better team, will win the game, and I'll hope the 3 points results in nothing worse than a push. (Of course, that's probably what every drunken idiot thinks.) ... The public is all over the Saints, predictably so, yet the line went from 9 to 7, meaning the sharps are on the Jaguars. I'll side with the sharps there, as Brees usually has a couple bad games a year on grass... It's a similar dynamic with Packers/Broncos, where the line went from more than 14 to less than 14 even though the public is all over Green Bay... The Cowboys need this game more than the Lions, and this seems like a spot where Detroit loses outright... Falcons at Seahawks presents the two teams with perhaps the most pronounced home/road splits in the NFL. The Falcons and Matt Ryan struggle on the road, whereas the Seahawks enjoy a significant home-field edge... I wanted to take the Texans to bounce back at home against a Steelers team whose offensive line is in shambles, but I can't lay more than a FG against a Super Bowl contender with a schizophrenic team like the Texans... I struggled with Vikings/Chiefs, Redskins/Rams and Giants/Cardinals. In each case, the road team is the better team, but the inferior home team isn't getting any points.
Del Don	While most weeks I debate my best bet among a few games, I struggled coming up with a single one this week.

The players:

•Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

•Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

•Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

•Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Working the Wire. Roots for the Bills.

•Dalton Del Don: RotoWire Senior Staff Writer. 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Game Capsules and the Barometer. Covers the Eagles and roots for the 49ers.