This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Week 11 NFL Picks and Player Props
I really don't like that we only have three "late" games to choose from Sunday afternoon. Then again, my Bills are going to find out how good the Chiefs are, and the Seahawks at the 49ers gives us another excellent matchup. Four teams on bye this week, but unfortunately we get six teams on bye next week. Thanks, NFL!
Player Anytime Touchdowns
De'Von Achane, MIA -125 DraftKings
First these odds are as high as -205 and -180 on two other sites so I'd grab this sooner than later. He has three touchdowns in his last three games and has scored two of them in the air. This is a great home matchup against the Raiders, who rank 26th against opposing running backs. Look for him to get his usual 15-plus touches in this game.
Audric Estime, DEN +175 FanDuel
Estime got 14 carries last week and should handle any of the goal line work for the Broncos. Sean Payton loves this kid and has vowed to continue to get him more touches going forward. Atlanta ranks around league-average against opposing running backs, but they have to travel to Denver and play in the thin air. These odds post at only +114 on other sites. I like pairing Estime with Bo Nix (+290 FanDuel, four rushing touchdowns in 10 games) if you look to diversify your risk here while giving yourself a high ceiling.
Dalton Schultz +350 FanDuel, Tank Dell +230 DraftKings
I like taking both of these guys in the battle of Texas as we need just one of them to score to profit. Dell looks like he's back to 100 percent after logging a whole practice Friday, and he has two touchdowns in his last five games. Oddly, Schultz hasn't scored this season but that seems like an anomaly for someone who has 18 touchdowns in 47 previous games over his last three seasons. I realize this game is the MNF game so don't surprised when this re-prices on Monday. The Texans are a full touchdown favorite on the road in a game with an over/under of 42.5
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Player Props
Sam Darnold Over 0.5 Interceptions -105 BetRivers
I've written multiple times this season what a great story Darnold has provided, and I'm pretty sure the Jets wish they had handled his development (and offensive line) with greater care. That being said, he has five interceptions in his last two games and has thrown interceptions in seven out of nine games this season (78 percent of his games). Those odds alone should suggest this line looks low, and Amani Hooker has been a ball hawk with three interceptions this season. Here's my favorite prop bet of the week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 72.5 Receiving Yards - 113 FanDuel
This line is 76.5 on other sites and considering he hasn't eclipsed this mark in five of his last six games, it smells fishy. Therefore, I'm on the over here and think the sites have taken into account that Jacksonville ranks 27th against opposing wide receivers. St. Brown only has two 100-yard games this season but has also scored in seven straight games. I see a path to doing a parlay here with an anytime touchdown along with a 100-yard game and you can get those odds at +355 on DraftKings.
Tee Higgins Over 51.5 Receiving Yards -113 FanDuel
Higgins practiced fully Friday and has no injury designation for the upcoming tilt with the Chargers. With a Week 12 bye, I think this says something considering the Bengals could have left him out and given him another week to recover. Ja'Marr Chase will draw a lot of coverage coming off of a 17-11-264-3 performance and sits only 19 yards away from another 1,000-yard season. This is the type of prop bet that could settle before halftime.
