This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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NFL Picks and Player Props
As usual, last week was a mixed bag of results with De'Von Achane scoring a touchdown while Audric Estime inexplicably saw a decrease in touches. The two receivers for the Texans failed to come through as C.J. Stroud's struggles continue (two touchdown passes in his last five games). I went two-for-three with the prop bets as both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tee Higgins easily shattered their receiving yardage overs . I even suggested a parlay with St. Brown over 100 receiving yards with an anytime touchdown which hit for +355. However, I also lost the Sam Darnold interception prop as he avoided throwing a pick after giving at least one up in five of his last six games.
Anytime Touchdowns
Brian Robinson -150 FanDuel
Robinson has quietly had a solid fantasy season with seven rushing touchdowns, while scoring in six of his eight games, which makes these odds seem generous. A home matchup against the Cowboys is about as good as it gets between their injuries on defense and the appearance that they have given up on the season. Dallas ranks 31st against opposing running backs and these odds are -245 on other sites, which shows the value here. Zach Ertz (+260, FanDuel) is another player I like in this game.
Christian McCaffrey -135 DraftKings
This may totally become a sucker bet but I can't remember a time where his odds were this low since he joined the 49ers. While he hasn't scored in either of his first two games back, McCaffrey has received 19 and 23 touches showing he's healthy and handling a full workload. The Packers rank a mediocre 18th against opposing running backs. In the Divisional matchup last season, McCaffrey had 128 yards from scrimmage and two rushing touchdowns. 2+ touchdowns is +460 on FanDuel for CMC.
Xavier Worthy +240 FanDuel
I love this pick for a few different reasons. The Chiefs are an 11-point road favorite and should bounce back after a disappointing loss last week in Buffalo. Worthy has scored in four out of 10 games this season and should get at least one carry as well. There's a good chance he gets a long touchdown in this game, so a parlay with his receiving yards and an anytime touchdown makes sense (50+ receiving yards and a touchdown prices at +455 on FanDuel).
Player Props
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Cade Otton Under 50.5 Receiving Yards -120 DraftKings, BetMGM
Otton has been excellent this season, especially considering all of the other disappointments at the position. This week he has the toughest matchup on paper against the Giants who rank No.1 against the tight end position. Teams are aware of this and going back and looking at the advanced stats, teams have not even tested the Giants defense with their tight end. Pat Freiermuth was only targeted 9.1 percent of his routes run, Zach Ertz was targeted on only 6.3 percent of his routes run, you get the trend here. Those are low numbers and Mike Evans on his return will likely take at least eight targets out of the mix.
Rome Odunze Over 40.5 receiving Yards -130 BetMGM
This line is 45.5 on three other sites so I'd grab this line while you can. Odunze has at least six targets in his four games since the bye, and has hit this over in three of those games. The Vikings are an excellent matchup, ranking 30th against opposing wide receivers. Plus the Bears have played better at home going 4-2 while going 0-4 on the road.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 91.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -115 BetMGM
Gibbs is one of the more electric players in the league and is a threat for a big play every time he touches the ball. The Lions have used him a lot between the 20s, allowing him to produce big plays whether by running or catching the ball. He's gone over this mark in five of his last six games and this is a good matchup against the Colts who rank 23rd against opposing running backs.
