NFL Picks: Broncos, Vikings, Bills, Raiders and Seahawks

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Updated on September 23, 2011 2:37AM EST

Pianow won the week at 10-5, to take a three-game lead at 18-12-2 on the year. No one else is over .500. We have a lot of picks in common this week, including five consensus choices and six instances where the split was 4:1.

Enjoy the games.

	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
Jaguars +3.5 at Panthers	Panthers	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Panthers
Broncos +7 at Titans	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos
Texans +4 at Saints	Texans	Texans	Saints	Saints	Saints
Lions -3.5 at Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings
Giants +5* at Eagles	Giants	Giants	Giants	Eagles	Eagles
Patriots -9 at Bills	Bills	Bills	Bills	Bills	Bills
Dolphins +2 at Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns	Dolphins	Dolphins
49ers +2.5 at Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	49ers	Bengals
Jets -3.5 at Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders
Ravens -4 at Rams	Ravens	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
Chiefs +15 at Chargers	Chargers	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
Falcons +1 at Buccaneers	Falcons	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers
Packers -3.5 at Bears	Bears	Packers	Bears	Bears	Bears
Cardinals -3.5 at Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Steelers -11 at Colts	Steelers	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts
Redskins +4.5* at Cowboys	Cowboys	Redskins	Redskins	Cowboys	Cowboys
Best Bet	Seahawks	Bills	Vikings	Broncos	Bengals
Last Week's Record	9-6-1	10-5-1	6-9-1	6-9-1	6-9-1
2011 Record	15-15-2	18-12-2	14-16-2	15-15-2	13-17-2
Best Bet Record	1-1	0-1-1	1-1	1-1	1-0-1
Consensus Pick Record	1-3
2010 Record	129-122-5	134-117-5	126-125-5	136-115-5	134-117-5
2009 Record	123-130-3	132-121-3	131-122-3	130-123-3	126-127-3
2008 Record	132-114-10	128-118-10	124-122-10

Enjoy the games.

	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
Jaguars +3.5 at Panthers	Panthers	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Panthers
Broncos +7 at Titans	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos
Texans +4 at Saints	Texans	Texans	Saints	Saints	Saints
Lions -3.5 at Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings
Giants +5* at Eagles	Giants	Giants	Giants	Eagles	Eagles
Patriots -9 at Bills	Bills	Bills	Bills	Bills	Bills
Dolphins +2 at Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns	Dolphins	Dolphins
49ers +2.5 at Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	49ers	Bengals
Jets -3.5 at Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders
Ravens -4 at Rams	Ravens	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
Chiefs +15 at Chargers	Chargers	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
Falcons +1 at Buccaneers	Falcons	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Buccaneers
Packers -3.5 at Bears	Bears	Packers	Bears	Bears	Bears
Cardinals -3.5 at Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Steelers -11 at Colts	Steelers	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts
Redskins +4.5* at Cowboys	Cowboys	Redskins	Redskins	Cowboys	Cowboys
Best Bet	Seahawks	Bills	Vikings	Broncos	Bengals
Last Week's Record	9-6-1	10-5-1	6-9-1	6-9-1	6-9-1
2011 Record	15-15-2	18-12-2	14-16-2	15-15-2	13-17-2
Best Bet Record	1-1	0-1-1	1-1	1-1	1-0-1
Consensus Pick Record	1-3
2010 Record	129-122-5	134-117-5	126-125-5	136-115-5	134-117-5
2009 Record	123-130-3	132-121-3	131-122-3	130-123-3	126-127-3
2008 Record	132-114-10	128-118-10	124-122-10	125-121-10	130-116-10
2007 Record	127-120	118-129	127-120	N/A	130-117
2006 Record	118-129	N/A	139-108	N/A	N/A
2005 Record	121-126	N/A	127-120	N/A	N/A
2004 Record	124-124	N/A	130-118	N/A	N/A
2003 Record	121-126	118-129	124-123	N/A	N/A
2002 Record	113-136	123-126	141-108	N/A	N/A
2001 Record	124-113	117-120	118-119	N/A	N/A
2000 Record	123-117	134-106	141-99	N/A	N/A

Consensus Picks

This week we have five consensus picks: the Broncos, Vikings, Bills, Raiders and Seahawks. We went 1-0 on consensus picks in Week 2 to put us at at 2-3 on the year. We went 32-21-1 on consensus picks in 2010.

Comments:

Writer	Comment
Erickson	Going really ugly with the best bet, but the Seahawks have one of the best home field advantages in the game, and what has Arizona really done to merit being a road favorite, with a half-point hook no less? ... Call me a square, but I would have gone up to 17 points at least on the Chargers. ... Weirdly enough, the toughest pick for me was the Steelers-Colts game. That line is so high, it just wants to make you take the Colts - it's a trap line. So I'll go along with what will probably end up being the public line.
Pianowski	New England's such a public darling; you'll have to pay the freight all year if you want to back them. The Bills have their holes and issues, but this offense is pretty good, and it should score 20-plus on the Pats . . . Home field never seems to mean that much in NFC East games. Happy to take points in those matchups, especially when the line is over 3.
Liss	Tons of home dogs, not sure I can pass them up two weeks into the season where so much is still unknown.
Stopa	This week had a recurring theme - lines of 3.5 or 4 where the team giving the points is better and, in many cases, significantly better. These all strike me as traps. I mean, what's 3.5 points when the Panthers, Jets, Ravens, Lions, Packers and Cardinals are better than the Jaguars, Raiders, Rams, Vikings, Bears, and Seahawks, respectively? Well, that's what I thought about Broncos/Bengals, Bills/Raiders, and Cardinals/Redskins last week, and despite being correct in each instance about who would win the game, the 3.5 points caused me to lose ATS. More than a FG matters, especially at home (as 4 of those 6 are home dogs). I'll take more than a FG with dogs that the public doesn't want. Remember, Vegas isn't giving it away. ... Bills/Pats is interesting because a significant majority of the public is on the Pats, as usual, yet the line has gone from 10.5 to around 9. That means the sharps are on the Bills (perhaps recognizing the Pats are 31st in the NFL in defense), so I'll side with the sharps and trust the Bills to keep it close at home. ... Similar dynamic with the Chiefs and Colts, where the line has gone down despite the public being on the Chargers and Steelers, respectively, so I'll hold my nose. ... Best bet is Broncos, who strike me as similar to the Titans yet getting more than a TD because the Titans had what will likely go down as their best game of 2011. I also love how that line moved from +4.5 to over 7.
Del Don	It feels weird giving 3.5 points with a team that's 2-16 over their last 18 games, but such is the case with the Panthers...I actually expect the Raiders to beat the Jets outright this week...The Seahawks look like a true doormat, but I can't see Arizona laying more than a field goal having to play in a tough Seattle environment...After being just three-point dogs (which turned out to be spot on) last week against the Cowboys, the 49ers are getting less than three in Cincinnati? Clearly, Vegas respects San Francisco more than I do.

The players:

•Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

•Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

•Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

•Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Working the Wire. Roots for the Bills.

•Dalton Del Don: RotoWire Senior Staff Writer. 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Game Capsules and the Barometer. Covers the Eagles and roots for the 49ers.