This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We're back at it for our Week 11 Underdog Pick'em selections. By now, we've settled into a nice rhythm so we'll just take a minute to highlight the primary tools I used to reach my picks and reference throughout the article:
Fantasy points allowed vs. Position
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Higher
Russell Wilson – higher than 222.5 passing yards
This is an interesting place to start. The Steelers-Ravens rivalry is typically defined by tough defenses and physicality, but this year has a different feel on paper. The Ravens have the arguably the most explosive offense in the league, while their pass defense is among the worst in the league.
That combination has led to the Ravens have the most extreme pass funnel in the league, as opponents have a 4.5 percent pass rate over expectation (65.4 pass rate) – the highest mark in the league. Wilson showed some inefficiency for the first time in three starts against the Commanders, but volume will be on his side with the opportunity to hit for several big plays.
DeAndre Hopkins – higher than 48.5 receiving yards
Perhaps the return of JuJu Smith-Schuster will spread out targets in Kansas City, but Hopkins has been the 1B option in the offense behind Travis Kelce even with limited time to adjust to his new team. That role doesn't mean what it has in past seasons, but this projection takes that into account.
A matchup against Buffalo isn't the easiest, particularly with the Bills' secondary fully healthy. However, the game total (46.0/46.5) suggests there will still be plenty of offense and Hopkins should play a significant part in that.
Christian McCaffrey – higher than 35.5 receiving yards
This number has unfortunately risen eight yards since earlier in the week, but this projection is still too low. In his first game of the season in Week 10, McCaffrey ran 31 routes (third most on the team behind Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings) and had a 22.6 percent targets per route rate. If the 49ers show any inclination to ease him back into action, it will almost certainly continue into rush attempts in low-leverage situations rather than his work as a receiver.
T.J. Hockenson – higher than 47.5 receiving yards
Sam Darnold has shown signs of performing closer to preseason expectations in the last two weeks by throwing five picks. All three of his picks in Week 10 came on targets to Justin Jefferson, which certainly suggests he was forcing the ball to his star receiver. The Vikings could opt to simplify things in Week 11 against a Titans team they should be able to defeat comfortably barring mistakes. That would benefit both Aaron Jones and Hockenson. Darnold has targeted Hockenson 13 times in two games since the tight end returned to action, and we should project that he remains heavily involved.
Jerry Jeudy – higher than 48.5 receiving yards
Elijah Moore- higher than 39.5 receiving yards
Jameis Winston has well-established flaws, but we know two things heading into this game. He's not afraid to air the ball out and neither is coach Kevin Stefanski. The Saints' defense hasn't provided much resistance against offenses, either rush or pass, meaning opponents can attack the unit as they prefer. The Browns have the third-highest pass cate over expectation for the season, so we can predict plenty of passing volume. Any of the Browns' pass catchers are good options, but Moore has commanded targets at a strong clip since Winston took over as the starter (26.3 percent targets per route run). Jeudy has 152 yards combined in Winston's two starts.
Lower
Kirk Cousins – lower than 242.5 passing + rushing yards
Cousins has moved the Atlanta offense effectively for most of the season, but he'll face one of the worst matchups for opposing quarterbacks this season. They've allowed only Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson to surpass Cousins' projection this season. Even without the matchup dictating that the Atlanta offense run through the ground game, the team has shown the desire to be run heavy (-4.3 percent pass rate over expectation). That leads to expectations of a modest day for Cousins.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – lower than 52.5 receiving yards
We can disagree with the usage of Smith-Njigba in the Seattle offense, but his splits with D.K. Metcalf on and off the field are striking. In the seven games that Metcalf has played this season, Smith-Njigba has averaged only 45.6 receiving yards while topping this projection only two times. It's difficult to readjust expectations given the production we've seen from him the past two weeks, but the splits speak for themselves.
J.K. Dobbins – lower than 56.5 rushing yards
There's a combination of reasons to doubt Dobbins this week. The first is the return of Gus Edwards, who earned 10 carries in his first game back from an ankle injury. There's also the issue of Dobbins' declining efficiency. He's averaged over 4.0 yards per attempt only three times in nine games this season and just once in his last seven matchups. In other words, Dobbins' value has come primarily from volume. With that now in question, it's time to change expectations.
