We're officially into the second half of the regular season, so stats are fairly well stabilized, making individual and team stats more reliable. For those looking to research picks of their own, these resources are particularly useful:
Individual player stats - https://www.rotowire.com/football/player-stats.php?view=receiving
Defense vs. Position stats- https://www.rotowire.com/football/defense-vs-pos.php?scoringtype=ppr
For those new to Underdog and looking to get in on the action, use the promo code ROTONFL at the following link for a bonus on your first deposit
Higher
Aaron Jones vs. CHI – higher than 52.5 rushing yards
The Vikings' backfield has been a true committee for the whole season, but there were signs of that changing in Week 10. Fellow RB Jordan Mason was on the field for only 25 percent of offensive snaps, and he matched a season low of five touches. On the opposite side of things, Jones earned a 70 percent offensive snap rate. The Bears' defense has been hit or miss this season, but Jones should keep his momentum in Week 11.
Khalil Shakir vs. TB – higher than 45.5 receiving yards
The first part of this selection is to make sure that Shakir suits up in Week 11 against the Buccaneers. He was limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday due to ankle and rib injuries, but he practiced in full Friday, and was removed from the injured report. At full health, this should be a matchup for Shakir to take advantage of. Tampa Bay has been a relative pass-funnel defense, as they've faced the sixth-highest pass rate over expectation this season. Also important is that TE Dalton Kincaid (knee) has been ruled out, which will open up additional targets in the offense, some of which are very likely to go to Shakir.
Noah Fant at PIT – higher than 25.5 receiving yards
The Bengals embarrassed the Steelers in Week 7, with WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins dominating targets and production. Pittsburgh isn't likely to let that happen again – to the extent they can dictate terms Sunday – which should open opportunity for peripheral options in the offense such as WR Andrei Iosivas and Fant.
Nico Collins at TEN – higher than 12.5 fantasy points
Collins had a very sluggish start to the season, and his statistical output hasn't matched expectations. That's begun to change in the last two weeks, with Collins delivering 14 receptions for 211 yards combined. More importantly, he's commanded double-digit targets in three consecutive games, after achieving that only once in his first five matchups.
As for this week, Collins will face a Titans' secondary that has been gutted due to a combination of injuries and roster moves. The Texans might try to rely on their run game due to a combination of projected game script and with QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) still sidelined. Davis Mills isn't a particularly high-level backup, but he showed the desire and ability to get the ball to Collins in Week 10.
Jameson Williams at PHI – higher than 47.5 receiving yards
Head coach Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties in Week 10 with great results, and Williams was the biggest beneficiary. Given the success, it's difficult to see Campbell turning the reins of the offense back to offensive coordinator John Morton.
In last Sunday's win over the Commanders, Williams was targeted seven times matching his second-highest total of the season while topping 100 yards for the first time since Week 2. That's not necessarily predictive of what will happen Sunday night due to a tougher matchup against the Eagles and the track record of the season, there is a clear change of circumstance to provide reason to believe Williams will remain more involved. The latter is something that the projection doesn't seem to take into account.
Lower
Cam Ward vs. HOU – lower than 192.5 passing yards
Ward remains inconsistent, but he has shown some flashes of potential in recent weeks. That's particularly true on deep passes, as he has at least three completions of 20 yards in four of his last five games. That momentum is likely to be slowed this week in a matchup against a very tough Texans' defense that has held five its last six opponents to this number or lower. Ward squared off against the unit in Week 4 and mustered only 108 yards on 26 attempts.
Puka Nacua vs. SEA – lower than 90.5 receiving yards
Making a selection against such a talented player carries obvious risk, but this is primarily about Nacua's health. Whether due to suffering an injury mid-game, or seemingly being on a pitch count due to past injury, Nacua has played nearly exactly 50 percent of offensive snaps in the last three games. He avoided the injury report this week, but his 51 percent snap rate last week suggests he's still not fully healthy.
Seattle is also a very tough matchup. The Seahawks have allowed only three receivers to reach 90 yards all season, none of which have come since Week 6. None of the pass catchers were as talented as Nacua, but the injury concern and matchup are enough for me to select lower on this projection.
Darnell Mooney vs. CAR – lower than 33.5 receiving yards
Perhaps this is the game that Mooney and Michael Penix get on the same page, but we haven't seen that all season. Mooney has only 13 receptions on 35 targets and has failed to reach this projection in five of his seven games this season. The Panthers have also done a relatively good job of limiting opponent's peripheral contributors from getting involved this season. WR Drake London should be in for a typical solid performance, but Mooney's slump is in line to continue.
